Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index

 

current Ten intensity image current Ten RI diff image

 


Hermine at 09/25/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 64 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Logistic Regression 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Hermine at 09/25/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 61 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% SHIPS Consensus 1.1% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 2.6% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Logistic Regression 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Hermine at 09/24/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 64 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% SHIPS Consensus 1.3% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 3.1% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% Logistic Regression 0.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Hermine at 09/24/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 72 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.7% 2.7% 2.3% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.3% 2.2% 1.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 4.1% 7.4% 6.4% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.8% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Hermine at 09/24/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 79 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 3.0% 1.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 2.3% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 2.0% 8.2% 3.0% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.7% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Hermine at 09/24/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 84 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 1.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 1.9% 1.7% 1.6% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.1% 1.8% 1.3% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 1.9% 4.9% 4.7% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.9% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Hermine at 09/23/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 109 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.8% 4.9% 3.5% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.0% 3.2% 2.4% 2.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.9% 3.6% 2.6% 2.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 2.4% 7.1% 5.9% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.4% 2.9% 1.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.8% 2.4% 1.3% 0.9% 0.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%
Bayesian 1.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Ten at 09/23/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 125 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 4.8% 12.8% 6.7% 5.1% 0.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.2% 6.1% 3.6% 3.0% 0.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.5% 7.7% 4.3% 3.4% 0.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 4.0% 11.3% 7.9% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.9% 6.9% 3.8% 2.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Logistic Regression 3.5% 5.9% 2.6% 1.7% 0.5% 1.9% 0.7% 0.0%
Bayesian 2.0% 1.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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