Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)     Nineteen at 02/06/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nineteen at 02/06/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nineteen at 02/06/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------                                                                                                                                                                                 Nineteen at 02/05/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nineteen at 02/04/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fytia at 02/04/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fytia at 02/04/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fytia at 02/04/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------           Fytia at 02/03/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fytia at 02/03/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fytia at 02/03/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fytia at 02/03/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 8.2% 13.6% 5.8% 7.7% 3.9% 8.7% 0.9% 8.1% 0.7% 10.3% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fytia at 02/02/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.6% 3.5% 3.6% 0.5% 0.4% 1.5% 0.5% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.0% 1.4% 1.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.3% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fytia at 02/02/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.5% 5.1% 1.7% 1.5% 1.7% 4.0% 0.3% 4.1% 0.2% 0.6% RIPA Consensus 0.7% 1.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.3% 2.7% 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 1.7% 0.2% 1.4% 0.1% 0.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% -0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.7% 2.7% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fytia at 02/02/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.0% 9.3% 6.7% 1.2% 0.7% 5.4% 0.6% 3.0% 0.0% 2.7% RIPA Consensus 7.9% 9.7% 6.1% 6.1% 6.1% 4.8% 1.6% 1.9% 0.5% 0.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 5.9% 9.5% 6.3% 4.4% 4.3% 4.9% 1.2% 2.3% 0.3% 1.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 11.9% 8.1% 7.3% 7.3% 7.3% 3.4% 1.5% 3.0% 0.4% 0.1% Logistic Regression 3.9% 11.3% 4.9% 4.9% 4.9% 6.1% 1.6% 0.9% 0.6% 0.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fytia at 02/02/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.4% 8.0% 4.3% 2.3% 1.0% 8.8% 0.7% 4.4% 1.0% 5.6% RIPA Consensus 1.8% 4.2% 1.7% 1.4% 1.0% 2.6% 0.7% 1.2% 0.3% 0.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.7% 5.4% 2.6% 1.7% 1.0% 4.6% 0.7% 2.2% 0.5% 2.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.0% 2.2% 1.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.8% 0.3% 1.7% 0.2% 0.1% Logistic Regression 1.7% 6.2% 2.4% 2.1% 1.8% 4.4% 1.1% 0.7% 0.5% 0.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fytia at 02/01/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.9% 15.6% 7.0% 3.5% 4.4% 3.6% 2.5% 5.8% 1.6% 1.0% RIPA Consensus 2.1% 4.7% 2.1% 2.0% 1.0% 2.2% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.6% 8.2% 3.7% 2.5% 2.1% 2.6% 1.2% 2.1% 0.6% 0.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.9% 2.3% 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% Logistic Regression 2.2% 7.0% 3.0% 2.7% 2.0% 4.1% 1.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fytia at 02/01/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 5.9% 17.1% 9.0% 8.3% 8.5% 15.7% 5.7% 10.6% 1.5% 1.3% RIPA Consensus 5.0% 17.2% 8.9% 8.0% 5.6% 8.6% 3.0% 2.6% 0.9% 0.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 5.3% 17.1% 8.9% 8.1% 6.5% 11.0% 3.9% 5.2% 1.1% 0.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 4.0% 11.2% 4.9% 3.0% 1.1% 2.7% 0.9% 3.2% 0.5% 0.1% Logistic Regression 6.0% 23.2% 13.0% 13.0% 10.1% 14.6% 5.1% 1.9% 1.4% 0.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fytia at 02/01/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.7% 3.5% 2.2% 3.2% 2.6% 2.7% 0.8% 3.5% 0.8% 3.4% RIPA Consensus 0.7% 4.2% 1.6% 1.2% 1.1% 2.3% 0.6% 2.9% 0.7% 1.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.7% 4.0% 1.8% 1.8% 1.5% 2.4% 0.6% 3.0% 0.7% 1.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.5% 1.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 1.0% 0.4% 4.7% 0.9% 1.4% Logistic Regression 1.0% 6.9% 2.6% 2.1% 2.1% 3.5% 0.8% 1.0% 0.4% 0.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fytia at 02/01/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 1.7% 2.0% 0.7% 0.4% 0.6% 0.5% 1.2% 0.3% 1.4% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.2% 0.9% 0.3% 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% Logistic Regression 0.2% 1.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fytia at 01/31/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.4% 4.7% 3.5% 0.7% 0.8% 1.6% 0.8% 1.5% 0.5% 1.4% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 2.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 4.0% Logistic Regression 0.2% 1.8% 0.7% 0.5% 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fytia at 01/31/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.3% 4.0% 1.0% 0.9% 1.7% 2.1% 0.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.7% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.5% 2.0% 0.7% 0.5% 0.7% 0.8% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 1.4% Logistic Regression 0.2% 1.9% 0.9% 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fytia at 01/31/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.9% 14.2% 7.3% 5.4% 5.4% 4.7% 0.9% 1.8% 0.3% 2.3% RIPA Consensus 2.3% 14.6% 10.0% 8.4% 7.3% 5.0% 0.9% 4.8% 0.6% 2.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.1% 14.4% 9.1% 7.4% 6.6% 4.9% 0.9% 3.8% 0.5% 2.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.7% 10.2% 5.6% 2.7% 1.3% 7.1% 1.2% 5.2% 0.9% 5.0% Logistic Regression 2.9% 19.0% 14.4% 14.1% 13.3% 2.9% 0.6% 4.4% 0.3% 0.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fytia at 01/31/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 22.1% 36.0% 6.3% 17.2% 5.8% 4.2% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.7% RIPA Consensus 52.2% 58.9% 56.0% 53.4% 50.3% 62.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 42.1% 51.3% 39.4% 41.3% 35.4% 42.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 68.3% 60.3% 55.2% 50.0% 46.6% 80.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 36.1% 57.6% 56.7% 56.7% 54.0% 44.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fytia at 01/30/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 43.8% 47.4% 46.4% 29.4% 13.4% 13.3% 5.8% 1.3% 0.0% 1.0% RIPA Consensus 62.5% 73.4% 72.8% 71.6% 70.9% 72.8% 39.4% 30.8% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 56.2% 64.7% 64.0% 57.5% 51.7% 52.9% 28.2% 20.9% 0.0% 0.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 75.7% 72.6% 71.3% 69.0% 69.0% 85.8% 34.7% 44.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 49.2% 74.3% 74.3% 74.3% 72.8% 59.8% 44.1% 17.1% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------                             Fytia at 01/30/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 37.8% 51.4% 46.0% 29.7% 17.9% 16.4% 6.6% 10.6% 2.4% 4.4% RIPA Consensus 76.0% 91.7% 91.7% 91.7% 86.3% 79.8% 58.6% 49.8% 29.8% 16.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 63.2% 78.3% 76.5% 71.0% 63.5% 58.6% 41.2% 36.7% 20.7% 12.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 84.7% 91.9% 91.9% 91.9% 81.1% 82.2% 51.5% 45.5% 25.0% 13.1% Logistic Regression 67.3% 91.6% 91.6% 91.6% 91.6% 77.4% 65.7% 54.1% 34.7% 20.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fytia at 01/30/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 25.4% 53.6% 55.3% 28.8% 30.2% 26.4% 10.3% 29.9% 4.0% 18.1% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nineteen at 01/30/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 18.0% 49.7% 37.3% 36.8% 39.9% 36.3% 16.4% 22.3% 8.3% 24.1% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nineteen at 01/29/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.3% 37.4% 18.3% 17.5% 22.5% 24.1% 11.9% 11.1% 5.4% 30.5% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------