|
| Twenty at 08/31/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 136 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
0.0% |
6.7% |
2.8% |
0.0% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
5.1% |
0.0% |
5.9% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Twenty at 08/31/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 127 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
0.3% |
0.3% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
4.0% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
0.1% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
2.6% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
0.4% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
7.5% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
0.1% |
0.4% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.6% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Twenty at 08/31/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 125 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
0.1% |
0.3% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
1.7% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
0.0% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
1.1% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
0.1% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
3.1% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
0.1% |
0.4% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.2% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Bang-lang at 08/31/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 123 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
0.1% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
0.4% |
1.3% |
0.3% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
8.4% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
0.3% |
0.9% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
5.6% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
0.3% |
0.5% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.3% |
-0.0% |
15.3% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
0.5% |
2.0% |
0.4% |
0.3% |
0.2% |
0.4% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
1.6% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Bang-lang at 08/30/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 138 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
3.1% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
0.0% |
0.4% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.6% |
0.1% |
18.2% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
0.0% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.4% |
0.0% |
13.2% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
0.0% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
1.1% |
0.1% |
35.8% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
0.1% |
0.6% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.7% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Bang-lang at 08/30/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 140 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Bang-lang at 08/30/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 145 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
0.2% |
3.2% |
0.5% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Bang-lang at 08/30/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 147 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
0.5% |
2.3% |
0.5% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
4.4% |
0.2% |
8.0% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
1.4% |
4.1% |
2.1% |
1.2% |
0.9% |
1.9% |
0.4% |
6.1% |
1.4% |
14.6% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
1.0% |
3.5% |
1.6% |
0.8% |
0.5% |
1.2% |
0.3% |
5.5% |
0.9% |
12.4% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
1.6% |
3.0% |
2.2% |
0.9% |
0.2% |
2.8% |
0.7% |
11.4% |
2.6% |
28.7% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
1.2% |
5.2% |
2.1% |
1.5% |
1.5% |
1.0% |
0.2% |
0.9% |
0.1% |
0.6% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Bang-lang at 08/29/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 149 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
3.4% |
4.9% |
1.8% |
1.2% |
1.1% |
0.7% |
0.3% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
8.2% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
1.4% |
5.1% |
2.6% |
1.3% |
1.0% |
1.9% |
0.3% |
6.8% |
1.5% |
14.1% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
2.0% |
5.0% |
2.3% |
1.2% |
1.0% |
1.5% |
0.3% |
4.5% |
1.0% |
12.1% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
1.8% |
4.8% |
3.1% |
0.9% |
0.6% |
2.9% |
0.5% |
12.4% |
3.0% |
27.7% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
1.0% |
5.4% |
2.2% |
1.7% |
1.5% |
0.9% |
0.1% |
1.2% |
0.1% |
0.5% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Bang-lang at 08/29/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 145 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
9.3% |
17.6% |
12.3% |
18.2% |
3.9% |
5.4% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
26.2% |
39.0% |
34.8% |
29.3% |
26.3% |
21.2% |
10.7% |
17.8% |
6.2% |
12.6% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
20.5% |
31.8% |
27.3% |
25.5% |
18.8% |
15.9% |
9.1% |
12.2% |
4.2% |
8.4% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
36.8% |
40.6% |
39.4% |
28.4% |
22.5% |
32.2% |
18.5% |
29.8% |
11.8% |
24.4% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
15.6% |
37.4% |
30.2% |
30.2% |
30.2% |
10.2% |
2.8% |
5.7% |
0.7% |
0.7% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Bang-lang at 08/29/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 145 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
15.2% |
25.7% |
26.2% |
30.2% |
16.9% |
23.9% |
24.4% |
3.4% |
1.0% |
0.4% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
33.7% |
52.1% |
45.2% |
39.3% |
36.2% |
31.9% |
16.4% |
31.4% |
14.0% |
20.3% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
27.5% |
43.2% |
38.8% |
36.3% |
29.7% |
29.2% |
19.0% |
22.0% |
9.6% |
13.6% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
51.3% |
56.8% |
52.3% |
40.6% |
34.3% |
43.2% |
25.9% |
46.3% |
24.9% |
36.9% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
16.1% |
47.3% |
38.1% |
38.1% |
38.1% |
20.5% |
6.9% |
16.5% |
3.1% |
3.6% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Bang-lang at 08/29/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 146 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
29.0% |
33.7% |
41.3% |
36.6% |
23.4% |
30.3% |
26.1% |
9.9% |
3.7% |
2.6% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
16.3% |
51.5% |
39.7% |
35.5% |
25.3% |
31.3% |
15.4% |
30.6% |
12.3% |
23.4% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
20.5% |
45.5% |
40.2% |
35.8% |
24.6% |
30.9% |
18.9% |
23.6% |
9.4% |
16.4% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
16.0% |
48.3% |
32.7% |
24.3% |
9.5% |
33.2% |
18.7% |
41.5% |
21.5% |
42.9% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
16.6% |
54.7% |
46.7% |
46.7% |
41.1% |
29.4% |
12.1% |
19.6% |
3.2% |
3.8% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Bang-lang at 08/28/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 139 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
24.0% |
36.1% |
24.2% |
26.6% |
19.1% |
32.6% |
17.7% |
16.7% |
1.2% |
3.7% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
35.3% |
67.8% |
58.7% |
55.3% |
43.2% |
44.3% |
24.4% |
36.8% |
16.1% |
24.5% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
31.5% |
57.2% |
47.2% |
45.7% |
35.1% |
40.4% |
22.2% |
30.0% |
11.1% |
17.5% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
38.5% |
64.7% |
50.0% |
43.2% |
23.8% |
44.2% |
26.4% |
45.8% |
24.8% |
41.3% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
32.1% |
71.0% |
67.4% |
67.4% |
62.5% |
44.4% |
22.5% |
27.8% |
7.3% |
7.6% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Bang-lang at 08/28/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 137 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
26.4% |
46.1% |
38.7% |
33.6% |
26.6% |
43.9% |
33.9% |
28.5% |
12.2% |
6.5% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
46.7% |
74.2% |
70.1% |
65.4% |
56.4% |
59.3% |
40.0% |
45.4% |
21.4% |
37.1% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
39.9% |
64.8% |
59.6% |
54.8% |
46.4% |
54.1% |
37.9% |
39.7% |
18.3% |
26.9% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
54.8% |
71.8% |
66.5% |
57.3% |
40.0% |
57.8% |
39.3% |
46.1% |
26.8% |
57.9% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
38.5% |
76.6% |
73.6% |
73.6% |
72.8% |
60.8% |
40.7% |
44.7% |
16.0% |
16.3% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Twenty at 08/27/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 125 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
3.5% |
33.2% |
20.4% |
5.3% |
4.9% |
24.1% |
11.5% |
28.3% |
8.0% |
44.8% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
24.0% |
65.0% |
55.1% |
50.1% |
50.1% |
68.6% |
56.6% |
58.6% |
47.2% |
60.4% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
17.2% |
54.4% |
43.5% |
35.1% |
35.0% |
53.7% |
41.5% |
48.5% |
34.1% |
55.2% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
25.6% |
57.8% |
48.3% |
38.2% |
38.2% |
58.9% |
49.3% |
56.6% |
42.3% |
62.6% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
22.5% |
72.2% |
61.9% |
61.9% |
61.9% |
78.3% |
63.9% |
60.6% |
52.1% |
58.2% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Twenty at 08/27/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 129 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
3.5% |
22.8% |
6.8% |
6.5% |
2.7% |
33.7% |
13.3% |
28.4% |
9.3% |
37.2% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
5.9% |
41.2% |
25.1% |
19.0% |
19.0% |
48.4% |
33.0% |
50.6% |
38.7% |
68.5% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
5.0% |
35.0% |
18.9% |
14.8% |
13.5% |
43.5% |
26.4% |
43.1% |
28.8% |
58.0% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
4.9% |
31.3% |
18.8% |
6.8% |
6.8% |
36.9% |
26.7% |
45.7% |
33.2% |
62.6% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
6.8% |
51.1% |
31.3% |
31.1% |
31.1% |
60.0% |
39.3% |
55.5% |
44.1% |
74.3% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Twenty at 08/27/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 134 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
1.6% |
14.8% |
6.5% |
1.1% |
0.1% |
5.1% |
2.1% |
28.4% |
2.0% |
59.7% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
2.1% |
24.3% |
11.8% |
7.9% |
7.9% |
35.6% |
20.5% |
43.2% |
29.7% |
64.1% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
1.8% |
21.1% |
10.0% |
5.6% |
5.3% |
25.4% |
14.3% |
38.2% |
20.4% |
62.6% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
1.2% |
15.0% |
7.6% |
1.8% |
1.8% |
24.4% |
17.1% |
42.0% |
26.9% |
62.6% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
2.9% |
33.7% |
15.9% |
14.0% |
14.0% |
46.8% |
23.8% |
44.3% |
32.5% |
65.6% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Twenty at 08/26/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 140 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
2.4% |
24.6% |
4.5% |
1.1% |
1.2% |
5.6% |
2.4% |
11.5% |
2.0% |
20.7% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
3.3% |
28.4% |
15.0% |
13.4% |
13.4% |
45.9% |
29.3% |
44.9% |
35.0% |
67.3% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
2.9% |
27.1% |
11.5% |
9.2% |
9.2% |
32.5% |
20.3% |
33.8% |
24.0% |
51.7% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
2.4% |
17.8% |
11.4% |
8.1% |
8.1% |
34.9% |
26.3% |
43.3% |
31.0% |
62.6% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
4.1% |
39.0% |
18.6% |
18.6% |
18.6% |
57.0% |
32.3% |
46.6% |
39.0% |
71.9% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Twenty at 08/26/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 140 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
3.2% |
27.8% |
12.6% |
5.8% |
4.8% |
20.1% |
9.9% |
21.5% |
4.0% |
31.4% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
3.0% |
28.2% |
14.5% |
11.1% |
11.1% |
45.4% |
29.4% |
49.6% |
39.0% |
63.5% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
3.1% |
28.0% |
13.8% |
9.2% |
8.9% |
36.9% |
22.9% |
40.2% |
27.3% |
52.7% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
2.4% |
19.2% |
11.2% |
4.4% |
4.4% |
34.9% |
25.3% |
50.6% |
36.8% |
62.6% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
3.7% |
37.2% |
17.9% |
17.7% |
17.7% |
55.9% |
33.5% |
48.6% |
41.2% |
64.3% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Twenty at 08/26/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 142 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
2.4% |
20.4% |
8.1% |
7.0% |
1.3% |
19.8% |
11.1% |
23.6% |
7.9% |
48.9% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
2.5% |
26.8% |
13.1% |
9.3% |
8.8% |
44.5% |
29.7% |
51.9% |
44.0% |
71.1% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
2.4% |
24.6% |
11.4% |
8.5% |
6.3% |
36.2% |
23.5% |
42.4% |
31.9% |
63.6% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
1.7% |
17.1% |
9.0% |
2.6% |
1.5% |
30.5% |
22.7% |
51.0% |
38.2% |
62.6% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
3.2% |
36.5% |
17.1% |
16.1% |
16.1% |
58.4% |
36.8% |
52.7% |
49.7% |
79.5% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|