Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)     Chan-hom at 08/12/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 120 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Chan-hom at 08/11/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 122 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Chan-hom at 08/11/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 140 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 1.4% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.2% 1.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Chan-hom at 08/11/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 139 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 1.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.4% 2.0% 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Chan-hom at 08/11/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 141 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 1.6% 3.5% 1.8% 1.7% 1.0% 1.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.0% 2.3% 1.1% 1.1% 0.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.7% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 1.4% 5.6% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Chan-hom at 08/10/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 144 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.2% RIPA Consensus 2.0% 6.7% 3.5% 3.5% 2.2% 4.5% 1.5% 1.7% 0.3% 0.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.4% 4.5% 2.3% 2.3% 1.5% 3.0% 1.0% 1.1% 0.1% 1.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.8% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 0.1% 2.7% 1.5% 1.2% 0.1% 0.1% Logistic Regression 2.3% 10.8% 4.4% 4.4% 4.4% 6.3% 1.6% 2.3% 0.5% 0.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Chan-hom at 08/10/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 138 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 5.0% 18.8% 11.0% 10.8% 7.3% 11.4% 4.7% 4.0% 1.0% 0.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.4% 12.7% 7.3% 7.2% 4.8% 7.6% 3.1% 2.6% 0.6% 0.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 4.4% 10.9% 8.3% 7.9% 0.8% 5.8% 3.5% 3.5% 0.6% 0.1% Logistic Regression 5.5% 26.7% 13.7% 13.7% 13.7% 17.0% 5.9% 4.4% 1.4% 1.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Chan-hom at 08/10/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 132 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 2.7% 8.8% 4.0% 3.6% 2.4% 5.8% 1.9% 3.4% 0.8% 0.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.0% 5.9% 2.7% 2.3% 1.6% 3.9% 1.2% 2.3% 0.5% 0.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.5% 4.4% 3.0% 2.5% 0.3% 2.7% 1.4% 3.9% 0.7% 0.2% Logistic Regression 2.8% 13.1% 5.0% 4.6% 4.6% 9.0% 2.4% 2.9% 1.0% 1.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Chan-hom at 08/10/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 132 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.8% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 2.4% 9.5% 4.5% 3.5% 2.6% 6.8% 2.4% 5.9% 1.6% 1.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.8% 6.8% 3.0% 2.3% 1.7% 4.6% 1.5% 4.0% 1.0% 0.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.5% 5.5% 4.0% 2.4% 0.6% 4.3% 2.4% 8.5% 2.0% 0.9% Logistic Regression 2.2% 13.6% 4.9% 4.6% 4.6% 9.4% 2.4% 3.4% 1.2% 1.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Chan-hom at 08/09/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 136 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.9% 1.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.6% 4.0% 1.3% 0.9% 0.8% 2.9% 0.7% 6.5% 1.7% 2.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.7% 3.1% 1.0% 0.6% 0.5% 1.9% 0.5% 4.3% 1.1% 1.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.3% 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 1.3% 0.6% 10.6% 2.8% 2.9% Logistic Regression 0.9% 6.8% 2.1% 1.6% 1.6% 4.5% 0.9% 2.5% 0.7% 1.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Chan-hom at 08/09/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 138 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 2.6% 0.8% 0.5% 0.4% 2.1% 0.5% 7.3% 2.0% 4.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.2% 1.9% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 1.4% 0.3% 4.8% 1.3% 2.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 0.4% 12.2% 3.5% 7.0% Logistic Regression 0.5% 4.5% 1.3% 0.9% 0.9% 3.3% 0.6% 2.3% 0.5% 1.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Chan-hom at 08/09/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 135 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.4% 1.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 1.6% 9.2% 4.0% 2.7% 2.5% 8.3% 2.8% 12.9% 4.4% 11.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.2% 6.6% 2.7% 1.8% 1.7% 5.5% 1.8% 8.6% 2.9% 7.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.4% 5.0% 3.4% 1.1% 0.8% 6.7% 3.3% 20.4% 7.3% 19.1% Logistic Regression 1.8% 13.4% 4.6% 4.3% 4.3% 9.9% 2.2% 5.3% 1.5% 3.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Chan-hom at 08/09/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 141 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.4% 1.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 5.4% 16.7% 9.7% 7.3% 6.5% 13.3% 5.4% 16.8% 6.7% 18.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.6% 11.4% 6.6% 4.9% 4.3% 9.0% 3.6% 11.2% 4.4% 12.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 5.6% 10.5% 9.1% 4.1% 2.6% 11.4% 6.8% 26.2% 10.7% 27.9% Logistic Regression 5.1% 22.8% 10.4% 10.4% 10.4% 15.2% 4.1% 7.4% 2.7% 10.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Chan-hom at 08/08/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 147 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.6% 1.3% 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 1.9% 10.4% 4.9% 4.0% 3.4% 10.1% 3.6% 15.9% 6.0% 18.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.4% 7.3% 3.3% 2.8% 2.3% 6.8% 2.5% 10.6% 4.0% 12.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.5% 5.0% 3.4% 1.7% 0.6% 7.6% 4.0% 24.4% 9.7% 29.6% Logistic Regression 2.3% 15.8% 6.3% 6.3% 6.3% 12.5% 3.3% 7.3% 2.4% 6.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Chan-hom at 08/08/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 144 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.5% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 6.1% 22.5% 14.0% 12.3% 10.1% 23.6% 11.6% 26.4% 13.0% 25.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.2% 15.2% 9.4% 8.1% 6.7% 15.7% 7.7% 17.7% 8.7% 16.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 4.4% 12.4% 9.2% 5.8% 1.6% 14.8% 9.5% 35.3% 17.7% 36.2% Logistic Regression 7.7% 32.6% 18.7% 18.7% 18.7% 32.4% 13.6% 17.6% 8.4% 14.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Chan-hom at 08/08/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 140 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 4.4% 24.2% 14.7% 13.5% 11.2% 26.1% 14.2% 29.8% 16.4% 34.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.1% 16.3% 9.8% 8.9% 7.4% 17.4% 9.5% 19.9% 10.9% 22.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.7% 11.9% 8.2% 5.6% 1.0% 12.6% 9.0% 36.5% 19.2% 41.1% Logistic Regression 6.2% 36.5% 21.3% 21.3% 21.3% 39.5% 19.5% 23.1% 13.6% 26.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Chan-hom at 08/08/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 140 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.8% 0.2% 1.4% 0.0% 0.2% RIPA Consensus 4.7% 26.5% 16.6% 14.9% 12.7% 30.3% 17.9% 32.7% 19.0% 29.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.4% 17.9% 11.1% 9.9% 8.5% 20.5% 12.0% 22.3% 12.6% 19.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.9% 13.4% 9.4% 5.8% 1.4% 16.1% 12.3% 40.6% 22.3% 36.7% Logistic Regression 6.5% 39.7% 23.9% 23.9% 23.9% 44.6% 23.6% 24.9% 15.7% 22.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Chan-hom at 08/07/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 141 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 0.7% 10.1% 4.2% 3.1% 2.8% 14.5% 5.9% 27.3% 13.8% 42.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.6% 6.8% 2.8% 2.0% 1.9% 9.8% 4.0% 18.3% 9.1% 28.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 3.3% 1.4% 0.5% 0.0% 6.0% 3.6% 37.3% 19.4% 59.5% Logistic Regression 1.2% 17.0% 7.0% 5.7% 5.7% 22.9% 8.3% 17.3% 8.1% 25.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Chan-hom at 08/07/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 3.6% 1.2% 0.8% 0.7% 5.6% 1.6% 16.1% 6.3% 34.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.2% 2.5% 0.7% 0.5% 0.4% 3.8% 1.1% 10.7% 4.2% 23.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 2.3% 1.1% 23.7% 9.7% 54.1% Logistic Regression 0.4% 6.6% 2.1% 1.5% 1.4% 9.0% 2.2% 8.6% 2.9% 15.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Chan-hom at 08/07/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 137 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 0.5% 3.9% 1.4% 0.9% 0.9% 5.5% 1.8% 13.7% 4.8% 23.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.4% 2.7% 0.9% 0.6% 0.5% 3.6% 1.1% 9.2% 3.1% 15.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.4% 1.4% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 4.1% 2.0% 21.2% 7.9% 39.6% Logistic Regression 0.7% 6.4% 2.0% 1.6% 1.6% 6.9% 1.5% 6.3% 1.7% 7.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Chan-hom at 08/07/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 141 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.7% 1.3% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% RIPA Consensus 1.8% 8.7% 4.2% 2.8% 2.6% 9.8% 3.8% 21.0% 8.8% 27.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.4% 6.2% 3.0% 1.8% 1.7% 6.6% 2.5% 14.1% 5.8% 18.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.9% 5.3% 3.8% 1.4% 0.9% 8.8% 4.6% 31.5% 14.3% 44.3% Logistic Regression 1.7% 12.1% 4.7% 4.2% 4.2% 10.8% 3.0% 10.5% 3.2% 11.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------