Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current Twentyone intensity image current Twentyone RI diff image

 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


Twenty-One at 02/19/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Twenty-One at 02/19/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Twenty-One at 02/18/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Twenty-One at 02/18/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


 


Twenty-One at 02/18/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gezani at 02/18/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gezani at 02/17/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gezani at 02/17/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gezani at 02/17/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 4.7% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 1.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gezani at 02/17/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gezani at 02/16/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gezani at 02/16/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


Gezani at 02/16/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gezani at 02/16/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.3% 1.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 1.6% 1.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.5% 1.3% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 1.0% 1.5% 0.8% 0.7% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gezani at 02/15/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.9% 2.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 1.9% 0.9% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.1% 1.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.9% 1.3% 0.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gezani at 02/15/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.6% 1.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 1.2% 1.2% 0.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.3% 1.1% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.6% 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.7% 1.8% 0.9% 0.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gezani at 02/15/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.9% 2.2% 1.5% 0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.8% 0.8% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.1% 1.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.4% 1.1% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gezani at 02/15/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 4.2% 2.1% 1.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 1.3% 1.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.3% 1.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.9% 1.6% 0.9% 0.7% 0.4% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gezani at 02/14/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.3% 3.9% 3.6% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.4% 0.9% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.0% 1.9% 1.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.3% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.5% 1.3% 0.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gezani at 02/14/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 3.9% 5.2% 2.0% 0.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.8% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.8% 2.2% 0.9% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.6% 1.0% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gezani at 02/14/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 9.2% 8.2% 0.3% 1.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 7.3% 2.8% 2.1% 1.9% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 7.9% 4.6% 1.5% 1.5% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 11.0% 2.4% 2.4% 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 3.6% 3.2% 1.8% 1.5% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


Gezani at 02/14/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 6.9% 8.0% 3.4% 1.3% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 11.0% 6.3% 4.7% 4.6% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 9.6% 6.8% 4.3% 3.4% 2.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 14.7% 5.7% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 7.3% 6.8% 4.5% 4.1% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gezani at 02/13/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 6.1% 12.1% 1.8% 3.3% 1.1% 1.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 9.9% 8.6% 7.1% 6.8% 6.7% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 8.6% 9.7% 5.3% 5.6% 4.8% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 13.7% 8.8% 8.8% 8.8% 8.8% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 6.1% 8.5% 5.4% 4.9% 4.7% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


 


 


 


 


 


Gezani at 02/13/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 9.6% 19.5% 2.9% 6.7% 5.6% 3.2% 0.3% 0.6% 0.0% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 13.0% 12.1% 10.1% 8.7% 8.4% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 11.9% 14.5% 7.7% 8.0% 7.4% 5.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 16.6% 10.8% 10.6% 8.0% 8.0% 10.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 9.5% 13.3% 9.6% 9.3% 8.8% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


 


 


 


 


 


Gezani at 02/12/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 19.1% 28.8% 13.6% 10.0% 8.1% 8.1% 1.9% 5.6% 0.0% 1.4% RIPA Consensus 63.1% 78.9% 78.9% 78.9% 78.9% 45.8% 30.2% 18.8% 7.5% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 48.4% 62.2% 57.1% 55.9% 55.3% 33.2% 20.7% 14.3% 4.9% 0.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 74.5% 74.4% 74.4% 74.4% 74.4% 42.7% 28.3% 17.2% 5.9% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 51.8% 83.4% 83.4% 83.4% 83.4% 48.9% 32.0% 20.4% 9.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gezani at 02/12/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 20.1% 30.2% 28.8% 4.6% 2.2% 12.5% 4.9% 8.8% 0.0% 1.7% RIPA Consensus 57.9% 73.1% 71.8% 70.5% 70.3% 56.1% 41.7% 30.6% 15.5% 8.6%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 45.2% 58.8% 57.5% 48.5% 47.6% 41.5% 29.4% 23.3% 10.3% 6.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 65.4% 65.3% 62.8% 60.1% 59.7% 44.9% 30.3% 27.1% 11.1% 6.2%
Logistic Regression 50.3% 80.9% 80.9% 80.9% 80.9% 67.3% 53.0% 34.1% 20.0% 11.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gezani at 02/12/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 12.0% 28.8% 10.9% 11.2% 12.1% 16.3% 2.5% 5.9% 0.2% 8.4% RIPA Consensus 27.2% 51.7% 45.2% 41.6% 41.6% 47.3% 34.4% 32.0% 18.7% 12.8%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 22.1% 44.1% 33.7% 31.4% 31.7% 36.9% 23.7% 23.3% 12.5% 11.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 28.9% 42.3% 34.6% 27.4% 27.4% 34.2% 24.9% 34.0% 16.3% 9.4%
Logistic Regression 25.5% 61.2% 55.8% 55.8% 55.8% 60.4% 43.8% 30.0% 21.0% 16.2%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gezani at 02/11/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.6% 5.4% 1.7% 0.5% 0.2% 2.1% 0.7% 2.0% 0.1% 4.1% RIPA Consensus 1.3% 12.8% 6.7% 5.6% 4.5% 9.7% 3.5% 16.6% 5.5% 15.5%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.0% 10.3% 5.0% 3.9% 3.0% 7.2% 2.5% 11.6% 3.6% 11.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.4% 5.3% 1.9% 0.8% 0.2% 4.4% 1.7% 18.4% 6.4% 20.7%
Logistic Regression 2.3% 20.4% 11.5% 10.4% 8.8% 15.1% 5.3% 14.7% 4.6% 10.2%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gezani at 02/11/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.7% 2.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 1.0% 0.6% 0.7% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 2.7% 0.3% 20.6%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.6% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 2.1% 0.4% 13.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 3.3% 0.5% 38.2%
Logistic Regression 0.0% 1.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 2.2% 0.2% 2.9%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gezani at 02/11/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 1.1% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 1.4% 0.1% 13.3%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 9.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 1.2% 0.1% 25.6%
Logistic Regression 0.1% 1.8% 0.9% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% 1.6% 0.1% 1.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


Gezani at 02/11/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.4% 2.7% 7.9% 0.3% 0.8% 1.1% 0.3% 1.0% 0.1% 1.0% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 2.8% 2.0% 1.5% 1.1% 0.5% 0.1% 1.4% 0.1% 6.7%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.3% 2.7% 4.0% 1.0% 0.9% 0.6% 0.1% 1.2% 0.1% 4.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 12.8%
Logistic Regression 0.5% 4.9% 3.8% 3.0% 2.1% 0.6% 0.1% 2.3% 0.1% 0.6%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gezani at 02/10/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 8.6% 20.5% 0.9% 1.1% 0.7% 10.9% 0.4% 1.4% 0.0% 1.6% RIPA Consensus 3.7% 11.2% 9.2% 7.8% 6.0% 11.8% 2.1% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 5.3% 14.3% 6.4% 5.5% 4.2% 11.5% 1.5% 4.8% 0.0% 0.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 3.0% 7.4% 5.7% 3.5% 1.8% 18.1% 2.5% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 4.3% 15.1% 12.8% 12.1% 10.2% 5.5% 1.7% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gezani at 02/10/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 110 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 24.9% 31.9% 11.9% 8.6% 2.0% 5.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.6% RIPA Consensus 44.7% 43.3% 40.8% 40.7% 37.8% 59.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 38.0% 39.5% 31.2% 30.0% 25.8% 41.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 58.6% 43.0% 38.0% 37.8% 37.8% 80.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 30.7% 43.7% 43.7% 43.7% 37.8% 38.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gezani at 02/10/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 32.9% 34.9% 27.6% 15.6% 4.9% 8.8% 1.4% 1.2% 0.0% 0.8% RIPA Consensus 51.4% 50.8% 49.9% 49.9% 48.7% 59.3% 27.6% 25.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 45.2% 45.5% 42.4% 38.4% 34.1% 42.5% 18.8% 17.1% 0.0% 0.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 65.8% 48.8% 47.0% 47.0% 47.0% 75.2% 26.4% 40.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 37.0% 52.8% 52.8% 52.8% 50.4% 43.5% 28.8% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gezani at 02/10/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 38.5% 41.6% 31.7% 19.9% 7.4% 16.4% 3.1% 2.8% 0.0% 2.6% RIPA Consensus 55.3% 60.9% 60.9% 60.9% 60.9% 51.6% 28.9% 28.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 49.7% 54.4% 51.1% 47.2% 43.0% 39.9% 20.3% 19.6% 0.0% 0.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 68.5% 59.1% 59.1% 59.1% 59.1% 58.3% 27.6% 36.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 42.2% 62.7% 62.7% 62.7% 62.7% 45.0% 30.3% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gezani at 02/09/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 27.6% 39.0% 33.1% 18.0% 11.4% 25.5% 5.1% 10.5% 0.2% 7.8% RIPA Consensus 69.7% 90.0% 90.0% 90.0% 90.0% 68.2% 54.0% 51.9% 30.3% 25.9%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 55.6% 73.0% 71.0% 66.0% 63.8% 53.9% 37.6% 38.1% 20.2% 19.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 74.6% 87.9% 87.9% 87.9% 87.9% 59.1% 40.4% 43.3% 23.6% 23.0%
Logistic Regression 64.7% 92.1% 92.1% 92.1% 92.1% 77.3% 67.6% 60.5% 37.0% 28.8%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gezani at 02/09/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 21.3% 34.1% 23.9% 11.8% 9.7% 30.1% 5.9% 19.5% 0.3% 11.3% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gezani at 02/09/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 3.3% 18.8% 3.4% 6.6% 4.6% 18.9% 1.0% 7.8% 0.4% 13.7% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gezani at 02/09/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.7% 15.5% 3.6% 0.6% 0.1% 14.9% 0.9% 6.6% 0.2% 14.0% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gezani at 02/08/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 4.1% 20.5% 6.8% 5.1% 2.7% 15.3% 1.8% 19.6% 0.7% 17.4% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gezani at 02/08/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.6% 4.3% 1.1% 0.8% 0.2% 2.9% 0.5% 5.8% 0.1% 7.8% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gezani at 02/08/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.6% 2.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 1.2% 0.1% 0.8% 0.0% 7.0% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Twentyone at 02/08/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.0% 12.0% 2.1% 1.6% 1.2% 5.2% 1.2% 4.5% 0.5% 10.0% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------