Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)     Twenty-Two at 09/09/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 114 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% 0.1% 2.0% 0.5% 2.7% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Twenty-Two at 09/09/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 114 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Krovanh at 09/09/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 110 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 1.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 1.1% 0.2% 2.9% 0.4% 3.1% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.9% 0.1% 1.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Krovanh at 09/09/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 106 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.8% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Krovanh at 09/08/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 105 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Krovanh at 09/08/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 105 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.8% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Krovanh at 09/08/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 129 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.8% 4.8% 1.7% 1.4% 1.1% 2.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.5% 3.1% 1.1% 0.9% 0.7% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.3% 1.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 1.2% 8.6% 3.0% 2.5% 2.2% 4.3% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Krovanh at 09/08/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 120 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.6% 4.5% 1.5% 1.2% 1.1% 1.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.5% 3.1% 1.1% 0.8% 0.7% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.3% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 1.0% 8.1% 2.6% 2.1% 2.1% 3.3% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Krovanh at 09/07/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 122 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.3% RIPA Consensus 0.4% 3.6% 1.2% 0.9% 0.8% 3.1% 0.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.4% 2.5% 0.8% 0.6% 0.6% 2.0% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.7% 6.4% 2.0% 1.7% 1.7% 5.6% 1.3% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Krovanh at 09/07/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 118 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 4.7% RIPA Consensus 0.5% 4.6% 1.6% 1.3% 1.1% 6.3% 2.0% 1.8% 0.6% 0.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.4% 3.1% 1.1% 0.8% 0.7% 4.2% 1.3% 1.2% 0.4% 1.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.2% 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 1.1% 0.6% 1.0% 0.1% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.9% 8.3% 2.9% 2.4% 2.1% 11.4% 3.3% 2.7% 1.1% 0.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Krovanh at 09/07/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 120 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.3% 1.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.5% 4.8% 1.7% 1.3% 1.1% 7.0% 2.2% 4.3% 1.4% 0.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.7% 3.5% 1.2% 0.8% 0.7% 4.8% 1.4% 3.0% 0.9% 0.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.2% 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 1.5% 0.8% 3.6% 0.7% 0.4% Logistic Regression 0.9% 8.6% 2.9% 2.4% 2.2% 12.6% 3.6% 5.0% 2.1% 1.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Krovanh at 09/07/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 118 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.7% 5.4% 1.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.9% 0.2% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.3% 3.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.7% 4.7% 1.3% 4.9% 1.7% 4.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.4% 3.9% 1.2% 0.6% 0.5% 3.4% 0.9% 3.7% 1.1% 2.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 1.1% 0.5% 4.5% 1.0% 3.8% Logistic Regression 0.5% 5.8% 1.7% 1.4% 1.4% 8.4% 2.2% 5.2% 2.4% 5.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Krovanh at 09/06/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 109 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.5% 11.2% 4.2% 1.9% 0.1% 1.0% 0.3% 1.8% 0.1% 7.0% RIPA Consensus 0.4% 3.6% 1.2% 1.0% 1.0% 3.7% 1.0% 2.7% 0.9% 2.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.4% 6.1% 2.1% 1.3% 0.7% 2.7% 0.7% 2.4% 0.6% 4.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.7% 0.4% 1.7% 0.2% 2.4% Logistic Regression 0.7% 6.6% 2.1% 1.9% 1.9% 6.6% 1.7% 3.7% 1.5% 3.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Krovanh at 09/06/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 108 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.9% 4.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 1.0% 0.2% 1.5% 0.0% 0.6% RIPA Consensus 0.4% 3.6% 1.2% 1.0% 0.9% 4.4% 1.2% 2.7% 1.0% 4.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.6% 3.7% 1.0% 0.7% 0.6% 3.2% 0.8% 2.3% 0.6% 2.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.9% 0.1% 3.2% Logistic Regression 0.8% 6.7% 2.1% 1.9% 1.9% 8.2% 2.1% 4.6% 1.9% 5.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Krovanh at 09/06/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 113 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.7% 1.3% 0.2% 0.6% 0.0% 4.7% 0.6% 2.1% 0.3% 1.5% RIPA Consensus 0.5% 4.9% 1.7% 1.4% 1.3% 7.1% 2.2% 4.7% 1.9% 6.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.6% 3.7% 1.1% 1.1% 0.8% 6.3% 1.6% 3.8% 1.4% 4.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.2% 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 1.5% 0.7% 2.1% 0.4% 2.7% Logistic Regression 0.9% 8.9% 2.9% 2.6% 2.6% 12.7% 3.7% 7.3% 3.5% 10.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------                                   Krovanh at 09/06/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 116 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 1.3% 0.0% 2.8% RIPA Consensus 0.6% 5.6% 2.0% 1.7% 1.5% 7.0% 2.1% 4.6% 2.0% 6.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.4% 4.1% 1.4% 1.1% 1.0% 4.7% 1.4% 3.5% 1.3% 5.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.2% 1.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 1.2% 0.5% 1.2% 0.2% 1.6% Logistic Regression 1.0% 10.1% 3.6% 3.2% 3.0% 12.8% 3.8% 8.0% 3.9% 11.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Krovanh at 09/05/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 120 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.7% 4.4% 1.1% 0.2% 0.3% 1.2% 0.4% 2.3% 0.7% 5.7% RIPA Consensus 0.3% 3.3% 1.2% 0.9% 0.7% 3.6% 1.0% 2.9% 1.1% 5.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.4% 3.6% 1.1% 0.7% 0.5% 2.8% 0.7% 2.6% 0.9% 5.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 1.1% Logistic Regression 0.6% 6.0% 2.1% 1.8% 1.4% 7.0% 1.9% 5.4% 2.0% 9.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Krovanh at 09/05/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 123 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.6% 0.6% 1.3% 0.2% 0.1% 1.1% 0.2% 1.9% 0.4% 2.3% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 1.9% 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 1.6% 0.4% 1.7% 0.5% 4.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.3% 1.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 1.4% 0.3% 1.8% 0.4% 3.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 2.1% Logistic Regression 0.4% 3.3% 1.1% 0.8% 0.7% 3.0% 0.7% 3.1% 0.9% 6.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Krovanh at 09/05/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 125 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.3% 1.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.7% 0.2% 1.0% 0.1% 2.4% RIPA Consensus 0.6% 3.5% 1.2% 1.0% 0.9% 2.3% 0.5% 1.3% 0.4% 3.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.4% 2.8% 0.8% 0.7% 0.6% 1.7% 0.4% 1.2% 0.2% 2.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 2.0% Logistic Regression 1.0% 6.4% 2.1% 1.9% 1.9% 4.2% 0.9% 2.3% 0.6% 4.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Krovanh at 09/05/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 128 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 1.2% RIPA Consensus 0.8% 5.7% 2.5% 2.3% 2.2% 4.0% 1.0% 2.8% 0.7% 3.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.6% 4.0% 1.7% 1.5% 1.4% 2.6% 0.6% 2.1% 0.4% 2.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.3% 1.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 1.4% 0.4% 0.8% 0.1% 1.6% Logistic Regression 1.3% 10.3% 4.3% 4.3% 4.3% 6.5% 1.6% 4.8% 1.3% 4.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Krovanh at 09/04/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 128 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.1% 2.4% 0.6% 1.0% 0.2% 3.1% 0.1% 2.5% 0.1% 4.9% RIPA Consensus 4.9% 22.3% 15.0% 13.9% 13.0% 16.7% 6.9% 7.3% 2.8% 5.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.6% 15.6% 10.2% 9.6% 8.7% 12.1% 4.6% 5.7% 1.9% 5.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 3.8% 10.8% 6.9% 4.8% 2.9% 7.7% 3.3% 1.5% 0.2% 0.7% Logistic Regression 6.0% 33.8% 23.1% 23.1% 23.1% 25.7% 10.6% 13.1% 5.4% 9.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------                                                         Krovanh at 09/04/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 130 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.3% 1.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 1.0% 0.1% 1.1% RIPA Consensus 0.5% 4.4% 1.7% 1.7% 1.4% 4.5% 1.2% 2.8% 0.9% 2.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.4% 3.3% 1.2% 1.2% 0.9% 3.1% 0.8% 2.2% 0.6% 2.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.3% 0.9% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 1.4% 0.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.5% Logistic Regression 0.7% 7.9% 2.9% 2.8% 2.8% 7.6% 2.0% 4.9% 1.6% 4.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Krovanh at 09/04/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 131 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.4% 1.4% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 1.2% 0.1% 1.3% 0.2% 4.0% RIPA Consensus 0.6% 4.6% 1.7% 1.7% 1.4% 4.8% 1.2% 3.5% 1.1% 4.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.5% 3.5% 1.2% 1.2% 1.0% 3.6% 0.8% 2.7% 0.7% 4.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.4% 1.0% 0.6% 0.5% 0.0% 1.6% 0.5% 1.0% 0.1% 1.4% Logistic Regression 0.8% 8.2% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 8.0% 2.0% 6.1% 2.0% 6.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Krovanh at 09/03/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 124 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.7% 0.1% 1.0% 0.2% 9.3% RIPA Consensus 0.5% 3.6% 1.2% 1.2% 1.0% 3.8% 0.9% 3.2% 1.0% 6.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.3% 2.5% 0.8% 0.8% 0.6% 2.7% 0.6% 2.4% 0.7% 7.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.3% 0.8% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 1.1% 0.4% 0.9% 0.1% 3.1% Logistic Regression 0.6% 6.3% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 6.5% 1.5% 5.5% 1.8% 9.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Krovanh at 09/03/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 119 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.2% 2.0% 2.1% 0.2% 0.4% 2.3% 0.5% 3.7% 0.3% 22.1% RIPA Consensus 0.6% 4.7% 1.7% 1.6% 1.4% 5.0% 1.3% 3.7% 1.2% 5.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.8% 3.7% 1.8% 1.1% 1.0% 4.1% 1.0% 3.7% 0.8% 10.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.4% 1.2% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 1.5% 0.4% 0.7% 0.1% 1.9% Logistic Regression 0.8% 8.2% 2.9% 2.8% 2.8% 8.5% 2.2% 6.7% 2.3% 8.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Krovanh at 09/03/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 118 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.2% 1.4% 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 2.9% 0.8% 6.2% 0.6% 18.7% RIPA Consensus 1.2% 6.3% 2.6% 2.6% 2.2% 4.4% 1.2% 3.0% 0.9% 3.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.2% 4.6% 1.8% 1.8% 1.5% 3.9% 1.0% 4.0% 0.7% 8.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.7% 1.8% 0.9% 0.9% 0.1% 1.1% 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.7% Logistic Regression 1.7% 10.8% 4.3% 4.3% 4.3% 7.7% 2.0% 5.5% 1.7% 6.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------           Krovanh at 09/03/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 122 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.2% 1.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 2.5% 0.1% 6.8% RIPA Consensus 2.2% 10.1% 4.5% 3.9% 3.5% 8.9% 2.9% 7.1% 2.6% 11.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.8% 7.1% 3.0% 2.6% 2.3% 6.1% 1.9% 5.6% 1.7% 9.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.8% 5.0% 2.8% 1.6% 0.8% 3.9% 1.6% 5.0% 1.1% 7.6% Logistic Regression 2.6% 15.3% 6.1% 6.1% 6.1% 13.9% 4.1% 9.3% 4.0% 15.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Krovanh at 09/02/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 120 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.1% 10.7% 1.2% 0.6% 0.8% 1.1% 0.4% 2.8% 0.1% 13.0% RIPA Consensus 2.8% 9.7% 4.8% 4.4% 4.0% 5.4% 1.5% 1.6% 0.5% 1.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.2% 10.0% 3.6% 3.1% 2.9% 3.9% 1.1% 2.0% 0.3% 5.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.1% 3.6% 2.4% 1.6% 0.9% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1% -0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 3.6% 15.8% 7.2% 7.2% 7.2% 9.2% 2.5% 3.1% 1.0% 3.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Krovanh at 09/02/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 114 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.0% 20.3% 6.7% 1.5% 3.5% 3.9% 2.0% 7.8% 0.5% 1.3% RIPA Consensus 1.3% 10.9% 5.3% 5.0% 4.1% 7.8% 2.7% 2.6% 0.9% 3.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.1% 14.0% 5.7% 3.8% 3.9% 6.4% 2.5% 4.3% 0.7% 2.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.5% 3.5% 1.7% 1.7% 0.1% 1.6% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.6% Logistic Regression 2.1% 18.3% 8.9% 8.4% 8.2% 13.9% 4.8% 4.9% 1.7% 5.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------                       Krovanh at 09/02/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 126 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.2% 29.3% 11.6% 2.8% 2.3% 13.9% 10.3% 10.6% 3.5% 8.5% RIPA Consensus 1.8% 15.9% 8.6% 8.4% 7.1% 15.4% 6.8% 7.7% 3.1% 6.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.9% 20.3% 9.5% 6.5% 5.5% 14.9% 7.9% 8.7% 3.2% 6.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.7% 5.6% 2.9% 2.8% 0.2% 5.4% 2.7% 3.3% 0.8% 1.9% Logistic Regression 2.8% 26.1% 14.2% 14.0% 14.0% 25.4% 10.8% 12.2% 5.4% 10.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Krovanh at 09/02/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 119 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.3% 12.4% 4.7% 1.1% 1.2% 8.2% 4.1% 7.0% 3.6% 6.6% RIPA Consensus 0.7% 8.0% 3.5% 3.1% 2.7% 10.3% 3.9% 6.0% 2.2% 6.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.9% 9.5% 3.9% 2.4% 2.2% 9.6% 3.9% 6.3% 2.6% 6.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 1.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.0% 2.6% 1.2% 2.4% 0.5% 3.6% Logistic Regression 1.4% 14.4% 6.4% 5.7% 5.5% 18.0% 6.6% 9.6% 3.8% 9.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Krovanh at 09/01/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 115 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.0% 1.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 2.4% 1.7% 8.2% 1.0% 6.6% RIPA Consensus 1.7% 12.9% 6.4% 6.2% 5.2% 17.7% 8.1% 13.2% 5.6% 8.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.8% 9.1% 4.4% 4.2% 3.5% 12.6% 6.0% 11.5% 4.0% 8.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.0% 4.8% 2.6% 2.2% 0.2% 7.8% 4.2% 8.8% 2.9% 5.5% Logistic Regression 2.5% 20.9% 10.2% 10.2% 10.2% 27.6% 12.1% 17.6% 8.3% 12.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Krovanh at 09/01/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 110 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.2% 8.5% 2.6% 1.0% 0.5% 3.3% 2.5% 17.8% 1.3% 15.6% RIPA Consensus 1.8% 14.8% 7.9% 7.7% 6.6% 17.6% 8.5% 15.0% 6.6% 5.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.3% 12.7% 6.1% 5.4% 4.5% 12.8% 6.5% 15.9% 4.8% 9.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.0% 5.6% 2.9% 2.5% 0.3% 6.8% 3.5% 9.2% 3.0% 2.3% Logistic Regression 2.7% 24.0% 12.9% 12.9% 12.9% 28.5% 13.5% 20.9% 10.2% 9.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Krovanh at 09/01/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 111 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 5.6% 19.5% 5.3% 2.8% 0.9% 9.6% 3.3% 11.4% 1.1% 3.4% RIPA Consensus 1.7% 11.6% 5.9% 5.7% 4.9% 11.8% 4.7% 8.5% 3.9% 4.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.0% 14.2% 5.6% 4.7% 3.5% 11.0% 4.2% 9.4% 2.9% 4.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.2% 4.3% 2.4% 2.0% 0.4% 3.8% 1.8% 2.8% 0.6% 0.7% Logistic Regression 2.3% 18.9% 9.3% 9.3% 9.3% 19.8% 7.7% 14.1% 7.2% 8.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------