Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index

 

current Colin intensity image current Colin RI diff image

 


Colin at 07/03/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 94 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 1.2% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 0.9% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A SHIPS-RII 1.6% 3.3% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% Logistic Regression 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Colin at 07/03/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 122 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.7% SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 1.9% 1.5% 1.3% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 1.5% 1.1% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 2.4% 5.1% 4.1% 3.7% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% Logistic Regression 0.5% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Colin at 07/02/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 121 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 1.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.7% 2.2% SHIPS Consensus 1.1% 2.4% 1.9% 1.5% 0.7% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 2.1% 1.5% 1.1% 0.5% 1.4% 0.1% 0.5% SHIPS-RII 2.7% 5.9% 4.9% 4.2% 2.1% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 1.1% Logistic Regression 0.6% 1.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Colin at 07/02/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 133 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.7% SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 1.8% 1.3% 0.9% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 1.6% 0.9% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% SHIPS-RII 2.3% 4.6% 3.6% 2.6% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% Logistic Regression 0.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Colin at 07/02/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 133 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 1.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 3.1% 1.2% 0.7% 0.4% 2.0% 1.5% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 2.7% 1.0% 0.5% 0.3% 1.5% 1.1% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 1.7% 7.6% 2.7% 1.7% 1.2% 5.4% 4.3% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 0.8% 1.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
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