Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index

 

current  intensity image current  RI diff image

 


Four at 08/21/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 124 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 2.2% SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 3.2% 2.3% 1.8% 1.1% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 2.5% 1.7% 1.3% 0.8% N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 1.9% 6.0% 4.7% 4.6% 3.0% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.1% Logistic Regression 0.9% 3.6% 2.0% 0.8% 0.3% N/A N/A N/A
Bayesian 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Four at 08/20/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 138 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.7% 7.5% 3.1% 1.3% 0.3% 1.6% 2.6% 6.5% SHIPS Consensus 1.3% 4.9% 3.5% 2.8% 1.5% 4.8% 4.1% N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 5.5% 3.3% 2.4% 1.2% 3.9% 3.7% N/A SHIPS-RII 1.9% 5.7% 4.7% 3.4% 1.7% 6.0% 5.2% N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.8% 3.7% 1.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.8% 1.3% 3.2% Logistic Regression 1.9% 8.8% 5.7% 5.1% 2.9% 8.2% 7.1% N/A
Bayesian 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Four at 08/20/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 157 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.4% 6.4% 2.1% 1.0% 0.3% 2.3% 1.9% 8.9% SHIPS Consensus 2.9% 6.8% 4.4% 3.4% 2.2% 5.5% 6.4% 5.5%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.5% 6.6% 3.8% 2.8% 1.6% 4.6% 5.2% 6.3% SHIPS-RII 3.9% 8.5% 6.0% 5.8% 4.0% 7.1% 6.8% 8.9%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.7% 3.2% 1.0% 0.5% 0.1% 1.1% 0.9% 4.4% Logistic Regression 4.2% 10.2% 6.8% 4.5% 2.4% 9.2% 12.3% 7.1%
Bayesian 0.5% 1.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Four at 08/20/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 155 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.4% 1.8% 1.5% 0.9% 0.2% 3.0% 0.6% 6.7% SHIPS Consensus 2.2% 5.9% 4.2% 3.1% 1.8% 3.6% 3.8% 5.6%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.7% 4.8% 3.5% 2.5% 1.3% 3.4% 2.9% 5.9% SHIPS-RII 3.1% 7.2% 5.3% 5.0% 3.5% 6.0% 6.2% 9.1%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.2% 0.9% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 1.5% 0.3% 3.3% Logistic Regression 3.3% 10.1% 7.2% 4.2% 1.7% 4.8% 5.1% 7.5%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Four at 08/20/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 146 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 10.9% 5.4% 5.3% 0.5% 2.7% 2.2% 9.7% SHIPS Consensus 5.0% 14.1% 11.1% 6.9% 3.5% 6.7% 5.9% 6.8%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.8% 13.2% 9.6% 6.5% 2.7% 5.7% 4.9% 7.5% SHIPS-RII 7.1% 16.3% 9.9% 8.8% 6.5% 8.8% 8.6% 11.4%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.6% 5.9% 2.7% 2.6% 0.2% 1.3% 1.1% 4.8% Logistic Regression 7.5% 22.2% 19.9% 11.7% 3.8% 10.7% 8.9% 8.1%
Bayesian 0.5% 3.7% 3.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.9%
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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at 08/19/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 145 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 13.9% 20.1% 17.5% 4.4% 3.7% 12.7% 8.6% 19.9% SHIPS Consensus 12.7% 30.4% 28.6% 18.0% 6.5% 11.3% 10.2% 6.6%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 13.0% 27.8% 25.8% 14.6% 5.8% 11.6% 9.8% 9.9% SHIPS-RII 8.5% 26.1% 15.7% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.4% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 6.9% 10.5% 8.7% 2.2% 1.8% 6.3% 4.3% 9.9% Logistic Regression 27.0% 55.9% 55.7% 42.5% 18.1% 32.8% 21.2% 18.0%
Bayesian 2.8% 9.2% 14.3% 1.5% 1.4% 1.2% 0.1% 1.9%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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