Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)     Jangmi at 05/30/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.4% 3.1% 1.3% 0.7% 1.4% 1.2% 1.3% 2.9% 0.4% 0.2% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Jangmi at 05/30/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.4% 5.4% 1.5% 2.0% 0.5% 10.7% 5.0% 3.8% 2.8% 0.7% RIPA Consensus 20.8% 38.8% 33.7% 33.7% 22.3% 16.1% 7.3% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 14.2% 27.6% 22.9% 23.0% 15.0% 14.2% 6.5% 5.5% 0.9% 0.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 21.2% 32.4% 28.3% 28.3% 6.0% 13.7% 7.0% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 20.3% 45.1% 39.0% 39.0% 38.7% 18.4% 7.6% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Jangmi at 05/30/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.0% 8.3% 6.2% 2.3% 2.1% 5.9% 3.1% 9.8% 0.8% 9.1% RIPA Consensus 49.7% 72.1% 72.1% 72.1% 53.1% 45.4% 30.7% 17.7% 9.5% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 34.1% 50.7% 50.1% 48.7% 36.1% 32.1% 21.5% 15.1% 6.6% 3.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 60.4% 68.5% 68.5% 68.5% 30.6% 38.9% 27.0% 22.5% 9.8% 0.0% Logistic Regression 39.0% 75.6% 75.6% 75.6% 75.6% 51.8% 34.4% 13.0% 9.2% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Jangmi at 05/30/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 11.0% 33.5% 19.8% 5.8% 5.0% 12.3% 4.8% 19.5% 5.1% 17.3% RIPA Consensus 23.4% 63.3% 54.3% 52.0% 41.0% 46.5% 31.7% 25.7% 15.2% 3.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 19.2% 53.3% 42.8% 36.6% 29.0% 35.0% 22.7% 23.6% 11.7% 8.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 23.5% 56.4% 43.7% 39.1% 17.1% 36.2% 24.7% 30.6% 15.6% 1.8% Logistic Regression 23.3% 70.2% 65.0% 65.0% 65.0% 56.7% 38.6% 20.8% 14.7% 5.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Jangmi at 05/29/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 7.5% 17.7% 12.6% 11.5% 17.1% 21.5% 10.5% 34.0% 7.0% 23.4% RIPA Consensus 21.2% 54.8% 43.1% 39.0% 31.7% 51.3% 35.3% 39.7% 25.2% 11.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 16.6% 42.4% 32.9% 29.8% 26.8% 41.3% 27.0% 37.8% 19.1% 15.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 21.0% 47.6% 35.2% 27.1% 12.6% 41.8% 29.2% 46.3% 25.1% 9.5% Logistic Regression 21.4% 62.1% 50.9% 50.9% 50.9% 60.8% 41.5% 33.1% 25.3% 13.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Jangmi at 05/29/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 6.0% 33.0% 16.4% 6.2% 1.7% 20.2% 11.3% 34.5% 7.8% 34.1% RIPA Consensus 12.8% 44.6% 30.5% 27.0% 21.3% 43.8% 27.9% 40.6% 24.8% 21.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 10.5% 40.6% 25.7% 20.0% 14.7% 35.9% 22.3% 38.5% 19.1% 25.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 11.3% 35.5% 23.2% 16.6% 5.1% 35.3% 24.5% 45.6% 25.2% 19.7% Logistic Regression 14.3% 53.6% 37.7% 37.4% 37.4% 52.4% 31.4% 35.6% 24.4% 22.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Jangmi at 05/29/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.5% 14.4% 5.7% 3.8% 0.6% 13.3% 7.6% 24.5% 8.8% 32.4% RIPA Consensus 5.8% 29.3% 17.4% 14.1% 10.0% 31.8% 18.2% 37.6% 21.7% 27.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.3% 24.3% 13.5% 10.6% 6.8% 25.6% 14.6% 33.2% 17.4% 29.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 4.2% 20.4% 12.1% 7.5% 1.1% 22.9% 15.7% 44.1% 24.9% 28.2% Logistic Regression 7.4% 38.3% 22.7% 20.7% 19.0% 40.7% 20.6% 31.1% 18.5% 27.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Jangmi at 05/29/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.7% 2.8% 0.8% 1.3% 0.3% 4.6% 3.0% 10.5% 5.1% 11.5% RIPA Consensus 8.0% 38.2% 23.1% 18.6% 14.2% 36.6% 21.9% 40.7% 24.0% 39.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 5.9% 26.3% 15.7% 12.8% 9.6% 25.9% 15.6% 30.6% 17.6% 29.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 7.6% 30.4% 18.7% 11.0% 3.0% 27.8% 19.7% 47.5% 25.1% 38.6% Logistic Regression 8.5% 46.0% 27.6% 26.2% 25.5% 45.5% 24.1% 33.9% 22.8% 39.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Jangmi at 05/28/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.4% 15.0% 7.3% 1.1% 4.1% 8.3% 6.7% 26.6% 11.3% 43.8% RIPA Consensus 9.8% 47.0% 29.5% 24.7% 18.8% 44.5% 28.4% 43.9% 26.5% 51.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 7.3% 36.3% 22.0% 16.8% 13.8% 32.4% 21.2% 38.1% 21.4% 49.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 8.8% 38.9% 22.5% 13.8% 4.3% 33.6% 23.9% 49.4% 25.6% 50.6% Logistic Regression 10.9% 55.0% 36.5% 35.6% 33.3% 55.4% 33.0% 38.5% 27.4% 52.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Jangmi at 05/28/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.0% 15.7% 5.5% 4.2% 2.4% 15.6% 11.6% 27.5% 14.8% 53.9% RIPA Consensus 7.8% 46.7% 28.4% 23.7% 17.0% 47.7% 32.6% 43.3% 29.5% 61.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 6.5% 36.3% 20.7% 17.2% 12.1% 37.0% 25.5% 38.0% 24.5% 59.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 6.2% 38.2% 21.0% 13.2% 2.2% 34.8% 25.8% 46.4% 26.6% 60.0% Logistic Regression 9.4% 55.2% 35.8% 34.2% 31.8% 60.7% 39.4% 40.1% 32.3% 63.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Jangmi at 05/28/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.8% 24.5% 9.3% 2.7% 2.7% 21.5% 10.7% 24.1% 17.0% 50.2% RIPA Consensus 2.4% 32.3% 15.5% 11.4% 8.0% 32.6% 17.5% 39.0% 24.1% 61.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.1% 29.7% 13.4% 8.5% 6.2% 28.9% 15.2% 34.0% 21.7% 57.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.4% 24.4% 10.5% 4.3% 0.4% 19.7% 12.3% 48.4% 26.6% 62.6% Logistic Regression 3.4% 40.2% 20.6% 18.5% 15.5% 45.5% 22.7% 29.6% 21.6% 59.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Jangmi at 05/28/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 6.5% 25.8% 15.1% 6.5% 5.7% 12.1% 10.3% 36.9% 15.5% 49.2% RIPA Consensus 7.1% 56.1% 33.6% 29.0% 20.7% 56.5% 41.0% 49.1% 39.1% 70.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 6.8% 46.0% 27.4% 21.5% 15.7% 41.7% 30.7% 45.0% 31.2% 63.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 4.6% 47.0% 21.7% 12.7% 2.2% 38.9% 26.3% 41.9% 25.4% 62.6% Logistic Regression 9.6% 65.2% 45.5% 45.3% 39.3% 74.2% 55.7% 56.4% 52.9% 78.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Jangmi at 05/27/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.3% 25.8% 12.4% 8.4% 1.7% 26.2% 14.1% 17.6% 16.1% 53.7% RIPA Consensus 4.9% 46.8% 25.8% 19.1% 16.7% 52.9% 35.1% 44.0% 33.1% 65.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.3% 39.8% 21.3% 15.5% 11.7% 43.9% 28.0% 35.1% 27.3% 61.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 3.7% 38.0% 18.8% 7.0% 3.8% 39.8% 27.3% 41.9% 25.2% 62.6% Logistic Regression 6.0% 55.6% 32.8% 31.1% 29.7% 65.9% 42.8% 46.1% 40.9% 69.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Jangmi at 05/27/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.0% 17.5% 5.6% 2.0% 1.1% 5.5% 4.5% 14.3% 5.3% 35.7% RIPA Consensus 1.7% 22.0% 9.1% 5.6% 5.6% 33.1% 16.7% 36.9% 25.3% 63.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.1% 20.5% 7.8% 4.3% 4.0% 23.9% 12.6% 29.4% 18.6% 54.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.0% 13.8% 6.1% 1.2% 1.2% 23.7% 15.3% 41.9% 25.4% 62.6% Logistic Regression 2.5% 30.2% 12.0% 9.9% 9.9% 42.5% 18.2% 32.0% 25.2% 64.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Jangmi at 05/27/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.1% 23.0% 12.2% 1.5% 0.8% 9.0% 5.2% 19.1% 6.0% 36.5% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------