Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current Nuri intensity image current Nuri RI diff image

 


Three at 03/12/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 15 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 2.3% 0.3% 0.6% 0.0% 7.4% 2.9% 7.1% 4.1% 23.8% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 5.1% 1.1% 0.8% 0.5% 10.8% 3.3% 33.7% 18.0% 59.1%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 4.2% 0.8% 0.7% 0.3% 9.6% 3.2% 24.8% 13.3% 47.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 2.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 2.1% 0.8% 43.7% 23.8% 62.5%
Logistic Regression 0.3% 7.8% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 19.4% 5.9% 23.8% 12.2% 55.7%
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Three at 03/12/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 1.1% 2.4% 0.4% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 1.4% 0.3% 7.7% 2.4% 2.2%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 1.1% 0.2% 5.4% 2.3% 1.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 14.1% 3.9% 4.0%
Logistic Regression 0.1% 1.9% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 2.7% 0.4% 1.2% 0.8% 0.4%
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Nuri at 03/12/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 12.7% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 2.0% 0.3% 8.1% 2.5% 26.6%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% 0.1% 5.4% 1.7% 22.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 14.5% 4.0% 43.4%
Logistic Regression 0.1% 2.3% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 3.5% 0.5% 1.7% 1.0% 9.9%
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Nuri at 03/11/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 0.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.7% 0.5% 24.7% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 1.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 1.4% 0.3% 7.2% 2.1% 24.1%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.2% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 1.0% 0.2% 5.0% 1.5% 24.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 13.4% 3.6% 41.0%
Logistic Regression 0.3% 2.6% 0.6% 0.4% 0.3% 2.4% 0.4% 1.1% 0.7% 7.2%
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Nuri at 03/11/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.5% 5.5% 7.0% 4.0% 1.5% 4.8% 3.6% 2.4% 2.4% 18.6% RIPA Consensus 0.6% 5.5% 1.6% 1.1% 0.8% 3.5% 0.8% 8.2% 2.6% 17.3%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.2% 5.5% 3.3% 2.0% 1.0% 3.9% 1.7% 6.2% 2.5% 17.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.3% 3.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.9% 0.2% 14.8% 4.1% 29.6%
Logistic Regression 0.8% 7.9% 2.5% 2.0% 1.4% 6.0% 1.3% 1.6% 1.0% 5.0%
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Nuri at 03/11/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.8% 3.0% 1.3% 0.8% 0.3% 1.9% 1.7% 1.1% 2.1% 11.0% RIPA Consensus 0.5% 10.7% 3.3% 2.2% 1.9% 16.1% 5.0% 30.9% 17.4% 47.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.5% 8.1% 2.6% 1.7% 1.4% 11.4% 3.9% 21.0% 12.2% 34.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.3% 7.4% 2.1% 0.8% 0.8% 11.2% 4.1% 49.6% 25.4% 62.6%
Logistic Regression 0.6% 14.1% 4.4% 3.7% 3.1% 21.1% 6.0% 12.3% 9.3% 31.3%
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Nuri at 03/11/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.7% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
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