Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)                                   Nokaen at 01/21/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 1.6% 0.2% 1.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------                                                             Nokaen at 01/21/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 1.1% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nokaen at 01/21/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.8% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nokaen at 01/20/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 1.3% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.7% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nokaen at 01/20/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% 0.2% 1.8% 0.3% 0.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 1.2% 0.1% 0.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 3.4% 0.5% 1.0% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 1.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nokaen at 01/20/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.9% 0.2% 1.5% 0.3% 1.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 1.0% 0.2% 0.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 2.7% 0.4% 1.1% Logistic Regression 0.3% 1.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 1.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nokaen at 01/20/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 2.7% 0.5% 2.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 1.8% 0.3% 1.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 4.5% 0.9% 4.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nokaen at 01/19/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 3.6% 0.8% 1.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 2.4% 0.5% 1.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 5.7% 1.4% 2.5% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 1.0% 0.2% 1.4% 0.2% 0.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nokaen at 01/19/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.4% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 1.8% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 2.2% 0.4% 2.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 3.6% 0.8% 3.5% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nokaen at 01/19/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 5.6% 11.0% 6.3% 2.5% 2.1% 4.0% 1.2% 1.5% 0.7% 0.5% RIPA Consensus 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.0% 3.9% 2.2% 0.9% 0.7% 1.5% 0.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nokaen at 01/19/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.9% 3.3% 0.5% 1.2% 0.1% 1.9% 1.2% 1.7% 0.3% 0.4% RIPA Consensus 1.0% 1.4% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 2.0% 0.7% 0.7% 0.4% 0.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.2% 2.0% 0.5% 0.6% 0.1% 1.9% 0.8% 1.0% 0.3% 0.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% Logistic Regression 1.0% 2.2% 0.9% 0.6% 0.3% 3.9% 1.3% 0.2% 0.5% 1.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nokaen at 01/18/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.7% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 1.1% 0.2% 0.5% Logistic Regression 0.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 1.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nokaen at 01/18/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.6% 0.2% 1.3% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% 2.3% 0.5% 1.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 1.7% 0.4% 1.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 3.6% 0.9% 2.2% Logistic Regression 0.2% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 1.2% 0.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nokaen at 01/18/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.5% 1.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.8% 0.1% 1.2% 0.1% 0.6% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% 2.7% 0.8% 1.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% 0.1% 2.2% 0.5% 1.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 5.3% 1.4% 2.4% Logistic Regression 0.3% 1.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 1.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nokaen at 01/18/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.5% 1.1% 0.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.8% 0.1% 1.6% 0.4% 0.8% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% 3.7% 1.1% 1.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 3.0% 0.8% 1.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 7.2% 2.0% 2.9% Logistic Regression 0.2% 1.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 1.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nokaen at 01/17/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.3% 1.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 1.3% 0.3% 0.7% 0.4% 0.7% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 1.0% 0.2% 0.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.2% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 1.9% 0.3% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.3% 1.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nokaen at 01/17/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.0% 6.8% 4.0% 5.3% 4.0% 5.4% 2.7% 2.5% 1.8% 1.2% RIPA Consensus 2.6% 5.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.1% 3.8% 1.4% 6.3% 0.0% 0.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.7% 5.6% 2.9% 3.1% 2.0% 4.3% 1.8% 5.0% 0.6% 0.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.7% 3.1% 1.4% 1.1% 0.3% 0.9% 0.7% 12.1% 0.0% 0.7% Logistic Regression 2.5% 6.9% 3.5% 3.0% 1.8% 6.6% 2.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nokaen at 01/17/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 6.6% 27.8% 19.9% 7.0% 6.4% 11.7% 6.3% 6.6% 7.2% 1.5% RIPA Consensus 2.2% 5.0% 2.4% 2.1% 1.0% 3.2% 1.1% 5.5% 1.4% 0.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.6% 12.5% 8.2% 3.7% 2.7% 6.0% 2.8% 5.8% 3.3% 0.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.4% 3.1% 1.3% 1.3% 0.1% 0.6% 0.4% 8.7% 2.2% 0.2% Logistic Regression 2.0% 6.8% 3.4% 3.0% 1.8% 5.8% 1.8% 2.2% 0.6% 0.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nokaen at 01/17/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.5% 20.2% 8.3% 3.8% 1.7% 4.2% 1.7% 2.8% 0.7% 1.3% RIPA Consensus 3.2% 12.1% 6.2% 5.9% 2.5% 10.0% 4.4% 11.9% 4.1% 1.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.6% 14.7% 6.9% 5.2% 2.2% 8.1% 3.5% 8.8% 2.9% 1.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.9% 8.2% 3.3% 3.3% 0.2% 2.8% 1.7% 17.5% 6.2% 0.8% Logistic Regression 3.4% 15.9% 9.1% 8.5% 4.9% 17.3% 7.1% 6.2% 2.0% 1.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nokaen at 01/16/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 10.0% 36.6% 29.5% 15.7% 3.4% 27.0% 14.0% 6.5% 7.9% 2.1% RIPA Consensus 3.1% 12.2% 6.3% 6.1% 2.9% 12.6% 5.8% 12.6% 5.1% 2.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 5.3% 20.3% 14.0% 9.2% 3.0% 17.3% 8.5% 10.5% 6.0% 2.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.9% 7.7% 3.3% 3.3% 0.2% 3.8% 2.2% 18.5% 6.7% 2.6% Logistic Regression 3.3% 16.6% 9.3% 8.9% 5.6% 21.3% 9.5% 6.7% 3.6% 3.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nokaen at 01/16/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 8.3% 22.9% 15.9% 9.0% 4.2% 17.6% 6.6% 10.7% 8.2% 12.1% RIPA Consensus 6.6% 17.8% 8.4% 7.0% 4.8% 14.8% 6.8% 11.1% 5.0% 3.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 7.1% 19.5% 10.9% 7.6% 4.6% 15.7% 6.7% 10.9% 6.0% 6.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 6.8% 12.9% 5.5% 2.8% 1.7% 4.7% 2.7% 16.4% 5.7% 3.1% Logistic Regression 6.3% 22.7% 11.4% 11.1% 7.9% 25.0% 10.9% 5.7% 4.4% 4.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------           Nokaen at 01/15/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.5% 2.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 2.1% 0.1% 3.2% RIPA Consensus 0.6% 7.6% 2.3% 1.4% 1.4% 7.4% 2.1% 20.0% 9.6% 23.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.5% 6.0% 1.6% 1.0% 1.0% 4.9% 1.4% 14.0% 6.4% 16.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.4% 4.8% 1.7% 0.6% 0.6% 5.1% 2.1% 36.8% 17.2% 40.0% Logistic Regression 0.8% 10.5% 2.9% 2.3% 2.3% 9.7% 2.1% 3.3% 2.1% 6.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------       One at 01/15/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.9% 7.7% 5.9% 0.8% 0.7% 1.1% 0.5% 3.2% 1.9% 1.9% RIPA Consensus 1.3% 19.7% 7.5% 5.4% 4.6% 16.6% 5.9% 26.4% 15.3% 30.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.4% 15.7% 6.9% 3.8% 3.3% 11.4% 4.1% 18.7% 10.7% 20.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.8% 13.4% 4.5% 1.3% 1.3% 9.0% 3.7% 44.1% 23.7% 47.1% Logistic Regression 1.7% 26.0% 10.5% 9.4% 8.0% 24.3% 8.1% 8.8% 6.8% 13.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   One at 01/15/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.6% 0.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 1.3% 0.2% 4.4% RIPA Consensus 0.6% 6.3% 1.7% 1.1% 1.1% 5.9% 1.3% 13.6% 5.4% 22.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.6% 4.3% 1.3% 0.7% 0.9% 4.1% 0.9% 9.5% 3.6% 16.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.7% 4.5% 1.4% 0.6% 0.6% 3.7% 1.0% 23.3% 8.5% 35.1% Logistic Regression 0.6% 8.1% 1.9% 1.6% 1.6% 8.2% 1.7% 3.9% 2.4% 10.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   One at 01/14/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.9% 7.2% 8.7% 1.2% 0.7% 2.1% 1.0% 6.6% 3.4% 9.7% RIPA Consensus 1.9% 31.7% 13.0% 9.5% 8.5% 42.4% 23.4% 33.6% 31.4% 64.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.5% 23.5% 11.5% 6.7% 5.8% 28.9% 15.9% 24.6% 22.0% 45.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.4% 22.9% 8.2% 1.9% 1.9% 25.9% 13.8% 42.0% 25.3% 62.6% Logistic Regression 2.4% 40.5% 17.8% 17.1% 15.0% 58.9% 33.0% 25.3% 37.4% 65.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   One at 01/14/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.8% 8.6% 2.9% 0.2% 0.1% 1.3% 0.2% 3.0% 0.9% 4.0% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------