Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current Fifteen intensity image current Fifteen RI diff image

 


Invest at 08/12/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 143 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.3% 2.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 2.2% 0.5% 10.4% 3.5% 13.6%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.2% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 1.4% 0.3% 6.9% 2.3% 9.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.3% 19.9% 6.6% 25.9%
Logistic Regression 0.5% 3.7% 0.8% 0.5% 0.4% 4.0% 0.7% 1.0% 0.5% 1.3%
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Invest at 08/11/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 133 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 0.1% 3.0% RIPA Consensus 0.3% 2.3% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 2.9% 0.7% 13.1% 5.0% 28.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.3% 1.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 1.9% 0.4% 8.9% 3.3% 19.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 0.4% 23.9% 8.9% 48.8%
Logistic Regression 0.6% 4.1% 0.9% 0.6% 0.5% 5.3% 1.0% 2.2% 1.1% 7.2%
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Fifteen at 08/11/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 138 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.1% RIPA Consensus 0.4% 2.3% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 1.9% 0.4% 6.2% 1.7% 11.1%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.3% 1.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 1.2% 0.3% 4.1% 1.1% 10.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.2% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 11.5% 3.0% 19.7%
Logistic Regression 0.6% 3.9% 0.9% 0.6% 0.5% 3.4% 0.6% 0.9% 0.4% 2.4%
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Fifteen at 08/11/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 135 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 1.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 6.7% RIPA Consensus 0.6% 5.2% 1.7% 1.0% 0.7% 7.5% 2.9% 24.6% 13.7% 40.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.5% 4.0% 1.2% 0.7% 0.5% 5.1% 1.9% 16.4% 9.1% 28.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.3% 2.0% 1.1% 0.4% 0.0% 4.0% 3.1% 43.7% 24.3% 60.1%
Logistic Regression 0.9% 8.5% 2.4% 1.6% 1.5% 11.0% 2.6% 5.5% 3.1% 19.9%
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Fifteen at 08/11/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 135 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
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Fifteen at 08/10/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 136 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 1.3% 0.1% 3.6% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 1.8% 0.4% 7.5% 2.3% 23.8%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 1.2% 0.2% 5.4% 1.5% 17.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.3% 13.5% 4.1% 41.3%
Logistic Regression 0.3% 2.7% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 3.2% 0.5% 1.5% 0.5% 6.3%
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Fifteen at 08/10/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 135 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.2% 3.9% 0.1% 14.7% RIPA Consensus 0.6% 4.3% 1.3% 0.7% 0.5% 4.4% 1.3% 11.3% 4.1% 24.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.6% 3.0% 0.9% 0.4% 0.3% 3.1% 0.9% 8.8% 2.7% 20.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.5% 2.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 2.7% 1.4% 20.3% 7.3% 40.4%
Logistic Regression 0.8% 6.5% 1.7% 1.2% 1.1% 6.0% 1.2% 2.4% 0.9% 7.6%
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Fifteen at 08/10/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 135 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 6.5% 6.6% 5.4% 3.2% 2.1% 4.2% 4.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% RIPA Consensus 7.1% 33.1% 18.8% 16.1% 9.7% 29.4% 16.9% 26.5% 16.0% 29.7%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 6.8% 24.2% 14.3% 11.7% 7.1% 20.9% 12.7% 17.8% 10.7% 19.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 7.2% 25.5% 15.5% 11.5% 1.6% 17.9% 13.9% 40.5% 21.8% 36.1%
Logistic Regression 7.0% 40.7% 22.2% 20.6% 17.7% 40.8% 19.9% 12.6% 10.1% 23.2%
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Fifteen at 08/10/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 135 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 6.1% 6.4% 3.7% 1.1% 0.4% 11.9% 4.2% 16.2% 7.5% 35.8% RIPA Consensus 7.8% 37.7% 21.2% 19.7% 11.4% 37.0% 24.3% 36.0% 24.1% 49.1%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 7.2% 27.2% 15.3% 13.5% 7.7% 28.6% 17.5% 29.4% 18.5% 44.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 6.3% 27.3% 14.2% 12.1% 1.0% 17.7% 13.7% 44.7% 24.9% 49.6%
Logistic Regression 9.3% 48.1% 28.2% 27.3% 21.9% 56.3% 34.9% 27.3% 23.3% 48.6%
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