Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)     Eighteen at 08/27/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 15 kts, MPI = 107 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.7% 1.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.4% 0.8% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 0.8% 7.1% 2.4% 2.1% 1.3% 9.6% 3.5% 2.8% 1.8% 4.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.7% 5.2% 1.8% 1.4% 1.0% 6.6% 2.3% 2.0% 1.2% 2.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 1.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.6% Logistic Regression 1.5% 12.8% 4.6% 4.0% 2.7% 18.8% 6.8% 4.8% 3.5% 7.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eighteen at 08/26/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 15 kts, MPI = 103 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.3% 2.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 11.9% RIPA Consensus 0.4% 4.4% 1.4% 1.1% 0.7% 5.1% 1.4% 1.7% 1.0% 5.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.3% 3.6% 1.2% 0.7% 0.4% 3.5% 0.9% 1.1% 0.7% 7.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 2.2% Logistic Regression 0.8% 8.2% 2.6% 2.2% 1.3% 10.1% 2.8% 2.9% 2.0% 8.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eighteen at 08/26/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 15 kts, MPI = 95 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 1.6% 1.6% 0.1% 0.2% 1.0% 0.2% 5.4% 0.7% 8.6% RIPA Consensus 0.7% 8.6% 3.0% 2.4% 2.0% 15.6% 7.1% 13.1% 8.2% 24.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.5% 6.2% 2.5% 1.6% 1.4% 10.7% 4.8% 10.5% 5.6% 19.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 1.8% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 2.4% 1.7% 11.6% 4.2% 11.9% Logistic Regression 1.3% 15.4% 5.5% 4.5% 4.0% 28.8% 12.5% 14.6% 12.1% 36.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eighteen at 08/26/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 105 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 1.3% 0.1% 2.5% 0.4% 7.4% RIPA Consensus 0.6% 6.0% 2.0% 1.5% 1.4% 9.2% 3.2% 8.7% 3.8% 14.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.4% 4.0% 1.3% 1.0% 0.9% 6.5% 2.1% 6.6% 2.6% 11.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.2% 1.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 2.4% 1.5% 9.0% 2.9% 10.5% Logistic Regression 1.1% 10.5% 3.4% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0% 5.0% 8.5% 4.8% 17.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eighteen at 08/26/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 110 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.9% 0.1% 2.1% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 2.0% 0.4% 1.2% 0.4% 3.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 1.3% 0.2% 1.0% 0.3% 2.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 2.9% Logistic Regression 0.1% 3.0% 0.8% 0.5% 0.5% 3.7% 0.7% 1.8% 0.7% 3.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Narra at 08/25/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 115 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.9% 0.1% 4.9% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 1.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 2.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% -0.0% 1.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 1.8% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 1.8% 0.3% 0.9% 0.3% 1.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Narra at 08/25/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 113 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 4.6% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 2.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 1.0% 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% 1.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Narra at 08/25/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 122 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% RIPA Consensus 0.3% 1.6% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 1.8% 0.4% 0.9% 0.3% 1.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 1.1% 0.2% 0.6% 0.1% 1.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% -0.0% 0.3% Logistic Regression 0.3% 2.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 3.2% 0.6% 1.8% 0.6% 3.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Narra at 08/25/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 126 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.9% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.2% 1.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 1.3% 0.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Narra at 08/24/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 125 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.1% 1.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Narra at 08/24/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 121 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 24.0% RIPA Consensus 0.3% 1.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.2% 1.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 8.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.5% 2.4% 0.7% 0.6% 0.5% 1.3% 0.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Narra at 08/24/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 123 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% RIPA Consensus 0.8% 3.3% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 1.5% 0.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.5% 2.2% 0.7% 0.6% 0.5% 1.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.5% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 1.0% 5.7% 2.0% 1.8% 1.5% 2.6% 0.5% 1.1% 0.3% 1.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Narra at 08/24/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 127 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.6% 2.5% 0.9% 0.8% 0.6% 1.3% 0.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.4% 1.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.9% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.8% 4.5% 1.6% 1.4% 1.1% 2.4% 0.5% 0.9% 0.2% 1.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Narra at 08/23/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 2.4% 10.6% 5.0% 4.6% 3.7% 5.8% 1.7% 1.7% 0.7% 1.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.6% 7.1% 3.3% 3.1% 2.4% 3.8% 1.1% 1.1% 0.4% 1.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.0% 4.8% 2.6% 2.1% 0.6% 1.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% Logistic Regression 2.8% 16.5% 7.4% 7.2% 6.8% 9.8% 2.8% 3.2% 1.2% 3.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Narra at 08/23/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 122 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 1.4% 4.2% 1.8% 1.7% 1.1% 1.9% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.0% 2.8% 1.2% 1.0% 0.7% 1.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.3% 1.3% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 1.5% 7.1% 2.6% 2.4% 2.1% 3.6% 0.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Narra at 08/23/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 126 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 1.4% 5.7% 2.4% 2.3% 1.6% 3.4% 1.0% 0.8% 0.3% 1.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.0% 4.1% 1.8% 1.5% 1.0% 2.5% 0.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.9% 1.6% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 1.8% 9.8% 3.9% 3.6% 3.1% 6.6% 1.8% 1.7% 0.6% 2.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Narra at 08/23/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 131 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.3% 4.2% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2% 1.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 2.1% 8.3% 3.7% 3.5% 2.3% 5.0% 1.6% 1.2% 0.5% 1.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.4% 6.9% 2.7% 2.4% 1.5% 3.9% 1.0% 0.8% 0.3% 0.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.7% 3.4% 1.8% 1.8% 0.1% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 2.4% 13.3% 5.6% 5.1% 4.5% 9.1% 2.8% 2.4% 0.9% 2.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Narra at 08/22/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 126 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 0.4% 3.0% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 2.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.3% 2.1% 0.6% 0.6% 0.3% 1.4% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.7% 5.4% 1.8% 1.5% 1.2% 3.9% 0.9% 1.1% 0.3% 1.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Narra at 08/22/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 123 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.6% 2.1% 1.2% 0.4% 0.2% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 0.7% 4.4% 1.6% 1.5% 1.0% 3.6% 1.0% 0.8% 0.3% 0.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.6% 3.6% 1.5% 1.0% 0.7% 2.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.3% 0.9% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 1.1% 7.9% 3.0% 2.6% 1.9% 6.9% 1.9% 1.7% 0.6% 1.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Narra at 08/22/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 126 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 0.3% 2.4% 0.9% 0.7% 0.5% 1.8% 0.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.2% 1.9% 0.7% 0.4% 0.3% 1.3% 0.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.5% 4.3% 1.5% 1.2% 1.0% 3.5% 0.8% 1.3% 0.4% 1.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eighteen at 08/22/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 128 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.5% 4.0% 1.4% 0.4% 0.2% 1.7% 0.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.2% RIPA Consensus 1.6% 13.3% 6.3% 6.1% 4.3% 9.4% 3.2% 3.5% 1.4% 2.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.2% 10.2% 4.6% 4.2% 2.9% 6.8% 2.3% 2.5% 0.9% 1.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.7% 5.5% 1.9% 1.9% 0.1% 2.3% 0.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% Logistic Regression 2.6% 21.2% 10.6% 10.3% 8.6% 16.6% 5.8% 6.5% 2.6% 4.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eighteen at 08/21/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 124 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.3% 5.1% 2.0% 2.2% 0.0% 1.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 0.6% 4.3% 1.8% 1.6% 1.1% 3.2% 0.9% 1.2% 0.4% 1.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.5% 4.5% 1.8% 1.8% 0.7% 2.6% 0.6% 0.7% 0.3% 0.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.3% 0.9% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 1.0% 7.7% 3.1% 2.8% 2.1% 6.1% 1.7% 2.3% 0.8% 1.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eighteen at 08/21/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 118 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.4% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% RIPA Consensus 1.6% 6.4% 3.0% 2.9% 1.9% 5.3% 1.7% 1.5% 0.6% 0.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.2% 4.6% 2.1% 2.0% 1.3% 3.7% 1.1% 1.1% 0.4% 0.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.0% 1.8% 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 2.2% 11.0% 4.6% 4.4% 3.8% 10.1% 3.2% 3.1% 1.2% 1.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eighteen at 08/21/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 125 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.8% 3.3% 0.7% 0.6% 0.4% 1.4% 0.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 2.5% 17.0% 8.6% 8.5% 6.4% 15.0% 6.6% 5.6% 2.9% 5.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.9% 12.4% 5.9% 5.8% 4.3% 10.4% 4.5% 3.9% 2.0% 3.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.2% 6.9% 3.0% 2.8% 0.2% 2.8% 1.2% 1.4% 0.2% 0.5% Logistic Regression 3.8% 27.1% 14.2% 14.2% 12.5% 27.2% 12.1% 9.8% 5.7% 9.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eighteen at 08/21/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 129 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.3% 9.9% 3.1% 0.8% 0.1% 1.5% 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% RIPA Consensus 0.3% 3.6% 1.3% 1.1% 0.8% 3.7% 1.1% 1.3% 0.6% 1.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.3% 5.6% 1.8% 1.0% 0.5% 3.0% 0.8% 1.0% 0.5% 1.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.6% 6.5% 2.3% 2.0% 1.5% 7.3% 2.2% 2.7% 1.3% 3.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eighteen at 08/20/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 125 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.3% 12.4% 8.1% 0.7% 0.2% 3.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% RIPA Consensus 0.4% 4.7% 1.8% 1.5% 1.0% 6.3% 2.1% 2.6% 1.3% 3.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.4% 7.2% 3.8% 1.2% 0.7% 5.1% 1.5% 1.7% 0.9% 2.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% Logistic Regression 0.8% 8.6% 3.2% 2.8% 1.9% 12.1% 4.0% 4.6% 2.5% 6.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------