Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)     Sixteen at 08/16/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 158 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 1.1% 0.0% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 0.5% 7.7% 2.7% 1.5% 1.2% 14.8% 7.0% 28.8% 18.0% 38.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.4% 5.3% 1.8% 1.0% 0.7% 10.0% 4.7% 19.5% 12.0% 25.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.2% 2.8% 1.5% 0.4% 0.0% 6.1% 6.1% 45.9% 26.7% 61.5% Logistic Regression 0.9% 12.6% 3.9% 2.7% 2.4% 23.5% 8.0% 11.7% 9.3% 16.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------       Sixteen at 08/16/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 157 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.2% RIPA Consensus 0.8% 8.6% 3.0% 1.8% 1.3% 17.9% 8.8% 31.3% 20.4% 50.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.6% 5.8% 2.0% 1.2% 0.8% 12.1% 5.8% 21.0% 13.6% 33.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.3% 3.2% 1.5% 0.4% 0.0% 6.7% 6.6% 45.4% 26.5% 62.6% Logistic Regression 1.3% 13.9% 4.5% 3.2% 2.6% 29.0% 10.9% 17.1% 14.3% 37.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Sixteen at 08/15/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 138 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.5% 5.4% 1.6% 0.9% 0.7% 12.2% 5.3% 28.5% 18.5% 56.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.3% 3.6% 1.0% 0.6% 0.4% 8.2% 3.5% 19.0% 12.3% 37.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 1.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 4.7% 4.7% 44.0% 26.4% 62.6% Logistic Regression 0.8% 9.1% 2.5% 1.6% 1.4% 19.6% 5.9% 13.0% 10.6% 49.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Sixteen at 08/15/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 134 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.2% RIPA Consensus 0.5% 6.2% 1.9% 1.0% 0.9% 13.7% 5.8% 29.9% 18.3% 56.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.3% 4.2% 1.2% 0.7% 0.5% 9.2% 3.8% 20.0% 12.2% 37.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 2.1% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 6.4% 5.4% 46.9% 26.7% 62.6% Logistic Regression 0.8% 10.2% 2.8% 1.9% 1.7% 21.0% 6.2% 12.9% 9.9% 50.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Sixteen at 08/15/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 145 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 3.0% 0.8% 0.4% 0.4% 5.9% 1.9% 26.3% 14.5% 51.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.2% 2.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 4.1% 1.3% 17.6% 9.6% 34.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 2.1% 1.6% 46.2% 25.2% 62.6% Logistic Regression 0.4% 5.4% 1.3% 0.8% 0.7% 9.8% 2.2% 6.5% 3.8% 39.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Sixteen at 08/15/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 148 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.4% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 2.7% 0.7% 0.4% 0.3% 5.6% 1.7% 24.0% 13.2% 49.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 1.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 3.9% 1.1% 16.0% 8.8% 33.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% 1.2% 41.2% 22.7% 62.6% Logistic Regression 0.3% 4.8% 1.2% 0.8% 0.7% 9.7% 2.2% 6.8% 3.8% 36.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------           Nangka at 08/14/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 142 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 2.3% 0.5% 10.3% 3.7% 34.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 1.6% 0.3% 6.9% 2.5% 23.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.3% 17.5% 6.2% 53.1% Logistic Regression 0.2% 2.8% 0.7% 0.4% 0.4% 4.3% 0.8% 3.2% 1.3% 16.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nangka at 08/14/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 140 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.4% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 1.4% 0.3% 3.2% 0.7% 10.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.1% 2.4% 0.5% 7.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 5.0% 1.0% 17.4% Logistic Regression 0.2% 2.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 2.6% 0.4% 1.4% 0.5% 3.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------                                                                                                                             Nangka at 08/13/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 141 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.7% 3.7% 2.9% 1.0% 0.3% 1.5% 0.8% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 1.7% 8.6% 3.3% 2.5% 1.1% 5.2% 1.6% 9.5% 3.0% 13.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.3% 6.9% 3.1% 2.0% 0.7% 4.0% 1.3% 6.3% 2.0% 8.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.7% 6.1% 2.6% 1.7% 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 16.7% 4.9% 23.3% Logistic Regression 1.7% 11.1% 4.0% 3.3% 2.1% 8.5% 2.1% 2.3% 1.1% 3.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nangka at 08/13/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 130 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.5% 3.7% 4.2% 1.3% 0.6% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.9% 7.0% 2.4% 1.6% 0.9% 5.8% 1.7% 10.7% 3.7% 18.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.4% 5.9% 3.0% 1.4% 0.7% 4.3% 1.3% 7.1% 2.5% 12.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.6% 3.9% 1.3% 0.4% 0.0% 2.1% 1.0% 18.2% 5.9% 31.3% Logistic Regression 1.3% 10.2% 3.5% 2.7% 1.8% 9.5% 2.4% 3.2% 1.5% 6.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nangka at 08/12/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 133 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.7% 9.6% 6.3% 1.1% 0.2% 2.0% 1.6% 2.0% 0.8% 12.2% RIPA Consensus 0.6% 4.4% 1.5% 1.2% 0.9% 3.0% 0.8% 1.7% 0.4% 2.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.3% 6.1% 3.1% 1.1% 0.6% 2.6% 1.0% 1.8% 0.5% 5.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.3% 1.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 1.6% 0.2% 3.2% Logistic Regression 0.9% 7.4% 2.5% 2.0% 1.7% 5.6% 1.4% 1.8% 0.7% 2.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nangka at 08/12/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 133 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.0% 6.5% 4.7% 1.2% 0.2% 1.0% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.2% RIPA Consensus 1.3% 9.5% 3.8% 3.0% 2.2% 7.3% 2.4% 5.2% 1.6% 4.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.2% 8.5% 4.1% 2.4% 1.5% 5.1% 1.8% 3.6% 1.0% 3.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.7% 4.1% 1.6% 0.9% 0.0% 2.1% 1.0% 6.3% 1.4% 5.9% Logistic Regression 2.0% 14.9% 6.0% 5.1% 4.5% 12.4% 3.9% 4.2% 1.8% 3.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------