Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)                                                                                                                         Peilou at 08/13/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 142 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.9% RIPA Consensus 0.7% 4.7% 1.4% 0.5% 0.3% 2.7% 0.7% 11.3% 3.6% 7.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.5% 3.1% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 1.8% 0.5% 7.5% 2.4% 5.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.7% 3.7% 1.7% 0.2% 0.0% 2.4% 1.1% 22.1% 7.1% 13.7% Logistic Regression 0.7% 5.7% 1.2% 0.8% 0.6% 3.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Peilou at 08/13/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 137 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.7% 0.0% 2.3% RIPA Consensus 1.0% 7.6% 2.6% 1.0% 0.6% 4.7% 1.5% 20.5% 9.5% 28.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.7% 5.1% 1.7% 0.7% 0.4% 3.1% 1.0% 14.2% 6.3% 19.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.9% 5.9% 2.9% 0.5% 0.0% 3.9% 2.1% 40.0% 18.4% 54.4% Logistic Regression 1.1% 9.3% 2.4% 1.6% 1.3% 5.6% 0.9% 1.1% 0.6% 2.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Peilou at 08/12/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 136 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% 0.0% 1.9% RIPA Consensus 0.6% 4.3% 1.3% 0.6% 0.4% 4.6% 1.4% 17.5% 7.4% 15.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.5% 2.9% 0.9% 0.3% 0.3% 3.1% 0.9% 12.0% 4.9% 11.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.5% 2.4% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 3.4% 1.9% 33.0% 13.9% 30.0% Logistic Regression 0.8% 6.2% 1.5% 1.0% 0.9% 5.9% 1.0% 1.9% 0.9% 1.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Peilou at 08/12/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 134 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% 0.0% 1.4% RIPA Consensus 0.7% 4.1% 1.3% 0.6% 0.4% 4.9% 1.7% 21.1% 10.2% 20.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.5% 2.8% 0.8% 0.3% 0.3% 3.3% 1.1% 14.5% 6.7% 14.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.6% 2.2% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 3.7% 2.2% 40.0% 19.3% 38.3% Logistic Regression 0.8% 6.1% 1.5% 1.0% 0.9% 6.2% 1.1% 2.2% 1.0% 2.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Peilou at 08/12/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 129 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.6% 3.4% 1.1% 0.6% 0.4% 2.8% 0.9% 13.1% 4.9% 14.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.5% 2.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 1.8% 0.6% 8.7% 3.2% 9.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.5% 1.5% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 1.5% 1.0% 24.8% 9.2% 26.4% Logistic Regression 0.8% 5.2% 1.4% 0.9% 0.8% 4.1% 0.8% 1.4% 0.7% 2.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Peilou at 08/12/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 130 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.6% 1.8% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 7.5% 0.8% 5.7% RIPA Consensus 0.8% 7.2% 2.7% 1.6% 1.0% 7.5% 2.9% 24.7% 13.3% 20.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.0% 5.3% 2.1% 1.1% 0.7% 5.1% 2.0% 18.9% 9.1% 15.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.3% 3.7% 1.6% 0.6% 0.0% 4.3% 3.0% 43.5% 23.8% 36.9% Logistic Regression 1.3% 10.7% 3.9% 2.7% 2.1% 10.6% 2.8% 5.9% 2.8% 3.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Peilou at 08/11/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 132 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.7% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 1.1% 0.3% 3.1% 0.4% 6.0% RIPA Consensus 1.1% 4.7% 1.6% 0.9% 0.6% 4.3% 1.5% 16.7% 6.9% 23.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.0% 3.1% 1.1% 0.6% 0.4% 3.1% 1.0% 12.1% 4.7% 17.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.8% 2.1% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 2.2% 1.5% 31.0% 12.9% 43.4% Logistic Regression 1.5% 7.3% 2.2% 1.5% 1.3% 6.3% 1.4% 2.3% 1.0% 2.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Peilou at 08/11/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 127 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.1% 5.0% 2.3% 0.8% 0.6% 0.9% 0.7% 7.2% 0.5% 9.1% RIPA Consensus 2.6% 15.8% 8.0% 5.3% 4.3% 17.7% 9.0% 29.3% 16.3% 39.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.7% 12.2% 6.0% 3.8% 3.0% 12.0% 6.2% 21.9% 11.0% 29.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.5% 8.3% 4.8% 1.8% 0.5% 9.6% 7.5% 45.9% 25.2% 57.1% Logistic Regression 3.7% 23.4% 11.2% 8.9% 8.0% 25.7% 10.6% 12.7% 7.4% 21.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Peilou at 08/11/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 124 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 12.9% 17.9% 6.8% 14.1% 3.0% 7.1% 4.6% 3.2% 0.6% 0.4% RIPA Consensus 3.2% 20.7% 10.4% 8.1% 5.1% 19.7% 9.6% 29.6% 17.2% 35.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 6.4% 19.7% 9.2% 10.1% 4.4% 15.5% 7.9% 20.8% 11.6% 23.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.5% 11.3% 4.9% 2.4% 0.4% 7.7% 5.4% 43.1% 24.0% 48.9% Logistic Regression 5.0% 30.0% 15.9% 13.8% 9.9% 31.7% 13.8% 16.2% 10.4% 21.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Peilou at 08/11/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 136 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.4% 20.9% 13.6% 5.9% 4.5% 3.2% 5.1% 16.1% 1.0% 16.6% RIPA Consensus 1.9% 10.0% 4.7% 3.8% 3.2% 10.3% 4.3% 9.6% 3.9% 11.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.7% 13.6% 7.6% 4.5% 3.6% 7.9% 4.5% 11.7% 2.9% 12.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.6% 4.5% 2.8% 1.8% 0.5% 4.2% 2.5% 10.9% 3.3% 8.8% Logistic Regression 2.3% 15.5% 6.7% 5.9% 5.9% 16.5% 6.1% 8.3% 4.5% 13.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Peilou at 08/10/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 144 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 16.4% 24.2% 17.2% 13.2% 4.0% 20.7% 14.6% 10.6% 6.5% 21.9% RIPA Consensus 1.5% 14.1% 6.7% 5.5% 3.7% 14.7% 6.1% 22.9% 10.5% 40.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 6.4% 17.4% 10.2% 8.0% 3.8% 16.7% 8.9% 18.8% 9.1% 34.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.5% 6.6% 2.4% 1.3% 0.2% 6.7% 3.6% 31.0% 14.6% 57.0% Logistic Regression 2.5% 21.6% 11.0% 9.7% 7.2% 22.7% 8.6% 14.8% 6.3% 24.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Peilou at 08/10/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 140 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.3% 9.4% 5.0% 7.4% 3.8% 4.3% 6.9% 11.9% 1.2% 3.6% RIPA Consensus 5.1% 21.2% 13.0% 10.1% 10.0% 25.3% 14.2% 32.7% 18.2% 44.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.5% 17.2% 10.3% 9.2% 7.9% 18.3% 11.7% 25.7% 12.5% 30.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 5.0% 13.3% 10.2% 4.6% 4.4% 19.5% 14.6% 43.1% 24.5% 54.8% Logistic Regression 5.3% 29.1% 15.9% 15.6% 15.6% 31.1% 13.8% 22.3% 12.0% 33.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Peilou at 08/10/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 135 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 18.8% 36.7% 28.7% 11.4% 17.5% 24.0% 20.2% 29.1% 7.5% 14.3% RIPA Consensus 5.8% 27.8% 16.8% 14.5% 12.4% 26.7% 14.5% 32.2% 18.6% 44.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 10.1% 30.7% 20.7% 13.4% 14.0% 25.8% 16.4% 31.1% 14.9% 34.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 4.4% 16.9% 10.1% 5.6% 2.6% 14.9% 9.5% 38.3% 20.7% 49.3% Logistic Regression 7.1% 38.7% 23.5% 23.3% 22.1% 38.6% 19.5% 26.1% 16.6% 38.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Peilou at 08/10/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 135 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 19.8% 35.6% 28.2% 30.3% 13.2% 26.3% 15.9% 23.1% 14.2% 14.7% RIPA Consensus 5.0% 26.4% 15.7% 13.3% 11.4% 23.2% 12.0% 26.6% 13.9% 36.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 9.9% 29.4% 19.9% 18.9% 12.0% 24.2% 13.3% 25.4% 14.0% 29.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 4.0% 16.5% 9.9% 5.4% 2.2% 12.7% 7.7% 32.4% 15.6% 41.3% Logistic Regression 6.0% 36.3% 21.6% 21.2% 20.6% 33.6% 16.3% 20.9% 12.2% 31.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Peilou at 08/09/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 136 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 5.1% 18.0% 5.2% 2.2% 1.5% 12.6% 9.4% 21.8% 4.2% 12.6% RIPA Consensus 2.7% 18.1% 9.0% 7.2% 6.1% 18.6% 8.2% 25.7% 13.3% 42.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.4% 18.0% 7.7% 5.5% 4.6% 16.6% 8.5% 24.4% 10.2% 32.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.7% 9.1% 4.6% 2.4% 0.6% 9.6% 5.1% 32.2% 15.6% 46.3% Logistic Regression 3.6% 27.0% 13.3% 12.1% 11.7% 27.7% 11.2% 19.2% 11.0% 39.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Peilou at 08/09/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 136 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.8% 5.8% 2.7% 1.0% 0.4% 5.9% 1.8% 12.8% 2.3% 9.9% RIPA Consensus 2.6% 21.2% 10.7% 8.4% 7.7% 20.2% 8.9% 26.1% 13.2% 40.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.3% 16.0% 8.0% 5.9% 5.2% 15.4% 6.5% 21.6% 9.6% 30.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.8% 11.5% 6.1% 2.6% 1.1% 11.2% 6.1% 33.1% 16.2% 45.9% Logistic Regression 3.5% 30.8% 15.3% 14.3% 14.3% 29.3% 11.7% 19.1% 10.3% 34.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Kujira at 08/09/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 135 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.3% 18.8% 5.7% 2.4% 1.4% 9.7% 6.0% 26.8% 5.0% 36.1% RIPA Consensus 4.3% 32.3% 17.9% 15.5% 12.5% 33.7% 18.9% 34.4% 20.7% 39.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.2% 27.8% 13.8% 11.1% 8.7% 25.7% 14.5% 31.8% 15.5% 38.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 3.1% 21.5% 11.8% 7.3% 1.4% 20.2% 12.4% 42.5% 23.1% 42.8% Logistic Regression 5.4% 43.1% 24.1% 23.6% 23.5% 47.2% 25.3% 26.4% 18.4% 36.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Kujira at 08/09/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 135 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.0% 21.4% 9.8% 4.3% 1.9% 18.7% 9.6% 17.2% 6.9% 11.7% RIPA Consensus 1.7% 19.4% 8.8% 7.5% 6.1% 25.2% 12.9% 27.7% 15.6% 35.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.1% 20.0% 9.1% 6.4% 4.6% 23.0% 11.7% 24.2% 12.7% 27.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.5% 8.6% 3.3% 1.9% 0.1% 9.3% 5.3% 34.6% 16.6% 39.0% Logistic Regression 2.8% 30.3% 14.4% 13.1% 12.0% 41.0% 20.4% 20.8% 14.7% 31.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Thirteen at 08/08/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 143 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.7% 14.7% 8.4% 1.0% 0.2% 11.0% 4.3% 16.4% 6.7% 12.0% RIPA Consensus 0.8% 15.4% 6.0% 4.6% 3.8% 21.3% 9.3% 28.9% 16.2% 34.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.7% 15.1% 6.8% 3.4% 2.6% 17.8% 7.6% 24.7% 13.0% 26.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.3% 7.7% 2.8% 1.2% 0.1% 9.3% 4.7% 40.2% 20.4% 40.2% Logistic Regression 1.3% 23.1% 9.2% 8.1% 7.5% 33.3% 14.0% 17.7% 12.0% 28.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Kujira at 08/08/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 140 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.8% 23.2% 5.0% 1.6% 0.5% 6.8% 2.8% 16.0% 2.7% 11.2% RIPA Consensus 0.4% 9.0% 3.3% 2.2% 1.9% 14.9% 6.5% 28.6% 16.3% 39.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.9% 13.7% 3.8% 2.0% 1.4% 12.2% 5.3% 24.4% 11.7% 29.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.2% 4.3% 1.8% 0.6% 0.0% 8.2% 5.1% 43.1% 23.7% 49.7% Logistic Regression 0.7% 13.7% 4.8% 3.9% 3.9% 21.6% 8.0% 14.1% 8.8% 28.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------       Thirteen at 08/08/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 133 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.4% 18.6% 7.8% 2.6% 0.9% 11.9% 3.5% 10.2% 3.0% 11.5% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 2.1% 0.6% 0.4% 0.3% 2.6% 0.6% 16.4% 6.5% 34.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.5% 7.6% 2.9% 1.1% 0.5% 5.7% 1.5% 14.2% 5.3% 27.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.9% 0.3% 28.2% 11.1% 55.2% Logistic Regression 0.2% 3.6% 0.9% 0.6% 0.6% 4.3% 0.9% 4.5% 1.8% 14.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Thirteen at 08/08/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 129 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.7% 23.8% 6.7% 1.0% 0.2% 10.8% 4.0% 16.1% 4.5% 31.8% RIPA Consensus 0.4% 5.8% 1.9% 1.5% 1.0% 9.2% 3.1% 20.6% 9.3% 31.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.1% 11.8% 3.5% 1.3% 0.7% 9.7% 3.4% 19.1% 7.7% 31.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 2.1% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 2.9% 1.3% 29.3% 12.8% 39.2% Logistic Regression 0.7% 9.5% 3.3% 2.6% 2.0% 15.6% 5.0% 11.9% 5.8% 24.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Thirteen at 08/07/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 121 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.8% 18.6% 3.0% 2.4% 0.3% 12.4% 3.1% 14.1% 3.1% 34.1% RIPA Consensus 0.7% 7.2% 2.5% 2.0% 1.3% 11.0% 4.0% 23.0% 11.1% 34.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.3% 11.0% 2.6% 2.1% 0.9% 11.5% 3.7% 20.0% 8.4% 34.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.4% 3.6% 1.3% 0.8% 0.0% 4.8% 2.3% 32.3% 15.1% 42.9% Logistic Regression 1.0% 10.9% 3.8% 3.1% 2.6% 17.3% 5.7% 13.8% 7.2% 26.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Thirteen at 08/07/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 114 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.3% 3.9% 0.4% 0.5% 0.2% 7.6% 2.7% 21.8% 3.8% 47.6% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 3.3% 0.9% 0.7% 0.6% 5.7% 1.5% 13.5% 5.2% 19.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 3.4% 0.7% 0.6% 0.4% 6.3% 1.9% 16.2% 4.7% 28.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 1.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 3.2% 1.0% 20.6% 7.3% 24.9% Logistic Regression 0.2% 5.3% 1.5% 1.2% 1.1% 8.2% 2.0% 6.4% 3.1% 14.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Thirteen at 08/07/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 126 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.3% 6.8% 9.2% 1.2% 0.5% 4.6% 2.3% 4.7% 3.1% 4.9% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 1.0% 0.2% 0.7% 0.2% 3.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.5% 3.3% 3.4% 0.6% 0.3% 2.1% 0.8% 2.0% 1.1% 4.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 5.2% Logistic Regression 0.2% 2.6% 0.7% 0.6% 0.4% 1.9% 0.3% 0.9% 0.3% 2.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Thirteen at 08/07/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 125 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.4% 3.7% 1.2% 0.1% 0.4% 2.3% 0.5% 3.4% 0.9% 12.9% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 5.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% 1.3% 0.3% 1.4% 0.3% 7.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 5.9% Logistic Regression 0.1% 1.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 1.5% 0.3% 0.7% 0.3% 4.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Thirteen at 08/06/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 126 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 2.7% 0.9% 0.3% 0.2% 1.0% 0.4% 2.3% 0.6% 17.6% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.7% 0.3% 9.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.8% 0.2% 1.2% 0.3% 12.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 11.7% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 1.3% 0.2% 1.0% 0.5% 7.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Kujira at 08/06/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 120 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 2.0% 0.4% 9.7% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 3.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 5.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 3.1% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 3.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Kujira at 08/06/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 120 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.3% 4.3% 2.1% 0.4% 0.1% 1.4% 0.4% 2.2% 0.6% 7.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 2.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Kujira at 08/06/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 126 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.7% 2.6% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.9% 0.1% 9.8% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Kujira at 08/05/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 129 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.5% 6.5% 2.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.8% 0.1% 2.5% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.2% 2.5% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Kujira at 08/05/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 128 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.4% 1.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.7% 0.1% 2.2% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 1.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.3% 1.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.4% 2.2% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Kujira at 08/05/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 128 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 1.9% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% RIPA Consensus 0.4% 3.0% 0.8% 0.7% 0.5% 2.4% 0.5% 1.1% 0.4% 2.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.3% 2.6% 0.8% 0.5% 0.3% 1.7% 0.3% 0.8% 0.2% 1.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 1.8% Logistic Regression 0.7% 5.3% 1.5% 1.2% 1.0% 4.5% 0.9% 1.6% 0.6% 2.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Kujira at 08/04/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 122 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.4% 2.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.9% 0.2% 5.1% 0.6% 15.1% RIPA Consensus 1.0% 5.5% 1.5% 1.1% 1.1% 2.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.7% 4.3% 1.2% 0.9% 0.7% 1.8% 0.3% 1.9% 0.3% 5.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.8% 2.5% 0.9% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 1.1% 8.4% 2.2% 1.9% 1.8% 4.3% 0.8% 0.7% 0.3% 0.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------