Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)     Dolphin at 08/10/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 107 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 1.7% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 3.6% 1.1% 0.7% 0.7% 4.8% 1.3% 5.8% 1.8% 7.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 2.9% 0.7% 0.5% 0.4% 3.3% 0.9% 4.0% 1.2% 5.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 1.7% 0.8% 7.4% 2.0% 9.5% Logistic Regression 0.4% 6.5% 1.8% 1.4% 1.4% 7.9% 1.8% 4.1% 1.6% 6.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Dolphin at 08/10/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 111 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.8% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 2.5% 0.6% 6.5% 1.9% 13.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 1.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 1.8% 0.3% 4.5% 1.2% 9.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.3% 8.2% 2.5% 19.7% Logistic Regression 0.2% 3.1% 0.9% 0.6% 0.6% 4.4% 0.9% 4.8% 1.3% 7.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------                                                                                                                     Dolphin at 08/09/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 115 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.3% 9.0% 2.2% 0.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 0.3% 2.4% 1.1% 0.9% 0.8% 1.3% 0.2% 2.5% 0.3% 4.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.6% 4.6% 1.5% 0.7% 0.7% 0.9% 0.1% 1.8% 0.2% 3.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 1.4% 0.3% 2.4% 0.4% 8.1% Logistic Regression 0.5% 4.1% 1.9% 1.5% 1.5% 1.2% 0.2% 2.6% 0.2% 1.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Dolphin at 08/09/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 116 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 16.0% 27.7% 10.8% 9.0% 5.1% 3.1% 0.8% 1.5% 0.1% 0.2% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Dolphin at 08/09/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 113 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 9.5% 32.5% 16.2% 5.7% 9.8% 4.6% 1.1% 2.1% 0.5% 0.4% RIPA Consensus 14.7% 37.9% 36.0% 36.0% 24.3% 18.2% 6.8% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 12.9% 36.0% 29.3% 25.8% 19.4% 13.6% 4.8% 4.1% 0.1% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 15.0% 31.8% 29.7% 29.7% 6.3% 20.2% 7.6% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 14.4% 43.9% 42.3% 42.3% 42.3% 16.2% 5.9% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Dolphin at 08/09/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 115 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.7% 6.3% 2.3% 1.9% 0.1% 1.8% 0.6% 1.5% 0.3% 1.3% RIPA Consensus 2.6% 7.4% 4.9% 4.8% 3.4% 1.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.9% 7.0% 4.0% 3.7% 2.3% 1.8% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.2% 4.0% 2.8% 2.8% 0.4% 1.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.9% 10.7% 7.1% 6.7% 6.4% 2.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Dolphin at 08/08/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 106 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.7% 9.9% 3.5% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.3% 0.8% 0.2% 2.5% RIPA Consensus 8.2% 19.4% 18.6% 17.5% 14.8% 12.4% 4.0% 7.7% 1.2% 4.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 6.0% 16.2% 13.5% 12.0% 10.2% 8.9% 2.7% 5.4% 0.8% 3.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 9.6% 14.4% 13.4% 11.2% 5.8% 17.8% 6.0% 6.3% 1.4% 5.5% Logistic Regression 6.8% 24.5% 23.8% 23.8% 23.8% 7.1% 2.0% 9.2% 1.0% 2.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Dolphin at 08/08/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 105 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.7% 6.8% 7.7% 2.5% 1.8% 4.4% 0.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.3% RIPA Consensus 8.5% 22.6% 21.6% 21.1% 17.2% 13.9% 4.5% 9.1% 1.4% 4.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 6.5% 17.3% 17.0% 14.9% 12.1% 10.6% 3.2% 6.2% 0.9% 2.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 9.2% 16.0% 14.1% 13.1% 5.3% 18.4% 6.2% 6.4% 1.4% 5.3% Logistic Regression 7.9% 29.2% 29.2% 29.2% 29.2% 9.3% 2.8% 11.8% 1.3% 2.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------       Dolphin at 08/08/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 105 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.8% 7.0% 4.0% 0.7% 2.1% 1.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% RIPA Consensus 5.4% 22.5% 20.6% 19.4% 16.2% 12.1% 3.4% 12.4% 2.3% 5.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.2% 17.3% 15.0% 13.1% 11.5% 8.5% 2.3% 8.3% 1.5% 4.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 4.7% 15.5% 12.1% 9.7% 3.3% 16.4% 4.7% 11.3% 3.1% 9.1% Logistic Regression 6.1% 29.6% 29.1% 29.1% 29.1% 7.9% 2.1% 13.5% 1.4% 2.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Dolphin at 08/08/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 112 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.6% 5.4% 2.4% 2.5% 1.2% 0.9% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% RIPA Consensus 3.3% 11.4% 10.4% 8.8% 8.7% 10.5% 2.3% 7.8% 1.6% 3.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.7% 9.4% 7.7% 6.6% 6.2% 7.3% 1.5% 5.2% 1.0% 2.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 3.6% 7.3% 6.9% 3.6% 3.5% 17.2% 3.6% 9.9% 2.6% 6.5% Logistic Regression 3.0% 15.5% 13.9% 13.9% 13.9% 3.8% 0.9% 5.8% 0.6% 1.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Dolphin at 08/07/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 104 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.8% 9.8% 6.0% 0.9% 4.5% 0.8% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.4% RIPA Consensus 8.7% 13.7% 12.6% 12.6% 8.3% 15.7% 3.0% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 6.3% 12.4% 10.4% 8.7% 7.0% 10.7% 2.0% 3.6% 0.0% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 10.7% 11.1% 11.1% 11.1% 2.5% 24.8% 3.9% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 6.7% 16.3% 14.1% 14.1% 14.1% 6.6% 2.2% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Dolphin at 08/07/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 101 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.6% 7.5% 1.6% 0.2% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 15.7% 24.6% 24.6% 24.6% 15.3% 21.7% 5.5% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 11.6% 18.8% 16.9% 16.4% 10.7% 14.6% 3.7% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 18.2% 23.3% 23.3% 23.3% 4.8% 32.3% 6.7% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 13.1% 25.8% 25.8% 25.8% 25.8% 11.1% 4.4% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Dolphin at 08/07/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 98 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 5.4% 12.9% 11.9% 6.8% 4.9% 14.2% 1.3% 0.4% 1.5% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 32.5% 51.1% 51.1% 51.1% 31.2% 35.5% 14.7% 11.1% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 23.4% 38.3% 38.0% 36.3% 22.4% 28.3% 10.2% 7.5% 0.5% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 37.9% 49.7% 49.7% 49.7% 10.0% 42.9% 14.0% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 27.1% 52.4% 52.4% 52.4% 52.4% 28.0% 15.5% 12.7% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Dolphin at 08/07/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 105 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.0% 14.0% 4.4% 3.2% 3.1% 2.8% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% RIPA Consensus 20.6% 35.9% 35.9% 35.9% 27.7% 27.3% 9.4% 9.5% 0.0% 3.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 15.1% 28.5% 25.3% 25.0% 19.5% 19.1% 6.3% 6.5% 0.0% 2.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 23.7% 28.4% 28.4% 28.4% 12.0% 35.7% 10.7% 7.9% 0.0% 2.4% Logistic Regression 17.6% 43.4% 43.4% 43.4% 43.4% 18.9% 8.1% 11.2% 0.0% 4.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Dolphin at 08/06/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 99 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.6% 10.7% 2.8% 1.3% 1.1% 1.5% 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.4% RIPA Consensus 13.3% 28.3% 28.3% 28.3% 22.6% 17.7% 5.6% 8.0% 1.6% 3.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 9.4% 22.4% 19.8% 19.3% 15.4% 12.2% 3.8% 5.5% 1.0% 2.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 14.5% 19.7% 19.7% 19.7% 8.3% 24.2% 7.4% 5.9% 1.4% 2.6% Logistic Regression 12.1% 36.9% 36.9% 36.9% 36.9% 11.2% 3.8% 10.2% 1.7% 3.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Dolphin at 08/06/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 107 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.2% 4.5% 3.4% 1.4% 2.1% 3.7% 0.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.8% RIPA Consensus 12.8% 25.2% 25.2% 24.7% 20.2% 17.7% 6.2% 9.6% 2.2% 3.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 9.2% 18.3% 17.9% 16.9% 14.2% 13.0% 4.2% 6.6% 1.5% 2.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 15.8% 19.2% 19.2% 18.3% 9.3% 26.9% 9.4% 9.8% 2.9% 3.4% Logistic Regression 9.9% 31.2% 31.2% 31.2% 31.2% 8.5% 2.9% 9.4% 1.5% 3.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Dolphin at 08/06/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 107 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.4% 4.8% 3.0% 0.9% 1.3% 2.3% 0.5% 0.9% 0.6% 0.6% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A 0.2% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 7.3% 18.3% 17.7% N/A 12.3% 12.1% 4.0% 8.4% 2.0% 2.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A 0.3% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Dolphin at 08/06/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 116 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 6.9% 20.2% 14.5% 3.6% 16.5% 11.6% 0.9% 1.2% 0.7% 1.1% RIPA Consensus 10.8% 28.5% 27.8% 27.8% 21.5% 18.9% 6.4% 11.7% 2.2% 3.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 9.4% 25.7% 23.3% 19.7% 19.8% 16.4% 4.5% 8.1% 1.7% 2.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 10.2% 19.0% 17.5% 17.5% 5.1% 23.2% 7.1% 7.3% 1.9% 3.2% Logistic Regression 11.3% 38.0% 38.0% 38.0% 38.0% 14.5% 5.7% 16.0% 2.6% 4.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Dolphin at 08/05/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 107 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.3% 2.2% 1.0% 0.5% 1.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A 0.3% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.8% 6.6% 5.4% 4.8% 4.1% 5.1% 1.2% 3.7% 0.6% 1.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A 0.5% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Dolphin at 08/05/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 104 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.5% 2.0% 1.2% 0.2% 0.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% RIPA Consensus 2.7% 5.9% 4.9% 4.7% 3.4% 10.3% 1.7% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.9% 4.6% 3.6% 3.1% 2.4% 7.0% 1.1% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.9% 3.7% 3.7% 3.3% 0.7% 18.0% 2.6% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.4% 8.1% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 2.6% 0.7% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Dolphin at 08/05/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 106 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.9% 2.9% 1.9% 0.3% 0.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% RIPA Consensus 2.3% 4.8% 3.9% 3.2% 2.1% 11.8% 1.1% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.8% 4.1% 3.2% 2.1% 1.5% 8.0% 0.7% 2.3% 0.0% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.3% 2.8% 2.7% 2.1% 0.4% 20.8% 1.4% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.4% 6.7% 5.1% 4.2% 3.7% 2.7% 0.8% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Dolphin at 08/04/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 117 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.1% 3.5% 1.7% 0.1% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 1.6% 2.0% 1.5% 0.9% 0.8% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.4% 2.5% 1.5% 0.6% 0.9% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.0% 1.3% 1.3% 0.5% 0.4% 19.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.2% 2.8% 1.7% 1.2% 1.2% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Dolphin at 08/04/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 110 kts, MPI = 112 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.1% 2.4% 0.8% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 14.5% 11.1% 9.7% 8.1% 4.9% 27.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 10.0% 8.1% 6.7% 5.3% 3.3% 18.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 20.4% 11.5% 11.5% 9.6% 3.6% 50.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 8.7% 10.6% 7.8% 6.5% 6.2% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Dolphin at 08/04/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 101 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 5.5% 4.4% 1.2% 0.2% 3.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 43.0% 37.3% 35.6% 35.1% 18.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 60.1% 43.9% 43.9% 43.9% 13.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 25.8% 30.7% 27.3% 26.3% 22.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Dolphin at 08/04/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 105 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 5.5% 4.3% 3.7% 0.1% 2.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% RIPA Consensus 29.6% 41.4% 40.8% 40.8% 22.0% 41.9% 16.2% 15.9% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 21.5% 29.0% 28.4% 27.2% 15.5% 28.2% 10.8% 10.6% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 36.5% 42.6% 42.6% 42.6% 9.5% 56.7% 17.1% 24.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 22.7% 40.2% 39.0% 39.0% 34.4% 27.2% 15.3% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Dolphin at 08/01/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 120 kts, MPI = 111 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 5.0% 4.1% 4.2% 0.3% 0.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% RIPA Consensus 4.4% 4.0% 3.2% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.6% 4.0% 3.5% 2.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 5.5% 3.1% 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 3.3% 4.9% 4.0% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Dolphin at 08/01/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 125 kts, MPI = 121 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 13.0% 7.8% 10.1% 0.4% 2.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 2.4% 2.6% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 5.9% 4.3% 4.6% 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.6% 1.7% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.2% 3.4% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Dolphin at 07/31/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 125 kts, MPI = 136 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 9.7% 5.0% 5.4% 0.3% 2.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 1.8% 2.0% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.3% 2.9% 2.7% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.7% 1.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.8% 2.8% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Dolphin at 07/31/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 130 kts, MPI = 138 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 9.0% 7.5% 15.8% 0.9% 2.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 3.4% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 5.3% 5.1% 5.2% 0.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 3.8% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 3.1% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Dolphin at 07/31/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 140 kts, MPI = 138 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 10.8% 9.6% 7.5% 2.4% 0.9% 0.9% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 7.4% 3.1% 2.5% 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 11.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Dolphin at 07/31/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 135 kts, MPI = 143 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 24.0% 16.6% 14.3% 6.3% 3.5% 1.0% 0.2% 0.8% 0.0% 0.3% RIPA Consensus 10.9% 13.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 15.2% 14.7% 4.7% 2.1% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 14.0% 15.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 7.8% 12.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Dolphin at 07/30/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 135 kts, MPI = 141 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 23.9% 26.1% 29.4% 14.7% 8.2% 3.0% 0.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% RIPA Consensus 6.2% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 12.1% 14.1% 9.7% 4.8% 2.7% 1.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 8.2% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 4.2% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Dolphin at 07/30/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 130 kts, MPI = 143 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 27.2% 24.8% 37.1% 2.9% 8.5% 3.2% 0.9% 1.8% 0.6% 0.4% RIPA Consensus 1.8% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 10.2% 10.7% 12.3% 0.9% 2.8% 1.0% 0.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.8% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.7% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Dolphin at 07/30/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 140 kts, MPI = 141 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 28.6% 13.4% 15.5% 13.7% 6.0% 4.3% 0.9% 1.1% 0.4% 0.2% RIPA Consensus 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 10.5% 4.4% 5.1% 4.5% 2.0% 1.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Dolphin at 07/30/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 140 kts, MPI = 139 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 32.2% 15.2% 7.7% 2.7% 2.1% 1.0% 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 17.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 22.6% 5.0% 2.5% 0.9% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 35.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Dolphin at 07/29/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 145 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 31.9% 21.1% 14.3% 4.8% 4.1% 4.2% 1.1% 1.8% 0.1% 0.4% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 10.6% 7.0% 4.7% 1.5% 1.3% 1.4% 0.3% 0.6% 0.0% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Dolphin at 07/29/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 120 kts, MPI = 0 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 5.7% 1.7% 2.0% 3.6% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.9% 0.5% 0.6% 1.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Dolphin at 07/29/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 120 kts, MPI = 0 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 11.4% 9.9% 11.8% 10.6% 3.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.8% 3.3% 3.9% 3.5% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Dolphin at 07/28/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 125 kts, MPI = 0 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 21.8% 5.7% 8.8% 11.9% 1.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Dolphin at 07/28/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 0 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 26.9% 18.4% 29.5% 9.5% 8.7% 0.8% 0.4% 0.7% 1.1% 0.0% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Dolphin at 07/28/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 0 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 23.3% 17.3% 26.6% 24.6% 18.1% 3.6% 1.8% 6.3% 2.5% 0.1% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Dolphin at 07/28/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 0 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 13.3% 13.9% 32.7% 20.3% 12.0% 5.6% 3.1% 7.3% 13.0% 0.3% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Dolphin at 07/27/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 0 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Dolphin at 07/27/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 0 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Dolphin at 07/27/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 0 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 6.0% 11.8% 10.7% 2.6% 3.2% 1.6% 1.5% 6.2% 2.0% 1.2% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Twelve at 07/27/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 0 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.0% 10.3% 7.9% 1.7% 3.7% 2.3% 4.0% 9.7% 3.8% 1.4% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------