Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current Seventeen intensity image current Seventeen RI diff image

 


Seventeen at 09/03/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 15 kts, MPI = 105 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 2.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 1.3% 0.1% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 0.3% 4.8% 1.4% 1.1% 1.0% 9.2% 3.5% 12.6% 6.6% 23.4%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 3.9% 1.0% 0.7% 0.6% 6.3% 2.3% 8.8% 4.4% 15.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 1.6% 1.3% 15.2% 5.8% 20.1%
Logistic Regression 0.6% 8.8% 2.6% 1.9% 1.9% 16.8% 5.7% 10.0% 7.4% 26.6%
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Saudel at 09/03/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 107 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 6.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 1.7% 0.1% 0.2% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.7%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 2.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1%
Logistic Regression 0.2% 2.0% 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 1.7% 0.3% 1.0% 0.2% 1.2%
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Saudel at 09/03/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 107 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.5% 19.6% 7.3% 7.5% 1.7% 3.6% 1.9% 10.3% 2.3% 9.3% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 2.7% 1.0% 0.7% 0.5% 2.4% 0.6% 2.2% 0.5% 3.7%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.3% 8.3% 3.0% 2.9% 0.9% 2.8% 1.0% 4.9% 1.0% 5.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 1.0% 0.1% 3.0%
Logistic Regression 0.4% 4.7% 1.7% 1.3% 1.0% 4.5% 1.1% 3.4% 0.9% 4.4%
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Saudel at 09/03/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 104 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.6% 19.1% 3.9% 5.1% 2.8% 20.8% 12.4% 10.2% 3.7% 9.9% RIPA Consensus 3.2% 18.0% 9.8% 9.3% 6.8% 14.0% 6.0% 5.9% 2.0% 3.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.0% 18.3% 7.8% 7.8% 5.4% 16.2% 8.1% 7.3% 2.5% 5.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.5% 9.6% 5.3% 4.3% 0.7% 5.4% 2.8% 2.4% 0.4% 0.8%
Logistic Regression 4.0% 26.3% 14.2% 14.2% 12.9% 22.5% 9.3% 9.3% 3.6% 5.1%
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Saudel at 09/02/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 102 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.5% 5.3% 0.8% 1.2% 0.3% 2.3% 0.7% 1.1% 0.1% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 3.4% 18.7% 10.9% 10.9% 8.5% 19.3% 10.0% 10.6% 5.4% 8.3%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.4% 14.2% 7.5% 7.6% 5.8% 13.6% 6.8% 7.4% 3.6% 5.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.1% 7.7% 5.0% 5.0% 0.4% 6.6% 3.8% 4.9% 1.3% 1.9%
Logistic Regression 4.8% 29.6% 16.9% 16.9% 16.7% 32.1% 16.2% 16.3% 9.5% 14.8%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Saudel at 09/02/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 123 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.2% 15.1% 3.3% 1.0% 0.6% 3.6% 2.9% 3.2% 0.6% 0.3% RIPA Consensus 1.8% 12.8% 6.6% 6.3% 4.7% 13.2% 5.9% 5.4% 2.5% 6.5%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.9% 13.6% 5.5% 4.5% 3.3% 10.0% 4.8% 4.6% 1.8% 4.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.6% 4.1% 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 3.1% 1.6% 1.4% 0.2% 1.5%
Logistic Regression 3.0% 21.6% 11.1% 10.5% 9.3% 23.4% 10.2% 9.4% 4.7% 11.5%
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Saudel at 09/02/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 128 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.0% 18.7% 2.2% 1.1% 0.7% 2.1% 1.4% 2.2% 1.1% 17.3% RIPA Consensus 1.4% 9.9% 4.5% 4.4% 3.2% 10.2% 4.0% 4.8% 2.2% 6.6%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.5% 12.8% 3.7% 3.2% 2.3% 7.5% 3.1% 3.9% 1.8% 10.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.5% 2.9% 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 1.8% 0.8% 0.9% 0.1% 1.3%
Logistic Regression 2.3% 16.9% 7.8% 7.5% 6.4% 18.7% 7.2% 8.8% 4.4% 12.0%
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Saudel at 09/02/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 133 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.4% 10.3% 2.1% 2.6% 0.5% 2.0% 1.8% 1.1% 0.4% 1.4% RIPA Consensus 0.7% 7.7% 3.3% 3.0% 2.4% 6.1% 2.0% 3.2% 1.3% 3.7%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.5% 8.5% 2.9% 2.8% 1.7% 4.7% 1.9% 2.5% 1.0% 2.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 1.7% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.8% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1%
Logistic Regression 1.2% 13.7% 6.2% 5.6% 4.8% 11.5% 3.7% 6.1% 2.5% 7.2%
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Saudel at 09/01/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 128 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.6% 2.3% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.2% RIPA Consensus 0.4% 5.5% 2.2% 2.0% 1.6% 4.5% 1.4% 2.2% 0.8% 2.8%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.4% 4.4% 1.7% 1.4% 1.1% 3.1% 0.9% 1.7% 0.6% 1.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
Logistic Regression 0.8% 10.0% 4.1% 3.6% 3.2% 8.5% 2.5% 4.2% 1.6% 5.5%
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Saudel at 09/01/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 123 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.6% 8.1% 3.9% 0.5% 0.1% 2.6% 0.4% 1.3% 0.3% 0.2% RIPA Consensus 1.6% 9.6% 4.3% 4.3% 3.3% 9.2% 3.5% 4.1% 1.8% 3.9%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.6% 9.0% 4.1% 3.0% 2.2% 6.9% 2.4% 3.1% 1.3% 2.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.4% 4.0% 2.2% 2.2% 0.2% 3.3% 1.5% 1.3% 0.2% 0.6%
Logistic Regression 1.9% 15.1% 6.4% 6.4% 6.4% 15.0% 5.5% 7.0% 3.5% 7.1%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Saudel at 09/01/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 123 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.9% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% RIPA Consensus 1.7% 6.5% 2.5% 2.4% 1.5% 5.4% 1.5% 1.8% 1.0% 3.4%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.4% 4.5% 1.8% 1.6% 1.0% 3.9% 1.0% 1.4% 0.9% 2.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.9% 3.2% 2.0% 2.0% 0.1% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%
Logistic Regression 1.5% 9.7% 3.0% 2.9% 2.9% 9.4% 2.5% 3.4% 2.0% 6.8%
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Seventeen at 09/01/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 130 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 1.1% 0.6% 0.3% 1.2% 0.4% RIPA Consensus 0.3% 3.1% 0.8% 0.7% 0.5% 2.8% 0.6% 1.4% 0.7% 3.2%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.2% 2.2% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 2.2% 0.6% 1.0% 0.9% 2.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%
Logistic Regression 0.4% 5.5% 1.5% 1.2% 1.1% 5.3% 1.2% 2.6% 1.4% 6.3%
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Seventeen at 08/31/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 123 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 3.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 1.1% RIPA Consensus 0.3% 3.3% 0.9% 0.7% 0.6% 4.1% 1.0% 2.4% 1.0% 3.8%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.2% 3.1% 0.7% 0.5% 0.3% 3.1% 0.8% 1.7% 0.7% 2.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.9% 0.3% 1.0% 0.1% 0.8%
Logistic Regression 0.4% 5.8% 1.5% 1.2% 1.1% 7.4% 1.6% 3.8% 1.9% 6.9%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Seventeen at 08/31/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 116 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 2.0% RIPA Consensus 1.3% 15.8% 6.5% 5.8% 4.8% 20.4% 8.9% 16.1% 9.3% 19.4%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.9% 10.7% 4.3% 3.9% 3.1% 13.7% 5.9% 10.9% 6.2% 13.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.8% 7.4% 3.6% 2.2% 0.2% 8.6% 4.6% 14.6% 5.5% 8.5%
Logistic Regression 1.8% 24.2% 9.4% 9.4% 9.4% 32.3% 13.1% 17.6% 13.1% 30.3%
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Seventeen at 08/31/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 15 kts, MPI = 102 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 1.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 1.1% RIPA Consensus 0.5% 8.1% 2.2% 1.8% 1.7% 15.2% 5.4% 14.6% 8.4% 30.7%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.4% 6.0% 1.6% 1.1% 1.0% 10.2% 3.5% 9.9% 5.5% 20.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 2.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 4.4% 2.1% 15.2% 5.6% 19.7%
Logistic Regression 0.8% 14.0% 3.9% 3.3% 3.3% 26.1% 8.7% 14.0% 11.1% 41.7%
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Seventeen at 08/30/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 15 kts, MPI = 112 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 1.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 0.5% 7.6% 2.2% 1.7% 1.6% 15.2% 5.8% 18.6% 11.0% 34.2%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.4% 5.5% 1.5% 1.2% 1.0% 10.3% 3.9% 12.5% 7.4% 22.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 2.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 4.8% 2.4% 21.2% 8.8% 26.5%
Logistic Regression 0.8% 12.9% 3.8% 3.1% 3.1% 25.5% 9.3% 15.9% 13.1% 41.8%
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Seventeen at 08/30/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 15 kts, MPI = 99 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.4% 4.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.2% RIPA Consensus 0.6% 8.5% 2.6% 2.1% 2.0% 14.7% 5.8% 12.5% 6.5% 13.2%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.5% 7.2% 1.9% 1.4% 1.4% 9.9% 3.8% 8.7% 4.3% 8.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 2.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 3.9% 2.5% 13.3% 5.0% 8.0%
Logistic Regression 1.2% 14.9% 4.6% 3.9% 3.9% 25.5% 9.1% 11.8% 7.9% 18.4%
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Seventeen at 08/29/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 15 kts, MPI = 113 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 7.1% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 1.0% 0.1% 5.8% 1.9% 9.7% RIPA Consensus 0.6% 5.9% 1.8% 1.4% 1.2% 7.0% 2.3% 5.6% 2.0% 7.1%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.5% 6.3% 1.4% 1.0% 0.9% 5.0% 1.5% 5.7% 2.0% 7.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 1.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.9% 0.5% 6.3% 1.6% 7.5%
Logistic Regression 1.1% 10.5% 3.3% 2.5% 2.5% 13.2% 4.1% 5.0% 2.5% 6.7%
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Seventeen at 08/29/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 15 kts, MPI = 110 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.4% 21.9% 7.8% 3.3% 0.4% 8.3% 2.7% 15.6% 4.9% 9.7% RIPA Consensus 0.5% 7.5% 2.5% 1.9% 1.7% 17.3% 7.9% 19.9% 12.5% 32.2%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.8% 12.3% 4.2% 2.3% 1.2% 14.2% 6.2% 18.4% 9.9% 24.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 1.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 4.1% 2.6% 20.8% 9.0% 22.2%
Logistic Regression 1.0% 13.4% 4.5% 3.5% 3.4% 30.5% 13.3% 18.9% 16.0% 42.1%
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Seventeen at 08/29/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 15 kts, MPI = 112 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.9% 6.2% 1.7% 0.4% 0.8% 1.4% 0.3% 7.1% 0.7% 0.6% RIPA Consensus 0.4% 7.8% 2.6% 2.0% 1.9% 14.7% 6.4% 17.8% 9.4% 22.6%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.5% 7.3% 2.3% 1.4% 1.5% 10.2% 4.3% 14.2% 6.5% 15.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 1.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 3.4% 2.1% 19.6% 8.0% 20.2%
Logistic Regression 0.8% 13.9% 4.7% 3.7% 3.7% 25.9% 10.6% 15.9% 10.8% 25.1%
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Seventeen at 08/28/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 111 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 4.3% 0.7% 0.7% 0.2% 2.8% 0.4% 5.3% 1.3% 1.6% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 2.2% 0.8% 0.5% 0.4% 3.0% 0.8% 10.6% 3.6% 25.6%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 2.9% 0.7% 0.5% 0.3% 2.9% 0.6% 8.8% 2.8% 17.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 12.6% 4.5% 31.7%
Logistic Regression 0.2% 4.1% 1.4% 0.9% 0.8% 5.6% 1.4% 8.6% 2.7% 19.5%
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Saudel at 08/28/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 106 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 5.8% 0.2% 2.3% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 1.0% 0.2% 3.7% 0.7% 4.7%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.7% 0.1% 4.3% 0.5% 3.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 3.7% 0.9% 6.5%
Logistic Regression 0.1% 2.0% 0.7% 0.5% 0.4% 1.7% 0.4% 3.7% 0.6% 2.8%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


 


 


Saudel at 08/27/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 99 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.9% 3.1% 1.9% 0.6% 0.7% 2.2% 0.5% 1.8% 0.4% 0.9% RIPA Consensus 2.7% 7.9% 6.3% 6.3% 4.1% 3.1% 0.8% 2.2% 0.2% 1.2%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.4% 6.3% 4.8% 4.3% 2.9% 2.8% 0.6% 2.0% 0.3% 1.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 3.2% 5.4% 5.4% 5.4% 1.0% 3.5% 0.9% 0.6% 0.1% 1.0%
Logistic Regression 2.3% 10.4% 7.1% 7.1% 7.1% 2.7% 0.7% 3.8% 0.4% 1.5%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Saudel at 08/27/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 107 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 9.0% 4.1% 3.2% 1.2% 1.0% 1.3% 0.3% 1.1% 0.1% 0.5% RIPA Consensus 5.2% 9.1% 7.8% 7.8% 3.9% 3.5% 0.8% 1.9% 0.3% 0.9%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 6.4% 7.3% 6.2% 5.5% 2.9% 2.7% 0.6% 1.6% 0.2% 0.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 5.9% 7.3% 7.3% 7.3% 0.9% 3.3% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1%
Logistic Regression 4.5% 10.8% 8.2% 8.2% 6.9% 3.7% 1.0% 3.4% 0.5% 1.6%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Saudel at 08/27/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 119 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 4.9% 3.3% 1.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.3% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


 


 


Saudel at 08/26/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 105 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.8% 1.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.4% RIPA Consensus 1.3% 2.5% 1.7% 1.7% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.3%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.4% 2.1% 1.3% 1.2% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Logistic Regression 1.2% 3.7% 2.2% 2.2% 1.9% 0.7% 0.1% 1.1% 0.1% 0.5%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Saudel at 08/26/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 100 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.3% 3.5% 1.6% 0.9% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.2% RIPA Consensus 2.6% 5.3% 4.3% 4.3% 2.4% 0.9% 0.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.3%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.5% 4.7% 3.4% 3.2% 1.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Logistic Regression 2.5% 7.3% 5.4% 5.4% 4.4% 1.3% 0.3% 1.1% 0.1% 0.6%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Saudel at 08/26/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 103 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 9.9% 2.9% 1.4% 1.0% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Saudel at 08/26/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 109 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 6.5% 14.0% 1.8% 2.2% 1.6% 1.7% 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 2.1% RIPA Consensus 3.7% 7.2% 6.1% 6.1% 4.0% 1.1% 0.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.3%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.6% 9.4% 4.6% 4.8% 3.2% 1.3% 0.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 3.1% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 0.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Logistic Regression 4.3% 10.7% 8.5% 8.5% 7.6% 1.6% 0.4% 1.4% 0.1% 0.5%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Saudel at 08/25/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 125 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 4.0% 6.7% 3.2% 0.3% 0.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% RIPA Consensus 4.0% 5.5% 4.4% 4.4% 2.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.9% 5.8% 4.0% 3.0% 1.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 4.0% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Logistic Regression 3.9% 7.5% 5.4% 5.4% 4.2% 1.1% 0.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.2%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Saudel at 08/25/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 123 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.8% 9.2% 2.3% 5.3% 0.7% 1.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Saudel at 08/25/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 121 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 6.2% 9.5% 7.0% 9.6% 3.2% 5.8% 1.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.3% RIPA Consensus 1.3% 4.6% 3.4% 3.2% 1.8% 0.9% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.9% 6.2% 4.5% 5.3% 2.2% 2.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.0% 2.2% 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Logistic Regression 1.6% 7.0% 5.0% 4.8% 3.6% 1.2% 0.2% 0.9% 0.1% 0.2%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Saudel at 08/25/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 124 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.9% 6.6% 4.1% 2.1% 0.9% 1.8% 0.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.3% RIPA Consensus 1.5% 2.0% 1.3% 1.1% 0.7% 1.8% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.9% 3.5% 2.2% 1.4% 0.8% 1.8% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.7% 0.8% 0.8% 0.6% 0.2% 2.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 1.3% 3.1% 1.8% 1.5% 1.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Saudel at 08/24/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 117 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 3.7% 9.4% 2.9% 1.5% 1.1% 2.2% 1.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.4% RIPA Consensus 2.0% 2.5% 1.6% 1.3% 0.9% 2.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.5% 4.8% 2.0% 1.4% 0.9% 2.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.1% 1.3% 0.9% 0.7% 0.3% 4.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 1.8% 3.7% 2.3% 2.0% 1.5% 0.8% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Saudel at 08/24/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 112 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.4% 9.9% 6.6% 3.0% 0.6% 1.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% RIPA Consensus 3.1% 3.3% 2.5% 1.9% 1.4% 4.5% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.8% 5.5% 3.8% 2.2% 1.1% 3.4% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 3.8% 2.2% 2.1% 1.4% 0.8% 8.1% 0.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 2.3% 4.5% 2.8% 2.3% 2.0% 0.9% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Saudel at 08/24/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 115 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 6.5% 6.8% 3.4% 1.5% 1.2% 1.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 2.4% 4.5% 3.6% 3.1% 1.7% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.7% 5.2% 3.5% 2.5% 1.5% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.6% 3.1% 2.8% 2.5% 0.4% 18.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 2.2% 5.9% 4.3% 3.7% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Saudel at 08/24/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 110 kts, MPI = 129 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 9.3% 13.6% 5.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 8.1% 9.9% 8.7% 8.5% 4.0% 22.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 8.5% 11.1% 7.6% 5.7% 2.7% 15.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 9.2% 7.5% 6.7% 6.7% 1.3% 38.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 7.0% 12.2% 10.7% 10.2% 6.7% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Saudel at 08/23/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 110 kts, MPI = 124 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 16.5% 14.4% 2.6% 0.1% 0.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% RIPA Consensus 9.5% 9.8% 8.3% 7.4% 4.4% 25.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 11.7% 11.3% 6.3% 4.9% 3.1% 17.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 10.9% 7.6% 6.0% 4.9% 2.4% 43.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 8.0% 12.0% 10.6% 9.9% 6.5% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Saudel at 08/23/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 110 kts, MPI = 126 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 15.3% 16.8% 5.8% 0.9% 6.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.2% RIPA Consensus 8.9% 7.6% 6.8% 5.7% 3.4% 20.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 11.0% 10.6% 6.5% 4.1% 4.2% 13.7% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 10.8% 5.8% 5.8% 4.5% 1.7% 36.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 7.0% 9.4% 7.9% 6.9% 5.1% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Saudel at 08/23/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 110 kts, MPI = 126 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 12.8% 13.1% 18.2% 4.4% 3.2% 0.8% 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.4% RIPA Consensus 8.4% 9.5% 8.7% 7.9% 3.4% 22.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 9.9% 10.6% 11.8% 6.7% 3.3% 15.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 9.3% 7.3% 6.8% 6.8% 0.7% 39.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 7.6% 11.7% 10.6% 9.0% 6.1% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Saudel at 08/23/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 110 kts, MPI = 126 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 16.4% 21.7% 9.3% 4.7% 0.8% 2.0% 0.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.9% RIPA Consensus 19.5% 20.6% 20.0% 19.5% 8.9% 34.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 18.4% 21.0% 16.4% 14.5% 6.2% 23.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 23.0% 19.8% 19.8% 19.8% 3.6% 55.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 16.0% 21.5% 20.2% 19.1% 14.2% 13.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Saudel at 08/22/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 125 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 43.3% 21.0% 24.7% 0.5% 8.6% 2.2% 0.8% 1.5% 0.2% 1.1% RIPA Consensus 48.1% 46.1% 44.6% 44.1% 35.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 46.4% 37.6% 37.9% 29.5% 26.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 64.7% 47.8% 46.3% 45.4% 33.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 31.4% 44.3% 42.9% 42.9% 37.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Saudel at 08/22/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 121 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 40.7% 48.4% 19.5% 32.6% 18.0% 6.5% 2.6% 3.6% 0.2% 1.0% RIPA Consensus 51.5% 63.0% 62.6% 61.6% 50.6% 73.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 47.8% 58.1% 48.2% 51.9% 39.7% 50.9% 0.8% 1.2% 0.0% 0.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 66.6% 62.8% 61.9% 60.0% 42.6% 90.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 36.3% 63.3% 63.3% 63.3% 58.6% 55.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Saudel at 08/22/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 125 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 48.5% 46.9% 47.5% 34.4% 29.2% 33.0% 12.7% 11.9% 5.1% 6.3% RIPA Consensus 49.1% 63.9% 61.8% 61.8% 49.8% 69.8% 37.8% 34.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 48.9% 58.2% 57.0% 52.6% 42.9% 57.5% 29.4% 26.6% 1.7% 2.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 63.2% 63.1% 58.9% 58.9% 37.6% 82.6% 34.4% 46.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 35.0% 64.7% 64.7% 64.7% 61.9% 57.0% 41.3% 22.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Saudel at 08/22/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 124 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 28.8% 57.1% 49.3% 40.0% 29.6% 36.1% 16.4% 29.9% 5.2% 18.6% RIPA Consensus 56.3% 72.4% 71.3% 71.0% 60.8% 67.4% 40.2% 40.9% 0.0% 10.3%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 47.1% 67.2% 63.9% 60.6% 50.4% 56.9% 32.2% 37.2% 1.7% 13.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 69.7% 69.9% 67.8% 67.2% 46.8% 74.4% 37.1% 44.1% 0.0% 8.0%
Logistic Regression 42.8% 74.8% 74.8% 74.8% 74.8% 60.3% 43.3% 37.7% 0.0% 12.5%
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Saudel at 08/21/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 132 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 52.6% 71.1% 66.7% 44.8% 37.5% 52.1% 34.4% 40.2% 17.6% 30.9% RIPA Consensus 77.8% 95.0% 95.0% 95.0% 95.0% 83.9% 63.0% 53.0% 35.1% 27.7%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 69.3% 87.0% 85.5% 78.2% 75.8% 73.3% 53.4% 48.7% 29.3% 28.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 86.5% 96.2% 96.2% 96.2% 96.2% 88.6% 59.1% 42.5% 26.6% 26.1%
Logistic Regression 69.1% 93.8% 93.8% 93.8% 93.8% 79.2% 66.8% 63.6% 43.7% 29.3%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Saudel at 08/21/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 132 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 30.6% 55.6% 41.7% 47.2% 42.8% 50.3% 37.4% 55.2% 28.9% 43.0% RIPA Consensus 74.2% 94.6% 94.6% 93.8% 93.8% 86.0% 78.1% 75.2% 57.2% 50.6%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 59.6% 81.6% 76.9% 78.2% 76.7% 74.1% 64.5% 68.5% 47.7% 48.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 84.2% 96.9% 96.9% 95.2% 95.2% 90.6% 86.7% 78.4% 61.9% 56.0%
Logistic Regression 64.2% 92.3% 92.3% 92.3% 92.3% 81.4% 69.4% 72.0% 52.5% 45.1%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Saudel at 08/21/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 135 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 39.3% 61.5% 53.5% 44.0% 22.7% 50.3% 29.5% 53.3% 30.9% 54.6% RIPA Consensus 54.7% 89.7% 87.7% 81.1% 79.5% 81.5% 67.2% 58.2% 42.8% 57.1%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 49.5% 80.2% 76.2% 68.7% 60.5% 71.1% 54.6% 56.5% 38.8% 56.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 59.3% 87.5% 83.5% 70.5% 67.1% 76.9% 56.4% 41.8% 25.2% 54.8%
Logistic Regression 50.1% 91.8% 91.8% 91.8% 91.8% 86.2% 77.9% 74.5% 60.4% 59.3%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Saudel at 08/21/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 135 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 5.5% 36.6% 8.4% 16.7% 3.9% 42.4% 24.0% 46.5% 24.7% 62.9% RIPA Consensus 11.0% 54.6% 40.3% 34.9% 34.9% 53.6% 33.6% 49.0% 28.4% 56.9%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 9.1% 48.5% 29.6% 28.8% 24.5% 49.8% 30.3% 48.1% 27.1% 58.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 10.3% 45.3% 27.8% 17.0% 17.0% 45.7% 28.4% 49.6% 25.7% 62.5%
Logistic Regression 11.7% 63.8% 52.8% 52.8% 52.8% 61.4% 38.7% 48.3% 31.0% 51.2%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Saudel at 08/20/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 139 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 6.8% 43.4% 26.8% 19.5% 8.2% 50.5% 22.9% 51.1% 31.9% 60.4% RIPA Consensus 6.9% 52.2% 34.5% 28.8% 28.8% 54.0% 35.3% 51.0% 33.8% 62.6%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 6.8% 49.3% 31.8% 25.7% 21.9% 52.8% 31.1% 51.0% 33.1% 61.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 6.1% 42.5% 23.0% 11.7% 11.7% 42.4% 26.9% 48.0% 26.6% 62.6%
Logistic Regression 7.7% 62.0% 45.9% 45.9% 45.9% 65.6% 43.7% 54.0% 41.0% 62.5%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Saudel at 08/20/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 138 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 5.9% 30.5% 12.2% 12.0% 4.0% 35.7% 18.4% 40.5% 22.9% 57.0% RIPA Consensus 6.5% 46.9% 30.1% 26.3% 26.3% 52.6% 33.1% 47.7% 33.4% 63.7%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 6.3% 41.4% 24.0% 21.5% 18.8% 46.9% 28.2% 45.3% 29.9% 61.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 5.8% 37.2% 20.2% 12.7% 12.7% 42.3% 26.3% 41.8% 26.1% 62.6%
Logistic Regression 7.2% 56.6% 39.9% 39.9% 39.9% 62.9% 40.0% 53.6% 40.7% 64.8%
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Saudel at 08/20/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 135 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.9% 15.4% 11.3% 3.5% 0.9% 13.4% 7.9% 23.8% 14.3% 56.1% RIPA Consensus 2.4% 28.2% 14.1% 11.0% 11.0% 39.4% 20.8% 46.4% 29.6% 63.6%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.2% 23.9% 13.1% 8.5% 7.6% 30.7% 16.5% 38.8% 24.5% 61.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.6% 18.4% 8.6% 3.0% 3.0% 29.4% 16.0% 47.0% 26.7% 62.6%
Logistic Regression 3.2% 38.0% 19.5% 19.1% 19.1% 49.5% 25.6% 45.8% 32.5% 64.6%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Saudel at 08/20/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 138 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.7% 19.2% 8.1% 3.9% 0.8% 12.7% 5.7% 19.6% 6.6% 50.2% RIPA Consensus 1.9% 22.3% 10.3% 9.8% 9.8% 30.2% 12.9% 43.5% 25.6% 58.6%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.8% 21.3% 9.5% 7.8% 6.8% 24.3% 10.5% 35.5% 19.2% 55.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.3% 13.3% 6.2% 5.3% 5.3% 22.3% 10.5% 49.1% 26.0% 62.6%
Logistic Regression 2.5% 31.4% 14.3% 14.3% 14.3% 38.1% 15.4% 38.0% 25.2% 54.5%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Saudel at 08/19/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 156 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.5% 20.0% 5.6% 2.3% 0.7% 8.7% 6.7% 12.7% 6.3% 38.4% RIPA Consensus 1.0% 12.0% 5.2% 4.6% 4.6% 17.5% 6.6% 33.0% 18.4% 54.1%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.8% 14.6% 5.3% 3.7% 3.2% 14.5% 6.6% 26.2% 14.4% 48.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.7% 5.8% 3.1% 1.9% 1.9% 12.4% 5.9% 43.1% 23.8% 62.6%
Logistic Regression 1.3% 18.1% 7.2% 7.2% 7.2% 22.6% 7.4% 22.9% 13.1% 45.5%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Saudel at 08/19/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 153 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.7% 7.4% 1.5% 0.3% 0.3% 2.2% 1.1% 11.1% 1.1% 43.6% RIPA Consensus 0.8% 9.6% 3.5% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0% 5.6% 35.3% 19.2% 58.5%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.7% 8.8% 2.8% 2.0% 2.0% 11.4% 4.0% 27.2% 13.2% 53.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.6% 5.3% 2.3% 1.2% 1.2% 12.2% 5.0% 47.3% 25.2% 62.6%
Logistic Regression 1.0% 13.9% 4.8% 4.7% 4.7% 19.8% 6.1% 23.3% 13.3% 54.4%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Seventeen at 08/18/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 149 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.6% 7.9% 2.6% 1.7% 0.8% 4.8% 1.1% 3.7% 2.7% 22.4% RIPA Consensus 1.1% 15.5% 5.8% 5.5% 5.3% 25.2% 10.5% 34.7% 23.1% 66.7%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.2% 12.9% 4.7% 4.2% 3.7% 18.4% 7.3% 24.3% 16.3% 51.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.7% 8.8% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 11.4% 4.8% 40.7% 21.4% 62.6%
Logistic Regression 1.5% 22.2% 7.7% 7.1% 6.6% 39.1% 16.1% 28.7% 24.9% 70.7%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------