Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index

 

current Nine intensity image current Nine RI diff image

 


Harold at 08/23/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 145 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.4% 2.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 4.9% 3.2% 1.9% 0.0% 0.5% 2.6% N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 3.7% 2.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.4% 2.0% N/A SHIPS-RII 1.4% 12.5% 8.2% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 7.1% N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 1.4% 2.2% 1.3% 0.5% 0.1% 1.4% 0.7% N/A
Bayesian 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
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Harold at 08/22/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 150 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.2% 2.0% 1.2% 1.1% 0.4% 2.2% 4.9% 8.5% SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 5.4% 3.2% 3.9% 2.2% 5.6% 4.0% N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.3% 4.5% 2.7% 3.1% 1.7% 4.7% 4.1% N/A SHIPS-RII 1.2% 10.0% 6.1% 5.7% 2.8% 6.8% 5.8% N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.6% 1.0% 0.6% 0.5% 0.2% 1.1% 2.4% 4.2% Logistic Regression 2.5% 6.0% 3.5% 5.9% 3.7% 10.0% 6.1% N/A
Bayesian 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Harold at 08/22/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 173 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 3.3% 18.3% 7.0% 2.6% 0.3% 13.0% 4.5% 13.9% SHIPS Consensus 5.5% 12.7% 9.3% 6.7% 3.4% 8.0% 6.9% 6.8%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.9% 9.9% 4.9% 2.6% 1.7% 6.6% 5.1% 7.6% SHIPS-RII 3.4% 16.3% 10.7% 8.4% 5.5% 10.3% 12.1% 18.4%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 7.2% 19.1% 14.6% 11.3% 4.6% 12.9% 6.8% 1.1%
Bayesian 5.9% 2.6% 2.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.9% 1.7% 0.9%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Harold at 08/22/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 173 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 3.8% 19.8% 13.0% 2.6% 3.9% 9.6% 5.2% 10.7% SHIPS Consensus 4.9% 12.8% 7.7% 5.2% 2.9% 8.1% 8.6% 9.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.6% 14.5% 9.0% 4.5% 3.1% 8.5% 7.7% 9.4% SHIPS-RII 4.1% 16.9% 11.1% 8.7% 5.8% 10.3% 12.5% 21.1%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.4% 9.9% 6.5% 1.3% 1.9% 4.8% 2.6% 5.3% Logistic Regression 5.4% 16.9% 10.2% 6.8% 2.9% 13.2% 11.3% 4.2%
Bayesian 5.1% 4.7% 1.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.9% 1.9% 1.8%
DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Nine at 08/22/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 171 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.9% 24.2% 8.5% 4.0% 4.4% 2.5% 2.2% 7.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.5% 13.3% 8.7% 6.2% 3.4% 8.1% 8.9% 8.3%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.8% 16.0% 8.6% 5.6% 3.6% 6.7% 7.1% 7.9% SHIPS-RII 4.4% 17.9% 11.7% 8.9% 6.4% 10.5% 12.2% 17.2%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.9% 12.1% 4.2% 2.0% 2.2% 1.2% 1.1% 3.5% Logistic Regression 5.4% 20.5% 13.6% 9.5% 3.7% 13.7% 12.6% 6.6%
Bayesian 0.8% 1.5% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 1.8% 1.1%
DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Nine at 08/21/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 175 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 8.6% 36.1% 20.4% 13.0% 5.5% 6.6% 8.2% 12.4% SHIPS Consensus 8.7% 29.0% 18.7% 10.3% 6.0% 12.0% 10.3% 9.8%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 8.6% 30.7% 19.1% 10.9% 5.8% 10.6% 9.7% 10.4% SHIPS-RII 6.4% 33.7% 17.1% 10.2% 8.0% 11.7% 13.2% 19.9%
AI-RI and DTOPS 4.8% 18.5% 10.2% 6.5% 2.7% 3.3% 4.1% 6.2% Logistic Regression 17.7% 37.7% 30.0% 19.6% 9.6% 23.5% 17.1% 7.0%
Bayesian 1.9% 15.5% 9.0% 1.1% 0.4% 0.9% 0.6% 2.6%
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Nine at 08/21/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 183 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.0% 21.3% 6.3% 6.3% 2.0% 7.8% 20.4% 19.8% SHIPS Consensus 3.4% 19.6% 13.7% 7.6% 2.6% 7.6% 9.7% 1.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.1% 20.0% 11.8% 7.2% 2.4% 7.6% 12.3% 5.7% SHIPS-RII 3.3% 18.4% 11.8% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 12.1% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.0% 11.6% 3.6% 3.1% 1.0% 3.9% 10.2% 9.9% Logistic Regression 6.8% 38.5% 28.4% 15.1% 7.8% 22.7% 16.9% 2.8%
Bayesian 0.3% 1.9% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5%
DTOPS 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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