Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index

 

current Nine intensity image current Nine RI diff image

 


Ian at 09/30/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 130 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% SHIPS Consensus 2.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 1.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Ian at 09/30/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 133 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% SHIPS Consensus 4.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 12.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Logistic Regression 1.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Ian at 09/29/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 137 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% SHIPS Consensus 3.1% 4.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.3% 3.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 8.1% 11.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.0% 1.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Logistic Regression 1.0% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Ian at 09/29/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 135 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 5.4% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 16.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Ian at 09/29/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 137 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Ian at 09/29/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 139 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 1.3% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% Logistic Regression 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Ian at 09/28/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 135 kts, MPI = 145 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 21.5% 16.0% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 3.9% 0.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 3.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 43.0% 32.0% 19.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Ian at 09/28/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 135 kts, MPI = 146 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 14.7% 2.0% 2.2% 1.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 11.2% 1.5% 1.6% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 24.1% 5.9% 6.4% 4.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 19.9% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Ian at 09/28/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 147 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 7.0% 4.8% 3.6% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.7% 3.7% 2.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 7.0% 10.1% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 3.0% 0.7% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% Logistic Regression 9.1% 4.2% 3.5% 2.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 5.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Ian at 09/28/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 174 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.0% 2.0% 0.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 8.1% 6.2% 4.5% 3.4% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 6.6% 5.1% 3.4% 2.7% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 7.7% 13.7% 9.1% 7.9% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 6.5% 1.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% Logistic Regression 8.4% 4.9% 3.4% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 8.3% 0.1% 1.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 11.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Ian at 09/27/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 169 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 20.4% 9.0% 4.6% 2.5% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 7.8% 6.6% 4.9% 4.0% 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 10.9% 7.2% 4.8% 3.5% 2.1% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 9.6% 15.6% 10.1% 8.7% 6.6% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 15.7% 8.0% 4.8% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% Logistic Regression 5.0% 3.2% 1.9% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 8.9% 1.2% 2.6% 2.5% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 11.0% 7.0% 5.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Ian at 09/27/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 110 kts, MPI = 169 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 11.8% 6.8% 8.7% 6.1% 2.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 30.9% 16.7% 15.3% 10.4% 4.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 26.1% 14.2% 13.6% 9.3% 3.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 29.5% 28.7% 22.9% 12.3% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 22.4% 14.9% 14.3% 5.0% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 16.3% 17.7% 13.1% 6.0% 1.2% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 46.9% 3.7% 9.8% 13.0% 4.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 33.0% 23.0% 20.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Ian at 09/27/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 166 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 53.0% 25.3% 39.2% 12.1% 7.2% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 31.3% 20.6% 16.7% 12.7% 5.1% 4.5% 2.9% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 36.7% 21.7% 22.3% 12.5% 5.6% 3.6% 2.1% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 28.0% 33.2% 25.8% 14.7% 8.1% 10.2% 8.6% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 33.0% 21.1% 27.6% 10.5% 4.6% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 16.6% 21.7% 13.4% 6.1% 1.6% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian 49.5% 6.8% 10.8% 17.4% 5.6% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 13.0% 17.0% 16.0% 9.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Ian at 09/27/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 165 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 49.6% 58.6% 57.5% 41.5% 41.0% 5.4% 0.8% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 37.9% 54.9% 38.9% 33.5% 21.1% 10.6% 4.3% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 40.8% 55.8% 43.5% 35.5% 26.0% 9.3% 3.4% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 38.4% 57.5% 45.5% 30.9% 24.3% 21.0% 11.8% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 32.8% 67.3% 58.7% 44.2% 30.0% 21.2% 2.9% 0.0% Logistic Regression 37.1% 62.2% 46.3% 33.4% 17.2% 8.4% 0.8% 0.0%
Bayesian 38.1% 44.9% 25.0% 36.3% 21.8% 2.5% 0.4% 0.0%
DTOPS 16.0% 76.0% 60.0% 47.0% 19.0% 37.0% 5.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Ian at 09/26/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 158 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 54.3% 64.5% 61.0% 53.4% 42.0% 43.5% 10.7% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 45.4% 70.1% 55.6% 50.8% 31.3% 22.4% 8.4% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 47.6% 68.7% 56.9% 51.4% 34.0% 27.7% 9.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 50.4% 72.4% 63.8% 50.8% 40.5% 40.3% 21.1% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 69.1% 80.7% 77.0% 71.2% 49.5% 66.2% 49.8% 1.5% Logistic Regression 43.3% 69.9% 56.5% 46.9% 27.5% 16.8% 2.6% 0.0%
Bayesian 42.6% 68.1% 46.5% 54.7% 26.0% 10.2% 1.6% 0.0%
DTOPS 84.0% 97.0% 93.0% 89.0% 57.0% 89.0% 89.0% 3.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Ian at 09/26/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 161 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 60.1% 67.0% 66.1% 57.1% 50.4% 53.1% 18.3% 0.3% SHIPS Consensus 55.3% 82.7% 74.1% 65.1% 44.8% 46.0% 18.8% 4.8%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 56.5% 78.7% 72.1% 63.1% 46.1% 47.7% 18.7% 3.7% SHIPS-RII 60.6% 90.3% 85.2% 72.7% 57.4% 79.1% 43.5% 14.5%
AI-RI and DTOPS 57.5% 79.5% 73.5% 65.5% 35.2% 69.0% 54.6% 3.6% Logistic Regression 57.5% 81.6% 73.8% 63.8% 40.0% 42.2% 10.9% 0.0%
Bayesian 47.9% 76.2% 63.3% 58.9% 36.9% 16.6% 2.1% 0.0%
DTOPS 55.0% 92.0% 81.0% 74.0% 20.0% 85.0% 91.0% 7.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Ian at 09/26/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 162 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 55.3% 66.2% 61.7% 53.2% 38.2% 54.7% 24.1% 1.3% SHIPS Consensus 51.0% 84.4% 70.8% 55.6% 39.2% 52.8% 30.3% 8.3%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 52.0% 79.8% 68.5% 54.9% 38.9% 53.2% 28.7% 6.5% SHIPS-RII 52.0% 94.5% 89.9% 75.2% 58.5% 91.7% 62.1% 24.7%
AI-RI and DTOPS 70.6% 82.6% 79.8% 76.1% 58.1% 70.8% 60.5% 18.1% Logistic Regression 46.6% 79.5% 66.4% 42.6% 20.0% 41.0% 26.9% 0.2%
Bayesian 54.3% 79.1% 56.2% 48.9% 39.2% 25.7% 2.1% 0.0%
DTOPS 86.0% 99.0% 98.0% 99.0% 78.0% 87.0% 97.0% 35.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Ian at 09/26/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 160 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 23.4% 59.9% 47.7% 49.4% 26.4% 49.0% 36.6% 6.8% SHIPS Consensus 13.9% 64.0% 48.3% 35.9% 26.0% 51.5% 40.3% 10.9%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 16.2% 62.9% 48.1% 39.3% 26.0% 50.9% 39.3% 9.8% SHIPS-RII 18.3% 68.7% 56.0% 38.4% 30.7% 74.3% 66.8% 32.1%
AI-RI and DTOPS 17.7% 78.9% 70.8% 70.2% 30.2% 69.0% 66.8% 35.4% Logistic Regression 19.1% 72.0% 58.6% 54.2% 36.0% 47.8% 31.3% 0.4%
Bayesian 4.3% 51.3% 30.4% 15.2% 11.2% 32.5% 22.6% 0.2%
DTOPS 12.0% 98.0% 94.0% 91.0% 34.0% 89.0% 97.0% 64.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Ian at 09/25/22 18 UTC.    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS Consensus 4.3% 24.7% 14.6% 6.6% 4.3% 15.6% 24.7% 19.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 5.9% 36.7% 25.7% 11.1% 8.2% 29.4% 41.7% 46.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 5.4% 28.5% 14.4% 8.0% 3.6% 11.8% 28.4% 10.5%
Bayesian 1.6% 9.0% 3.8% 0.9% 1.0% 5.7% 4.1% 0.6%
DTOPS 5.0% 97.0% 86.0% 68.0% 20.0% 90.0% 98.0% 92.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Ian at 09/25/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 158 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 8.3% 57.8% 32.2% 31.2% 8.6% 25.9% 30.3% 21.3% SHIPS Consensus 4.3% 29.8% 15.8% 7.3% 4.2% 22.0% 27.4% 22.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.2% 36.8% 19.8% 13.2% 5.3% 22.9% 28.1% 21.9% SHIPS-RII 6.8% 40.1% 27.0% 14.1% 8.4% 35.4% 51.4% 55.1%
AI-RI and DTOPS 8.1% 72.9% 48.6% 41.6% 10.3% 53.4% 63.1% 57.1% Logistic Regression 4.6% 26.6% 12.8% 6.6% 3.1% 12.5% 22.5% 10.0%
Bayesian 1.4% 22.7% 7.5% 1.2% 1.2% 18.0% 8.3% 1.3%
DTOPS 8.0% 88.0% 65.0% 52.0% 12.0% 81.0% 96.0% 93.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Ian at 09/25/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 156 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.7% 41.3% 19.7% 8.4% 4.1% 10.3% 19.5% 19.0% SHIPS Consensus 4.5% 27.9% 13.5% 5.8% 4.0% 17.3% 28.7% 38.9%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.5% 31.2% 15.0% 6.4% 4.0% 15.5% 26.4% 33.9% SHIPS-RII 6.8% 33.8% 22.3% 10.1% 7.7% 24.5% 45.8% 60.9%
AI-RI and DTOPS 11.3% 64.6% 42.3% 27.2% 12.5% 41.6% 54.7% 55.0% Logistic Regression 4.6% 29.1% 12.6% 6.3% 3.4% 17.0% 33.4% 47.6%
Bayesian 2.0% 20.7% 5.6% 0.9% 1.1% 10.4% 7.0% 8.3%
DTOPS 22.0% 88.0% 65.0% 46.0% 21.0% 73.0% 90.0% 91.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Ian at 09/25/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 155 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 11.7% 58.2% 37.6% 15.4% 4.9% 25.9% 33.5% 27.8% SHIPS Consensus 12.8% 58.9% 33.7% 17.8% 13.7% 42.8% 49.8% 45.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 12.5% 58.7% 34.6% 17.2% 11.4% 38.5% 45.7% 40.8% SHIPS-RII 16.5% 53.6% 36.2% 21.6% 17.2% 43.9% 58.2% 64.1%
AI-RI and DTOPS 10.3% 62.6% 37.3% 19.2% 4.9% 51.9% 63.2% 61.4% Logistic Regression 17.6% 56.3% 36.2% 24.9% 16.4% 38.3% 52.9% 57.1%
Bayesian 4.3% 66.9% 28.6% 7.0% 7.4% 46.1% 38.2% 14.4%
DTOPS 9.0% 67.0% 37.0% 23.0% 5.0% 78.0% 93.0% 95.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Ian at 09/24/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 152 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 40.0% 52.5% 50.4% 23.7% 20.0% 44.2% 48.6% 40.8% SHIPS Consensus 23.3% 67.3% 49.6% 30.2% 22.5% 50.9% 56.0% 62.3%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 27.5% 63.6% 49.8% 28.5% 21.8% 49.2% 54.1% 56.9% SHIPS-RII 19.3% 59.2% 43.1% 23.9% 20.0% 48.7% 58.0% 66.2%
AI-RI and DTOPS 23.5% 55.7% 40.7% 20.3% 12.0% 58.6% 69.8% 68.9% Logistic Regression 39.8% 72.0% 58.4% 47.8% 34.3% 57.4% 69.8% 82.2%
Bayesian 10.9% 70.8% 47.3% 18.9% 13.2% 46.7% 40.2% 38.7%
DTOPS 7.0% 59.0% 31.0% 17.0% 4.0% 73.0% 91.0% 97.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Ian at 09/24/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 159 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 14.7% 37.0% 31.8% 7.8% 3.9% 33.6% 34.4% 47.4% SHIPS Consensus 19.8% 64.3% 41.2% 19.6% 14.0% 45.6% 60.5% 69.5%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 18.5% 57.4% 38.8% 16.6% 11.4% 42.6% 54.0% 63.9% SHIPS-RII 20.6% 58.5% 40.9% 22.3% 19.0% 37.9% 52.3% 66.9%
AI-RI and DTOPS 9.3% 33.5% 21.4% 7.9% 3.4% 28.8% 60.2% 60.2% Logistic Regression 30.1% 61.8% 45.9% 26.1% 18.2% 47.6% 67.2% 81.5%
Bayesian 8.6% 72.5% 36.9% 10.4% 4.7% 51.3% 62.1% 60.1%
DTOPS 4.0% 30.0% 11.0% 8.0% 3.0% 24.0% 86.0% 73.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Ian at 09/24/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 160 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.0% 6.3% 6.9% 2.6% 0.9% 16.6% 6.7% 36.6% SHIPS Consensus 5.4% 25.6% 11.5% 4.3% 3.1% 11.3% 33.2% 66.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.5% 20.7% 10.3% 3.8% 2.5% 12.6% 26.5% 58.7% SHIPS-RII 6.5% 24.9% 11.8% 8.6% 6.7% 11.4% 35.2% 68.1%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.0% 7.6% 5.9% 2.3% 0.4% 9.3% 9.8% 55.3% Logistic Regression 8.2% 37.0% 19.3% 4.2% 2.3% 17.2% 50.9% 82.3%
Bayesian 1.6% 14.9% 3.4% 0.1% 0.2% 5.5% 13.5% 48.1%
DTOPS 2.0% 9.0% 5.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 13.0% 74.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Ian at 09/24/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 159 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 4.3% 20.5% 13.7% 5.7% 4.2% 8.5% 15.5% 44.6% SHIPS Consensus 5.5% 27.0% 12.9% 4.1% 2.9% 9.1% 22.9% 58.6%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.2% 25.4% 13.0% 4.5% 3.2% 8.9% 21.0% 55.1% SHIPS-RII 6.7% 28.7% 15.2% 9.0% 7.0% 11.2% 28.7% 65.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.6% 14.2% 9.3% 4.8% 2.6% 6.2% 21.2% 53.3% Logistic Regression 8.4% 31.6% 17.6% 3.2% 1.6% 11.0% 32.7% 71.7%
Bayesian 1.4% 20.8% 5.9% 0.3% 0.2% 5.2% 7.2% 39.2%
DTOPS 1.0% 8.0% 5.0% 4.0% 1.0% 4.0% 27.0% 62.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Nine at 09/23/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 157 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.9% 12.5% 8.1% 2.9% 2.8% 10.5% 20.6% 33.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.3% 13.7% 6.3% 2.9% 2.2% 4.9% 15.0% 37.8%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.9% 13.3% 6.7% 2.9% 2.3% 6.2% 16.3% 36.6% SHIPS-RII 5.3% 19.0% 10.4% 7.8% 6.1% 10.5% 27.2% 61.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.9% 6.7% 4.0% 1.4% 1.4% 5.2% 10.8% 32.0% Logistic Regression 4.3% 16.4% 7.4% 0.9% 0.4% 3.5% 16.8% 49.1%
Bayesian 0.3% 5.6% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.9% 3.4%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 31.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Nine at 09/23/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 165 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 1.1% 0.7% 1.3% 0.6% 4.9% 2.2% 18.9% SHIPS Consensus 2.9% 16.9% 6.1% 2.7% 2.0% 5.0% 12.4% 37.8%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.2% 12.9% 4.6% 2.3% 1.6% 4.9% 9.8% 33.0% SHIPS-RII 5.3% 17.6% 10.1% 7.5% 5.8% 10.2% 23.5% 57.4%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.6% 0.3% 2.4% 1.1% 21.9% Logistic Regression 3.2% 11.2% 4.6% 0.4% 0.2% 2.5% 10.7% 40.1%
Bayesian 0.2% 21.9% 3.4% 0.1% 0.0% 2.2% 3.1% 15.9%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Nine at 09/23/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 164 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.5% 1.7% 1.2% 0.6% 0.1% 3.9% 4.4% 10.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.1% 8.2% 3.9% 2.3% 1.7% 3.8% 6.9% 32.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.6% 6.6% 3.1% 1.8% 1.2% 3.8% 6.2% 26.5% SHIPS-RII 4.3% 15.2% 8.9% 6.6% 5.0% 9.2% 12.3% 49.5%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.2% 0.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 1.9% 2.2% 7.5% Logistic Regression 1.9% 6.2% 2.3% 0.2% 0.1% 1.5% 6.5% 31.3%
Bayesian 0.1% 3.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 1.8% 15.2%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------