Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index

 

current Two intensity image current Two RI diff image

 


Arlene at 06/03/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 118 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.9% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% N/A SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% Logistic Regression 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Arlene at 06/03/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 120 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 1.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% N/A SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% Logistic Regression 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Arlene at 06/03/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 118 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 2.2% SHIPS Consensus 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% N/A SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 1.1% Logistic Regression 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Arlene at 06/03/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 118 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 4.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 1.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 2.0% Logistic Regression 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Arlene at 06/02/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 111 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 8.2% SHIPS Consensus 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 2.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 4.1% Logistic Regression 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Two at 06/02/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 118 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.4% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.4% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.8% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.7% Logistic Regression 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Two at 06/02/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 104 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.9% SHIPS Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus SHIPS-RII N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Bayesian N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Two at 06/02/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 106 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.2% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% Logistic Regression 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Two at 06/01/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 102 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.4% SHIPS Consensus 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.7% Logistic Regression 0.6% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------