Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)     Nineteen at 08/25/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 128 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nineteen at 08/25/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 132 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 2.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 1.8% 0.0% 5.8% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 2.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Atsani at 08/25/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 134 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 2.9% 0.5% 8.7% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 1.0% 0.1% 2.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Atsani at 08/25/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 137 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 2.3% 0.3% 10.9% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 3.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.2% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Atsani at 08/24/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 138 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 0.0% 7.0% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 2.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.2% 1.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Atsani at 08/24/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 138 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 7.9% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Atsani at 08/24/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 138 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 1.5% 0.2% 9.3% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 3.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.2% 1.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nineteen at 08/24/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 141 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 5.9% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 2.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.1% 1.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 1.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nineteen at 08/23/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 139 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% 0.2% 1.0% 0.4% 2.0% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 1.2% 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 1.0% 0.2% 0.6% 0.2% 1.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.2% 2.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 2.1% 0.3% 0.7% 0.3% 0.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nineteen at 08/23/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 135 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 1.2% 0.3% 2.8% 1.1% 19.3% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 1.1% 0.2% 0.6% 0.2% 1.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 1.0% 0.2% 1.3% 0.5% 7.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.5% Logistic Regression 0.2% 2.3% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 1.9% 0.3% 0.7% 0.3% 1.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nineteen at 08/23/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 137 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.6% 0.2% 2.1% 0.4% 11.0% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 1.9% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 1.5% 0.3% 1.0% 0.3% 1.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.3% 1.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 1.2% 0.2% 1.3% 0.3% 4.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.8% 0.1% 1.0% Logistic Regression 0.3% 3.1% 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 2.8% 0.4% 1.1% 0.5% 1.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nineteen at 08/23/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 137 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.0% 5.1% 2.7% 0.7% 0.2% 1.9% 0.6% 4.5% 2.6% 14.2% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 2.1% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 1.6% 0.3% 0.9% 0.3% 1.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.4% 3.0% 1.2% 0.5% 0.3% 1.7% 0.3% 2.1% 1.0% 5.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.9% Logistic Regression 0.3% 3.5% 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 3.0% 0.5% 1.2% 0.5% 2.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nineteen at 08/22/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 144 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.4% 4.6% 0.6% 0.8% 0.2% 1.0% 0.6% 5.0% 0.8% 9.7% RIPA Consensus 0.5% 3.2% 0.9% 0.8% 0.7% 2.5% 0.5% 2.1% 0.7% 3.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.4% 3.6% 0.7% 0.8% 0.5% 2.0% 0.5% 3.0% 0.7% 5.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.3% 0.9% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 2.0% 0.2% 2.9% Logistic Regression 0.6% 5.5% 1.5% 1.3% 1.2% 4.7% 0.9% 2.1% 1.2% 4.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nineteen at 08/22/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 140 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.2% 21.0% 11.7% 4.2% 4.3% 5.9% 2.9% 10.9% 3.0% 21.7% RIPA Consensus 0.9% 3.4% 1.0% 0.9% 0.9% 3.3% 0.8% 3.5% 1.1% 5.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.9% 9.2% 4.6% 2.0% 2.0% 4.1% 1.5% 5.9% 1.7% 11.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.9% 1.2% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 1.1% 0.4% 4.8% 0.9% 5.6% Logistic Regression 0.8% 5.6% 1.5% 1.4% 1.4% 5.5% 1.2% 2.1% 1.4% 5.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------