Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current Twentythre intensity image current Twentythre RI diff image

 


Twenty-Three at 03/02/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
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Urmil at 03/01/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 3.8% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
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Urmil at 03/01/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Urmil at 03/01/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.7% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Urmil at 03/01/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.4% 2.2% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Urmil at 02/28/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.6% 2.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.6% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Urmil at 02/28/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.1% 3.2% 0.7% 1.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 1.9% 1.1% 7.9% RIPA Consensus 1.6% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.4% 1.5% 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 2.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.9% 0.9% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Urmil at 02/28/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 13.7% 11.1% 8.3% 1.9% 1.1% 0.9% 0.2% 8.0% 0.4% 5.9% RIPA Consensus 7.2% 6.4% 2.8% 2.5% 1.5% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 9.4% 7.9% 4.6% 2.3% 1.4% 0.7% 0.0% 2.6% 0.1% 1.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 9.7% 6.0% 2.3% 1.8% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 4.8% 6.8% 3.3% 3.3% 2.2% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Urmil at 02/28/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 11.9% 13.7% 7.0% 2.7% 2.6% 2.2% 1.5% 15.7% 0.8% 7.4% RIPA Consensus 7.2% 10.5% 5.4% 5.0% 3.2% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 8.7% 11.5% 5.9% 4.2% 3.0% 1.7% 0.7% 5.2% 0.2% 2.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 9.8% 9.4% 4.2% 3.3% 1.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 4.6% 11.5% 6.6% 6.6% 4.7% 2.4% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Urmil at 02/27/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 10.2% 14.5% 19.2% 4.2% 4.4% 2.8% 3.0% 8.5% 0.3% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 4.1% 13.1% 7.0% 6.1% 4.9% 3.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 6.1% 13.6% 11.1% 5.5% 4.7% 3.2% 1.4% 3.0% 0.1% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 4.6% 9.9% 4.8% 3.0% 1.8% 2.8% 0.4% 0.2% -0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 3.6% 16.4% 9.3% 9.3% 8.0% 4.2% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%
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Urmil at 02/27/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 15.9% 20.1% 29.1% 4.4% 5.0% 7.7% 13.2% 19.5% 0.8% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 29.1% 49.9% 40.3% 40.3% 31.3% 20.3% 8.1% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 24.6% 40.0% 36.5% 28.3% 22.5% 16.1% 9.7% 7.2% 0.2% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 35.5% 44.7% 30.7% 30.7% 16.0% 13.6% 4.7% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 22.6% 55.2% 49.9% 49.9% 46.6% 27.1% 11.4% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0%
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Urmil at 02/27/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 23.1% 34.0% 29.2% 14.5% 15.8% 21.3% 25.6% 36.4% 4.8% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 23.9% 47.4% 37.3% 37.3% 28.3% 26.5% 13.5% 1.1% 1.8% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 23.6% 42.9% 34.6% 29.7% 24.1% 24.7% 17.5% 12.8% 2.7% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 27.6% 41.0% 28.8% 28.8% 12.6% 14.5% 6.8% 2.0% 0.3% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 20.2% 53.7% 45.9% 45.9% 44.0% 38.5% 20.3% 0.3% 3.3% 0.0%
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Twentythre at 02/27/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 21.5% 38.7% 34.3% 20.8% 25.3% 28.3% 24.5% 43.5% 12.6% 0.6% RIPA Consensus 27.9% 68.3% 57.3% 54.2% 47.2% 55.9% 41.2% 12.2% 14.0% 0.4%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 25.7% 58.4% 49.6% 43.0% 39.8% 46.6% 35.6% 22.5% 13.5% 0.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 23.7% 58.6% 40.3% 34.1% 20.1% 37.8% 23.1% 17.7% 6.6% 0.1%
Logistic Regression 32.0% 78.0% 74.2% 74.2% 74.2% 74.0% 59.4% 6.6% 21.4% 0.7%
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Twentythre at 02/26/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 10.9% 30.2% 27.2% 11.0% 9.4% 18.3% 24.1% 28.3% 12.6% 1.0% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
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