Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current Seven intensity image current Seven RI diff image

 


Seven at 06/27/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Seven at 06/27/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Mekkhala at 06/27/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Mekkhala at 06/27/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.7% 1.2% 10.6% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% 0.3% 3.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Mekkhala at 06/26/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.6% 0.6% 5.7% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0.1% 1.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Mekkhala at 06/26/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 0.0% 5.4% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 1.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Mekkhala at 06/26/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% 0.1% 4.4% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 1.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Mekkhala at 06/26/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Mekkhala at 06/25/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.3% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Mekkhala at 06/25/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.6% RIPA Consensus 0.5% 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 3.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.4% 1.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Mekkhala at 06/25/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.6% 4.3% 2.5% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.5% 1.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.8% 2.2% 1.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.3% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.6% 1.9% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Mekkhala at 06/25/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.5% 6.9% 2.2% 0.6% 0.8% 1.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.4% 1.8% 0.8% 0.5% 0.4% 0.8% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.7% 3.5% 1.2% 0.5% 0.5% 0.9% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.6% 3.1% 1.3% 1.0% 0.7% 1.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Mekkhala at 06/24/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 1.0% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.4% 0.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.2% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.3% 2.2% 1.0% 0.7% 0.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Mekkhala at 06/24/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.7% 5.0% 2.9% 2.5% 0.6% 2.2% 0.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 0.4% 2.3% 1.1% 0.9% 0.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.8% 3.1% 1.7% 1.4% 0.6% 1.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.4% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.4% 3.6% 1.8% 1.6% 1.1% 1.2% 0.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Mekkhala at 06/24/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 1.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.9% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.2% 1.5% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Mekkhala at 06/24/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Mekkhala at 06/23/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Mekkhala at 06/23/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Mekkhala at 06/23/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 110 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.8% 3.2% 1.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.6% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.7% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Mekkhala at 06/23/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 4.0% 1.9% 1.0% 0.2% 0.8% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.6% 0.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Mekkhala at 06/22/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 125 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 9.6% 7.0% 3.7% 0.0% 3.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 8.1% 1.6% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 8.5% 3.4% 2.1% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 13.7% 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 2.4% 1.5% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Mekkhala at 06/22/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 125 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 22.3% 7.0% 4.7% 1.6% 2.1% 1.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 27.7% 10.2% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 25.9% 9.1% 7.3% 0.5% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 46.0% 13.0% 12.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 9.4% 7.4% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Mekkhala at 06/22/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 37.1% 6.3% 5.6% 1.4% 5.8% 3.0% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 36.2% 16.3% 14.5% 14.1% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 36.5% 12.9% 11.5% 9.9% 6.7% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 56.3% 19.5% 19.5% 19.5% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 16.1% 13.0% 9.6% 8.8% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Mekkhala at 06/22/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 24.7% 31.3% 30.0% 16.3% 15.1% 8.9% 2.6% 1.0% 0.2% 0.5% RIPA Consensus 44.5% 30.5% 25.6% 25.6% 16.2% 25.7% 5.1% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 37.9% 30.8% 27.0% 22.5% 15.8% 20.0% 4.2% 4.4% 0.0% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 65.5% 35.1% 31.6% 31.6% 18.4% 41.4% 6.8% 11.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 23.6% 26.0% 19.6% 19.6% 14.0% 10.0% 3.4% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0%
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Mekkhala at 06/21/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 15.1% 31.1% 26.2% 14.7% 6.4% 18.8% 5.8% 2.6% 1.2% 2.0% RIPA Consensus 44.1% 47.2% 42.5% 41.7% 34.8% 24.9% 10.5% 8.0% 2.1% 1.2%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 34.4% 41.8% 37.0% 32.6% 25.3% 22.8% 8.9% 6.1% 1.8% 1.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 57.8% 46.8% 41.3% 39.8% 30.3% 31.5% 14.1% 10.2% 2.7% 1.0%
Logistic Regression 30.5% 47.6% 43.6% 43.6% 39.3% 18.2% 6.9% 5.7% 1.5% 1.4%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Mekkhala at 06/21/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 33.9% 52.5% 38.5% 23.8% 21.8% 24.4% 13.0% 7.7% 2.1% 2.5% RIPA Consensus 72.2% 79.2% 79.2% 77.6% 77.0% 44.8% 27.3% 18.2% 6.3% 4.1%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 59.4% 70.3% 65.6% 59.6% 58.6% 38.0% 22.5% 14.6% 4.9% 3.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 84.8% 81.4% 81.4% 78.1% 77.1% 47.2% 31.6% 22.6% 8.2% 4.7%
Logistic Regression 59.6% 77.1% 77.1% 77.1% 76.9% 42.4% 22.9% 13.7% 4.5% 3.6%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Mekkhala at 06/21/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 23.6% 54.8% 48.0% 38.8% 38.2% 40.0% 32.2% 22.7% 30.6% 10.6% RIPA Consensus 56.6% 70.1% 66.0% 62.1% 54.8% 45.5% 28.0% 26.8% 12.1% 9.4%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 45.6% 65.0% 60.0% 54.3% 49.2% 43.6% 29.4% 25.4% 18.2% 9.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 68.2% 69.0% 66.0% 58.1% 44.9% 44.2% 30.0% 35.4% 16.4% 11.4%
Logistic Regression 45.0% 71.2% 66.0% 66.0% 64.7% 46.9% 26.0% 18.3% 7.7% 7.3%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Mekkhala at 06/21/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 29.2% 38.9% 37.6% 20.6% 17.1% 16.8% 8.7% 3.1% 2.6% 1.3% RIPA Consensus 16.1% 55.2% 41.9% 36.4% 28.8% 33.4% 18.0% 28.3% 13.1% 15.4%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 20.4% 49.7% 40.4% 31.1% 24.9% 27.9% 14.9% 19.9% 9.6% 10.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 16.1% 50.0% 34.0% 23.0% 12.9% 29.7% 18.5% 38.1% 18.9% 21.4%
Logistic Regression 16.1% 60.3% 49.8% 49.8% 44.7% 37.2% 17.6% 18.5% 7.4% 9.3%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Mekkhala at 06/20/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 30.6% 47.0% 31.0% 30.5% 15.5% 39.3% 22.8% 31.9% 31.2% 32.5% RIPA Consensus 31.4% 68.5% 58.9% 54.4% 43.2% 52.8% 36.6% 38.8% 21.7% 22.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 31.1% 61.3% 49.6% 46.4% 33.9% 48.3% 32.0% 36.5% 24.8% 25.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 33.9% 63.7% 50.7% 41.7% 24.0% 44.0% 31.1% 45.5% 25.0% 25.2%
Logistic Regression 29.0% 73.4% 67.2% 67.2% 62.3% 61.7% 42.1% 32.2% 18.4% 18.7%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Mekkhala at 06/20/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 21.2% 20.4% 19.7% 11.9% 10.5% 25.5% 13.6% 25.8% 18.0% 31.3% RIPA Consensus 11.4% 42.8% 28.2% 22.5% 21.5% 37.1% 21.5% 34.1% 17.5% 23.1%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 14.6% 35.3% 25.3% 18.9% 17.8% 33.2% 18.8% 31.3% 17.6% 25.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 12.3% 37.8% 25.0% 14.7% 14.7% 34.4% 24.1% 47.2% 25.1% 33.0%
Logistic Regression 10.4% 47.9% 31.4% 30.3% 28.4% 39.9% 18.9% 20.9% 9.9% 13.1%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Mekkhala at 06/20/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 6.1% 17.0% 9.0% 4.1% 3.8% 16.3% 9.7% 21.8% 12.9% 34.9% RIPA Consensus 9.1% 38.0% 23.5% 17.1% 14.8% 40.5% 24.4% 36.8% 21.1% 36.3%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 8.1% 31.0% 18.6% 12.7% 11.1% 32.4% 19.4% 31.8% 18.3% 35.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 9.5% 32.3% 20.8% 9.9% 6.5% 35.9% 25.9% 46.2% 26.7% 50.4%
Logistic Regression 8.8% 43.7% 26.2% 24.3% 23.2% 45.2% 22.9% 27.4% 15.5% 22.2%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Mekkhala at 06/20/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 17.4% 36.6% 29.6% 12.5% 35.4% 22.5% 16.6% 44.0% 24.0% 46.7% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Mekkhala at 06/19/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 23.4% 54.6% 55.8% 21.2% 22.1% 36.2% 24.6% 50.6% 35.0% 55.7% RIPA Consensus 26.7% 73.6% 61.5% 52.6% 45.5% 70.0% 60.4% 64.3% 55.3% 62.5%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 25.5% 67.3% 59.5% 42.1% 37.6% 58.7% 48.4% 59.7% 48.5% 60.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 20.2% 65.9% 49.1% 31.3% 20.5% 55.5% 45.4% 61.7% 47.4% 62.6%
Logistic Regression 33.2% 81.4% 73.8% 73.8% 70.5% 84.5% 75.4% 66.9% 63.2% 62.5%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Seven at 06/19/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 8.9% 46.6% 36.2% 10.3% 11.3% 34.4% 15.8% 45.6% 27.7% 50.5% RIPA Consensus 12.2% 52.2% 34.8% 26.6% 25.8% 57.7% 43.6% 55.6% 45.1% 61.3%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 11.1% 50.3% 35.2% 21.1% 20.9% 49.9% 34.3% 52.2% 39.3% 57.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 9.2% 41.9% 25.5% 11.4% 11.4% 44.4% 34.8% 59.6% 45.9% 62.6%
Logistic Regression 15.3% 62.4% 44.1% 41.7% 40.2% 71.1% 52.5% 51.6% 44.3% 60.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Seven at 06/19/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 3.8% 24.4% 9.0% 5.9% 5.0% 9.6% 4.2% 35.8% 9.5% 49.8% RIPA Consensus 4.4% 38.7% 22.6% 15.7% 15.1% 48.2% 33.0% 58.1% 47.5% 66.4%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.2% 33.9% 18.0% 12.4% 11.7% 35.3% 23.4% 50.6% 34.8% 60.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.3% 27.4% 15.2% 5.0% 5.0% 35.6% 27.7% 67.1% 54.4% 62.6%
Logistic Regression 6.5% 50.0% 30.0% 26.4% 25.1% 60.7% 38.4% 49.1% 40.5% 70.2%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Seven at 06/19/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 3.6% 16.9% 5.6% 3.5% 2.7% 10.3% 6.8% 26.6% 6.0% 60.3% RIPA Consensus 5.1% 41.2% 24.9% 17.7% 17.7% 51.7% 36.3% 69.9% 64.3% 69.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.5% 33.1% 18.4% 12.9% 12.6% 37.8% 26.4% 55.4% 44.8% 66.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 3.8% 31.0% 19.8% 7.5% 7.5% 40.5% 32.2% 88.0% 81.0% 62.6%
Logistic Regression 6.3% 51.5% 29.9% 27.9% 27.9% 62.8% 40.4% 51.7% 47.5% 75.4%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Seven at 06/18/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 15.9% 35.7% 21.3% 20.7% 22.2% 40.8% 31.9% 41.0% 27.2% 60.2% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------