Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index     Franklin at 09/01/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 85 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Franklin at 09/01/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 83 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Franklin at 09/01/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 86 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 1.9% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 1.4% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 2.3% 5.6% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 3.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 7.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Franklin at 09/01/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 83 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 1.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 1.5% 3.3% 2.3% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 0.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Franklin at 08/31/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 91 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.4% 1.0% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.9% 3.0% 2.1% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 2.4% 1.6% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 4.1% 8.3% 6.0% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.7% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.2% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Franklin at 08/31/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 87 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.9% 2.0% 0.3% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.6% 3.8% 2.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.2% 3.3% 2.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 5.2% 10.2% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.4% 1.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.2% 1.2% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Franklin at 08/31/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 82 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.8% 1.8% 0.3% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.2% 3.6% 2.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.8% 3.1% 2.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 4.9% 9.9% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.4% 0.9% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.4% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Franklin at 08/31/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 96 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.0% 1.4% 0.6% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.6% 3.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.7% 3.0% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 5.3% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.5% 0.7% 0.3% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.2% 1.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Franklin at 08/30/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 96 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 5.0% 1.4% 0.5% 1.7% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.5% 3.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.1% 2.8% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 5.3% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 3.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.7% 0.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Franklin at 08/30/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 107 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.8% 1.7% 0.4% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.4% 0.8% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.2% 0.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Franklin at 08/30/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 109 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.5% 1.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.8% 2.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.7% 2.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 4.4% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.9% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Franklin at 08/30/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 117 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.9% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.2% 0.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Franklin at 08/29/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 110 kts, MPI = 126 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.2% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.4% 1.4% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Franklin at 08/29/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 133 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.7% 1.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Franklin at 08/29/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 120 kts, MPI = 137 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 6.6% 1.0% 1.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.3% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 3.3% 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.6% 1.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Franklin at 08/29/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 130 kts, MPI = 141 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.1% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.3% 2.5% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.4% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Franklin at 08/28/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 125 kts, MPI = 147 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 10.5% 1.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 9.6% 3.8% 2.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.7% 0.9% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 9.8% 3.3% 1.7% 0.8% 0.1% 0.5% 0.6% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 7.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 11.7% 9.7% 6.1% 2.5% 0.7% 2.1% 2.6% 0.0% Bayesian 17.1% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Franklin at 08/28/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 125 kts, MPI = 153 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 19.3% 1.7% 1.9% 2.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 21.2% 7.1% 5.2% 2.0% 0.4% 1.6% 1.6% 0.1% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 20.1% 13.4% 3.4% 1.9% 0.3% 0.9% 1.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 40.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 16.6% 3.8% 3.9% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 20.7% 21.1% 15.5% 5.9% 1.3% 4.9% 4.7% 0.3% Bayesian 2.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 12.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Franklin at 08/28/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 153 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 25.8% 17.8% 7.9% 7.1% 5.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 18.2% 21.8% 13.2% 9.2% 4.4% 2.1% 1.7% 0.3% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 20.0% 20.8% 11.8% 8.7% 4.6% 1.7% 1.3% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 21.8% 27.3% 21.0% 15.5% 10.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 23.9% 15.9% 9.4% 6.0% 2.6% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% Logistic Regression 11.2% 16.1% 10.4% 4.1% 1.7% 5.8% 5.2% 0.8% Bayesian 21.5% 22.1% 8.0% 8.1% 1.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 22.0% 14.0% 11.0% 5.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Franklin at 08/28/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 152 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 9.1% 16.5% 10.5% 5.8% 1.6% 1.2% 0.8% 0.4% SHIPS Consensus 6.1% 14.4% 8.5% 5.3% 3.8% 6.5% 6.5% 0.3% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 6.7% 14.9% 8.9% 5.4% 3.1% 5.1% 5.0% 0.3% SHIPS-RII 11.4% 22.4% 14.8% 12.2% 9.5% 14.2% 15.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 11.5% 41.7% 30.7% 21.4% 4.8% 14.6% 3.4% 0.2% Logistic Regression 5.3% 14.2% 9.1% 3.0% 1.6% 5.0% 4.5% 1.0% Bayesian 1.4% 6.7% 1.5% 0.8% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 14.0% 67.0% 51.0% 37.0% 8.0% 28.0% 6.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Franklin at 08/27/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 155 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 38.1% 24.9% 36.3% 12.6% 6.9% 3.0% 0.5% 0.3% SHIPS Consensus 14.3% 35.3% 23.3% 15.2% 9.0% 14.2% 10.2% 1.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 23.2% 37.6% 30.6% 16.8% 8.7% 11.9% 7.9% 0.8% SHIPS-RII 21.7% 39.1% 28.7% 22.6% 18.8% 24.6% 21.8% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 31.5% 30.4% 27.1% 11.8% 5.4% 20.0% 13.2% 0.1% Logistic Regression 13.1% 31.8% 24.9% 12.1% 6.6% 15.3% 8.6% 3.0% Bayesian 7.9% 35.0% 16.2% 11.0% 1.5% 2.8% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS 20.0% 37.0% 18.0% 11.0% 5.0% 48.0% 33.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Franklin at 08/27/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 154 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 30.7% 29.3% 41.6% 26.9% 21.2% 6.8% 4.1% 0.7% SHIPS Consensus 12.5% 33.1% 22.3% 13.9% 8.4% 16.5% 10.6% 1.9% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 17.0% 32.1% 27.1% 17.1% 11.6% 14.0% 8.9% 1.5% SHIPS-RII 20.2% 37.7% 27.2% 21.6% 15.8% 24.0% 21.4% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 25.8% 51.6% 46.3% 31.9% 19.1% 40.4% 19.5% 0.8% Logistic Regression 12.2% 34.4% 27.7% 14.5% 8.5% 21.1% 9.8% 5.5% Bayesian 5.2% 27.2% 11.9% 5.6% 0.9% 4.3% 0.5% 0.0% DTOPS 21.0% 74.0% 51.0% 37.0% 17.0% 74.0% 35.0% 1.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Franklin at 08/27/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 156 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.1% 14.7% 15.7% 3.1% 2.0% 6.0% 0.7% 1.4% SHIPS Consensus 5.5% 19.1% 12.8% 7.3% 5.0% 10.0% 8.8% 8.8% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.4% 17.9% 13.5% 6.2% 4.2% 9.0% 6.7% 6.9% SHIPS-RII 9.5% 28.5% 18.6% 15.1% 11.6% 17.6% 19.8% 21.3% AI-RI and DTOPS 11.0% 46.8% 41.8% 26.5% 8.0% 23.5% 25.3% 2.7% Logistic Regression 5.3% 24.0% 17.6% 6.3% 3.2% 11.0% 6.5% 5.0% Bayesian 1.7% 4.7% 2.1% 0.4% 0.1% 1.4% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS 21.0% 79.0% 68.0% 50.0% 14.0% 41.0% 50.0% 4.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Franklin at 08/27/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 155 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 7.4% 26.1% 18.5% 3.5% 7.6% 5.4% 1.3% 1.7% SHIPS Consensus 7.2% 21.8% 14.6% 9.1% 5.3% 10.1% 9.7% 8.9% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 7.2% 22.8% 15.5% 7.7% 5.8% 8.9% 7.6% 7.1% SHIPS-RII 13.4% 34.0% 22.4% 17.7% 11.6% 17.3% 19.9% 20.2% AI-RI and DTOPS 19.2% 47.5% 30.7% 19.7% 17.8% 42.2% 38.6% 4.3% Logistic Regression 5.7% 26.8% 19.2% 9.0% 4.0% 12.1% 8.7% 6.4% Bayesian 2.5% 4.6% 2.2% 0.7% 0.3% 1.0% 0.5% 0.1% DTOPS 31.0% 69.0% 43.0% 36.0% 28.0% 79.0% 76.0% 7.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Franklin at 08/26/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 154 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 9.7% 48.4% 34.5% 15.0% 13.3% 5.1% 4.4% 1.7% SHIPS Consensus 15.6% 31.5% 23.4% 15.7% 7.9% 15.5% 11.6% 10.6% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 14.1% 35.7% 26.2% 15.5% 9.2% 12.8% 9.8% 8.3% SHIPS-RII 21.8% 42.9% 32.5% 23.5% 13.9% 22.7% 22.8% 23.3% AI-RI and DTOPS 20.3% 63.2% 46.2% 30.5% 24.1% 52.0% 45.2% 5.3% Logistic Regression 12.5% 36.3% 28.9% 18.9% 7.5% 20.3% 11.5% 8.4% Bayesian 12.5% 15.4% 8.9% 4.8% 2.3% 3.4% 0.6% 0.0% DTOPS 31.0% 78.0% 58.0% 46.0% 35.0% 99.0% 86.0% 9.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Franklin at 08/26/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 160 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 11.1% 29.7% 28.6% 3.6% 2.0% 14.0% 1.7% 5.4% SHIPS Consensus 8.5% 20.3% 14.0% 9.1% 5.8% 10.7% 11.1% 11.5% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 9.1% 22.6% 17.6% 7.7% 4.8% 11.5% 8.7% 9.9% SHIPS-RII 17.2% 42.6% 30.7% 23.3% 16.3% 26.0% 26.2% 30.1% AI-RI and DTOPS 11.5% 29.3% 19.8% 6.3% 3.0% 50.5% 47.3% 16.7% Logistic Regression 4.9% 14.4% 9.4% 3.2% 0.9% 5.1% 5.3% 4.3% Bayesian 3.3% 4.0% 1.8% 0.8% 0.4% 1.0% 1.7% 0.1% DTOPS 12.0% 29.0% 11.0% 9.0% 4.0% 87.0% 93.0% 28.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Franklin at 08/26/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 156 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.3% 11.0% 8.3% 1.9% 1.9% 7.7% 2.9% 12.2% SHIPS Consensus 7.7% 22.8% 13.4% 7.9% 4.5% 14.5% 17.6% 15.5% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 6.0% 19.8% 12.1% 6.3% 3.8% 12.8% 13.9% 14.7% SHIPS-RII 7.8% 39.9% 25.6% 18.3% 11.5% 27.0% 28.8% 35.3% AI-RI and DTOPS 3.6% 8.5% 5.1% 1.9% 1.4% 4.3% 11.4% 26.1% Logistic Regression 10.0% 19.9% 11.8% 4.1% 1.6% 12.7% 15.4% 10.3% Bayesian 5.1% 8.6% 2.7% 1.3% 0.4% 3.9% 8.6% 1.0% DTOPS 6.0% 6.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 20.0% 40.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Franklin at 08/26/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 155 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.9% 7.9% 3.5% 1.9% 1.7% 1.0% 4.3% 10.0% SHIPS Consensus 4.5% 11.1% 6.7% 4.5% 2.8% 6.9% 10.2% 11.8% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.6% 10.2% 5.8% 3.8% 2.5% 5.4% 8.7% 11.3% SHIPS-RII 4.7% 17.0% 11.5% 9.1% 6.7% 11.5% 15.5% 26.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.9% 6.9% 3.2% 1.9% 0.8% 1.0% 3.1% 9.5% Logistic Regression 6.7% 12.7% 6.8% 4.0% 1.6% 8.2% 10.7% 8.7% Bayesian 2.2% 3.6% 1.6% 0.4% 0.2% 1.0% 4.4% 0.7% DTOPS 3.0% 6.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 9.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Franklin at 08/25/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 155 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.3% 7.5% 2.4% 1.4% 0.2% 1.3% 4.0% 6.9% SHIPS Consensus 1.7% 6.4% 4.0% 2.9% 2.0% 3.9% 5.1% 9.7% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.6% 6.6% 3.5% 2.4% 1.5% 3.2% 4.8% 9.0% SHIPS-RII 2.9% 15.2% 10.1% 8.0% 5.9% 10.3% 13.4% 26.2% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.1% 5.2% 1.7% 1.2% 0.1% 1.1% 2.5% 6.4% Logistic Regression 2.0% 3.9% 1.8% 0.5% 0.2% 1.3% 1.8% 2.8% Bayesian 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 6.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Franklin at 08/25/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 154 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 1.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 1.1% 7.8% SHIPS Consensus 2.0% 6.5% 4.2% 3.1% 2.4% 4.1% 5.1% 11.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 5.2% 3.1% 2.3% 1.7% 3.1% 4.1% 10.2% SHIPS-RII 4.5% 16.9% 11.4% 9.0% 7.1% 11.2% 14.0% 30.1% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 2.3% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.8% 1.5% 30.9% Logistic Regression 1.4% 2.5% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 1.0% 1.4% 3.0% Bayesian 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 54.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Franklin at 08/25/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 150 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.8% 2.6% 1.4% 0.2% 0.1% 1.9% 2.8% 9.4% SHIPS Consensus 1.6% 5.0% 3.2% 2.6% 1.6% 3.5% 4.7% 6.6% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.3% 4.3% 2.7% 1.9% 1.2% 3.1% 4.2% 7.3% SHIPS-RII 3.1% 13.1% 8.8% 7.4% 4.8% 9.6% 12.4% 16.9% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.4% 3.8% 2.2% 0.6% 0.5% 1.9% 1.9% 8.2% Logistic Regression 1.3% 1.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.9% 1.8% 2.9% Bayesian 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS 2.0% 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 7.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Franklin at 08/25/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 148 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.1% 2.4% 1.4% 0.8% 1.1% 1.7% 5.4% 12.8% SHIPS Consensus 1.9% 5.6% 3.4% 2.7% 1.7% 3.6% 5.1% 6.6% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.6% 4.7% 2.9% 2.2% 1.5% 3.1% 5.2% 8.2% SHIPS-RII 3.2% 13.4% 9.0% 7.5% 5.0% 9.3% 12.3% 16.4% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.0% 3.2% 1.7% 0.9% 1.0% 1.3% 3.2% 9.4% Logistic Regression 1.9% 2.7% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2% 1.5% 3.1% 3.5% Bayesian 0.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 6.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Franklin at 08/24/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 148 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.1% 7.4% 5.4% 4.8% 1.8% 3.6% 8.8% 10.2% SHIPS Consensus 3.5% 8.2% 4.9% 3.6% 2.4% 4.7% 5.8% 7.6% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.3% 8.0% 5.0% 3.9% 2.2% 4.4% 6.5% 8.2% SHIPS-RII 5.3% 16.1% 11.0% 8.9% 6.5% 10.0% 12.7% 15.6% AI-RI and DTOPS 2.5% 6.7% 4.2% 3.4% 1.4% 3.3% 7.4% 12.1% Logistic Regression 4.1% 7.0% 3.4% 1.9% 0.7% 4.0% 4.5% 7.0% Bayesian 1.0% 1.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% DTOPS 2.0% 6.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 3.0% 6.0% 14.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Franklin at 08/24/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 153 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 6.4% 4.3% 4.7% 1.9% 1.8% 2.9% 4.9% 11.3% SHIPS Consensus 3.5% 6.4% 4.0% 0.5% 0.2% 4.4% 5.7% 7.4% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.2% 5.9% 4.1% 0.8% 0.5% 4.0% 5.4% 8.4% SHIPS-RII 4.8% 14.3% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0% 9.7% 12.1% 15.3% AI-RI and DTOPS 4.2% 4.1% 3.8% 1.9% 1.4% 1.9% 2.9% 7.1% Logistic Regression 3.1% 4.2% 2.0% 1.6% 0.5% 3.5% 4.8% 6.9% Bayesian 2.6% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS 2.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Franklin at 08/24/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 151 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.9% 4.5% 4.5% 2.3% 0.7% 4.0% 1.8% 4.7% SHIPS Consensus 4.1% 9.6% 6.1% 5.5% 3.0% 5.6% 5.6% 8.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.2% 8.3% 5.7% 4.7% 2.4% 5.2% 4.6% 7.1% SHIPS-RII 5.8% 15.8% 10.9% 9.0% 6.3% 10.2% 11.5% 15.1% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.4% 4.7% 3.7% 2.1% 0.8% 3.0% 1.4% 4.3% Logistic Regression 5.6% 12.6% 7.3% 7.6% 2.6% 6.6% 5.2% 8.7% Bayesian 0.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS 2.0% 5.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 4.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Franklin at 08/24/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 150 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.3% 10.1% 9.0% 5.6% 2.0% 2.5% 3.9% 14.2% SHIPS Consensus 3.5% 11.5% 7.1% 5.9% 3.7% 5.9% 5.7% 7.4% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.7% 11.1% 7.5% 5.8% 3.2% 5.0% 5.2% 9.1% SHIPS-RII 6.1% 18.2% 12.3% 9.9% 7.9% 10.7% 11.4% 14.4% AI-RI and DTOPS 3.1% 14.5% 8.0% 4.3% 1.5% 3.2% 3.9% 13.6% Logistic Regression 4.3% 15.7% 8.7% 7.7% 3.2% 6.9% 5.5% 7.9% Bayesian 0.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS 2.0% 19.0% 7.0% 3.0% 1.0% 4.0% 4.0% 13.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Franklin at 08/23/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 143 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 5.7% 15.7% 11.5% 8.0% 3.5% 4.9% 14.0% 14.3% SHIPS Consensus 2.4% 8.7% 5.1% 4.0% 2.9% 4.7% 4.7% 1.2% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.2% 10.4% 6.7% 5.0% 3.0% 4.7% 7.0% 4.4% SHIPS-RII 3.5% 15.8% 10.6% 8.8% 7.0% 10.0% 9.8% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 2.8% 9.8% 6.7% 4.5% 1.7% 3.4% 7.5% 8.6% Logistic Regression 3.2% 9.6% 4.7% 3.2% 1.6% 4.2% 4.3% 3.6% Bayesian 0.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 3.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Franklin at 08/23/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 158 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.8% 21.9% 12.4% 8.5% 5.2% 4.1% 5.9% 16.2% SHIPS Consensus 4.4% 13.4% 7.0% 4.7% 3.0% 5.3% 5.7% 5.7% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.0% 15.5% 8.3% 5.6% 3.5% 5.0% 5.7% 8.3% SHIPS-RII 5.5% 22.2% 12.6% 9.8% 7.5% 11.4% 11.8% 14.2% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.4% 11.9% 6.7% 4.2% 2.6% 2.5% 3.4% 9.6% Logistic Regression 5.8% 15.4% 7.7% 3.9% 1.4% 4.3% 5.0% 3.0% Bayesian 1.9% 2.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Franklin at 08/23/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 157 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 6.5% 19.7% 20.3% 10.9% 4.1% 13.0% 5.9% 25.0% SHIPS Consensus 4.5% 15.8% 7.9% 4.0% 3.5% 5.6% 6.2% 6.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.0% 16.7% 11.0% 5.7% 3.6% 7.4% 6.1% 10.7% SHIPS-RII 6.6% 32.9% 18.4% 9.8% 9.8% 13.5% 14.2% 15.3% AI-RI and DTOPS 3.7% 10.3% 10.6% 5.4% 2.0% 7.0% 3.4% 14.0% Logistic Regression 3.8% 10.9% 4.6% 1.6% 0.5% 3.0% 4.2% 2.8% Bayesian 3.2% 3.5% 0.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Franklin at 08/23/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 153 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.3% 17.8% 15.7% 5.1% 2.6% 4.9% 9.2% 8.7% SHIPS Consensus 2.6% 14.1% 7.6% 5.3% 3.6% 6.1% 6.5% 6.8% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.8% 15.0% 9.6% 5.2% 3.4% 5.8% 7.1% 7.2% SHIPS-RII 4.2% 20.1% 12.1% 9.4% 7.6% 11.4% 12.5% 13.6% AI-RI and DTOPS 2.1% 9.4% 8.3% 2.5% 1.3% 2.4% 4.6% 5.3% Logistic Regression 3.5% 21.4% 10.7% 6.4% 3.4% 7.0% 6.8% 6.8% Bayesian 0.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Franklin at 08/22/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 155 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.8% 7.2% 4.2% 2.3% 2.0% 2.4% 8.2% 4.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 7.3% 4.1% 3.1% 2.3% 4.8% 5.7% 2.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 7.2% 4.0% 2.9% 2.2% 4.2% 6.3% 2.4% SHIPS-RII 2.3% 14.9% 9.7% 8.0% 6.1% 10.4% 11.2% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.9% 3.6% 2.1% 1.1% 1.0% 1.2% 4.1% 2.5% Logistic Regression 1.4% 6.6% 2.4% 1.4% 0.8% 4.1% 6.0% 5.9% Bayesian 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Franklin at 08/22/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 154 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.9% 9.3% 9.0% 3.1% 1.4% 4.6% 8.8% 6.5% SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 6.7% 4.0% 3.1% 2.1% 4.6% 5.8% 6.3% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 7.4% 5.1% 3.0% 1.9% 4.6% 6.5% 6.3% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 15.4% 10.2% 8.4% 6.1% 10.9% 12.8% 14.9% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.9% 6.1% 5.5% 2.0% 1.2% 2.8% 4.4% 4.2% Logistic Regression 1.1% 4.6% 1.6% 0.8% 0.4% 2.9% 4.5% 3.8% Bayesian 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Franklin at 08/22/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 151 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.3% 11.1% 6.7% 3.0% 3.7% 8.5% 16.4% 9.4% SHIPS Consensus 2.8% 9.2% 5.1% 3.4% 2.3% 5.2% 7.2% 7.8% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.4% 9.7% 5.5% 3.3% 2.7% 6.0% 9.5% 8.2% SHIPS-RII 4.1% 16.4% 11.0% 8.6% 6.4% 11.1% 14.2% 17.3% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.6% 6.5% 4.3% 2.0% 1.8% 4.7% 8.2% 5.7% Logistic Regression 3.2% 8.7% 3.5% 1.3% 0.6% 4.1% 7.3% 6.0% Bayesian 1.1% 2.6% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% DTOPS 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Franklin at 08/22/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 150 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 9.4% 6.7% 3.5% 0.4% 3.6% 3.1% 19.2% SHIPS Consensus 3.8% 19.6% 11.1% 5.5% 4.2% 7.1% 8.5% 9.8% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.8% 17.0% 9.9% 4.9% 3.2% 6.1% 7.3% 12.3% SHIPS-RII 6.6% 38.5% 22.8% 12.0% 10.8% 17.2% 19.8% 23.5% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.0% 9.2% 4.8% 2.7% 0.7% 2.8% 1.5% 10.6% Logistic Regression 4.4% 17.9% 9.7% 4.4% 1.6% 3.8% 5.0% 5.7% Bayesian 0.2% 2.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.8% 0.2% DTOPS 2.0% 9.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Franklin at 08/21/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 146 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 8.4% 19.4% 14.9% 8.4% 3.1% 9.0% 18.9% 13.2% SHIPS Consensus 9.9% 27.9% 16.5% 11.8% 7.7% 11.1% 10.5% 9.6% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 9.5% 25.7% 16.1% 10.9% 6.5% 10.5% 12.5% 10.5% SHIPS-RII 7.7% 43.3% 28.4% 19.8% 14.1% 21.9% 18.2% 19.7% AI-RI and DTOPS 5.2% 11.7% 8.4% 4.7% 1.5% 5.0% 9.4% 7.6% Logistic Regression 19.6% 27.3% 16.9% 12.8% 6.8% 10.5% 12.9% 8.8% Bayesian 2.5% 13.0% 4.3% 2.8% 2.3% 0.9% 0.3% 0.5% DTOPS 2.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Franklin at 08/21/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 148 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 10.8% 14.4% 11.9% 6.2% 6.3% 11.0% 14.3% 5.8% SHIPS Consensus 4.6% 10.5% 6.0% 4.4% 3.0% 5.6% 5.6% 6.4% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 6.1% 11.4% 7.4% 4.8% 3.8% 6.9% 7.7% 6.2% SHIPS-RII 6.5% 23.3% 12.8% 10.0% 8.0% 12.0% 13.6% 15.9% AI-RI and DTOPS 5.9% 8.7% 6.9% 3.6% 3.6% 6.0% 7.1% 3.9% Logistic Regression 5.3% 6.8% 3.7% 2.8% 0.9% 4.2% 3.0% 2.9% Bayesian 2.0% 1.4% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% DTOPS 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Franklin at 08/21/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 152 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 6.0% 15.3% 8.9% 8.0% 5.4% 8.8% 11.0% 5.7% SHIPS Consensus 7.0% 18.7% 13.5% 8.0% 4.6% 8.0% 6.5% 7.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 6.7% 17.8% 12.3% 8.0% 4.8% 8.1% 7.6% 6.6% SHIPS-RII 7.8% 38.3% 23.5% 14.4% 10.8% 16.5% 16.0% 18.5% AI-RI and DTOPS 4.0% 11.1% 6.9% 5.0% 3.2% 5.9% 6.0% 3.8% Logistic Regression 9.7% 14.6% 10.9% 6.7% 1.5% 4.3% 2.3% 2.1% Bayesian 3.6% 3.1% 6.0% 3.1% 1.6% 3.1% 1.1% 0.4% DTOPS 2.0% 7.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 2.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Franklin at 08/21/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 149 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.9% 16.8% 8.0% 6.7% 4.3% 14.2% 7.2% 14.9% SHIPS Consensus 5.2% 13.4% 8.5% 5.3% 2.9% 5.6% 7.1% 10.8% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.1% 14.2% 8.3% 5.6% 3.2% 7.7% 7.1% 11.8% SHIPS-RII 5.7% 24.6% 13.4% 9.6% 7.2% 11.8% 15.4% 27.7% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.4% 10.4% 5.0% 3.8% 2.1% 7.6% 4.1% 8.4% Logistic Regression 6.4% 14.9% 10.5% 5.7% 1.2% 3.5% 2.6% 3.5% Bayesian 3.5% 0.7% 1.5% 0.6% 0.4% 1.4% 3.3% 1.2% DTOPS 2.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Franklin at 08/20/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 145 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.0% 22.0% 15.3% 10.6% 3.3% 11.9% 17.2% 26.0% SHIPS Consensus 5.1% 12.1% 8.5% 6.0% 3.3% 6.0% 5.8% 12.3% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.5% 14.6% 10.2% 7.1% 3.2% 7.4% 8.6% 15.7% SHIPS-RII 5.5% 18.0% 12.2% 9.4% 6.7% 11.3% 14.0% 26.2% AI-RI and DTOPS 3.0% 14.0% 9.6% 6.3% 2.1% 7.4% 9.1% 14.0% Logistic Regression 7.1% 14.2% 10.6% 7.2% 1.7% 5.3% 2.8% 6.3% Bayesian 2.6% 4.2% 2.8% 1.4% 1.3% 1.4% 0.6% 4.4% DTOPS 3.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 2.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------