Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current Eleven intensity image current Eleven RI diff image

 


Noul at 07/26/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 0 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Noul at 07/26/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 0 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Noul at 07/26/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 0 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Noul at 07/26/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 0 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Noul at 07/25/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 0 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 5.5% 2.2% 6.1% 4.2% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 1.6% 0.2% 6.4% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.8% 0.7% 2.0% 1.4% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 2.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Noul at 07/25/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 0 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.4% 0.4% 1.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 1.8% 0.1% 6.2% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.4% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 2.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Noul at 07/25/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 0 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 6.8% 1.7% 3.1% 7.4% 2.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.7% 1.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 11.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 10.1% 0.5% 1.0% 2.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 23.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Noul at 07/25/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 0 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 5.9% 8.5% 22.2% 8.7% 2.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.8% 2.5% 12.6% RIPA Consensus 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 7.8% 2.8% 7.3% 2.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.8% 4.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 12.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Noul at 07/24/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 26.8% 50.2% 30.5% 19.6% 28.3% 14.8% 5.8% 26.8% 17.7% 28.0% RIPA Consensus 13.2% 9.5% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 17.7% 23.0% 15.2% 6.5% 9.4% 4.9% 1.9% 8.9% 5.8% 9.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 18.6% 9.4% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 7.9% 9.6% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Noul at 07/24/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 0 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 5.9% 11.3% 10.1% 3.5% 4.5% 0.8% 0.2% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 15.1% 12.0% 10.2% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 12.0% 11.7% 10.1% 7.5% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 20.3% 11.6% 11.2% 11.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 10.0% 12.4% 9.2% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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