Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current Thirty intensity image current Thirty RI diff image

 


Thirty at 04/13/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 1.3% 0.1% 0.9% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Maila at 04/12/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.5% 2.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.9% 0.1% 0.4% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Maila at 04/12/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.5% 2.1% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.4% 0.7% 0.1% 1.6% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Maila at 04/12/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.0% 3.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.8% 0.3% 2.8% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Maila at 04/11/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.0% 4.1% 1.7% 1.3% 0.5% 1.5% 0.5% 3.5% 1.1% 16.1% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Maila at 04/11/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.1% 3.8% 5.5% 2.6% 0.9% 1.3% 1.4% 6.2% 1.1% 7.3% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Maila at 04/11/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.5% 1.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 2.5% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Maila at 04/11/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.4% 2.1% 1.3% 0.6% 0.3% 0.7% 0.6% 1.8% 0.5% 5.4% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Maila at 04/10/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 2.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.7% 0.4% 0.3% 1.0% 1.0% 2.7% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Maila at 04/10/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 1.6% 1.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.6% 0.3% 0.9% 0.3% 3.9% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 2.6%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 3.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 4.9%
Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Maila at 04/10/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.4% 2.7% 1.8% 0.8% 1.1% 1.6% 0.6% 1.0% 0.2% 3.5% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A 0.5% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 1.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Logistic Regression N/A N/A 1.1% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Maila at 04/10/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.8% 12.2% 9.3% 3.4% 5.3% 12.1% 3.1% 6.1% 1.5% 3.9% RIPA Consensus 0.4% 1.4% 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.5%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.2% 5.0% 3.4% 1.4% 2.0% 4.2% 1.0% 2.1% 0.5% 1.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.5% 0.9% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7%
Logistic Regression 0.3% 1.9% 0.7% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.2%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Maila at 04/09/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 9.4% 15.5% 10.2% 3.4% 4.5% 9.6% 3.8% 5.6% 4.5% 2.5% RIPA Consensus 0.5% 1.8% 0.7% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 1.2%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.4% 6.3% 3.8% 1.4% 1.7% 3.3% 1.3% 2.0% 1.5% 1.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.5% 1.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 2.1%
Logistic Regression 0.5% 2.3% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.2%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Maila at 04/09/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.4% 5.9% 6.7% 3.0% 3.0% 7.5% 3.1% 3.9% 0.9% 1.6% RIPA Consensus 0.8% 1.1% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.3% 2.7% 2.5% 1.2% 1.2% 2.9% 1.0% 1.3% 0.3% 0.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.0% 0.8% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 1.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Logistic Regression 0.5% 1.5% 0.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Maila at 04/09/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 6.8% 16.1% 7.8% 7.7% 3.0% 11.7% 1.1% 1.0% 0.2% 0.6% RIPA Consensus 5.8% 5.7% 3.8% 2.5% 2.3% 12.4% 0.6% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 6.1% 9.1% 5.1% 4.2% 2.5% 12.1% 0.8% 3.6% 0.0% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 9.6% 6.8% 5.3% 3.2% 3.2% 23.6% 1.1% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 2.1% 4.6% 2.2% 1.8% 1.3% 1.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Maila at 04/09/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 17.3% 26.8% 18.7% 26.4% 14.0% 13.5% 3.5% 1.4% 0.2% 1.0% RIPA Consensus 3.9% 6.6% 4.0% 2.6% 2.2% 10.8% 0.5% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 8.3% 13.2% 8.9% 10.5% 6.1% 11.7% 1.5% 2.1% 0.0% 0.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 5.8% 7.3% 4.7% 2.6% 2.6% 20.4% 0.8% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 2.0% 5.8% 3.3% 2.7% 1.8% 1.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Maila at 04/08/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 110 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 17.7% 24.4% 16.9% 10.7% 8.7% 17.7% 3.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.7% RIPA Consensus 6.7% 6.7% 4.5% 3.7% 3.3% 19.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 10.3% 12.6% 8.6% 6.0% 5.1% 18.8% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 10.5% 8.0% 6.0% 5.1% 5.1% 37.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 2.8% 5.4% 3.1% 2.4% 1.5% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Maila at 04/08/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 21.0% 25.5% 18.7% 17.0% 13.8% 21.1% 4.8% 1.7% 0.5% 0.6% RIPA Consensus 1.9% 3.0% 1.5% 1.2% 1.0% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 8.3% 10.4% 7.2% 6.4% 5.3% 13.6% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.8% 3.3% 1.7% 1.5% 1.5% 19.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 1.1% 2.6% 1.3% 0.9% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Maila at 04/08/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 6.7% 14.9% 11.0% 3.3% 4.0% 7.1% 3.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.4% RIPA Consensus 1.8% 1.8% 1.2% 0.7% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.4% 6.1% 4.5% 1.5% 1.7% 2.3% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.6% 1.7% 1.4% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 1.1% 1.9% 1.1% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Maila at 04/08/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 11.8% 27.4% 10.2% 8.3% 4.5% 7.0% 2.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.5% RIPA Consensus 7.1% 6.5% 5.1% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 8.6% 13.4% 6.8% 4.3% 1.5% 2.3% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 10.8% 7.5% 6.6% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 3.4% 5.5% 3.7% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Maila at 04/07/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 125 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 30.0% 36.5% 14.1% 19.7% 9.7% 6.9% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% RIPA Consensus 29.1% 20.0% 17.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 29.4% 25.5% 16.0% 6.5% 3.2% 2.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 46.4% 24.5% 22.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 11.8% 15.5% 11.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Maila at 04/07/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 110 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 30.8% 48.7% 26.5% 17.5% 9.6% 12.2% 2.9% 0.6% 0.0% 0.6% RIPA Consensus 53.6% 54.0% 48.4% 47.6% 45.0% 63.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 46.0% 52.2% 41.1% 37.5% 33.1% 46.3% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 73.2% 61.6% 58.2% 56.5% 56.5% 95.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 34.0% 46.3% 38.6% 38.6% 33.4% 31.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Maila at 04/07/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 33.9% 38.4% 15.3% 34.1% 13.5% 15.5% 3.9% 0.3% 0.0% 1.2% RIPA Consensus 41.4% 56.3% 48.2% 45.6% 42.3% 55.2% 19.0% 26.7% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 38.9% 50.3% 37.2% 41.7% 32.6% 41.9% 13.9% 17.8% 0.0% 0.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 56.6% 60.9% 50.1% 44.8% 44.8% 81.4% 25.2% 48.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 26.2% 51.8% 46.4% 46.4% 39.7% 29.0% 12.8% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Maila at 04/07/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 34.5% 43.1% 40.9% 30.4% 12.5% 25.6% 8.7% 6.4% 1.2% 3.0% RIPA Consensus 15.0% 35.3% 29.5% 25.6% 20.2% 30.8% 10.6% 22.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 21.5% 37.9% 33.3% 27.2% 17.6% 29.1% 9.9% 16.8% 0.3% 1.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 15.0% 31.7% 22.3% 14.8% 12.2% 44.3% 14.2% 34.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 15.0% 38.9% 36.7% 36.4% 28.2% 17.4% 7.0% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Maila at 04/06/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 31.1% 37.2% 35.1% 33.2% 25.2% 24.6% 8.7% 6.7% 0.6% 4.4% RIPA Consensus 14.9% 29.9% 25.4% 20.9% 18.4% 28.7% 10.4% 23.2% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 20.3% 32.3% 28.6% 25.0% 20.6% 27.3% 9.8% 17.6% 0.1% 1.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 17.5% 27.9% 23.2% 15.1% 14.4% 42.6% 15.0% 38.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 12.3% 31.9% 27.6% 26.8% 22.4% 14.8% 5.8% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0%
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Maila at 04/06/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 38.8% 43.4% 48.7% 34.6% 19.4% 27.9% 19.7% 5.8% 0.3% 2.4% RIPA Consensus 33.7% 44.6% 39.4% 36.3% 32.5% 47.5% 20.9% 26.7% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 35.4% 44.1% 42.4% 35.6% 28.1% 40.9% 20.4% 19.7% 0.0% 0.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 46.9% 45.6% 38.7% 32.5% 32.5% 64.3% 25.7% 44.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 20.5% 43.6% 40.0% 40.0% 32.5% 30.8% 16.0% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0%
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Maila at 04/06/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 24.6% 36.8% 40.1% 43.4% 23.6% 30.5% 12.0% 12.3% 3.3% 7.4% RIPA Consensus 11.5% 24.8% 19.0% 15.8% 14.1% 19.8% 5.5% 11.6% 0.0% 5.2%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 15.8% 28.7% 26.0% 24.9% 17.2% 23.3% 7.7% 11.8% 1.0% 5.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 14.8% 24.1% 18.8% 12.6% 12.6% 29.9% 8.1% 17.7% 0.0% 8.1%
Logistic Regression 8.1% 25.4% 19.2% 18.9% 15.6% 9.7% 3.0% 5.6% 0.0% 2.4%
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Maila at 04/06/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 17.0% 37.5% 26.7% 29.1% 18.4% 26.2% 6.1% 2.8% 1.5% 4.6% RIPA Consensus 21.6% 31.8% 27.0% 27.0% 26.9% 29.3% 9.6% 22.6% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 20.0% 33.6% 26.9% 27.7% 24.0% 28.2% 8.4% 15.9% 0.5% 1.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 33.3% 35.6% 35.6% 35.6% 35.6% 46.2% 15.3% 41.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 9.9% 28.0% 18.5% 18.4% 18.3% 12.4% 3.8% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Maila at 04/05/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 37.5% 50.0% 47.8% 34.7% 17.0% 27.9% 11.0% 6.5% 0.5% 3.6% RIPA Consensus 58.2% 64.6% 62.6% 60.7% 58.7% 57.9% 28.7% 30.5% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 51.3% 59.7% 57.6% 52.0% 44.8% 47.9% 22.8% 22.5% 0.1% 1.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 75.2% 66.7% 64.5% 60.8% 60.8% 71.1% 31.2% 46.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 41.2% 62.5% 60.6% 60.6% 56.6% 44.8% 26.3% 15.1% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Maila at 04/05/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 34.3% 43.9% 34.3% 27.6% 19.4% 36.0% 14.8% 19.1% 2.3% 10.0% RIPA Consensus 53.7% 74.8% 72.1% 69.3% 62.6% 48.0% 27.2% 35.4% 14.5% 23.9%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 47.1% 64.4% 59.4% 55.3% 48.2% 43.9% 23.0% 30.0% 10.4% 19.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 66.5% 73.7% 68.3% 62.7% 51.6% 50.0% 29.5% 39.3% 19.1% 32.4%
Logistic Regression 40.8% 75.8% 75.8% 75.8% 73.7% 45.9% 24.9% 31.6% 10.0% 15.4%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Maila at 04/05/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 25.0% 37.4% 32.6% 31.2% 16.2% 33.7% 12.3% 25.0% 6.6% 18.1% RIPA Consensus 26.6% 63.6% 53.1% 49.5% 41.1% 41.7% 21.8% 36.3% 15.8% 27.6%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 26.0% 54.8% 46.2% 43.3% 32.8% 39.0% 18.6% 32.5% 12.7% 24.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 29.6% 59.8% 42.5% 35.3% 23.0% 40.4% 21.9% 41.2% 20.6% 38.0%
Logistic Regression 23.7% 67.4% 63.6% 63.6% 59.2% 43.1% 21.8% 31.4% 11.0% 17.2%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Maila at 04/05/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 17.3% 37.7% 27.2% 18.3% 12.6% 32.0% 15.6% 20.0% 5.5% 18.2% RIPA Consensus 50.6% 73.6% 68.1% 67.1% 54.2% 53.0% 32.4% 40.4% 20.5% 41.5%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 39.5% 61.6% 54.4% 50.8% 40.3% 45.9% 26.7% 33.6% 15.4% 33.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 62.7% 72.3% 64.0% 62.0% 38.9% 48.6% 29.5% 47.9% 25.2% 60.2%
Logistic Regression 38.5% 75.0% 72.2% 72.2% 69.5% 57.3% 35.2% 32.9% 15.7% 22.8%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Maila at 04/04/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 13.6% 35.9% 26.6% 9.8% 8.0% 26.9% 12.4% 30.3% 15.5% 22.8% RIPA Consensus 26.2% 71.3% 57.9% 53.6% 42.8% 63.8% 45.6% 50.2% 32.5% 54.2%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 22.0% 59.5% 47.4% 39.0% 31.2% 51.5% 34.5% 43.6% 26.8% 43.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 25.5% 65.9% 45.2% 36.6% 19.7% 52.1% 32.4% 48.0% 26.3% 59.8%
Logistic Regression 26.9% 76.8% 70.6% 70.6% 65.9% 75.5% 58.8% 52.5% 38.7% 48.6%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Thirty at 04/04/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.7% 15.0% 17.3% 2.1% 2.1% 15.6% 8.5% 18.1% 8.4% 36.4% RIPA Consensus 9.8% 36.6% 21.7% 16.9% 16.3% 36.6% 19.0% 38.5% 20.4% 50.1%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 7.4% 29.3% 20.2% 11.9% 11.5% 29.5% 15.4% 31.7% 16.4% 45.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 9.8% 29.8% 17.9% 8.8% 8.8% 31.8% 18.9% 48.8% 25.1% 62.6%
Logistic Regression 9.8% 43.3% 25.5% 24.9% 23.8% 41.4% 19.0% 28.2% 15.7% 37.7%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Thirty at 04/04/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 4.1% 19.0% 19.1% 7.6% 6.1% 20.3% 9.8% 22.1% 10.4% 31.7% RIPA Consensus 12.5% 45.5% 28.3% 22.9% 21.1% 43.6% 26.3% 42.0% 25.9% 55.5%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 12.0% 37.5% 22.7% 11.9% 9.6% 33.2% 22.1% 49.5% 25.5% 61.6%
Logistic Regression 13.0% 53.4% 33.9% 33.9% 32.6% 54.1% 30.5% 34.4% 26.3% 49.4%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Thirty at 04/04/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 3.8% 18.4% 28.8% 6.4% 8.2% 20.0% 11.5% 26.6% 19.8% 37.5% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
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