Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index

 

current Twelve intensity image current Twelve RI diff image

 


Twelve at 10/07/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 124 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 1.2% SHIPS Consensus 1.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% N/A SHIPS-RII 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.6% Logistic Regression 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% N/A
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Twelve at 10/06/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 126 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 1.1% 1.2% SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% N/A SHIPS-RII 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% 0.6% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% N/A
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Twelve at 10/06/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 127 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.9% SHIPS Consensus 1.1% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% N/A SHIPS-RII 2.7% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% Logistic Regression 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% N/A
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Twelve at 10/06/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 130 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.6% SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 1.5% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Twelve at 10/06/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 132 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.9% SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 1.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 1.5% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.4% Logistic Regression 0.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Twelve at 10/05/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 139 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.0% 2.7% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 1.5% 1.3% SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 1.3% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 1.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% SHIPS-RII 1.5% 3.3% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 1.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.6% Logistic Regression 0.5% 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Twelve at 10/05/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 144 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.0% 2.0% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 2.2% 2.7% SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 2.1% 1.6% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 2.0% 1.4% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.6% 0.7% SHIPS-RII 2.2% 5.7% 4.7% 3.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 1.1% 1.3% Logistic Regression 0.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Twelve at 10/05/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 145 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.4% 2.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 1.8% 2.6% SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 1.3% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 1.5% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% 0.7% SHIPS-RII 1.6% 3.4% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.2% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.9% 1.3% Logistic Regression 0.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.4%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Twelve at 10/05/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 147 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 3.6% 0.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 4.2% SHIPS Consensus 1.8% 4.4% 2.6% 2.1% 1.2% 2.2% 0.3% 0.3%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.3% 4.1% 2.1% 1.7% 0.9% 1.6% 0.2% 1.2% SHIPS-RII 2.8% 8.2% 5.9% 5.2% 3.2% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 1.8% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.1% Logistic Regression 1.9% 4.6% 1.8% 1.0% 0.3% 1.0% 0.9% 0.9%
Bayesian 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Twelve at 10/04/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 148 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.8% 19.0% 11.3% 2.9% 1.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 5.1% 9.4% 6.3% 4.8% 2.3% 3.6% 0.5% 0.5%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.5% 11.8% 7.5% 4.3% 2.1% 2.8% 0.4% 0.4% SHIPS-RII 4.9% 13.0% 8.5% 7.3% 4.9% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.9% 10.0% 5.6% 1.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Logistic Regression 8.1% 13.8% 8.6% 5.9% 1.7% 3.4% 1.6% 1.6%
Bayesian 2.3% 1.5% 1.9% 1.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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