Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index

 

current Earl intensity image current Earl RI diff image

 


Earl at 09/10/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 51 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Earl at 09/10/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 73 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Earl at 09/10/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 101 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Earl at 09/10/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 114 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Earl at 09/09/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 124 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 5.2% 3.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.3% 2.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 6.8% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 3.3% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 4.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 6.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Earl at 09/09/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 142 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 4.1% 3.4% 2.6% 2.5% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.2% 2.6% 1.9% 1.8% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 6.3% 9.5% 7.1% 6.9% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 5.4% 2.7% 2.1% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 3.6% 0.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 10.0% 5.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Earl at 09/09/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 143 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 7.6% 2.2% 1.5% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.9% 4.4% 3.1% 2.7% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.7% 3.8% 2.6% 2.1% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 6.1% 11.4% 8.1% 7.6% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 11.3% 18.6% 14.2% 10.8% 2.0% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 3.5% 1.6% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 15.0% 35.0% 27.0% 21.0% 4.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Earl at 09/09/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 146 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.7% 2.3% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.6% 4.7% 3.2% 2.6% 2.0% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.4% 4.1% 2.8% 2.0% 1.5% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 5.2% 11.4% 8.2% 7.5% 5.9% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 4.8% 5.1% 5.4% 3.7% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.9% 2.8% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 8.0% 8.0% 9.0% 7.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Earl at 09/08/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 149 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 3.1% 3.9% 5.9% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 4.4% 7.5% 5.1% 3.7% 2.4% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.0% 6.6% 5.2% 3.2% 1.8% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 6.2% 13.3% 9.3% 8.5% 6.6% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 7.0% 8.9% 9.9% 4.8% 0.6% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Logistic Regression 5.3% 9.1% 5.8% 2.3% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian 1.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 11.0% 14.0% 14.0% 8.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Earl at 09/08/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 152 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 12.6% 6.6% 13.3% 4.2% 2.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 17.7% 21.8% 16.6% 11.9% 5.4% 4.8% 0.2% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 16.4% 17.9% 15.8% 10.0% 4.7% 3.6% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 13.5% 20.3% 17.3% 12.0% 8.1% 10.4% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 16.8% 12.8% 12.1% 6.1% 2.3% 2.6% 0.5% 0.0% Logistic Regression 21.9% 39.0% 31.0% 17.1% 7.2% 4.0% 0.6% 0.0%
Bayesian 17.8% 6.1% 1.7% 6.7% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 21.0% 19.0% 11.0% 8.0% 2.0% 5.0% 1.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Earl at 09/08/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 151 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 6.6% 7.0% 14.6% 2.3% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 15.5% 24.5% 18.5% 12.6% 6.0% 7.7% 0.9% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 13.2% 20.0% 17.5% 9.9% 4.8% 5.8% 0.7% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 17.2% 21.2% 17.9% 13.1% 8.1% 10.9% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 15.3% 23.5% 24.8% 15.6% 2.8% 3.2% 2.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 16.7% 43.1% 34.6% 20.2% 8.9% 11.7% 2.7% 0.0%
Bayesian 12.5% 9.1% 2.9% 4.4% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 24.0% 40.0% 35.0% 29.0% 4.0% 6.0% 4.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Earl at 09/08/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 149 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS Consensus 7.8% 16.9% 11.1% 7.1% 4.3% 7.3% 5.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 10.6% 17.0% 11.1% 10.1% 7.8% 11.0% 10.4% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 9.7% 29.5% 21.0% 10.1% 4.9% 10.6% 4.9% 0.1%
Bayesian 3.0% 4.3% 1.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 19.0% 33.0% 27.0% 20.0% 3.0% 4.0% 3.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Earl at 09/07/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 150 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 18.8% 15.4% 15.6% 7.5% 3.7% 0.9% 0.5% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 13.1% 21.5% 15.6% 11.6% 6.1% 8.9% 6.7% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 14.5% 20.0% 15.5% 10.5% 5.4% 6.9% 5.1% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 16.9% 23.0% 18.4% 16.2% 10.4% 11.9% 11.2% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 21.9% 49.2% 44.3% 31.7% 14.3% 16.9% 12.2% 1.0% Logistic Regression 16.1% 32.3% 25.4% 15.8% 7.1% 14.3% 8.7% 0.1%
Bayesian 6.4% 9.3% 2.9% 2.7% 0.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
DTOPS 25.0% 83.0% 73.0% 56.0% 25.0% 33.0% 24.0% 2.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Earl at 09/07/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 151 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 14.8% 14.0% 12.1% 4.0% 1.9% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 9.5% 13.6% 8.9% 6.9% 3.9% 7.5% 6.0% 0.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 10.8% 13.7% 9.7% 6.2% 3.4% 6.0% 4.6% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 13.6% 16.1% 10.4% 9.8% 7.5% 10.4% 10.2% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 14.9% 29.5% 25.0% 18.5% 4.4% 4.7% 2.7% 1.0% Logistic Regression 10.8% 19.3% 14.4% 9.4% 3.8% 11.7% 7.8% 0.5%
Bayesian 4.1% 5.4% 2.0% 1.6% 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
DTOPS 15.0% 45.0% 38.0% 33.0% 7.0% 8.0% 5.0% 2.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Earl at 09/07/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 149 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 10.8% 18.0% 16.3% 5.6% 2.8% 2.7% 0.4% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 14.9% 16.7% 12.6% 10.3% 5.0% 9.2% 8.0% 3.3%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 13.8% 17.0% 13.5% 9.1% 4.4% 7.6% 6.0% 2.5% SHIPS-RII 21.1% 19.8% 15.7% 10.8% 8.1% 10.9% 10.6% 9.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 13.9% 37.5% 31.1% 25.3% 8.9% 14.3% 19.2% 9.1% Logistic Regression 17.0% 22.9% 18.5% 15.5% 5.6% 16.2% 13.2% 0.8%
Bayesian 6.6% 7.6% 3.5% 4.7% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
DTOPS 17.0% 57.0% 46.0% 45.0% 15.0% 26.0% 38.0% 18.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Earl at 09/07/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 150 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 8.4% 11.7% 14.4% 5.9% 3.4% 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 12.4% 13.6% 9.3% 8.8% 3.9% 8.4% 5.6% 0.8%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 11.4% 13.1% 10.6% 8.1% 3.8% 6.4% 4.3% 0.6% SHIPS-RII 18.7% 16.5% 10.5% 10.1% 7.5% 9.8% 9.3% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 12.2% 22.8% 21.7% 15.4% 4.2% 3.2% 1.7% 3.5% Logistic Regression 10.9% 17.4% 13.6% 12.4% 3.7% 14.7% 7.5% 2.3%
Bayesian 7.7% 7.0% 4.0% 4.0% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 16.0% 34.0% 29.0% 25.0% 5.0% 6.0% 3.0% 7.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Earl at 09/06/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 150 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.5% 5.7% 5.6% 6.9% 0.4% 1.1% 1.2% 1.6% SHIPS Consensus 4.0% 8.4% 5.4% 4.4% 2.6% 5.4% 4.3% 5.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.3% 7.7% 5.4% 5.0% 2.0% 4.2% 3.5% 4.1% SHIPS-RII 6.4% 14.3% 9.1% 8.6% 6.3% 9.0% 8.9% 10.3%
AI-RI and DTOPS 6.2% 17.8% 12.8% 9.9% 2.2% 4.5% 7.1% 20.3% Logistic Regression 4.4% 10.2% 6.8% 4.5% 1.4% 6.9% 4.2% 4.6%
Bayesian 1.2% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 11.0% 30.0% 20.0% 13.0% 4.0% 8.0% 13.0% 39.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Earl at 09/06/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 151 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.4% 3.1% 1.3% 2.4% 0.3% 1.6% 0.8% 2.6% SHIPS Consensus 1.8% 4.0% 3.2% 2.1% 1.1% 3.2% 0.8% 3.7%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 3.7% 2.7% 2.2% 0.8% 2.7% 0.7% 3.4% SHIPS-RII 3.5% 8.3% 7.3% 4.7% 2.8% 7.7% 0.0% 8.5%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.2% 5.5% 2.6% 2.2% 0.6% 2.3% 1.9% 6.3% Logistic Regression 1.7% 3.6% 2.4% 1.7% 0.4% 1.8% 2.3% 2.6%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 4.0% 8.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 3.0% 3.0% 10.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Earl at 09/06/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 150 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.5% 3.3% 1.1% 4.5% 0.4% 1.1% 0.3% 2.9% SHIPS Consensus 4.1% 8.2% 5.5% 4.6% 2.6% 4.6% 1.8% 4.4%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.1% 7.0% 4.3% 4.6% 2.0% 3.7% 1.4% 4.0% SHIPS-RII 6.0% 13.7% 8.6% 8.1% 5.9% 9.1% 0.0% 8.7%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.2% 7.6% 4.5% 4.2% 0.7% 2.5% 1.1% 5.4% Logistic Regression 5.7% 10.7% 7.6% 5.7% 1.8% 4.8% 5.3% 4.7%
Bayesian 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 4.0% 14.0% 8.0% 5.0% 1.0% 8.0% 11.0% 23.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Earl at 09/06/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 150 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 4.8% 9.0% 4.2% 6.3% 1.7% 2.7% 0.3% 2.0% SHIPS Consensus 5.6% 9.0% 6.2% 5.1% 2.7% 4.5% 0.9% 3.3%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.4% 9.0% 5.6% 5.4% 2.4% 4.1% 0.7% 2.9% SHIPS-RII 6.8% 15.2% 9.6% 8.9% 6.5% 9.1% 0.0% 7.7%
AI-RI and DTOPS 5.4% 7.5% 4.1% 4.1% 1.3% 1.8% 0.6% 3.5% Logistic Regression 7.5% 11.0% 8.3% 6.2% 1.6% 4.4% 2.7% 2.1%
Bayesian 2.6% 0.8% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
DTOPS 6.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 5.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Earl at 09/05/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 150 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 3.2% 7.1% 4.5% 4.3% 1.0% 4.0% 1.8% 3.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.9% 6.7% 4.5% 3.7% 2.1% 3.9% 0.8% 0.9%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.0% 6.7% 4.4% 3.8% 1.8% 3.9% 1.0% 1.4% SHIPS-RII 5.1% 11.7% 7.8% 7.4% 5.3% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 4.1% 10.5% 6.7% 5.1% 1.5% 6.5% 6.4% 12.5% Logistic Regression 2.9% 8.1% 5.5% 3.8% 0.9% 3.4% 2.3% 2.7%
Bayesian 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
DTOPS 5.0% 14.0% 9.0% 6.0% 2.0% 9.0% 11.0% 22.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Earl at 09/05/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 150 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.1% 4.9% 2.0% 1.5% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 2.3% SHIPS Consensus 2.5% 4.3% 3.6% 2.4% 1.2% 3.2% 0.6% 0.6%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.3% 4.4% 3.1% 2.1% 1.3% 2.8% 0.8% 1.0% SHIPS-RII 4.5% 9.6% 8.6% 5.3% 3.3% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 7.5% 11.9% 7.0% 4.7% 1.8% 3.3% 1.8% 4.1% Logistic Regression 1.9% 3.2% 2.1% 1.8% 0.4% 1.7% 1.6% 1.7%
Bayesian 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
DTOPS 13.0% 19.0% 12.0% 8.0% 2.0% 5.0% 2.0% 6.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Earl at 09/05/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 145 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.3% 3.4% 1.9% 0.9% 0.7% 2.1% 4.9% 5.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 2.9% 2.4% 1.7% 1.0% 2.8% 2.6% 2.7%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 3.0% 2.2% 1.5% 0.8% 2.5% 3.1% 3.2% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 7.3% 6.3% 4.6% 2.8% 7.1% 6.7% 7.1%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.6% 4.7% 2.9% 1.4% 0.3% 2.5% 3.4% 7.5% Logistic Regression 0.9% 1.3% 0.8% 0.6% 0.1% 1.2% 1.0% 0.9%
Bayesian 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 3.0% 2.0% 10.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Earl at 09/05/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 145 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.7% 2.8% 2.9% 0.8% 0.3% 3.1% 0.9% 6.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 3.5% 3.0% 1.9% 1.2% 2.8% 2.8% 2.6%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 3.3% 2.9% 1.6% 0.9% 2.8% 2.3% 3.5% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 9.3% 8.3% 5.4% 3.5% 7.7% 7.5% 7.4%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.3% 5.4% 3.4% 1.4% 0.1% 3.0% 0.9% 5.5% Logistic Regression 0.7% 1.2% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.6% 0.8% 0.5%
Bayesian 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 8.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 5.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Earl at 09/04/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 145 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.7% 7.7% 4.2% 6.4% 2.7% 10.2% 4.9% 5.9% SHIPS Consensus 1.2% 5.5% 3.7% 3.7% 2.3% 4.1% 3.7% 3.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.6% 6.0% 3.8% 4.3% 2.3% 5.6% 4.0% 3.7% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 11.7% 8.0% 7.9% 5.9% 8.7% 8.3% 7.7%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.8% 9.3% 5.6% 4.7% 1.8% 6.6% 3.4% 6.9% Logistic Regression 2.3% 4.7% 3.0% 3.1% 0.9% 3.6% 2.8% 1.4%
Bayesian 1.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 3.0% 11.0% 7.0% 3.0% 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% 8.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Earl at 09/04/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 147 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 7.2% 13.0% 11.7% 8.5% 5.0% 13.5% 11.7% 8.9% SHIPS Consensus 3.2% 6.7% 4.4% 4.4% 2.7% 5.5% 4.4% 3.9%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.1% 8.3% 6.2% 5.4% 3.2% 7.5% 6.1% 5.1% SHIPS-RII 4.9% 12.4% 8.4% 8.2% 6.1% 9.5% 9.4% 9.4%
AI-RI and DTOPS 5.1% 13.0% 9.8% 5.2% 3.0% 9.7% 7.3% 7.4% Logistic Regression 3.1% 7.6% 4.8% 5.0% 1.9% 7.1% 3.6% 2.3%
Bayesian 1.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 3.0% 13.0% 8.0% 2.0% 1.0% 6.0% 3.0% 6.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Earl at 09/04/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 147 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.9% 10.0% 5.8% 3.9% 0.9% 5.8% 11.7% 12.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 4.0% 3.2% 2.2% 1.3% 3.5% 3.8% 3.8%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.2% 5.4% 3.8% 2.6% 1.2% 4.1% 5.7% 5.8% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 9.1% 8.1% 5.3% 3.5% 8.1% 8.5% 9.7%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.9% 6.0% 3.4% 1.9% 0.4% 2.9% 5.8% 8.0% Logistic Regression 1.3% 2.7% 1.4% 1.3% 0.5% 2.5% 2.8% 1.6%
Bayesian 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Earl at 09/04/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 146 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.6% 5.9% 7.8% 2.5% 0.5% 7.1% 11.2% 15.9% SHIPS Consensus 3.2% 6.2% 3.7% 3.5% 2.2% 4.5% 4.6% 4.9%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.8% 6.1% 4.7% 3.2% 1.7% 5.1% 6.2% 7.6% SHIPS-RII 5.2% 12.5% 8.3% 8.0% 5.8% 8.9% 9.4% 10.8%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.3% 3.9% 4.4% 1.7% 0.2% 3.5% 5.6% 8.9% Logistic Regression 2.2% 5.3% 2.7% 2.4% 0.8% 4.4% 4.4% 3.7%
Bayesian 2.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
DTOPS 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Earl at 09/03/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 147 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.7% 3.4% 2.2% 1.3% 1.4% 2.1% 5.4% 10.4% SHIPS Consensus 4.6% 8.0% 4.8% 5.0% 2.9% 6.9% 5.4% 5.5%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.7% 5.8% 3.5% 3.5% 2.2% 5.1% 5.0% 6.5% SHIPS-RII 5.3% 12.8% 8.4% 8.0% 5.8% 9.1% 9.8% 10.7%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.8% 2.2% 1.6% 0.6% 0.7% 1.0% 2.7% 5.7% Logistic Regression 4.1% 9.8% 5.5% 7.0% 2.9% 11.4% 6.3% 5.7%
Bayesian 4.4% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%
DTOPS 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Earl at 09/03/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 149 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.7% 2.6% 1.2% 1.0% 0.6% 2.1% 4.5% 10.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 3.9% 2.6% 2.4% 1.6% 3.4% 3.8% 5.4%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 3.5% 2.2% 2.0% 1.3% 3.0% 4.0% 6.5% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 8.8% 6.4% 6.3% 4.6% 8.1% 8.8% 12.5%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.3% 1.8% 1.1% 0.5% 0.3% 1.0% 2.2% 6.0% Logistic Regression 0.9% 2.5% 1.2% 0.9% 0.3% 2.1% 2.7% 3.6%
Bayesian 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Earl at 09/03/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 146 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 3.2% 6.3% 5.7% 0.7% 0.6% 4.8% 6.2% 16.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.9% 4.9% 2.9% 2.6% 1.7% 3.9% 4.7% 6.7%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.2% 5.2% 3.5% 2.1% 1.4% 4.1% 5.1% 9.0% SHIPS-RII 3.1% 9.7% 6.8% 6.5% 4.6% 8.0% 8.8% 12.9%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.1% 3.6% 3.3% 0.3% 0.3% 2.4% 3.1% 8.5% Logistic Regression 1.4% 3.9% 1.7% 1.2% 0.4% 3.6% 5.4% 7.2%
Bayesian 1.2% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1%
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Earl at 09/03/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 145 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 4.7% 11.6% 8.8% 3.9% 3.6% 4.3% 14.1% 19.2% SHIPS Consensus 1.9% 5.4% 3.1% 2.8% 1.8% 4.3% 6.0% 8.6%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.6% 6.9% 4.5% 3.0% 2.2% 4.2% 8.0% 11.2% SHIPS-RII 3.0% 8.7% 6.3% 6.0% 4.3% 7.4% 8.1% 11.3%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.8% 6.3% 4.9% 1.9% 1.8% 2.1% 7.0% 9.6% Logistic Regression 1.9% 5.9% 2.7% 2.3% 1.0% 5.3% 9.9% 14.5%
Bayesian 1.0% 1.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------