Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index

 

current  intensity image current  RI diff image

 


Bonnie at 07/02/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 148 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.3% 19.7% 7.0% 7.0% 1.3% 7.9% 6.7% 26.1% SHIPS Consensus 1.9% 10.3% 5.1% 4.1% 2.1% 7.8% 8.5% 11.8%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.0% 12.6% 5.5% 4.8% 1.9% 7.8% 8.0% 15.3% SHIPS-RII 2.1% 12.3% 8.3% 7.1% 0.0% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.1% 11.3% 4.0% 3.5% 0.6% 4.9% 3.8% 14.5% Logistic Regression 3.2% 16.0% 6.3% 5.0% 6.2% 13.1% 25.4% 32.7%
Bayesian 0.4% 2.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 2.6%
DTOPS 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 3.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Bonnie at 07/02/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 149 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 4.5% 25.9% 18.2% 14.3% 3.1% 7.4% 6.4% 29.4% SHIPS Consensus 5.4% 23.6% 10.6% 7.5% 4.1% 7.7% 19.7% 47.3%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.1% 24.1% 12.5% 9.2% 3.8% 7.6% 16.3% 42.8% SHIPS-RII 5.3% 16.8% 10.7% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 19.7% 20.8%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.7% 14.9% 10.1% 7.6% 1.5% 4.2% 3.7% 15.7% Logistic Regression 9.0% 35.9% 19.3% 13.0% 11.9% 21.3% 37.1% 48.1%
Bayesian 1.9% 18.0% 1.8% 0.5% 0.4% 1.7% 2.3% 73.1%
DTOPS 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Bonnie at 07/02/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 152 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 42.2% 60.0% 49.0% 32.8% 16.5% 31.5% 41.3% 29.1% SHIPS Consensus 14.2% 51.4% 30.0% 22.9% 17.5% 20.6% 31.7% 63.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 21.1% 53.5% 34.8% 25.4% 17.2% 23.2% 34.1% 54.6% SHIPS-RII 12.0% 39.4% 28.5% 20.0% 10.3% 0.0% 32.4% 36.8%
AI-RI and DTOPS 21.1% 30.5% 25.0% 16.4% 8.2% 15.7% 20.6% 15.0% Logistic Regression 21.0% 65.0% 47.9% 42.3% 38.2% 51.8% 54.9% 69.0%
Bayesian 9.5% 49.9% 13.8% 6.5% 3.9% 9.9% 7.9% 83.9%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Bonnie at 07/01/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 151 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 36.7% 56.6% 49.0% 36.2% 6.7% 44.1% 46.4% 42.9% SHIPS Consensus 12.2% 46.3% 27.4% 15.3% 12.0% 25.2% 26.1% 62.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 18.3% 48.8% 32.8% 20.5% 10.7% 29.9% 31.1% 57.3% SHIPS-RII 6.6% 26.5% 19.7% 10.3% 7.7% 15.4% 25.6% 31.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 18.8% 28.8% 24.5% 18.1% 3.3% 22.0% 23.2% 21.9% Logistic Regression 20.0% 54.7% 39.0% 30.0% 24.0% 39.4% 51.3% 68.6%
Bayesian 10.0% 57.6% 23.5% 5.7% 4.4% 20.9% 1.4% 86.8%
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Two at 07/01/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 154 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 12.0% 54.7% 26.7% 31.7% 4.2% 22.4% 20.9% 34.6% SHIPS Consensus 4.6% 27.7% 12.4% 7.5% 6.2% 16.1% 25.6% 59.8%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 6.4% 34.4% 15.9% 13.5% 5.7% 17.7% 24.4% 53.4% SHIPS-RII 4.0% 14.8% 9.7% 8.3% 6.1% 10.3% 11.7% 20.4%
AI-RI and DTOPS 6.5% 27.3% 13.3% 15.8% 2.1% 11.2% 10.4% 17.8% Logistic Regression 7.5% 40.7% 21.9% 12.9% 12.0% 35.1% 61.9% 79.2%
Bayesian 2.4% 27.5% 5.6% 1.4% 0.6% 3.1% 3.3% 79.8%
DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Two at 07/01/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 145 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 6.4% 46.7% 14.2% 16.3% 2.1% 16.4% 16.0% 34.1% SHIPS Consensus 3.6% 26.0% 11.6% 6.3% 5.2% 13.5% 23.0% 66.6%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.3% 31.1% 12.2% 8.8% 4.4% 14.2% 21.2% 58.5% SHIPS-RII 3.5% 14.1% 9.2% 7.6% 5.7% 10.3% 12.3% 31.1%
AI-RI and DTOPS 4.2% 23.8% 7.6% 8.1% 1.0% 8.2% 8.0% 17.5% Logistic Regression 5.7% 43.9% 24.0% 11.0% 9.5% 27.7% 54.9% 82.4%
Bayesian 1.6% 19.8% 1.6% 0.4% 0.4% 2.4% 1.7% 86.4%
DTOPS 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Two at 07/01/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 139 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.1% 30.6% 7.5% 15.5% 12.8% 12.4% 19.1% 36.8% SHIPS Consensus 2.6% 16.6% 7.3% 3.8% 2.7% 7.8% 17.9% 54.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.5% 20.0% 7.3% 6.7% 5.2% 8.9% 18.2% 49.7% SHIPS-RII 3.3% 13.5% 8.9% 7.5% 5.5% 10.1% 11.9% 28.2%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.5% 17.3% 4.7% 8.2% 6.4% 6.2% 9.5% 18.4% Logistic Regression 3.4% 23.6% 10.8% 3.6% 2.2% 11.2% 40.6% 68.6%
Bayesian 1.3% 12.6% 2.3% 0.3% 0.3% 2.0% 1.4% 65.5%
DTOPS 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Two at 06/30/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 131 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.4% 24.6% 11.0% 7.6% 5.8% 9.7% 17.9% 34.3% SHIPS Consensus 2.7% 16.7% 7.2% 4.1% 2.9% 9.3% 15.3% 37.8%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.3% 18.6% 8.1% 4.9% 3.6% 9.4% 15.9% 36.9% SHIPS-RII 5.0% 17.0% 10.7% 9.1% 6.8% 11.3% 14.3% 21.3%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.2% 13.3% 6.0% 3.8% 2.9% 4.8% 8.9% 17.1% Logistic Regression 2.6% 18.7% 8.5% 2.9% 1.8% 14.5% 31.2% 68.6%
Bayesian 0.4% 14.4% 2.5% 0.2% 0.1% 2.1% 0.3% 23.7%
DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Two at 06/30/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 136 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.9% 24.1% 8.3% 7.2% 0.5% 8.4% 19.8% 29.3% SHIPS Consensus 2.5% 15.3% 6.2% 3.6% 2.6% 8.4% 15.0% 35.8%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.1% 17.5% 6.7% 4.4% 2.0% 8.4% 16.1% 34.2% SHIPS-RII 4.6% 15.9% 10.1% 8.6% 6.4% 10.9% 14.4% 24.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.9% 13.0% 4.6% 3.6% 0.2% 4.2% 9.9% 14.6% Logistic Regression 2.4% 15.3% 6.5% 2.0% 1.3% 12.1% 29.3% 66.6%
Bayesian 0.5% 14.7% 1.9% 0.1% 0.1% 2.3% 1.2% 16.9%
DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Two at 06/30/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 131 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.6% 26.3% 7.1% 4.8% 4.4% 12.3% 23.9% 18.7% SHIPS Consensus 2.4% 13.5% 5.7% 3.3% 2.4% 6.9% 13.4% 29.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.9% 16.7% 6.0% 3.6% 2.8% 8.2% 16.0% 26.5% SHIPS-RII 3.9% 14.5% 9.4% 7.9% 5.9% 10.5% 12.3% 21.6%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.3% 14.6% 4.5% 2.9% 2.2% 6.1% 11.9% 9.3% Logistic Regression 2.4% 13.7% 6.0% 1.7% 1.1% 8.2% 26.9% 57.1%
Bayesian 1.0% 12.4% 1.7% 0.1% 0.1% 1.8% 0.9% 8.8%
DTOPS 2.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Two at 06/30/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 127 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.0% 30.7% 23.0% 15.6% 8.0% 12.8% 20.6% 35.3% SHIPS Consensus 2.6% 16.8% 7.6% 4.7% 3.4% 9.1% 14.8% 43.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.4% 20.2% 11.4% 7.3% 4.5% 10.0% 16.2% 41.0% SHIPS-RII 3.8% 15.1% 9.7% 8.2% 6.1% 10.5% 12.2% 17.9%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 3.4% 22.8% 11.4% 5.7% 3.8% 14.8% 30.5% 70.0%
Bayesian 0.6% 12.5% 1.7% 0.1% 0.1% 2.0% 1.7% 41.1%
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Two at 06/29/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 118 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 4.9% 33.8% 20.2% 10.1% 3.4% 21.5% 31.6% 39.2% SHIPS Consensus 2.4% 15.8% 5.5% 3.4% 2.4% 8.7% 17.6% 44.9%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.0% 20.3% 9.1% 5.0% 2.6% 11.9% 21.1% 43.5% SHIPS-RII 3.1% 13.9% 9.1% 7.7% 5.7% 10.2% 11.8% 21.5%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.4% 17.9% 10.6% 5.0% 1.7% 10.7% 15.8% 19.6% Logistic Regression 2.3% 13.3% 5.1% 2.1% 1.5% 12.9% 35.5% 70.1%
Bayesian 1.8% 20.3% 2.3% 0.2% 0.1% 3.0% 5.6% 43.3%
DTOPS 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Two at 06/29/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 124 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.1% 20.2% 7.3% 4.2% 2.0% 11.7% 15.5% 38.1% SHIPS Consensus 2.3% 9.5% 4.8% 2.9% 2.0% 6.3% 15.5% 31.4%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.0% 12.1% 5.4% 3.2% 1.9% 7.6% 15.5% 33.1% SHIPS-RII 2.5% 11.6% 7.9% 6.8% 4.9% 9.4% 11.2% 17.3%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.0% 11.1% 4.1% 2.1% 1.0% 5.8% 8.2% 19.0% Logistic Regression 2.5% 10.3% 4.7% 1.7% 0.9% 7.7% 26.5% 41.6%
Bayesian 1.9% 6.6% 1.9% 0.3% 0.1% 1.8% 8.8% 35.4%
DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Two at 06/29/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 124 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 8.5% 31.1% 14.2% 11.5% 4.7% 16.3% 21.6% 33.8% SHIPS Consensus 2.5% 11.5% 5.5% 3.7% 2.6% 8.5% 13.2% 33.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.0% 16.4% 7.6% 5.6% 3.0% 10.4% 15.2% 33.2% SHIPS-RII 2.5% 11.5% 7.9% 6.7% 4.8% 9.4% 10.6% 15.4%
AI-RI and DTOPS 4.7% 16.0% 7.6% 5.7% 2.3% 8.1% 10.8% 16.9% Logistic Regression 3.4% 15.2% 7.3% 4.2% 2.8% 15.1% 24.0% 43.8%
Bayesian 1.7% 7.9% 1.4% 0.2% 0.1% 1.1% 4.9% 40.1%
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Two at 06/29/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 126 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.3% 29.6% 9.1% 5.5% 2.4% 11.1% 23.0% 37.4% SHIPS Consensus 2.9% 14.3% 6.4% 4.6% 3.4% 8.2% 13.5% 32.5%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.5% 18.1% 7.0% 4.8% 3.1% 8.9% 15.9% 33.7% SHIPS-RII 3.5% 13.8% 9.0% 7.5% 5.3% 9.9% 10.8% 15.5%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.6% 18.3% 6.5% 4.2% 1.2% 5.5% 11.5% 19.2% Logistic Regression 4.1% 21.0% 9.3% 6.3% 4.7% 14.3% 26.2% 47.4%
Bayesian 1.2% 8.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 3.6% 34.7%
DTOPS 4.0% 7.0% 4.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Two at 06/28/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 128 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 4.7% 45.8% 14.8% 29.9% 2.1% 16.2% 37.6% 45.1% SHIPS Consensus 5.3% 25.1% 8.7% 5.0% 3.5% 10.3% 16.0% 42.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.1% 30.2% 10.2% 11.2% 3.1% 11.7% 21.4% 42.7% SHIPS-RII 4.9% 16.2% 10.3% 8.5% 6.2% 10.9% 11.9% 20.4%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.8% 25.9% 8.9% 15.9% 1.0% 8.1% 18.8% 22.5% Logistic Regression 7.4% 22.1% 9.9% 5.4% 3.9% 14.1% 33.7% 60.6%
Bayesian 3.5% 37.0% 5.8% 1.1% 0.5% 5.9% 2.4% 45.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 6.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Two at 06/28/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 134 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 9.7% 32.3% 29.0% 15.4% 8.4% 32.5% 29.0% 43.1% SHIPS Consensus 6.4% 23.3% 11.9% 6.9% 4.4% 12.7% 14.6% 36.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 7.2% 25.5% 16.1% 9.0% 5.4% 17.6% 18.1% 37.8% SHIPS-RII 5.0% 16.8% 10.5% 8.5% 6.3% 10.6% 11.8% 18.3%
AI-RI and DTOPS 5.3% 17.6% 15.5% 8.2% 4.2% 16.2% 14.5% 21.5% Logistic Regression 9.7% 31.5% 18.1% 10.9% 6.5% 21.6% 22.4% 29.0%
Bayesian 4.4% 21.5% 7.0% 1.3% 0.5% 5.9% 9.5% 61.1%
DTOPS 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Two at 06/28/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 136 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.6% 21.3% 5.4% 2.9% 2.3% 4.7% 11.9% 45.7% SHIPS Consensus 1.7% 8.2% 3.8% 2.3% 1.6% 3.9% 5.9% 16.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.6% 11.5% 4.2% 2.4% 1.7% 4.0% 7.4% 23.5% SHIPS-RII 2.4% 11.6% 7.7% 6.0% 4.3% 8.5% 10.6% 16.8%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.3% 11.6% 3.2% 1.4% 1.1% 2.3% 5.9% 22.8% Logistic Regression 1.7% 8.5% 2.9% 0.8% 0.4% 2.4% 6.1% 12.6%
Bayesian 1.0% 4.7% 1.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.7% 1.0% 19.1%
DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Two at 06/28/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 138 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.8% 33.9% 10.2% 11.1% 5.6% 15.5% 20.1% 47.6% SHIPS Consensus 4.8% 29.6% 14.9% 7.9% 5.0% 12.8% 19.0% 29.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.7% 30.6% 13.7% 8.6% 5.1% 13.4% 19.3% 33.7% SHIPS-RII 6.0% 26.4% 17.5% 9.6% 7.1% 12.6% 13.4% 18.5%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 6.3% 42.1% 23.1% 12.9% 7.7% 20.0% 19.2% 31.1%
Bayesian 2.0% 20.2% 4.0% 1.1% 0.3% 5.8% 24.5% 37.9%
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


at 06/27/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 136 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 24.6% 52.2% 26.8% 20.2% 8.8% 33.0% 42.5% 47.8% SHIPS Consensus 7.3% 35.6% 17.4% 7.2% 4.7% 14.2% 22.4% 43.6%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 11.6% 39.7% 19.7% 10.4% 5.7% 18.9% 27.4% 44.6% SHIPS-RII 6.5% 27.9% 18.9% 9.8% 7.3% 15.0% 22.4% 27.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 13.8% 28.1% 14.9% 10.6% 4.4% 17.0% 21.7% 23.9% Logistic Regression 10.8% 36.7% 19.7% 8.7% 5.5% 16.2% 28.7% 49.1%
Bayesian 4.6% 42.2% 13.7% 3.1% 1.4% 11.4% 16.0% 54.7%
DTOPS 3.0% 4.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0%
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