Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)     Nine at 07/14/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Bavi at 07/13/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.3% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nine at 07/13/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.0% 1.6% 1.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.3% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------                 Nine at 07/13/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.6% 1.8% 1.9% 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.5% 0.6% 0.7% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------       Nine at 07/13/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.2% 1.4% 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 1.9% 0.2% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Bavi at 07/12/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.9% 7.9% 1.6% 1.7% 0.5% 1.1% 0.4% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.3% 2.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Bavi at 07/12/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.5% 1.8% 0.5% 1.0% 0.9% 0.9% 0.6% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Bavi at 07/12/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.5% 2.1% 1.0% 1.2% 0.4% 0.9% 0.6% 1.2% 0.8% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Bavi at 07/12/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Bavi at 07/11/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.0% 8.4% 2.4% 3.0% 6.2% 4.1% 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 2.8% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.7% 2.9% 0.9% 1.0% 2.0% 1.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Bavi at 07/11/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.7% 6.3% 3.8% 0.7% 1.6% 1.7% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% RIPA Consensus 1.7% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.0% 2.4% 1.5% 0.2% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.9% 0.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Bavi at 07/11/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.6% 10.4% 3.3% 1.5% 2.4% 3.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% RIPA Consensus 2.3% 1.3% 1.0% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.7% 4.3% 1.7% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.6% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.0% 1.7% 1.1% 0.9% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Bavi at 07/11/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.8% 2.3% 1.4% 0.7% 1.1% 5.9% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.9% RIPA Consensus 10.3% 5.3% 4.3% 4.1% 1.9% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 7.8% 4.2% 3.3% 2.9% 1.6% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 12.7% 4.3% 4.3% 4.3% 0.6% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 7.9% 6.2% 4.3% 3.8% 3.1% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Bavi at 07/10/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.1% 6.4% 4.5% 0.6% 1.1% 3.7% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.5% RIPA Consensus 30.9% 15.2% 13.4% 13.2% 5.7% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 21.6% 12.2% 10.4% 9.0% 4.1% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 42.0% 17.5% 17.5% 17.5% 3.0% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 19.9% 12.9% 9.3% 9.0% 8.4% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Bavi at 07/10/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.6% 3.5% 2.2% 0.7% 1.5% 2.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.6% RIPA Consensus 27.1% 30.1% 28.3% 28.3% 17.7% 7.6% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 18.9% 21.2% 19.6% 19.1% 12.2% 5.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 32.9% 28.3% 28.3% 28.3% 7.0% 9.2% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 21.2% 31.9% 28.4% 28.4% 28.4% 6.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------       Bavi at 07/09/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.9% 4.8% 4.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.9% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 1.9% 4.0% 2.6% 1.6% 1.2% 12.2% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.8% 4.2% 3.2% 1.2% 0.9% 8.4% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.4% 3.4% 2.5% 1.0% 0.6% 22.9% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.4% 4.6% 2.8% 2.2% 1.7% 1.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Bavi at 07/09/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 110 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.5% 8.7% 11.0% 0.8% 0.6% 4.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 3.3% 5.7% 3.7% 2.5% 1.5% 22.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.0% 6.6% 6.1% 1.9% 1.2% 16.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 4.9% 5.6% 3.8% 2.0% 1.0% 42.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.8% 5.7% 3.7% 3.0% 2.0% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------         Bavi at 07/09/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 110 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.0% 7.1% 17.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.9% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% RIPA Consensus 0.6% 2.4% 1.3% 0.9% 0.4% 12.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.7% 3.9% 6.8% 0.6% 0.3% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.7% 1.8% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 23.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.6% 3.0% 1.9% 1.4% 0.8% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Bavi at 07/08/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.0% 1.9% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.9% 1.6% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.9% 1.7% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.0% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.7% 2.1% 1.3% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Bavi at 07/08/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 125 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 1.2% 1.4% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.9% 2.1% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.7% 1.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.8% 1.7% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Bavi at 07/08/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 135 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.8% 7.7% 6.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 5.5% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.6% 5.0% 2.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 9.6% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.5% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Bavi at 07/08/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 135 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.1% 2.8% 1.7% 0.3% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 4.5% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.3% 2.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 7.9% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.1% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Bavi at 07/07/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 130 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.8% 7.2% 5.2% 0.1% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 5.6% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.6% 4.3% 1.7% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 9.7% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.5% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Bavi at 07/07/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 130 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.9% 3.5% 1.8% 0.3% 0.3% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 5.9% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.9% 2.8% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 10.2% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.7% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Bavi at 07/07/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 125 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.9% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.6% 1.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.5% 0.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Bavi at 07/07/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 125 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.2% 4.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 1.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.0% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.5% 0.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Bavi at 07/06/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 135 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 10.3% 2.4% 1.4% 0.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 1.1% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.1% 1.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.6% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Bavi at 07/06/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 140 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 15.5% 5.9% 7.1% 0.1% 4.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 5.6% 1.9% 2.3% 0.0% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Bavi at 07/06/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 145 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 12.1% 8.5% 20.6% 0.5% 3.8% 1.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.0% 2.8% 6.8% 0.1% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Bavi at 07/06/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 150 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 23.0% 16.5% 17.2% 1.4% 8.2% 2.1% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 7.6% 5.5% 5.7% 0.4% 2.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Bavi at 07/05/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 155 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 25.6% 6.0% 2.7% 0.8% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 8.5% 2.0% 0.9% 0.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Bavi at 07/05/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 155 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 16.9% 10.7% 6.3% 3.2% 3.5% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 5.6% 3.5% 2.1% 1.0% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Bavi at 07/05/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 145 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 16.9% 22.2% 27.9% 4.5% 2.7% 1.3% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 5.6% 7.3% 9.2% 1.5% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Bavi at 07/05/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 135 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 21.4% 11.0% 2.9% 4.3% 4.2% 2.5% 0.3% 1.5% 0.1% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 3.9% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 9.7% 6.7% 0.9% 1.4% 1.4% 0.8% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 5.7% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.1% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Bavi at 07/04/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 135 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 11.0% 9.7% 8.7% 6.3% 2.6% 9.0% 0.8% 2.4% 0.1% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 2.4% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 5.3% 5.9% 2.9% 2.1% 0.8% 3.0% 0.2% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 3.1% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.8% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Bavi at 07/04/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 140 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 15.8% 22.1% 14.9% 3.2% 2.2% 1.5% 0.2% 1.9% 0.0% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 9.6% 7.3% 4.9% 1.0% 0.7% 0.5% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 13.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Bavi at 07/04/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 145 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 16.1% 21.7% 24.7% 3.5% 3.9% 3.4% 0.7% 1.1% 0.0% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 5.3% 7.2% 8.2% 1.1% 1.3% 1.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Bavi at 07/04/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 140 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 16.0% 8.7% 10.6% 0.4% 5.9% 1.3% 0.6% 1.3% 0.0% 0.2% RIPA Consensus 26.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 22.6% 2.9% 3.5% 0.1% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 52.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Bavi at 07/03/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 140 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 34.3% 13.2% 12.2% 2.5% 8.1% 2.4% 0.9% 1.5% 0.1% 0.2% RIPA Consensus 30.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 31.5% 4.3% 4.0% 0.8% 2.6% 0.7% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 60.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Bavi at 07/03/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 125 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 47.1% 48.0% 34.0% 4.0% 7.7% 1.8% 0.7% 3.4% 0.1% 0.4% RIPA Consensus 53.3% 48.2% 43.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 51.2% 48.1% 40.4% 1.3% 2.5% 0.6% 0.2% 1.1% 0.0% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 71.7% 55.5% 49.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 34.8% 40.9% 37.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Bavi at 07/03/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 48.5% 41.5% 31.6% 12.4% 21.1% 16.2% 8.7% 10.4% 0.8% 2.0% RIPA Consensus 70.5% 76.0% 76.0% 75.0% 60.5% 83.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 63.2% 64.5% 61.1% 54.1% 47.3% 61.3% 2.9% 3.4% 0.2% 0.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 82.9% 78.0% 78.0% 76.1% 53.3% 99.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 58.2% 74.0% 74.0% 74.0% 67.7% 68.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Bavi at 07/03/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 48.8% 66.4% 55.6% 57.5% 30.6% 35.1% 16.2% 34.5% 4.7% 15.2% RIPA Consensus 79.7% 91.5% 91.5% 90.8% 86.4% 90.4% 81.0% 63.4% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 69.3% 83.1% 79.5% 79.7% 67.8% 72.0% 59.3% 53.7% 1.5% 5.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 89.1% 93.3% 93.3% 92.0% 84.5% 98.2% 86.9% 67.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 70.3% 89.6% 89.6% 89.6% 88.4% 82.7% 75.0% 59.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Bavi at 07/02/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 39.7% 71.8% 63.6% 46.4% 34.5% 55.6% 34.0% 51.0% 23.0% 44.1% RIPA Consensus 76.1% 94.6% 94.6% 93.9% 89.6% 87.1% 81.3% 70.0% 54.9% 67.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 64.0% 86.9% 84.2% 78.0% 71.2% 76.6% 65.5% 63.7% 44.2% 59.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 82.9% 95.4% 95.4% 94.1% 85.6% 89.1% 85.4% 59.9% 45.8% 62.6% Logistic Regression 69.4% 93.7% 93.7% 93.7% 93.7% 85.1% 77.1% 80.2% 64.0% 72.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Bavi at 07/02/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 23.2% 57.2% 45.5% 28.1% 28.0% 40.6% 21.6% 46.2% 21.7% 52.7% RIPA Consensus 48.9% 89.0% 86.3% 78.7% 71.0% 89.9% 86.1% 91.7% 86.7% 74.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 40.3% 78.3% 72.7% 61.8% 56.6% 73.5% 64.6% 76.5% 65.0% 67.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 50.2% 87.0% 82.1% 66.8% 51.5% 89.5% 87.0% 97.2% 95.0% 62.6% Logistic Regression 47.7% 90.9% 90.5% 90.5% 90.5% 90.4% 85.2% 86.1% 78.5% 86.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Bavi at 07/02/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 22.9% 56.1% 43.7% 30.0% 17.2% 50.1% 28.5% 37.7% 24.2% 56.6% RIPA Consensus 36.4% 84.8% 80.7% 69.0% 66.9% 87.6% 83.3% 92.1% 88.8% 75.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 31.9% 75.2% 68.3% 56.0% 50.3% 75.1% 65.0% 73.9% 67.2% 69.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 34.6% 81.1% 74.8% 51.4% 47.2% 85.7% 83.0% 98.7% 97.7% 62.6% Logistic Regression 38.2% 88.5% 86.6% 86.6% 86.6% 89.6% 83.5% 85.5% 79.8% 88.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nine at 07/02/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 24.6% 48.9% 41.3% 26.7% 19.3% 50.5% 27.4% 43.9% 24.8% 60.7% RIPA Consensus 56.8% 89.7% 87.0% 82.3% 82.3% 89.0% 86.3% 86.4% 81.0% 75.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 46.0% 76.1% 71.7% 63.7% 61.2% 76.2% 66.7% 72.2% 62.3% 70.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 59.0% 87.9% 83.4% 74.0% 74.0% 86.2% 85.0% 89.8% 82.9% 62.6% Logistic Regression 54.6% 91.5% 90.5% 90.5% 90.5% 91.9% 87.7% 82.9% 79.2% 87.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nine at 07/01/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 12.5% 43.4% 30.0% 10.7% 4.4% 35.9% 16.6% 34.8% 18.5% 60.3% RIPA Consensus 26.1% 78.5% 68.5% 56.9% 56.9% 79.3% 70.7% 82.2% 76.6% 75.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 21.6% 66.7% 55.6% 41.5% 39.4% 64.8% 52.6% 66.4% 57.2% 70.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 20.7% 71.8% 58.0% 34.8% 34.8% 71.1% 61.9% 87.8% 80.1% 62.6% Logistic Regression 31.6% 85.1% 79.0% 79.0% 79.0% 87.5% 79.5% 76.7% 73.1% 88.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nine at 07/01/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 12.8% 51.1% 29.6% 20.3% 16.9% 43.1% 24.1% 36.5% 25.7% 59.9% RIPA Consensus 16.0% 71.3% 56.4% 48.5% 48.5% 74.8% 63.9% 82.7% 78.8% 75.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 14.9% 64.5% 47.4% 39.1% 37.9% 64.2% 50.6% 67.3% 61.1% 70.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 13.2% 63.2% 44.8% 29.1% 29.1% 64.1% 52.0% 90.6% 84.2% 62.6% Logistic Regression 18.7% 79.4% 67.9% 67.9% 67.9% 85.6% 75.8% 74.8% 73.5% 87.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nine at 07/01/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 5.1% 32.8% 11.2% 9.5% 1.5% 16.7% 11.6% 25.5% 12.0% 63.6% RIPA Consensus 9.0% 58.4% 36.8% 30.2% 30.2% 65.8% 50.3% 90.9% 78.4% 75.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 7.7% 49.9% 28.2% 23.3% 20.6% 49.4% 37.3% 69.1% 56.3% 71.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 7.9% 50.6% 29.6% 16.5% 16.5% 52.1% 38.0% 93.6% 88.2% 62.6% Logistic Regression 10.1% 66.3% 44.0% 44.0% 44.0% 79.5% 62.5% 88.2% 68.7% 88.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nine at 07/01/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.7% 30.9% 6.8% 3.8% 2.2% 13.6% 8.5% 23.4% 11.3% 57.9% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------