Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current Twenty intensity image current Twenty RI diff image

 


Twenty at 08/31/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 136 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 6.7% 2.8% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 5.1% 0.0% 5.9% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
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Twenty at 08/31/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 127 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 4.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 7.5%
Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6%
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Twenty at 08/31/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 125 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1.7%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 3.1%
Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
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Bang-lang at 08/31/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 123 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.4% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 8.4%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.3% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 5.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% -0.0% 15.3%
Logistic Regression 0.5% 2.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 1.6%
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Bang-lang at 08/30/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 138 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.1% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 18.2%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 13.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 1.1% 0.1% 35.8%
Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7%
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Bang-lang at 08/30/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 140 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
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Bang-lang at 08/30/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 145 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 3.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
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Bang-lang at 08/30/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 147 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.5% 2.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.4% 0.2% 8.0% RIPA Consensus 1.4% 4.1% 2.1% 1.2% 0.9% 1.9% 0.4% 6.1% 1.4% 14.6%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.0% 3.5% 1.6% 0.8% 0.5% 1.2% 0.3% 5.5% 0.9% 12.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.6% 3.0% 2.2% 0.9% 0.2% 2.8% 0.7% 11.4% 2.6% 28.7%
Logistic Regression 1.2% 5.2% 2.1% 1.5% 1.5% 1.0% 0.2% 0.9% 0.1% 0.6%
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Bang-lang at 08/29/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 149 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 3.4% 4.9% 1.8% 1.2% 1.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 8.2% RIPA Consensus 1.4% 5.1% 2.6% 1.3% 1.0% 1.9% 0.3% 6.8% 1.5% 14.1%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.0% 5.0% 2.3% 1.2% 1.0% 1.5% 0.3% 4.5% 1.0% 12.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.8% 4.8% 3.1% 0.9% 0.6% 2.9% 0.5% 12.4% 3.0% 27.7%
Logistic Regression 1.0% 5.4% 2.2% 1.7% 1.5% 0.9% 0.1% 1.2% 0.1% 0.5%
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Bang-lang at 08/29/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 145 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 9.3% 17.6% 12.3% 18.2% 3.9% 5.4% 6.0% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 26.2% 39.0% 34.8% 29.3% 26.3% 21.2% 10.7% 17.8% 6.2% 12.6%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 20.5% 31.8% 27.3% 25.5% 18.8% 15.9% 9.1% 12.2% 4.2% 8.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 36.8% 40.6% 39.4% 28.4% 22.5% 32.2% 18.5% 29.8% 11.8% 24.4%
Logistic Regression 15.6% 37.4% 30.2% 30.2% 30.2% 10.2% 2.8% 5.7% 0.7% 0.7%
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Bang-lang at 08/29/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 145 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 15.2% 25.7% 26.2% 30.2% 16.9% 23.9% 24.4% 3.4% 1.0% 0.4% RIPA Consensus 33.7% 52.1% 45.2% 39.3% 36.2% 31.9% 16.4% 31.4% 14.0% 20.3%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 27.5% 43.2% 38.8% 36.3% 29.7% 29.2% 19.0% 22.0% 9.6% 13.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 51.3% 56.8% 52.3% 40.6% 34.3% 43.2% 25.9% 46.3% 24.9% 36.9%
Logistic Regression 16.1% 47.3% 38.1% 38.1% 38.1% 20.5% 6.9% 16.5% 3.1% 3.6%
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Bang-lang at 08/29/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 146 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 29.0% 33.7% 41.3% 36.6% 23.4% 30.3% 26.1% 9.9% 3.7% 2.6% RIPA Consensus 16.3% 51.5% 39.7% 35.5% 25.3% 31.3% 15.4% 30.6% 12.3% 23.4%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 20.5% 45.5% 40.2% 35.8% 24.6% 30.9% 18.9% 23.6% 9.4% 16.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 16.0% 48.3% 32.7% 24.3% 9.5% 33.2% 18.7% 41.5% 21.5% 42.9%
Logistic Regression 16.6% 54.7% 46.7% 46.7% 41.1% 29.4% 12.1% 19.6% 3.2% 3.8%
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Bang-lang at 08/28/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 139 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 24.0% 36.1% 24.2% 26.6% 19.1% 32.6% 17.7% 16.7% 1.2% 3.7% RIPA Consensus 35.3% 67.8% 58.7% 55.3% 43.2% 44.3% 24.4% 36.8% 16.1% 24.5%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 31.5% 57.2% 47.2% 45.7% 35.1% 40.4% 22.2% 30.0% 11.1% 17.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 38.5% 64.7% 50.0% 43.2% 23.8% 44.2% 26.4% 45.8% 24.8% 41.3%
Logistic Regression 32.1% 71.0% 67.4% 67.4% 62.5% 44.4% 22.5% 27.8% 7.3% 7.6%
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Bang-lang at 08/28/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 137 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 26.4% 46.1% 38.7% 33.6% 26.6% 43.9% 33.9% 28.5% 12.2% 6.5% RIPA Consensus 46.7% 74.2% 70.1% 65.4% 56.4% 59.3% 40.0% 45.4% 21.4% 37.1%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 39.9% 64.8% 59.6% 54.8% 46.4% 54.1% 37.9% 39.7% 18.3% 26.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 54.8% 71.8% 66.5% 57.3% 40.0% 57.8% 39.3% 46.1% 26.8% 57.9%
Logistic Regression 38.5% 76.6% 73.6% 73.6% 72.8% 60.8% 40.7% 44.7% 16.0% 16.3%
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Twenty at 08/27/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 125 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 3.5% 33.2% 20.4% 5.3% 4.9% 24.1% 11.5% 28.3% 8.0% 44.8% RIPA Consensus 24.0% 65.0% 55.1% 50.1% 50.1% 68.6% 56.6% 58.6% 47.2% 60.4%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 17.2% 54.4% 43.5% 35.1% 35.0% 53.7% 41.5% 48.5% 34.1% 55.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 25.6% 57.8% 48.3% 38.2% 38.2% 58.9% 49.3% 56.6% 42.3% 62.6%
Logistic Regression 22.5% 72.2% 61.9% 61.9% 61.9% 78.3% 63.9% 60.6% 52.1% 58.2%
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Twenty at 08/27/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 129 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 3.5% 22.8% 6.8% 6.5% 2.7% 33.7% 13.3% 28.4% 9.3% 37.2% RIPA Consensus 5.9% 41.2% 25.1% 19.0% 19.0% 48.4% 33.0% 50.6% 38.7% 68.5%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 5.0% 35.0% 18.9% 14.8% 13.5% 43.5% 26.4% 43.1% 28.8% 58.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 4.9% 31.3% 18.8% 6.8% 6.8% 36.9% 26.7% 45.7% 33.2% 62.6%
Logistic Regression 6.8% 51.1% 31.3% 31.1% 31.1% 60.0% 39.3% 55.5% 44.1% 74.3%
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Twenty at 08/27/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 134 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.6% 14.8% 6.5% 1.1% 0.1% 5.1% 2.1% 28.4% 2.0% 59.7% RIPA Consensus 2.1% 24.3% 11.8% 7.9% 7.9% 35.6% 20.5% 43.2% 29.7% 64.1%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.8% 21.1% 10.0% 5.6% 5.3% 25.4% 14.3% 38.2% 20.4% 62.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.2% 15.0% 7.6% 1.8% 1.8% 24.4% 17.1% 42.0% 26.9% 62.6%
Logistic Regression 2.9% 33.7% 15.9% 14.0% 14.0% 46.8% 23.8% 44.3% 32.5% 65.6%
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Twenty at 08/26/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 140 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.4% 24.6% 4.5% 1.1% 1.2% 5.6% 2.4% 11.5% 2.0% 20.7% RIPA Consensus 3.3% 28.4% 15.0% 13.4% 13.4% 45.9% 29.3% 44.9% 35.0% 67.3%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.9% 27.1% 11.5% 9.2% 9.2% 32.5% 20.3% 33.8% 24.0% 51.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.4% 17.8% 11.4% 8.1% 8.1% 34.9% 26.3% 43.3% 31.0% 62.6%
Logistic Regression 4.1% 39.0% 18.6% 18.6% 18.6% 57.0% 32.3% 46.6% 39.0% 71.9%
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Twenty at 08/26/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 140 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 3.2% 27.8% 12.6% 5.8% 4.8% 20.1% 9.9% 21.5% 4.0% 31.4% RIPA Consensus 3.0% 28.2% 14.5% 11.1% 11.1% 45.4% 29.4% 49.6% 39.0% 63.5%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.1% 28.0% 13.8% 9.2% 8.9% 36.9% 22.9% 40.2% 27.3% 52.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.4% 19.2% 11.2% 4.4% 4.4% 34.9% 25.3% 50.6% 36.8% 62.6%
Logistic Regression 3.7% 37.2% 17.9% 17.7% 17.7% 55.9% 33.5% 48.6% 41.2% 64.3%
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Twenty at 08/26/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 142 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.4% 20.4% 8.1% 7.0% 1.3% 19.8% 11.1% 23.6% 7.9% 48.9% RIPA Consensus 2.5% 26.8% 13.1% 9.3% 8.8% 44.5% 29.7% 51.9% 44.0% 71.1%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.4% 24.6% 11.4% 8.5% 6.3% 36.2% 23.5% 42.4% 31.9% 63.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.7% 17.1% 9.0% 2.6% 1.5% 30.5% 22.7% 51.0% 38.2% 62.6%
Logistic Regression 3.2% 36.5% 17.1% 16.1% 16.1% 58.4% 36.8% 52.7% 49.7% 79.5%
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