Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index

 

current  intensity image current  RI diff image

 


Eight at 09/26/22 00 UTC.    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Bayesian N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gaston at 09/25/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 86 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% SHIPS Consensus 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gaston at 09/25/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 87 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gaston at 09/25/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 90 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gaston at 09/25/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 92 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gaston at 09/24/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 88 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 1.3% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 1.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 2.3% 3.4% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gaston at 09/24/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 86 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 1.9% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 1.4% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 3.6% 5.1% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Eight at 09/24/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 82 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Bayesian N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gaston at 09/24/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 76 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 2.8% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 2.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 2.1% 7.8% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gaston at 09/23/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 72 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 1.6% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.2% 3.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.6% 2.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 4.7% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.5% 1.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gaston at 09/23/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 72 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 2.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 1.1% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 3.0% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.1% 1.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gaston at 09/23/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 71 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.2% 3.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 2.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 2.7% 8.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.8% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gaston at 09/23/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 72 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.1% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 3.9% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gaston at 09/22/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 72 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.7% 2.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.3% 1.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 4.1% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.9% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gaston at 09/22/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 77 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.7% 2.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.3% 1.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 4.1% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 1.4% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.0% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gaston at 09/22/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 81 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.7% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gaston at 09/22/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 88 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 1.7% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.1% 1.4% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 3.7% 4.5% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.7% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gaston at 09/21/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 90 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.4% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.7% 2.4% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.3% 2.1% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 4.0% 6.1% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.0% 1.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gaston at 09/21/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 94 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.5% 3.5% 2.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.9% 2.8% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 5.1% 8.5% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 1.9% 2.1% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gaston at 09/21/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 97 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.9% 2.3% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 4.5% 5.4% 3.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.6% 4.5% 3.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 8.6% 12.7% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.4% 2.6% 1.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 3.1% 3.6% 2.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
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Gaston at 09/21/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 113 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.0% 3.2% 2.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 4.2% 5.7% 3.8% 2.6% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.3% 5.0% 3.4% 2.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 6.2% 11.6% 7.9% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.5% 4.1% 2.7% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 3.9% 5.4% 3.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 4.0% 5.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Eight at 09/20/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 127 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.2% 4.5% 3.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 4.1% 5.7% 3.6% 2.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.3% 5.3% 3.4% 1.6% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 4.3% 9.1% 6.6% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.6% 4.2% 2.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 5.5% 7.9% 4.3% 0.7% 0.2% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0%
Bayesian 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Eight at 09/20/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 140 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.7% 3.4% 3.1% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.0% 3.9% 2.4% 1.6% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.7% 3.7% 2.5% 1.4% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 2.2% 5.7% 4.8% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.8% 6.7% 4.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.6% 6.0% 2.4% 0.5% 0.1% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1%
Bayesian 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 10.0% 5.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------