Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current Ten intensity image current Ten RI diff image

 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


Ten at 07/06/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.6% 4.6% 0.9% 0.6% 0.4% 1.5% 0.2% 1.4% 1.4% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 14.4% 4.7% 0.1%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 10.0% 3.5% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 19.6% 9.2% 0.1%
Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.2% 9.2% 0.1% 0.1%
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Ten at 07/06/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
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Maysak at 07/05/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.9% 2.3% 1.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.3% 0.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Maysak at 07/05/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.3% 4.9% 3.0% 0.4% 0.4% 1.7% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.4% 1.7% 1.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Maysak at 07/05/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.8% 12.1% 4.8% 1.4% 1.8% 3.5% 0.7% 2.6% 0.9% 12.1% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.6% 4.4% 1.8% 0.5% 0.6% 1.3% 0.3% 0.9% 0.3% 4.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.1% 1.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Maysak at 07/05/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.0% 13.8% 2.9% 0.5% 0.8% 0.6% 0.1% 5.1% 0.1% 13.8% RIPA Consensus 0.6% 2.6% 1.1% 0.9% 0.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.0% 6.3% 1.6% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.1% 1.7% 0.0% 4.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% -0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.9% 4.6% 1.9% 1.7% 1.3% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
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Maysak at 07/04/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 4.0% 23.7% 10.0% 4.9% 1.8% 10.1% 1.6% 2.8% 0.5% 0.6% RIPA Consensus 6.4% 19.1% 12.3% 12.3% 6.8% 10.5% 4.0% 3.0% 1.3% 1.3%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 5.6% 20.6% 11.5% 9.8% 5.1% 10.3% 3.2% 2.9% 1.0% 1.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 6.0% 12.2% 7.1% 7.1% 0.8% 3.6% 1.3% 2.7% 0.5% 0.3%
Logistic Regression 6.8% 26.1% 17.6% 17.6% 12.8% 17.3% 6.7% 3.2% 2.2% 2.3%
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Maysak at 07/04/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.9% 26.6% 7.9% 5.4% 5.3% 9.7% 1.1% 16.3% 13.9% 29.7% RIPA Consensus 5.1% 18.0% 10.4% 9.8% 7.3% 6.7% 2.2% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.3% 20.8% 9.5% 8.3% 6.6% 7.6% 1.8% 6.4% 4.9% 9.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 5.2% 11.7% 6.7% 5.6% 1.4% 3.1% 1.2% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 5.0% 24.2% 14.1% 14.1% 13.2% 10.2% 3.3% 1.3% 0.7% 0.0%
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Maysak at 07/04/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.9% 7.8% 2.1% 1.0% 0.4% 5.7% 0.5% 5.1% 0.5% 17.9% RIPA Consensus 3.3% 17.2% 9.2% 9.0% 6.3% 9.1% 3.0% 3.0% 1.1% 0.7%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.1% 14.0% 6.8% 6.3% 4.3% 7.9% 2.1% 3.6% 0.9% 6.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 3.0% 10.4% 5.3% 4.8% 0.8% 3.8% 1.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1%
Logistic Regression 3.6% 24.0% 13.2% 13.2% 11.7% 14.4% 4.8% 5.3% 2.1% 1.3%
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Maysak at 07/04/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 7.2% 37.8% 17.1% 7.1% 8.0% 11.7% 1.0% 6.3% 4.2% 3.6% RIPA Consensus 6.4% 30.6% 19.5% 18.5% 14.1% 20.3% 8.5% 6.2% 2.4% 1.1%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 6.6% 33.0% 18.6% 14.6% 12.0% 17.4% 6.0% 6.2% 3.0% 1.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 5.5% 20.1% 10.0% 8.0% 2.5% 9.8% 3.5% 1.9% 0.3% 0.1%
Logistic Regression 7.3% 41.2% 28.9% 28.9% 25.7% 30.7% 13.6% 10.5% 4.5% 2.2%
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Maysak at 07/03/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.4% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 2.3% 0.5% 3.0% RIPA Consensus 2.1% 16.5% 7.5% 6.4% 5.7% 11.9% 3.7% 4.0% 1.3% 0.9%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.5% 11.5% 5.1% 4.3% 3.8% 8.1% 2.4% 3.4% 1.0% 1.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.5% 9.0% 3.8% 1.8% 0.9% 5.8% 1.8% 2.4% 0.4% 0.3%
Logistic Regression 2.7% 24.1% 11.2% 11.0% 10.4% 18.0% 5.6% 5.5% 2.3% 1.6%
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Maysak at 07/03/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 4.4% 5.9% 2.5% 1.2% 0.6% 3.1% 0.3% 5.0% 2.5% 25.9% RIPA Consensus 3.0% 18.7% 9.3% 8.5% 6.7% 16.1% 6.0% 6.8% 2.7% 2.8%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.4% 14.4% 7.0% 6.0% 4.6% 11.7% 4.1% 6.2% 2.6% 10.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.4% 10.7% 5.1% 3.5% 1.0% 7.4% 2.8% 2.5% 0.4% 0.7%
Logistic Regression 3.6% 26.7% 13.5% 13.5% 12.3% 24.8% 9.3% 11.1% 4.9% 4.9%
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Maysak at 07/03/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.0% 27.6% 14.8% 2.4% 1.8% 13.4% 1.2% 1.3% 2.0% 32.7% RIPA Consensus 3.0% 27.4% 14.9% 14.1% 10.6% 26.8% 13.5% 14.8% 8.0% 5.7%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.6% 27.4% 14.9% 10.2% 7.6% 22.3% 9.4% 10.3% 6.0% 14.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.1% 16.0% 6.7% 5.0% 0.9% 10.8% 4.7% 8.8% 2.6% 1.6%
Logistic Regression 4.0% 38.8% 23.2% 23.2% 20.2% 42.8% 22.3% 20.9% 13.4% 9.9%
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Maysak at 07/03/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.6% 14.2% 7.4% 1.5% 1.3% 6.7% 0.5% 1.5% 1.1% 23.0% RIPA Consensus 2.5% 21.4% 10.4% 9.4% 7.4% 23.3% 10.5% 13.3% 6.7% 7.5%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.5% 18.9% 9.4% 6.7% 5.3% 17.7% 7.1% 9.4% 4.8% 12.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.9% 11.9% 4.9% 2.9% 1.1% 9.5% 4.0% 6.5% 1.7% 2.0%
Logistic Regression 3.1% 30.8% 15.9% 15.9% 13.7% 37.0% 17.0% 20.2% 11.6% 13.0%
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Ten at 07/02/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 2.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 1.4% RIPA Consensus 0.7% 9.4% 3.2% 2.5% 2.2% 13.5% 4.4% 12.5% 5.3% 12.1%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.4% 6.9% 2.2% 1.6% 1.4% 9.1% 2.9% 8.5% 3.6% 8.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.3% 4.0% 1.2% 0.4% 0.2% 5.4% 1.9% 11.2% 3.5% 9.1%
Logistic Regression 1.0% 14.8% 5.1% 4.6% 4.1% 21.6% 6.8% 13.8% 7.2% 15.0%
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Ten at 07/02/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 4.9% RIPA Consensus 0.9% 9.8% 3.2% 2.3% 2.2% 13.4% 4.3% 13.1% 6.1% 17.9%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.6% 6.6% 2.1% 1.5% 1.4% 9.0% 2.9% 8.8% 4.1% 13.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.7% 5.1% 1.9% 0.5% 0.5% 5.5% 2.2% 13.3% 4.4% 15.1%
Logistic Regression 1.1% 14.5% 4.5% 4.1% 3.9% 21.3% 6.5% 12.9% 7.8% 20.7%
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Ten at 07/02/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 1.4% RIPA Consensus 1.8% 9.3% 3.4% 2.5% 2.5% 13.4% 4.8% 14.2% 7.0% 20.7%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.3% 6.2% 2.2% 1.6% 1.6% 9.0% 3.2% 9.6% 4.7% 14.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.3% 4.1% 2.0% 0.6% 0.6% 5.5% 2.7% 14.6% 5.2% 14.9%
Logistic Regression 2.2% 14.5% 4.8% 4.4% 4.4% 21.4% 7.0% 13.9% 8.8% 26.4%
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Ten at 07/02/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 2.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 1.1% 0.1% 1.3% RIPA Consensus 3.0% 21.6% 10.1% 7.9% 7.7% 29.3% 15.1% 27.4% 18.1% 39.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.0% 15.0% 6.9% 5.2% 5.1% 19.6% 10.1% 18.6% 12.0% 26.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.5% 12.5% 7.1% 2.7% 2.3% 13.8% 8.3% 28.1% 13.2% 27.4%
Logistic Regression 3.5% 30.6% 13.1% 13.1% 13.1% 44.7% 21.9% 26.7% 22.9% 50.5%
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Ten at 07/01/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 1.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 1.1% 0.2% 1.8% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
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