Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)     Twenty-Seven at 03/28/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------         Narelle at 03/28/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------                                                       Narelle at 03/27/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Narelle at 03/27/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------       Narelle at 03/26/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 15.8% 8.1% 0.4% 3.5% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 11.6% 2.6% 0.1% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 14.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Narelle at 03/26/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 110 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 20.1% 16.5% 1.6% 7.5% 2.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 20.2% 4.3% 3.7% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 20.2% 8.3% 2.9% 4.8% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 27.8% 4.4% 4.4% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 12.7% 4.1% 2.9% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Narelle at 03/26/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 38.7% 29.9% 11.1% 24.4% 6.5% 1.1% 1.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 46.5% 24.6% 23.2% 23.2% 10.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 43.9% 26.3% 19.2% 23.6% 9.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 61.4% 27.7% 27.7% 27.7% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 31.7% 21.6% 18.8% 18.8% 13.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Narelle at 03/25/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 40.9% 39.9% 29.6% 29.6% 13.1% 3.4% 1.3% 0.9% 0.0% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 59.6% 54.0% 54.0% 54.0% 29.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 53.3% 49.3% 45.9% 45.9% 24.2% 1.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 73.1% 59.4% 59.4% 59.4% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 46.1% 48.7% 48.7% 48.7% 40.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Narelle at 03/25/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 46.5% 56.0% 51.2% 56.2% 29.0% 12.2% 7.7% 6.9% 0.5% 0.3% RIPA Consensus 68.6% 71.8% 71.8% 71.8% 56.2% 42.4% 17.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 61.2% 66.5% 64.9% 66.6% 47.1% 32.3% 14.2% 2.3% 0.1% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 80.7% 72.4% 72.4% 72.4% 44.5% 51.6% 18.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 56.5% 71.2% 71.2% 71.2% 67.9% 33.2% 16.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Narelle at 03/25/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 27.5% 50.6% 36.1% 40.4% 24.4% 19.6% 3.7% 12.3% 1.0% 0.2% RIPA Consensus 78.4% 96.6% 96.6% 96.6% 84.4% 77.9% 64.2% 28.4% 16.6% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 61.4% 81.3% 76.4% 77.8% 64.3% 58.4% 44.0% 23.0% 11.4% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 83.5% 97.6% 97.6% 97.6% 73.1% 72.8% 53.7% 25.2% 10.5% 0.0% Logistic Regression 73.4% 95.7% 95.7% 95.7% 95.7% 83.0% 74.8% 31.6% 22.7% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Narelle at 03/25/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 20.1% 48.6% 45.9% 27.4% 16.6% 23.1% 12.8% 25.4% 4.2% 1.1% RIPA Consensus 42.8% 81.9% 78.1% 78.1% 56.5% 72.3% 59.2% 43.7% 28.7% 4.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 35.2% 70.7% 67.3% 61.2% 43.2% 55.9% 43.7% 37.6% 20.5% 3.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 40.3% 75.4% 67.9% 67.9% 25.6% 60.6% 42.2% 40.7% 22.3% 0.6% Logistic Regression 45.3% 88.3% 88.3% 88.3% 87.5% 84.1% 76.2% 46.7% 35.1% 7.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Narelle at 03/24/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 16.0% 47.2% 39.2% 28.9% 17.1% 29.3% 16.8% 28.6% 8.3% 6.9% RIPA Consensus 28.8% 67.4% 62.1% 62.1% 40.7% 60.5% 49.3% 45.6% 29.4% 7.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 24.5% 60.6% 54.4% 51.0% 32.8% 50.1% 38.5% 39.9% 22.4% 7.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 24.1% 57.4% 49.1% 49.1% 10.3% 43.0% 31.0% 37.7% 20.5% 0.8% Logistic Regression 33.6% 77.4% 75.1% 75.1% 71.1% 78.0% 67.7% 53.4% 38.4% 14.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Narelle at 03/24/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 15.6% 44.1% 55.4% 30.1% 19.6% 28.6% 22.9% 35.4% 18.9% 16.5% RIPA Consensus 18.6% 59.0% 48.2% 48.2% 32.8% 55.4% 44.8% 46.7% 31.4% 18.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 17.6% 54.0% 50.6% 42.1% 28.4% 46.5% 37.5% 42.9% 27.2% 17.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 14.7% 47.8% 32.6% 32.6% 7.0% 36.1% 26.8% 40.3% 22.6% 7.0% Logistic Regression 22.6% 70.2% 63.8% 63.8% 58.7% 74.8% 62.9% 53.1% 40.2% 29.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Narelle at 03/24/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.6% 39.6% 34.2% 23.5% 17.1% 26.0% 10.4% 30.8% 15.6% 20.1% RIPA Consensus 5.5% 30.5% 19.2% 17.7% 12.7% 35.1% 22.3% 33.5% 18.6% 16.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 5.1% 33.5% 24.1% 19.6% 14.1% 32.0% 18.3% 32.5% 17.5% 17.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 4.3% 19.6% 11.7% 9.1% 1.7% 21.0% 14.7% 33.6% 17.5% 10.8% Logistic Regression 6.7% 41.4% 26.6% 26.3% 23.6% 49.2% 29.9% 33.3% 19.6% 21.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------         Narelle at 03/24/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.9% 13.4% 9.3% 7.0% 5.4% 7.1% 2.5% 12.0% 7.7% 11.8% RIPA Consensus 1.5% 15.8% 8.3% 7.3% 5.6% 20.8% 10.4% 23.9% 11.5% 21.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.3% 15.0% 8.6% 7.2% 5.5% 16.2% 7.8% 19.9% 10.2% 18.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.8% 7.3% 3.6% 2.6% 0.3% 9.9% 5.8% 23.4% 10.5% 19.0% Logistic Regression 2.2% 24.3% 12.9% 12.0% 10.9% 31.6% 15.1% 24.5% 12.5% 23.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Narelle at 03/23/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.1% 20.4% 10.5% 1.9% 1.8% 7.7% 4.0% 13.8% 11.2% 25.4% RIPA Consensus 1.0% 12.5% 6.4% 6.0% 3.9% 18.1% 8.5% 21.0% 8.9% 28.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.4% 15.1% 7.8% 4.6% 3.1% 14.6% 6.9% 18.5% 9.6% 27.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.3% 4.6% 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 6.5% 3.2% 17.8% 6.8% 25.5% Logistic Regression 1.8% 20.3% 11.1% 10.3% 7.7% 29.8% 13.7% 24.2% 11.0% 30.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Narelle at 03/23/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.6% 24.7% 21.7% 4.9% 3.6% 6.1% 4.2% 13.2% 11.5% 19.2% RIPA Consensus 0.8% 9.3% 4.3% 3.8% 2.6% 12.9% 5.2% 17.8% 7.1% 29.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.7% 14.4% 10.0% 4.2% 2.9% 10.6% 4.8% 16.3% 8.5% 26.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.3% 3.3% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 4.9% 2.3% 16.8% 6.2% 29.6% Logistic Regression 1.4% 15.4% 7.5% 6.7% 5.1% 20.9% 8.2% 18.9% 8.0% 30.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Narelle at 03/23/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 9.7% 22.9% 10.3% 6.8% 4.1% 11.3% 2.5% 6.3% 5.5% 16.6% RIPA Consensus 3.0% 20.2% 11.1% 10.1% 7.2% 20.8% 10.5% 22.4% 11.2% 31.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 5.2% 21.0% 10.8% 9.0% 6.1% 17.6% 7.8% 17.0% 9.2% 26.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.3% 11.7% 5.8% 3.9% 0.9% 7.8% 4.3% 18.8% 7.4% 25.7% Logistic Regression 3.7% 28.6% 16.3% 16.3% 13.5% 33.8% 16.8% 26.1% 14.9% 37.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Narelle at 03/23/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.3% 6.1% 4.0% 2.9% 2.4% 1.8% 0.5% 5.2% 4.6% 13.6% RIPA Consensus 1.1% 9.8% 4.0% 3.2% 2.7% 10.3% 3.7% 11.8% 4.8% 25.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.2% 8.5% 4.0% 3.1% 2.6% 7.4% 2.6% 9.6% 4.7% 21.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.7% 4.2% 1.6% 0.5% 0.5% 3.4% 1.5% 9.9% 3.1% 23.6% Logistic Regression 1.6% 15.3% 6.5% 5.9% 4.9% 17.2% 5.9% 13.7% 6.5% 26.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Narelle at 03/22/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.4% 6.7% 3.1% 1.9% 1.6% 0.9% 0.4% 2.3% 4.2% 9.1% RIPA Consensus 0.5% 5.2% 1.9% 1.6% 1.2% 6.0% 1.9% 8.0% 2.5% 22.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.4% 5.6% 2.3% 1.6% 1.3% 4.3% 1.3% 6.0% 3.0% 18.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 1.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 2.0% 0.8% 7.2% 1.9% 27.0% Logistic Regression 0.8% 8.7% 3.4% 2.9% 2.4% 10.0% 2.9% 8.7% 3.1% 18.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Narelle at 03/22/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.3% 7.2% 3.2% 0.4% 0.5% 0.8% 0.5% 1.7% 2.3% 4.9% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.9% 0.7% 0.5% 0.3% 1.3% 0.3% 2.1% 0.4% 13.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 3.6% 1.5% 0.4% 0.3% 1.1% 0.3% 1.9% 1.0% 10.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 18.4% Logistic Regression 0.2% 3.3% 1.3% 1.0% 0.6% 2.4% 0.5% 3.5% 0.7% 8.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Narelle at 03/22/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.6% 3.9% 2.0% 0.3% 0.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.7% 2.3% 1.6% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.6% 0.0% 6.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.6% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.6% 0.7% 5.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 11.8% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 1.1% 0.1% 2.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Narelle at 03/22/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.8% 13.0% 6.8% 4.7% 3.5% 8.4% 1.8% 6.8% 3.6% 6.9% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.6% 0.8% 0.5% 0.4% 0.7% 0.1% 1.1% 0.1% 4.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.3% 5.4% 2.7% 1.9% 1.4% 3.2% 0.7% 3.0% 1.3% 5.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 7.6% Logistic Regression 0.2% 2.8% 1.3% 1.1% 0.7% 1.0% 0.2% 2.0% 0.2% 2.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Narelle at 03/21/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 10.9% 30.9% 20.2% 13.5% 15.0% 16.5% 2.8% 6.0% 1.8% 7.3% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A 0.3% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 6.5% 19.6% 13.6% 10.8% 10.5% 9.7% 1.9% 4.1% 0.8% 3.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A 0.6% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Narelle at 03/21/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 11.8% 34.4% 43.9% 25.2% 17.8% 21.8% 10.4% 9.4% 1.6% 4.5% RIPA Consensus 13.5% 24.8% 20.7% 20.7% 15.0% 14.6% 3.8% 4.2% 0.8% 1.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 12.9% 28.0% 28.4% 22.1% 15.9% 17.0% 6.0% 5.9% 1.1% 2.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 17.6% 21.5% 16.5% 16.5% 9.4% 17.0% 3.7% 0.8% 0.1% 0.4% Logistic Regression 9.4% 28.1% 24.8% 24.8% 20.5% 12.3% 4.0% 7.6% 1.6% 3.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Narelle at 03/21/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 15.5% 38.1% 42.2% 38.6% 18.4% 24.9% 8.5% 13.5% 3.8% 4.7% RIPA Consensus 22.0% 30.1% 25.1% 25.1% 19.9% 18.3% 5.3% 5.0% 1.1% 2.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 31.6% 28.1% 22.1% 22.1% 15.8% 21.3% 5.2% 2.1% 0.2% 1.5% Logistic Regression 12.4% 32.0% 28.2% 28.2% 24.0% 15.4% 5.3% 7.8% 2.0% 3.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Narelle at 03/21/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 7.4% 21.0% 12.0% 15.1% 10.7% 12.5% 2.2% 9.2% 2.9% 6.2% RIPA Consensus 3.2% 8.7% 5.1% 4.3% 3.7% 3.0% 0.5% 1.8% 0.2% 2.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.6% 12.7% 7.3% 7.8% 6.0% 6.1% 1.1% 4.2% 1.1% 3.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 4.2% 6.7% 4.0% 2.4% 2.4% 3.2% 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% 3.2% Logistic Regression 2.2% 10.7% 6.2% 6.2% 5.0% 2.7% 0.6% 3.1% 0.4% 1.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Narelle at 03/20/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.3% 2.0% 1.4% 0.5% 0.4% 0.6% 0.2% 1.3% 0.3% 4.4% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.3% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.6% 0.0% 1.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% Logistic Regression 0.2% 1.5% 0.7% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Narelle at 03/20/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.9% 16.1% 17.7% 6.2% 4.0% 1.9% 0.6% 0.6% 1.1% 1.7% RIPA Consensus 0.3% 1.3% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.4% 6.2% 6.3% 2.3% 1.5% 0.9% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.2% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.9% Logistic Regression 0.3% 2.0% 1.0% 0.8% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Narelle at 03/20/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.6% 12.4% 7.7% 3.0% 3.1% 1.0% 0.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.7% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Narelle at 03/20/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.7% 10.1% 9.8% 4.3% 5.5% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 1.0% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.5% 3.5% 3.4% 1.4% 1.8% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Narelle at 03/19/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 120 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 8.9% 14.4% 9.8% 11.5% 3.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% RIPA Consensus 1.0% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.6% 5.2% 3.5% 3.8% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.5% 0.9% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Narelle at 03/19/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 125 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 24.8% 28.5% 1.2% 5.9% 3.7% 6.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 7.2% 2.5% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 13.0% 11.1% 1.5% 1.9% 1.2% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 12.1% 2.6% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.2% 2.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Narelle at 03/19/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 125 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 32.7% 25.9% 6.7% 14.4% 5.0% 3.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 17.4% 6.0% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 22.5% 12.6% 5.1% 4.8% 1.6% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 29.7% 7.3% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 5.1% 4.7% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Narelle at 03/19/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 41.4% 39.0% 40.8% 38.1% 16.3% 12.2% 3.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% RIPA Consensus 27.5% 14.7% 11.0% 11.0% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 32.1% 22.7% 20.9% 20.0% 10.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 45.1% 17.3% 13.7% 13.7% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 9.9% 12.1% 8.3% 8.3% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Narelle at 03/18/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 39.5% 46.9% 50.8% 35.9% 17.0% 27.4% 8.4% 2.8% 0.9% 1.7% RIPA Consensus 34.7% 30.0% 23.6% 23.6% 17.2% 26.5% 4.4% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 36.3% 35.6% 32.6% 27.7% 17.1% 26.7% 5.7% 2.8% 0.3% 0.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 54.9% 33.7% 26.3% 26.3% 19.0% 41.0% 4.7% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 14.5% 26.3% 21.0% 21.0% 15.4% 11.9% 4.2% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Narelle at 03/18/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 40.8% 48.1% 48.3% 34.4% 23.8% 26.2% 7.3% 4.0% 0.6% 1.9% RIPA Consensus 43.3% 42.0% 34.6% 34.6% 29.4% 28.8% 7.3% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 42.5% 44.0% 39.1% 34.5% 27.5% 27.9% 7.3% 3.4% 0.1% 0.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 63.7% 45.7% 36.2% 36.2% 30.7% 39.9% 8.2% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 23.0% 38.4% 33.1% 33.1% 28.2% 17.7% 6.5% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Narelle at 03/18/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 37.1% 48.6% 53.1% 37.4% 18.2% 40.3% 19.4% 19.1% 6.0% 6.5% RIPA Consensus 41.7% 58.1% 51.5% 51.3% 46.3% 27.6% 10.3% 5.7% 1.1% 1.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 40.1% 54.9% 52.0% 46.6% 36.9% 31.8% 13.3% 10.1% 2.7% 3.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 54.6% 56.7% 44.7% 44.4% 36.6% 30.7% 11.4% 1.8% 0.2% 0.2% Logistic Regression 28.8% 59.6% 58.3% 58.3% 55.9% 24.5% 9.3% 9.6% 2.0% 2.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------     Narelle at 03/17/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 26.0% 55.5% 53.9% 47.8% 27.5% 45.4% 32.8% 27.5% 12.2% 10.4% RIPA Consensus 27.8% 53.4% 47.1% 47.1% 32.4% 33.2% 15.9% 14.7% 4.6% 3.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 27.1% 54.0% 49.4% 47.3% 30.7% 37.3% 21.5% 18.9% 7.1% 6.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 32.2% 48.6% 40.0% 40.0% 15.0% 29.6% 14.1% 10.7% 3.0% 1.8% Logistic Regression 23.3% 58.1% 54.3% 54.3% 49.8% 36.9% 17.8% 18.7% 6.2% 6.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Narelle at 03/17/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 36.2% 58.3% 61.7% 52.7% 38.0% 44.1% 30.5% 40.6% 12.1% 14.4% RIPA Consensus 35.1% 57.9% 53.0% 53.0% 36.7% 43.6% 26.6% 20.9% 9.2% 6.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 35.4% 58.0% 55.8% 52.8% 37.1% 43.7% 27.9% 27.4% 10.1% 9.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 41.6% 52.1% 46.0% 46.0% 18.7% 33.3% 19.4% 14.8% 4.8% 2.5% Logistic Regression 28.5% 63.7% 59.9% 59.9% 54.8% 53.9% 33.9% 27.0% 13.5% 10.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Twentyseve at 03/17/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 20.6% 51.9% 42.1% 30.9% 15.4% 39.2% 13.6% 36.0% 5.2% 20.5% RIPA Consensus 15.5% 40.5% 29.6% 29.6% 18.6% 33.4% 19.5% 21.7% 11.4% 14.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 17.2% 44.2% 33.7% 30.0% 17.5% 35.3% 17.5% 26.4% 9.3% 16.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 16.9% 33.8% 23.1% 23.1% 6.8% 18.8% 10.7% 17.1% 6.0% 7.5% Logistic Regression 14.1% 47.2% 36.1% 36.1% 30.4% 48.1% 28.3% 26.2% 16.8% 22.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Twentyseve at 03/17/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 9.5% 33.8% 37.5% 19.3% 11.3% 35.1% 15.5% 45.6% 17.7% 29.8% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------