Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index

 

current  intensity image current  RI diff image

 


Fiona at 09/24/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 45 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Fiona at 09/24/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 44 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Fiona at 09/24/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 41 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Fiona at 09/24/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 74 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Fiona at 09/23/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 110 kts, MPI = 110 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Fiona at 09/23/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 114 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Fiona at 09/23/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 110 kts, MPI = 128 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.6% 1.5% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Fiona at 09/23/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 139 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.2% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Fiona at 09/22/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 152 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 5.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 3.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 4.1% 1.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 3.0% 6.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Fiona at 09/22/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 110 kts, MPI = 158 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.3% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.3% 3.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.2% 2.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 3.4% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.1% 2.3% 1.7% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.2% 2.3% 1.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 4.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Fiona at 09/22/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 158 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 6.8% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.9% 3.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.9% 2.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 4.5% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 3.9% 4.9% 4.2% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.2% 1.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 2.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 9.0% 8.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Fiona at 09/22/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 159 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 1.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.4% 4.1% 3.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.5% 3.4% 2.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 4.4% 8.5% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.6% 3.2% 2.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 3.5% 3.6% 2.0% 1.4% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 2.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 5.0% 5.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Fiona at 09/21/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 160 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.0% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 4.0% 5.2% 3.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.1% 4.1% 2.7% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 4.9% 9.4% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.0% 5.6% 5.5% 1.9% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 4.0% 5.5% 2.7% 1.8% 0.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian 3.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 23.0% 20.0% 10.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Fiona at 09/21/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 162 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.6% 1.8% 0.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 4.2% 4.4% 2.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.3% 3.7% 2.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 5.5% 9.0% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 2.6% 2.9% 1.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Bayesian 4.6% 1.4% 0.6% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Fiona at 09/21/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 162 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 4.4% 6.2% 12.3% 1.5% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 12.1% 9.7% 5.6% 3.8% 1.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 9.1% 8.1% 6.9% 3.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 11.7% 14.0% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 6.2% 6.1% 9.1% 1.7% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 7.3% 7.9% 3.9% 1.7% 0.6% 0.8% 0.7% 0.0%
Bayesian 17.2% 7.1% 3.5% 9.6% 4.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Fiona at 09/21/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 110 kts, MPI = 160 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 12.4% 10.8% 9.5% 3.7% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 10.7% 9.3% 5.5% 3.0% 1.7% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 11.1% 9.6% 6.4% 3.1% 1.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 12.0% 14.7% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 11.7% 11.9% 11.2% 4.8% 0.9% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 7.6% 6.3% 3.1% 1.4% 0.6% 0.6% 1.2% 0.0%
Bayesian 12.6% 6.8% 3.4% 7.5% 4.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 11.0% 13.0% 13.0% 6.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Fiona at 09/20/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 158 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 26.0% 12.0% 6.3% 3.9% 3.7% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 5.4% 6.7% 4.3% 4.3% 2.7% 3.2% 0.3% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 10.5% 8.0% 4.8% 4.2% 2.9% 2.6% 0.2% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 7.2% 13.3% 9.1% 8.6% 6.6% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 18.0% 20.5% 16.1% 9.4% 3.8% 3.0% 0.6% 0.0% Logistic Regression 5.8% 5.5% 3.1% 2.4% 1.0% 1.1% 0.7% 0.0%
Bayesian 3.1% 1.3% 0.8% 1.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 13.0% 52.0% 42.0% 31.0% 11.0% 14.0% 14.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Fiona at 09/20/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 161 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 16.4% 13.8% 22.1% 7.9% 9.0% 2.1% 0.1% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 7.7% 8.6% 5.2% 5.3% 3.1% 4.3% 0.6% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 9.8% 9.8% 9.4% 5.9% 4.5% 3.7% 0.5% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 8.0% 13.2% 9.1% 8.7% 6.6% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 15.7% 14.4% 18.0% 7.4% 5.5% 2.5% 0.5% 0.0% Logistic Regression 6.7% 9.1% 5.1% 4.9% 2.5% 3.8% 1.9% 0.2%
Bayesian 8.5% 3.5% 1.5% 2.3% 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
DTOPS 15.0% 15.0% 14.0% 7.0% 2.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Fiona at 09/20/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 160 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 7.3% 18.2% 18.2% 5.4% 4.7% 2.1% 0.4% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 12.0% 14.4% 9.2% 9.0% 4.5% 5.8% 0.9% 0.3%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 10.7% 15.3% 11.4% 8.0% 4.5% 4.9% 0.8% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 14.9% 17.2% 11.1% 10.1% 7.6% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 19.6% 36.1% 32.6% 20.2% 7.3% 6.0% 10.7% 0.1% Logistic Regression 8.6% 19.7% 12.6% 12.3% 5.4% 7.1% 2.6% 0.8%
Bayesian 12.4% 6.3% 3.9% 4.5% 0.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
DTOPS 32.0% 54.0% 47.0% 35.0% 10.0% 10.0% 21.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Fiona at 09/20/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 158 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 22.8% 23.8% 45.9% 14.0% 6.1% 7.2% 0.9% 0.3% SHIPS Consensus 14.6% 18.7% 13.6% 9.7% 3.9% 4.8% 4.3% 0.3%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 16.6% 19.9% 21.7% 10.7% 4.4% 5.3% 3.4% 0.3% SHIPS-RII 18.9% 26.6% 21.6% 15.2% 8.2% 10.4% 9.6% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 28.4% 26.9% 37.9% 19.5% 4.5% 5.6% 1.9% 0.1% Logistic Regression 9.0% 19.7% 12.5% 8.0% 2.1% 3.3% 3.1% 1.0%
Bayesian 15.9% 9.7% 6.9% 5.9% 1.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
DTOPS 34.0% 30.0% 30.0% 25.0% 3.0% 4.0% 3.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Fiona at 09/19/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 158 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 30.4% 42.4% 48.6% 23.6% 30.9% 14.2% 8.9% 1.6% SHIPS Consensus 10.8% 15.2% 10.2% 9.2% 4.8% 5.9% 4.4% 0.3%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 15.7% 21.9% 19.7% 12.8% 11.3% 7.9% 5.5% 0.6% SHIPS-RII 15.1% 21.5% 16.1% 13.1% 8.3% 11.0% 10.1% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 28.2% 51.2% 50.8% 26.8% 23.4% 12.6% 6.4% 1.8% Logistic Regression 10.1% 16.9% 10.3% 10.4% 4.7% 5.7% 3.0% 0.8%
Bayesian 7.2% 7.1% 4.1% 4.1% 1.5% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%
DTOPS 25.0% 71.0% 64.0% 35.0% 22.0% 22.0% 22.0% 9.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Fiona at 09/19/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 159 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 15.4% 40.4% 29.2% 25.4% 17.4% 13.7% 4.5% 4.3% SHIPS Consensus 7.8% 12.9% 7.9% 6.8% 4.0% 6.0% 4.4% 3.8%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 9.6% 19.7% 13.2% 11.4% 7.3% 7.9% 4.4% 3.9% SHIPS-RII 15.4% 21.3% 14.7% 12.4% 8.3% 11.2% 10.1% 9.9%
AI-RI and DTOPS 31.7% 57.2% 46.1% 32.2% 16.7% 21.8% 7.2% 5.1% Logistic Regression 6.4% 14.4% 7.9% 7.3% 3.6% 6.5% 3.0% 1.4%
Bayesian 1.5% 3.0% 1.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
DTOPS 48.0% 74.0% 63.0% 39.0% 16.0% 30.0% 10.0% 6.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Fiona at 09/19/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 156 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 32.9% 45.5% 40.8% 14.4% 33.2% 16.1% 4.6% 4.5% SHIPS Consensus 8.2% 14.5% 8.4% 6.5% 4.0% 5.7% 4.7% 0.7%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 14.3% 22.2% 16.5% 8.5% 11.3% 8.3% 4.6% 1.6% SHIPS-RII 15.9% 21.3% 15.2% 12.2% 8.2% 10.8% 10.2% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 19.9% 35.7% 29.9% 10.7% 20.1% 14.0% 10.3% 8.7% Logistic Regression 5.9% 16.0% 7.9% 6.1% 3.2% 5.7% 3.8% 2.2%
Bayesian 2.7% 6.2% 2.1% 1.3% 0.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
DTOPS 7.0% 26.0% 19.0% 7.0% 7.0% 12.0% 16.0% 13.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Fiona at 09/19/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 155 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 14.6% 44.9% 36.2% 22.8% 12.6% 15.4% 5.3% 8.7% SHIPS Consensus 16.8% 29.3% 18.8% 15.2% 9.3% 8.4% 5.9% 4.7%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 16.2% 33.1% 23.1% 17.0% 10.1% 10.1% 5.7% 5.6% SHIPS-RII 27.4% 38.2% 27.9% 21.7% 16.7% 13.6% 11.5% 11.3%
AI-RI and DTOPS 22.3% 44.4% 30.1% 21.4% 9.3% 21.2% 7.6% 7.8% Logistic Regression 14.8% 32.2% 20.4% 18.6% 8.5% 10.7% 5.6% 2.7%
Bayesian 8.3% 17.3% 8.0% 5.2% 2.7% 1.0% 0.5% 0.1%
DTOPS 30.0% 44.0% 24.0% 20.0% 6.0% 27.0% 10.0% 7.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Fiona at 09/18/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 158 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 41.3% 53.1% 53.0% 46.2% 40.0% 17.9% 19.7% 6.9% SHIPS Consensus 29.9% 34.8% 22.1% 20.2% 12.6% 13.5% 8.8% 5.7%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 28.2% 36.9% 27.9% 24.3% 17.7% 13.6% 11.1% 6.1% SHIPS-RII 35.0% 43.6% 30.1% 25.9% 19.3% 17.6% 11.7% 12.5%
AI-RI and DTOPS 32.6% 58.5% 54.5% 48.6% 27.5% 19.4% 11.3% 6.9% Logistic Regression 29.0% 43.1% 28.9% 30.2% 16.4% 22.1% 13.8% 4.7%
Bayesian 25.5% 17.6% 7.4% 4.4% 2.3% 0.9% 0.8% 0.0%
DTOPS 30.0% 39.0% 23.0% 16.0% 6.0% 18.0% 15.0% 19.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Fiona at 09/18/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 161 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 10.7% 36.0% 24.2% 17.9% 19.4% 27.5% 25.7% 21.3% SHIPS Consensus 10.2% 22.2% 12.7% 9.6% 5.6% 10.7% 7.6% 7.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 10.3% 25.6% 15.5% 11.7% 9.0% 14.9% 12.1% 10.6% SHIPS-RII 15.8% 36.9% 26.5% 19.6% 11.7% 18.9% 12.2% 14.6%
AI-RI and DTOPS 14.3% 43.5% 25.6% 19.4% 14.7% 24.7% 17.8% 17.6% Logistic Regression 7.6% 22.4% 9.9% 9.0% 4.9% 12.1% 9.4% 6.4%
Bayesian 7.3% 7.3% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1% 1.2% 1.1% 0.1%
DTOPS 18.0% 51.0% 27.0% 21.0% 10.0% 22.0% 10.0% 14.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Fiona at 09/18/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 160 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 7.9% 25.6% 24.3% 32.5% 20.3% 9.1% 12.2% 16.4% SHIPS Consensus 4.7% 12.0% 5.8% 4.6% 3.1% 6.2% 7.3% 7.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.5% 15.4% 10.4% 11.5% 7.3% 6.9% 8.5% 9.3% SHIPS-RII 7.0% 20.5% 11.1% 9.8% 7.4% 12.3% 13.1% 15.7%
AI-RI and DTOPS 9.4% 20.8% 17.1% 19.7% 11.1% 18.5% 32.1% 23.2% Logistic Regression 4.1% 13.2% 5.6% 3.8% 1.7% 5.8% 7.2% 5.1%
Bayesian 3.1% 2.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 1.5% 0.1%
DTOPS 11.0% 16.0% 10.0% 7.0% 2.0% 28.0% 52.0% 30.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Fiona at 09/18/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 158 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 10.9% 44.6% 33.1% 11.5% 8.4% 17.4% 27.3% 20.1% SHIPS Consensus 6.2% 23.1% 13.6% 8.0% 4.5% 9.7% 12.9% 9.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 7.3% 28.5% 18.5% 8.9% 5.4% 11.6% 16.4% 11.9% SHIPS-RII 9.5% 32.8% 22.7% 13.0% 8.3% 19.2% 27.5% 21.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 9.9% 41.3% 30.0% 12.7% 7.7% 39.7% 47.6% 23.0% Logistic Regression 7.8% 25.3% 14.4% 10.6% 4.6% 8.1% 9.0% 6.2%
Bayesian 1.3% 11.3% 3.8% 0.5% 0.6% 1.8% 2.1% 0.3%
DTOPS 9.0% 38.0% 27.0% 14.0% 7.0% 62.0% 68.0% 26.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Fiona at 09/17/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 156 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 17.4% 29.4% 16.7% 6.7% 7.3% 13.1% 25.9% 20.1% SHIPS Consensus 9.9% 20.6% 15.7% 10.7% 5.0% 7.9% 7.6% 5.4%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 11.7% 22.7% 15.9% 9.7% 5.5% 9.2% 12.2% 9.0% SHIPS-RII 11.7% 32.7% 22.5% 13.8% 8.3% 15.7% 16.2% 13.7%
AI-RI and DTOPS 18.2% 20.2% 11.3% 3.8% 4.1% 7.5% 13.4% 19.5% Logistic Regression 14.9% 25.8% 19.9% 17.4% 5.5% 7.4% 6.1% 2.3%
Bayesian 3.1% 3.2% 4.6% 0.9% 1.1% 0.7% 0.6% 0.0%
DTOPS 19.0% 11.0% 6.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 19.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Fiona at 09/17/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 161 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 29.4% 36.8% 23.5% 15.7% 7.6% 19.7% 31.5% 26.1% SHIPS Consensus 16.6% 37.6% 26.1% 18.7% 12.6% 16.4% 15.1% 9.5%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 19.7% 37.4% 25.4% 17.9% 11.3% 17.2% 19.2% 13.6% SHIPS-RII 14.2% 43.8% 28.8% 20.7% 16.9% 27.8% 28.5% 19.8%
AI-RI and DTOPS 19.2% 44.4% 22.2% 11.3% 6.3% 15.3% 17.2% 18.5% Logistic Regression 29.3% 45.9% 35.7% 32.6% 17.8% 18.7% 15.4% 8.3%
Bayesian 6.2% 23.2% 13.8% 2.9% 3.0% 2.7% 1.4% 0.3%
DTOPS 9.0% 52.0% 21.0% 7.0% 5.0% 11.0% 3.0% 11.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Fiona at 09/17/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 159 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 26.5% 26.0% 22.6% 6.0% 7.8% 32.4% 23.1% 25.4% SHIPS Consensus 12.7% 31.8% 21.8% 16.5% 9.8% 18.0% 14.6% 10.9%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 16.1% 30.3% 22.0% 13.9% 9.2% 21.5% 16.7% 14.5% SHIPS-RII 14.3% 43.3% 28.7% 21.7% 17.2% 29.6% 29.7% 25.8%
AI-RI and DTOPS 17.2% 32.5% 24.8% 9.0% 5.9% 21.2% 13.0% 13.7% Logistic Regression 16.3% 35.8% 27.0% 26.3% 11.7% 20.0% 11.6% 6.3%
Bayesian 7.5% 16.3% 9.7% 1.6% 0.4% 4.3% 2.5% 0.7%
DTOPS 8.0% 39.0% 27.0% 12.0% 4.0% 10.0% 3.0% 2.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Fiona at 09/17/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 156 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.9% 7.1% 5.5% 2.4% 2.2% 3.9% 9.7% 15.5% SHIPS Consensus 2.9% 9.8% 5.8% 4.7% 2.9% 6.4% 6.7% 8.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.2% 7.1% 4.5% 3.0% 2.2% 4.1% 6.5% 9.2% SHIPS-RII 4.8% 15.1% 9.5% 8.6% 6.5% 10.5% 12.4% 16.5%
AI-RI and DTOPS 3.4% 4.5% 3.2% 1.2% 1.1% 1.9% 4.8% 8.2% Logistic Regression 2.5% 13.3% 7.3% 5.4% 2.3% 8.3% 6.0% 7.2%
Bayesian 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 1.8% 0.3%
DTOPS 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Fiona at 09/16/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 156 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.9% 2.3% 1.4% 0.8% 0.4% 1.3% 7.1% 6.5% SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 3.5% 2.3% 2.1% 1.6% 3.1% 4.1% 6.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 3.2% 2.0% 1.7% 1.3% 2.6% 4.8% 6.2% SHIPS-RII 1.9% 9.0% 6.3% 6.1% 4.7% 8.6% 10.0% 15.2%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.9% 1.6% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.6% 3.5% 3.2% Logistic Regression 0.5% 1.4% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.7% 2.4% 3.2%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Fiona at 09/16/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 155 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 2.8% 1.0% 0.6% 0.2% 3.0% 4.9% 7.5% SHIPS Consensus 1.3% 4.5% 2.8% 2.4% 1.8% 3.6% 4.7% 7.4%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 4.0% 2.3% 1.9% 1.4% 3.4% 4.7% 7.4% SHIPS-RII 3.0% 10.8% 7.3% 6.8% 5.2% 9.4% 11.0% 16.6%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 2.4% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 2.0% 2.4% 3.7% Logistic Regression 0.7% 2.2% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 1.4% 3.0% 5.6%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Fiona at 09/16/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 153 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.0% 4.0% 1.3% 0.7% 0.2% 3.9% 7.1% 13.1% SHIPS Consensus 2.0% 5.7% 3.4% 2.9% 2.2% 4.0% 5.0% 7.8%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.7% 5.2% 2.8% 2.3% 1.6% 4.0% 5.5% 9.1% SHIPS-RII 5.1% 14.2% 9.0% 8.4% 6.4% 10.6% 12.3% 17.2%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.0% 3.5% 1.6% 0.8% 0.1% 1.9% 3.5% 6.5% Logistic Regression 0.8% 1.9% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 1.3% 2.8% 6.2%
Bayesian 0.3% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%
DTOPS 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Fiona at 09/16/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 148 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.0% 4.6% 2.3% 0.9% 0.8% 3.4% 5.7% 13.1% SHIPS Consensus 2.2% 5.7% 3.3% 2.9% 2.1% 4.0% 5.5% 8.7%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.8% 5.4% 3.0% 2.4% 1.7% 3.8% 5.5% 9.8% SHIPS-RII 4.8% 13.0% 8.4% 8.0% 6.0% 9.7% 11.3% 14.8%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.5% 4.3% 2.1% 0.9% 0.4% 1.7% 2.8% 6.5% Logistic Regression 1.0% 2.6% 1.1% 0.7% 0.3% 2.1% 5.2% 11.2%
Bayesian 0.6% 1.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2%
DTOPS 2.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Fiona at 09/15/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 146 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 4.0% 6.1% 3.8% 0.7% 0.6% 6.3% 7.7% 9.5% SHIPS Consensus 2.5% 6.1% 3.5% 3.1% 2.2% 4.3% 5.0% 6.9%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.3% 5.2% 3.1% 2.2% 1.6% 4.4% 5.3% 7.6% SHIPS-RII 5.1% 14.4% 9.2% 8.6% 6.4% 10.2% 11.2% 14.1%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.5% 4.0% 2.4% 0.3% 0.3% 3.1% 3.8% 4.7% Logistic Regression 1.0% 2.3% 0.9% 0.6% 0.2% 2.3% 3.4% 6.5%
Bayesian 1.3% 1.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
DTOPS 2.0% 4.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Fiona at 09/15/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 142 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.1% 3.8% 2.4% 0.5% 0.8% 4.9% 6.4% 11.7% SHIPS Consensus 1.2% 3.6% 2.4% 2.2% 1.6% 3.3% 3.7% 5.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.1% 3.5% 2.3% 1.7% 1.3% 3.5% 4.4% 6.6% SHIPS-RII 2.3% 8.8% 6.3% 6.2% 4.5% 8.1% 8.7% 12.5%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.0% 2.9% 1.7% 0.2% 0.4% 2.4% 3.2% 6.3% Logistic Regression 0.7% 1.6% 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 1.6% 2.4% 2.9%
Bayesian 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Fiona at 09/15/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 140 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.6% 3.6% 3.5% 0.6% 0.3% 6.9% 8.4% 23.2% SHIPS Consensus 2.7% 5.6% 3.2% 2.8% 1.9% 4.3% 5.0% 6.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.1% 5.0% 3.2% 2.2% 1.5% 4.9% 5.8% 10.3% SHIPS-RII 4.5% 12.2% 8.1% 7.7% 5.5% 9.2% 9.7% 12.8%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.8% 2.8% 2.2% 0.3% 0.1% 3.4% 4.2% 11.6% Logistic Regression 1.0% 2.4% 1.0% 0.6% 0.2% 3.2% 4.0% 5.2%
Bayesian 2.5% 2.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 1.3% 0.0%
DTOPS 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Seven at 09/15/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 137 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 5.4% 1.6% 0.9% 0.4% 2.5% 8.3% 17.5% SHIPS Consensus 4.3% 6.8% 4.1% 3.5% 2.1% 5.1% 5.8% 6.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 4.0% 2.1% 1.9% 1.1% 3.3% 5.3% 8.3% SHIPS-RII 5.2% 13.3% 8.8% 8.2% 5.7% 9.3% 10.1% 12.7%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 2.7% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 1.2% 4.1% 8.7% Logistic Regression 2.0% 5.6% 2.9% 2.3% 0.6% 5.7% 5.9% 5.4%
Bayesian 5.6% 1.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 1.3% 0.1%
DTOPS 7.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Seven at 09/14/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 137 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 3.6% 20.9% 14.2% 5.5% 1.0% 12.4% 22.4% 30.7% SHIPS Consensus 2.6% 6.3% 4.1% 4.0% 2.0% 6.2% 6.7% 7.6%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.8% 10.0% 6.6% 4.3% 1.7% 7.7% 10.6% 13.3% SHIPS-RII 2.7% 9.0% 6.5% 6.1% 4.2% 7.5% 7.9% 11.5%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.3% 10.9% 7.1% 2.7% 0.5% 6.2% 11.2% 15.3% Logistic Regression 2.7% 9.3% 5.4% 5.8% 1.9% 10.8% 9.0% 11.2%
Bayesian 2.5% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 3.1% 0.1%
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


at 09/14/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 135 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.7% 8.9% 2.1% 1.8% 0.5% 7.1% 12.7% 24.3% SHIPS Consensus 2.0% 4.3% 2.8% 2.4% 1.5% 3.7% 5.6% 10.5%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.7% 5.4% 2.6% 2.2% 1.2% 4.5% 7.4% 13.9% SHIPS-RII 2.7% 8.3% 6.2% 5.9% 4.0% 7.5% 8.2% 12.6%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.8% 4.9% 1.0% 0.9% 0.2% 3.5% 6.3% 12.1% Logistic Regression 1.5% 3.6% 1.9% 1.3% 0.3% 3.2% 7.5% 18.1%
Bayesian 1.9% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 1.3% 0.7%
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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