Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)     Five at 05/13/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 15 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 1.3% 0.0% 2.6% RIPA Consensus 0.3% 5.1% 1.4% 1.0% 0.8% 10.7% 3.8% 24.4% 14.2% 42.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 3.5% 0.9% 0.6% 0.5% 7.2% 2.5% 16.7% 9.4% 29.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 1.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 2.8% 2.3% 42.4% 23.2% 59.1% Logistic Regression 0.5% 8.9% 2.3% 1.6% 1.2% 18.6% 5.3% 6.5% 5.2% 25.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Five at 05/13/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 2.4% 0.0% 7.4% RIPA Consensus 0.6% 5.1% 1.6% 1.0% 0.9% 10.3% 4.4% 27.9% 15.3% 45.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.4% 3.5% 1.1% 0.6% 0.6% 6.9% 2.9% 19.4% 10.1% 32.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.2% 1.6% 0.8% 0.4% 0.4% 4.2% 4.0% 48.2% 25.1% 62.6% Logistic Regression 0.9% 8.7% 2.5% 1.6% 1.5% 16.4% 4.9% 7.7% 5.4% 28.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Five at 05/13/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.5% 0.1% 4.6% 0.2% 8.7% RIPA Consensus 0.6% 5.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.9% 11.5% 4.9% 28.4% 16.2% 50.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.5% 3.5% 1.0% 0.7% 0.6% 7.8% 3.3% 20.4% 10.8% 36.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.2% 1.5% 0.7% 0.4% 0.4% 4.0% 3.9% 46.9% 25.1% 62.6% Logistic Regression 1.0% 8.6% 2.4% 1.6% 1.4% 19.0% 5.9% 9.8% 7.2% 39.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Five at 05/12/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.4% 2.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 7.0% 0.3% 4.8% RIPA Consensus 0.5% 5.8% 1.9% 1.3% 1.2% 11.4% 5.0% 30.2% 17.0% 53.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.4% 4.8% 1.4% 0.9% 0.8% 7.6% 3.3% 22.5% 11.4% 37.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 1.7% 0.9% 0.6% 0.6% 4.1% 4.1% 49.0% 25.3% 62.6% Logistic Regression 0.9% 10.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.8% 18.7% 5.9% 11.5% 8.7% 45.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Five at 05/12/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.4% 2.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 1.1% 0.1% 7.4% 0.2% 15.7% RIPA Consensus 0.4% 5.4% 1.7% 1.0% 0.9% 10.8% 4.6% 30.5% 17.3% 54.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.3% 4.3% 1.3% 0.7% 0.6% 7.6% 3.1% 22.8% 11.6% 41.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 1.7% 0.8% 0.3% 0.3% 4.1% 3.9% 49.5% 25.8% 62.6% Logistic Regression 0.7% 9.0% 2.6% 1.7% 1.5% 17.6% 5.3% 11.6% 8.8% 46.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Five at 05/12/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.4% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 2.9% 0.4% 11.3% 0.2% 11.7% RIPA Consensus 1.1% 9.0% 3.3% 2.1% 1.7% 17.0% 8.4% 31.7% 18.4% 56.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.8% 6.3% 2.3% 1.4% 1.2% 12.2% 5.7% 24.9% 12.2% 41.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.4% 3.2% 1.5% 0.5% 0.5% 5.8% 5.8% 49.4% 25.6% 62.6% Logistic Regression 1.8% 14.8% 5.1% 3.6% 3.0% 28.1% 11.0% 14.0% 11.1% 51.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Five at 05/12/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.6% 1.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 2.3% 0.3% 8.2% 0.6% 13.7% RIPA Consensus 0.8% 7.2% 2.6% 1.5% 1.4% 14.3% 7.0% 31.3% 19.0% 58.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.7% 5.1% 1.8% 1.0% 1.0% 10.3% 4.7% 23.6% 12.9% 43.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.3% 2.4% 1.4% 0.4% 0.4% 5.8% 5.8% 48.2% 26.8% 62.6% Logistic Regression 1.3% 12.1% 3.9% 2.6% 2.4% 22.9% 8.2% 14.4% 11.3% 53.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Five at 05/11/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.7% 4.7% 1.4% 2.1% 1.6% 5.5% 2.1% 15.2% 1.0% 27.7% RIPA Consensus 0.6% 6.3% 2.3% 1.4% 1.3% 11.5% 5.5% 28.5% 16.9% 47.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.6% 5.7% 1.9% 1.6% 1.3% 9.5% 4.3% 24.0% 11.6% 40.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.2% 1.8% 0.9% 0.2% 0.2% 4.1% 4.1% 45.5% 25.2% 62.3% Logistic Regression 1.0% 10.7% 3.6% 2.5% 2.3% 19.0% 6.9% 11.5% 8.7% 32.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Five at 05/11/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.9% 22.0% 15.1% 10.4% 4.0% 20.7% 11.2% 24.1% 10.9% 25.3% RIPA Consensus 0.5% 6.8% 2.5% 1.7% 1.2% 12.5% 5.9% 28.7% 16.8% 52.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.6% 11.8% 6.7% 4.5% 2.1% 15.2% 7.6% 27.2% 14.8% 43.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 1.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 3.5% 3.2% 44.5% 24.9% 62.6% Logistic Regression 1.0% 11.7% 4.4% 3.1% 2.4% 21.6% 8.5% 13.0% 8.7% 42.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Five at 05/11/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.7% 2.7% 1.3% 0.4% 0.2% 3.6% 0.7% 9.8% 2.2% 11.1% RIPA Consensus 0.7% 8.8% 3.5% 2.4% 1.7% 15.9% 7.9% 33.0% 19.3% 57.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.7% 6.8% 2.7% 1.7% 1.2% 11.8% 5.5% 25.2% 13.6% 41.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 2.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 4.1% 3.6% 47.2% 25.1% 62.6% Logistic Regression 1.3% 15.1% 6.2% 4.6% 3.4% 27.8% 12.2% 18.8% 13.5% 51.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Hagupit at 05/10/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 1.4% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 2.5% 0.4% 5.9% 0.7% 11.1% RIPA Consensus 1.3% 12.4% 5.3% 3.7% 3.0% 19.2% 9.7% 32.2% 19.7% 56.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.9% 8.7% 3.6% 2.6% 2.0% 13.6% 6.6% 23.4% 13.4% 41.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.5% 5.0% 2.1% 0.5% 0.5% 6.2% 5.1% 45.0% 25.1% 62.6% Logistic Regression 2.2% 19.9% 8.5% 6.9% 5.5% 32.2% 14.4% 19.4% 14.4% 50.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Hagupit at 05/10/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.3% 4.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.3% 1.1% 0.2% 4.8% 0.6% 17.6% RIPA Consensus 0.4% 4.0% 1.3% 1.0% 0.9% 6.5% 2.4% 20.6% 10.6% 39.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.3% 4.0% 1.0% 0.7% 0.7% 4.6% 1.6% 15.3% 7.2% 31.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 2.5% 2.0% 34.5% 17.8% 58.5% Logistic Regression 0.7% 7.2% 2.2% 1.5% 1.5% 10.4% 2.8% 6.8% 3.4% 19.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Hagupit at 05/10/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.5% 0.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 4.7% 0.3% 5.1% RIPA Consensus 0.3% 3.7% 1.2% 0.8% 0.8% 5.7% 2.0% 19.4% 9.4% 41.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.3% 2.7% 0.9% 0.5% 0.6% 3.9% 1.3% 14.5% 6.3% 29.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 2.3% 1.6% 33.0% 15.9% 61.9% Logistic Regression 0.5% 6.6% 2.0% 1.4% 1.4% 9.1% 2.4% 5.9% 2.9% 20.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Hagupit at 05/10/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.9% 6.8% 4.9% 1.2% 2.0% 2.5% 0.6% 11.5% 1.3% 26.0% RIPA Consensus 1.2% 11.1% 4.7% 3.4% 3.0% 14.3% 6.3% 23.3% 12.1% 39.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.1% 9.6% 4.8% 2.6% 2.6% 10.3% 4.3% 19.3% 8.5% 34.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.7% 5.1% 2.4% 0.9% 0.9% 6.4% 4.3% 34.7% 17.4% 50.6% Logistic Regression 1.8% 17.1% 7.1% 5.8% 5.1% 22.2% 8.3% 11.9% 6.9% 28.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Hagupit at 05/09/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.4% 3.6% 1.9% 0.7% 0.3% 4.1% 0.8% 10.4% 1.5% 17.3% RIPA Consensus 1.2% 13.9% 5.8% 4.4% 3.9% 19.3% 8.2% 34.1% 18.8% 46.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.2% 10.5% 4.4% 3.1% 2.6% 14.2% 5.7% 26.2% 13.0% 36.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.4% 6.6% 2.3% 1.1% 1.1% 9.8% 5.2% 45.0% 24.9% 61.0% Logistic Regression 1.9% 21.3% 9.2% 7.8% 6.6% 28.7% 11.3% 23.2% 12.8% 31.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Hagupit at 05/09/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.9% 2.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.2% 0.5% 0.2% 7.7% 0.4% 7.2% RIPA Consensus 1.2% 14.3% 6.3% 4.6% 4.1% 18.1% 7.9% 33.0% 18.2% 51.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.1% 10.5% 4.3% 3.1% 2.8% 12.2% 5.3% 24.5% 12.2% 37.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.4% 6.6% 2.6% 0.9% 0.9% 8.5% 4.8% 44.1% 24.6% 62.6% Logistic Regression 2.1% 22.1% 9.9% 8.4% 7.4% 27.7% 11.0% 21.8% 11.8% 41.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Hagupit at 05/09/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.4% 9.3% 8.0% 0.9% 0.6% 5.9% 2.8% 9.4% 0.9% 14.1% RIPA Consensus 3.1% 22.6% 11.8% 9.8% 9.0% 22.9% 11.2% 32.5% 18.1% 44.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.5% 18.1% 10.5% 6.8% 6.1% 17.2% 8.3% 24.8% 12.3% 34.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.9% 12.9% 6.7% 4.3% 4.3% 12.8% 8.0% 43.2% 24.0% 55.8% Logistic Regression 4.3% 32.2% 16.9% 15.2% 13.7% 33.1% 14.3% 21.8% 12.1% 33.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Hagupit at 05/09/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.3% 7.2% 2.2% 2.2% 0.6% 4.3% 3.7% 11.8% 2.9% 24.9% RIPA Consensus 3.6% 29.9% 16.8% 14.0% 13.9% 33.6% 18.9% 41.8% 24.3% 57.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.8% 22.3% 11.9% 10.1% 9.4% 23.8% 13.8% 31.7% 17.1% 46.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.3% 19.2% 10.6% 6.8% 6.8% 22.9% 15.2% 48.4% 26.5% 62.6% Logistic Regression 5.0% 40.7% 23.1% 21.3% 21.0% 44.3% 22.6% 35.1% 22.1% 51.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Hagupit at 05/08/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.9% 15.2% 9.2% 0.8% 0.7% 4.8% 3.1% 12.3% 5.5% 26.5% RIPA Consensus 1.9% 19.6% 9.7% 7.9% 7.6% 23.9% 11.1% 38.7% 19.9% 56.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.5% 18.1% 9.5% 5.5% 5.3% 17.5% 8.4% 29.8% 15.1% 46.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.0% 10.8% 5.2% 3.8% 3.8% 16.4% 9.7% 49.5% 25.7% 62.6% Logistic Regression 2.8% 28.4% 14.1% 12.0% 11.4% 31.4% 12.6% 27.8% 14.1% 50.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Hagupit at 05/08/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 6.0% 0.4% 11.4% RIPA Consensus 0.9% 9.4% 3.6% 2.4% 2.4% 9.3% 3.3% 25.2% 12.7% 40.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.8% 6.5% 2.4% 1.7% 1.6% 6.3% 2.3% 18.8% 8.6% 30.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.6% 5.2% 2.5% 1.2% 1.2% 6.8% 3.6% 41.4% 22.1% 61.9% Logistic Regression 1.3% 13.6% 4.8% 3.7% 3.7% 11.8% 3.0% 9.0% 3.3% 18.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Hagupit at 05/08/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.4% 12.5% 8.0% 2.1% 6.2% 8.6% 5.6% 12.7% 1.8% 20.5% RIPA Consensus 5.5% 30.3% 16.9% 12.6% 12.0% 24.8% 12.2% 33.7% 18.2% 47.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.8% 24.3% 13.9% 9.1% 10.0% 19.4% 10.0% 26.7% 12.7% 38.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 4.5% 23.1% 13.3% 5.8% 5.8% 15.5% 9.3% 47.0% 25.2% 62.4% Logistic Regression 6.5% 37.5% 20.5% 19.5% 18.2% 34.1% 15.1% 20.4% 11.2% 32.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Hagupit at 05/08/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.3% 10.1% 8.8% 3.9% 1.5% 14.0% 5.4% 17.4% 8.2% 19.5% RIPA Consensus 8.4% 42.1% 26.5% 22.5% 20.3% 35.3% 20.3% 36.0% 20.5% 47.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 7.0% 31.4% 20.5% 16.2% 14.0% 28.2% 15.3% 29.8% 16.4% 37.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 7.0% 31.9% 17.6% 9.5% 9.5% 22.9% 14.5% 45.0% 24.8% 57.3% Logistic Regression 9.7% 52.3% 35.4% 35.4% 31.1% 47.8% 26.2% 27.0% 16.3% 36.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Hagupit at 05/07/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 7.3% 11.7% 10.8% 4.2% 2.6% 14.9% 6.7% 18.5% 8.0% 33.5% RIPA Consensus 6.2% 48.0% 30.7% 26.9% 25.2% 54.0% 37.7% 50.4% 36.2% 63.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 6.5% 35.9% 24.0% 19.3% 17.6% 40.9% 27.3% 39.7% 26.8% 53.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 3.3% 35.2% 17.5% 10.9% 10.9% 39.2% 26.7% 43.9% 29.1% 62.6% Logistic Regression 9.1% 60.8% 44.0% 43.0% 39.5% 68.7% 48.8% 56.9% 43.3% 64.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Hagupit at 05/07/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 5.1% 7.8% 4.3% 4.5% 2.8% 5.9% 4.4% 16.2% 4.0% 30.5% RIPA Consensus 3.3% 26.2% 14.0% 10.5% 9.9% 29.5% 16.1% 37.0% 19.7% 48.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.9% 20.0% 10.7% 8.5% 7.5% 21.6% 12.2% 30.0% 14.4% 42.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.2% 17.6% 9.4% 4.5% 4.5% 20.2% 13.7% 49.1% 25.2% 62.6% Logistic Regression 4.5% 34.9% 18.7% 16.6% 15.4% 38.7% 18.5% 24.8% 14.1% 33.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Hagupit at 05/07/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 7.1% 18.8% 22.1% 5.1% 10.0% 10.0% 5.6% 19.7% 5.1% 16.7% RIPA Consensus 3.9% 29.6% 16.8% 12.7% 11.1% 34.3% 20.6% 42.3% 24.3% 52.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 5.0% 26.0% 18.5% 10.2% 10.6% 26.2% 15.6% 34.7% 17.9% 40.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.2% 19.3% 9.9% 3.7% 3.7% 21.0% 14.8% 49.5% 26.0% 62.1% Logistic Regression 5.7% 39.9% 23.8% 21.8% 18.4% 47.6% 26.5% 35.1% 22.6% 42.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Hagupit at 05/07/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.2% 21.4% 4.7% 2.2% 1.2% 11.6% 4.7% 18.8% 7.5% 29.7% RIPA Consensus 4.8% 30.2% 17.6% 13.2% 12.0% 35.6% 21.6% 41.2% 24.6% 52.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.3% 27.2% 13.2% 9.5% 8.4% 27.5% 16.0% 33.7% 18.9% 45.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.8% 19.8% 11.2% 5.0% 5.0% 24.3% 18.0% 47.4% 26.8% 62.6% Logistic Regression 6.9% 40.6% 24.0% 21.4% 19.1% 46.9% 25.3% 35.0% 22.5% 43.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Hagupit at 05/06/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.1% 8.5% 3.3% 1.8% 0.9% 9.9% 6.1% 14.3% 6.0% 27.3% RIPA Consensus 4.4% 35.8% 21.6% 17.4% 17.4% 47.7% 31.5% 46.8% 33.9% 64.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.6% 26.6% 15.4% 12.2% 11.9% 35.0% 23.0% 36.0% 24.6% 52.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.7% 23.9% 14.7% 9.5% 9.5% 36.9% 28.0% 45.7% 33.2% 62.6% Logistic Regression 6.0% 47.6% 28.4% 25.4% 25.4% 58.4% 35.1% 48.0% 34.6% 66.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Hagupit at 05/06/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.7% 1.6% 0.6% 1.2% 0.4% 3.6% 2.1% 11.2% 1.7% 29.2% RIPA Consensus 1.6% 18.0% 7.8% 5.5% 5.4% 23.0% 10.6% 34.6% 19.4% 51.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.3% 12.5% 5.3% 4.1% 3.7% 16.5% 7.8% 26.8% 13.5% 43.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.8% 10.5% 5.0% 2.8% 2.8% 16.8% 10.9% 46.7% 26.7% 62.6% Logistic Regression 2.4% 25.4% 10.6% 8.3% 8.0% 29.2% 10.4% 22.5% 12.1% 39.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Five at 05/06/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.9% 8.9% 2.3% 1.1% 1.2% 1.7% 1.1% 17.8% 4.1% 32.9% RIPA Consensus 10.7% 51.3% 33.9% 30.9% 30.9% 63.1% 52.2% 65.6% 60.5% 70.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 7.4% 37.1% 23.3% 20.9% 21.0% 42.6% 35.1% 49.6% 41.6% 57.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 8.7% 39.6% 26.9% 20.9% 20.9% 47.6% 41.5% 73.3% 63.6% 62.6% Logistic Regression 12.7% 62.9% 40.9% 40.9% 40.9% 78.6% 62.9% 57.9% 57.4% 78.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Five at 05/05/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 8.9% 16.2% 13.8% 3.4% 6.3% 12.8% 13.1% 25.0% 15.2% 34.8% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------