Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index

 

current Five intensity image current Five RI diff image

 


Danielle at 09/08/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 29 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Danielle at 09/08/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 46 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Danielle at 09/08/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 59 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Danielle at 09/07/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 71 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Danielle at 09/07/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 82 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Danielle at 09/07/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 89 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.5% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Danielle at 09/07/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 93 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.1% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Danielle at 09/06/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 96 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.1% 1.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Danielle at 09/06/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 103 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.8% 1.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Danielle at 09/06/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 109 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 1.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.6% 1.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Danielle at 09/06/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 115 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.7% 1.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Danielle at 09/05/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 118 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 0.8% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.1% 1.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Danielle at 09/05/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 122 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.1% 2.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Danielle at 09/05/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 126 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.6% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 1.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.2% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.3% 2.4% 1.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.4% 3.4% 1.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0%
Bayesian 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Danielle at 09/05/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 125 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.3% 1.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.6% 1.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 1.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.1% 1.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.2% 4.0% 2.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0%
Bayesian 2.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Danielle at 09/04/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 129 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 4.1% 2.3% 1.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 8.4% 2.5% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 7.3% 2.4% 1.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 11.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 3.5% 4.1% 2.9% 0.6% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% Logistic Regression 4.6% 7.1% 4.5% 0.9% 0.2% 0.9% 0.7% 0.0%
Bayesian 9.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 3.0% 6.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Danielle at 09/04/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 132 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.6% 1.6% 1.3% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 7.0% 7.1% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.6% 5.7% 1.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 9.5% 14.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.8% 3.3% 2.6% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 4.2% 6.9% 4.4% 0.9% 0.2% 1.2% 0.8% 0.0%
Bayesian 7.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 5.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Danielle at 09/04/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 132 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 3.7% 3.2% 4.7% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 5.9% 9.0% 6.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.3% 7.5% 5.9% 0.9% 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 9.5% 15.7% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.8% 5.1% 4.8% 1.6% 0.0% 1.0% 1.5% 0.0% Logistic Regression 4.7% 10.9% 8.2% 2.2% 0.5% 1.9% 1.2% 0.1%
Bayesian 3.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 7.0% 5.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 3.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Danielle at 09/04/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 129 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.4% 2.3% 1.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 4.3% 8.2% 5.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.3% 6.7% 4.7% 0.5% 0.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 7.2% 15.0% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.7% 3.6% 2.4% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 3.3% 9.4% 6.8% 1.5% 0.3% 1.6% 1.3% 0.1%
Bayesian 2.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 3.0% 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Danielle at 09/03/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 128 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.2% 2.8% 1.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.9% 8.6% 6.0% 0.9% 0.2% 1.0% 0.7% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.1% 7.1% 4.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.7% 0.5% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 6.0% 14.8% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.1% 3.9% 2.7% 1.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 3.5% 10.8% 7.8% 2.5% 0.7% 2.9% 2.1% 0.3%
Bayesian 2.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 5.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Danielle at 09/03/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 130 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.8% 2.6% 2.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 2.3% 6.3% 4.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.7% 0.7% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.9% 5.3% 3.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 4.8% 13.0% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.9% 4.3% 3.0% 1.2% 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% 0.5% Logistic Regression 1.5% 5.9% 3.7% 1.4% 0.5% 2.2% 2.0% 0.3%
Bayesian 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 6.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Danielle at 09/03/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 127 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 1.9% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 2.8% 6.4% 4.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.1% 5.3% 3.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 5.7% 12.7% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.6% 2.9% 2.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.3% 6.5% 4.7% 1.4% 0.4% 1.6% 1.3% 0.3%
Bayesian 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 4.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Danielle at 09/02/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 125 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.5% 2.9% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 4.4% 7.7% 5.4% 0.8% 0.2% 1.4% 0.8% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.4% 6.5% 4.4% 0.6% 0.1% 1.0% 0.6% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 6.4% 13.9% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.7% 5.9% 3.8% 1.6% 0.5% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 3.6% 8.8% 6.2% 2.1% 0.6% 4.1% 2.5% 0.4%
Bayesian 3.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 9.0% 6.0% 3.0% 1.0% 2.0% 4.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Danielle at 09/02/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 121 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 4.3% 2.8% 0.6% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 5.8% 10.4% 7.1% 1.1% 0.4% 2.4% 1.2% 0.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.3% 8.8% 6.0% 0.9% 0.2% 1.8% 0.8% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 8.8% 15.0% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.6% 5.1% 3.4% 1.3% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% Logistic Regression 5.4% 15.8% 11.1% 3.1% 1.1% 7.2% 3.5% 0.6%
Bayesian 3.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 3.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Danielle at 09/02/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 128 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 6.5% 11.6% 7.5% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 6.3% 9.2% 6.1% 0.6% 0.1% 1.3% 1.1% 0.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 6.3% 9.7% 6.4% 0.8% 0.1% 0.9% 0.8% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 11.2% 17.4% 11.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 5.2% 14.3% 9.2% 4.2% 0.5% 2.0% 1.6% 0.1% Logistic Regression 4.4% 9.7% 6.9% 1.6% 0.4% 3.9% 3.3% 0.6%
Bayesian 3.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 4.0% 17.0% 11.0% 7.0% 1.0% 4.0% 3.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Danielle at 09/02/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 83 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 6.7% 10.7% 13.0% 1.8% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 13.2% 20.5% 16.3% 3.2% 0.9% 6.1% 2.6% 0.9%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 11.5% 18.0% 15.5% 2.9% 0.7% 4.6% 2.0% 0.7% SHIPS-RII 17.6% 26.8% 20.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 5.3% 10.3% 8.5% 2.4% 0.2% 1.6% 0.5% 0.6% Logistic Regression 12.1% 33.4% 27.8% 9.1% 2.7% 18.3% 7.9% 2.7%
Bayesian 9.7% 1.1% 0.4% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 4.0% 10.0% 4.0% 3.0% 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Danielle at 09/01/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 103 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 14.1% 16.7% 20.0% 3.6% 0.4% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% SHIPS Consensus 11.3% 19.2% 15.1% 4.0% 1.2% 11.3% 4.2% 1.4%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 12.0% 18.6% 16.3% 3.9% 1.0% 8.6% 3.2% 1.1% SHIPS-RII 15.5% 21.7% 15.8% 0.0% 0.0% 11.2% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 9.5% 17.3% 13.5% 4.8% 0.2% 1.8% 1.1% 0.6% Logistic Regression 11.0% 34.8% 29.1% 11.3% 3.6% 22.8% 12.7% 4.3%
Bayesian 7.5% 1.2% 0.4% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 5.0% 18.0% 7.0% 6.0% 0.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Five at 09/01/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 115 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 4.6% 10.6% 9.4% 3.2% 0.2% 0.7% 0.5% 0.6% SHIPS Consensus 3.2% 8.9% 5.8% 1.1% 0.4% 6.4% 2.9% 2.4%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.5% 9.3% 6.6% 1.6% 0.3% 4.9% 2.3% 1.9% SHIPS-RII 4.2% 9.7% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 3.8% 26.3% 12.2% 3.6% 1.1% 5.3% 3.7% 4.3% Logistic Regression 4.5% 16.7% 10.2% 3.2% 1.3% 11.7% 8.7% 7.3%
Bayesian 1.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 3.0% 42.0% 15.0% 4.0% 2.0% 10.0% 7.0% 8.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Five at 09/01/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 118 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.6% 5.5% 5.7% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% SHIPS Consensus 2.2% 5.3% 3.5% 0.6% 0.2% 3.6% 5.1% 1.9%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.8% 5.3% 4.0% 0.8% 0.1% 2.7% 3.9% 1.5% SHIPS-RII 2.5% 5.8% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% 5.9% 7.4% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.3% 17.2% 10.8% 2.8% 0.5% 2.0% 1.6% 3.7% Logistic Regression 3.2% 9.8% 5.3% 1.8% 0.6% 4.9% 8.1% 5.6%
Bayesian 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 29.0% 16.0% 4.0% 1.0% 4.0% 3.0% 7.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------