Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current Thirtyone intensity image current Thirtyone RI diff image

 


Thirty-One at 04/12/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.5% 2.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 1.6% 0.3% 8.8% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Thirty-One at 04/12/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 1.7% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 2.3% 0.8% 8.9% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Thirty-One at 04/11/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.1% 0.1% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


 


Thirty-One at 04/11/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


 


 


Thirty-One at 04/11/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


Thirty-One at 04/10/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Thirty-One at 04/10/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Thirty-One at 04/10/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


Vaianu at 04/09/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Vaianu at 04/09/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Vaianu at 04/08/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Vaianu at 04/08/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Vaianu at 04/08/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Vaianu at 04/08/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Vaianu at 04/07/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.4% 0.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Vaianu at 04/07/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 3.5% 2.2% 1.8% 1.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.3% 0.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Vaianu at 04/07/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 10.1% 8.6% 2.9% 1.0% 0.9% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 1.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.6% 3.2% 1.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 3.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.8% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Vaianu at 04/07/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 17.9% 16.7% 8.3% 3.2% 2.4% 0.9% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 10.3% 3.4% 2.0% 1.8% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 12.8% 7.8% 4.1% 2.2% 1.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 16.5% 3.8% 2.7% 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 4.1% 3.1% 1.4% 1.4% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Vaianu at 04/06/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 26.2% 28.0% 20.3% 19.2% 7.6% 1.7% 0.4% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Vaianu at 04/06/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 27.1% 37.2% 41.6% 17.7% 10.5% 5.1% 2.2% 2.8% 0.2% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 33.7% 31.3% 24.5% 24.5% 18.2% 17.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 31.5% 33.3% 30.2% 22.2% 15.6% 13.6% 0.7% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 51.4% 34.1% 25.9% 25.9% 17.8% 28.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 16.0% 28.6% 23.1% 23.1% 18.7% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Vaianu at 04/06/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 33.5% 45.4% 43.1% 22.7% 11.1% 8.4% 4.4% 5.6% 0.1% 0.2% RIPA Consensus 35.5% 45.8% 37.8% 37.1% 30.9% 27.2% 6.3% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 34.8% 45.6% 39.6% 32.3% 24.2% 20.9% 5.7% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 53.3% 48.9% 37.9% 36.4% 28.2% 38.3% 7.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 17.7% 42.7% 37.8% 37.8% 33.5% 16.2% 5.7% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Vaianu at 04/06/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 37.3% 52.2% 52.1% 30.7% 22.6% 22.8% 19.9% 18.0% 2.0% 0.8% RIPA Consensus 70.4% 88.6% 88.6% 87.8% 87.6% 77.5% 53.4% 42.7% 24.5% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 59.4% 76.5% 76.4% 68.7% 65.9% 59.2% 42.2% 34.4% 16.9% 0.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 81.3% 87.7% 87.7% 86.0% 85.6% 81.8% 48.5% 45.0% 24.4% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 59.6% 89.6% 89.6% 89.6% 89.6% 73.3% 58.3% 40.3% 24.5% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Vaianu at 04/05/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 26.8% 54.7% 48.0% 40.3% 30.3% 37.1% 21.1% 17.3% 2.2% 1.8% RIPA Consensus 70.1% 84.3% 84.3% 82.6% 81.6% 59.7% 35.1% 28.0% 11.1% 2.8%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 55.6% 74.4% 72.2% 68.5% 64.4% 52.1% 30.4% 24.4% 8.1% 2.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 82.4% 84.1% 84.1% 80.6% 78.5% 62.6% 35.5% 28.4% 10.8% 2.3%
Logistic Regression 57.8% 84.6% 84.6% 84.6% 84.6% 56.7% 34.7% 27.6% 11.3% 3.3%
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Thirtyone at 04/05/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 24.3% 56.1% 47.8% 35.6% 24.6% 40.1% 24.6% 41.8% 8.7% 4.8% RIPA Consensus 53.0% 78.6% 70.9% 66.1% 59.8% 63.3% 44.6% 43.8% 28.0% 13.8%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 43.4% 71.1% 63.1% 55.9% 48.0% 55.5% 37.9% 43.1% 21.5% 10.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 57.4% 75.0% 62.3% 52.6% 41.4% 52.0% 31.3% 42.1% 21.9% 10.3%
Logistic Regression 48.7% 82.3% 79.5% 79.5% 78.2% 74.6% 57.9% 45.6% 34.0% 17.3%
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Thirtyone at 04/05/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 25.1% 54.0% 42.4% 26.4% 17.1% 40.2% 26.4% 45.1% 10.7% 13.9% RIPA Consensus 44.8% 78.2% 70.2% 63.5% 56.2% 60.7% 42.8% 48.0% 32.7% 29.5%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 38.2% 70.1% 60.9% 51.1% 43.1% 53.8% 37.3% 47.0% 25.3% 24.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 48.6% 74.7% 63.8% 50.4% 35.8% 48.7% 31.1% 47.8% 25.1% 22.2%
Logistic Regression 41.1% 81.7% 76.6% 76.6% 76.6% 72.7% 54.6% 48.2% 40.3% 36.8%
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Thirtyone at 04/05/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 9.6% 48.8% 27.7% 22.5% 13.7% 34.7% 18.9% 34.8% 8.3% 26.1% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
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