Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index

 

current Thirteen intensity image current Thirteen RI diff image

 


Julia at 10/09/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 155 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.5% 23.7% 4.9% 1.8% 0.3% 1.9% 4.0% 3.4% SHIPS Consensus 2.4% 11.0% 3.6% 2.7% 3.0% 5.5% 4.5% 40.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.1% 14.1% 3.9% 2.5% 2.3% 4.6% 4.3% 30.9% SHIPS-RII 1.6% 13.6% 8.3% 6.2% 5.0% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.7% 12.3% 2.4% 0.9% 0.1% 1.4% 2.0% 1.7% Logistic Regression 1.4% 10.4% 2.1% 1.8% 3.8% 4.6% 11.1% 29.0%
Bayesian 4.2% 8.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 1.8% 2.4% 91.3%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Julia at 10/09/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 164 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 6.6% 56.7% 18.1% 13.9% 6.4% 6.9% 2.6% 3.0% SHIPS Consensus 15.1% 51.9% 22.5% 18.3% 18.4% 24.8% 17.6% 47.7%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 12.9% 53.1% 21.4% 17.2% 15.3% 20.3% 13.8% 36.5% SHIPS-RII 14.7% 49.8% 33.2% 20.5% 15.1% 25.2% 17.0% 14.4%
AI-RI and DTOPS 3.3% 28.8% 9.5% 6.9% 3.2% 3.4% 1.3% 1.5% Logistic Regression 23.3% 53.8% 22.7% 30.3% 38.8% 25.2% 31.7% 38.5%
Bayesian 7.3% 52.3% 11.7% 4.2% 1.3% 24.1% 4.2% 90.3%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Julia at 10/09/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 166 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 51.1% 70.4% 61.2% 51.1% 49.2% 18.7% 5.4% 0.6% SHIPS Consensus 46.9% 83.2% 63.9% 48.8% 35.7% 58.6% 28.8% 56.6%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 47.9% 80.0% 63.2% 49.3% 39.1% 48.5% 22.9% 42.6% SHIPS-RII 43.2% 76.4% 67.2% 46.4% 32.2% 56.5% 31.3% 22.8%
AI-RI and DTOPS 25.5% 35.2% 30.6% 25.5% 24.6% 9.3% 2.7% 0.8% Logistic Regression 51.2% 82.4% 60.1% 61.1% 63.0% 53.0% 45.9% 55.0%
Bayesian 46.4% 90.8% 64.4% 38.9% 12.0% 66.2% 9.0% 92.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%
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Julia at 10/09/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 166 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 45.1% 63.2% 58.4% 44.1% 34.6% 31.7% 7.2% 2.3% SHIPS Consensus 30.0% 71.6% 44.2% 30.3% 25.2% 45.7% 31.5% 61.9%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 33.8% 69.5% 47.8% 33.7% 27.5% 42.2% 25.4% 47.0% SHIPS-RII 25.9% 65.0% 53.1% 35.4% 26.8% 47.6% 28.5% 23.4%
AI-RI and DTOPS 22.5% 31.6% 29.2% 22.0% 17.3% 15.8% 3.6% 1.1% Logistic Regression 34.2% 71.8% 45.8% 40.8% 40.7% 39.2% 47.0% 64.5%
Bayesian 30.0% 78.1% 33.9% 14.6% 8.1% 50.3% 19.0% 97.8%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Julia at 10/08/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 161 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 26.1% 63.5% 47.2% 28.1% 12.4% 33.6% 37.4% 2.9% SHIPS Consensus 20.3% 69.3% 39.6% 21.9% 19.9% 40.6% 45.1% 68.3%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 21.7% 67.8% 41.5% 23.4% 18.0% 38.8% 43.2% 51.9% SHIPS-RII 15.1% 58.9% 42.4% 22.3% 17.1% 46.7% 34.1% 28.1%
AI-RI and DTOPS 19.5% 31.7% 23.6% 14.0% 6.2% 16.8% 18.7% 1.4% Logistic Regression 27.6% 76.7% 52.4% 36.7% 39.9% 45.5% 63.9% 77.9%
Bayesian 18.1% 72.2% 24.1% 6.8% 2.8% 29.6% 37.4% 98.9%
DTOPS 13.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Julia at 10/08/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 161 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 49.0% 69.1% 51.8% 49.0% 20.6% 44.6% 26.4% 2.8% SHIPS Consensus 39.5% 84.6% 66.0% 46.1% 37.5% 59.8% 43.4% 68.8%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 43.6% 80.8% 63.6% 48.5% 34.3% 56.9% 40.5% 52.7% SHIPS-RII 27.6% 74.4% 62.5% 41.5% 28.1% 74.8% 47.9% 27.8%
AI-RI and DTOPS 36.0% 39.0% 29.4% 27.0% 11.3% 22.3% 13.2% 1.4% Logistic Regression 46.5% 88.2% 73.8% 63.4% 60.0% 66.8% 70.6% 82.3%
Bayesian 44.5% 91.1% 61.8% 33.3% 24.3% 37.7% 11.5% 96.4%
DTOPS 23.0% 11.0% 9.0% 7.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Julia at 10/08/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 156 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 51.7% 71.5% 61.5% 59.1% 35.6% 53.3% 50.7% 18.4% SHIPS Consensus 43.9% 84.3% 69.4% 51.0% 38.3% 59.2% 54.4% 71.5%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 45.8% 81.1% 67.4% 53.0% 37.6% 57.7% 53.5% 58.1% SHIPS-RII 27.1% 74.9% 63.0% 41.1% 27.7% 73.1% 58.9% 31.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 34.8% 56.7% 42.2% 44.0% 20.3% 26.6% 25.3% 9.2% Logistic Regression 52.9% 90.7% 80.6% 71.1% 63.8% 70.0% 77.6% 85.1%
Bayesian 51.6% 87.4% 64.6% 40.8% 23.4% 34.7% 26.8% 98.3%
DTOPS 18.0% 42.0% 23.0% 29.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Julia at 10/08/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 154 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 9.4% 59.5% 37.1% 22.3% 10.5% 33.5% 40.4% 24.6% SHIPS Consensus 13.2% 63.4% 39.1% 19.3% 13.7% 33.5% 34.5% 73.3%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 12.2% 62.4% 38.6% 20.0% 12.9% 33.5% 36.0% 61.1% SHIPS-RII 7.6% 44.6% 28.5% 13.5% 8.0% 24.9% 28.5% 35.4%
AI-RI and DTOPS 7.7% 55.2% 30.0% 16.6% 7.7% 18.7% 20.2% 12.3% Logistic Regression 22.5% 75.9% 52.9% 33.9% 29.7% 52.3% 66.2% 86.6%
Bayesian 9.6% 69.8% 36.0% 10.6% 3.5% 23.3% 8.9% 98.1%
DTOPS 6.0% 51.0% 23.0% 11.0% 5.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Julia at 10/07/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 151 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.1% 47.9% 20.3% 13.1% 1.4% 36.0% 26.9% 39.4% SHIPS Consensus 6.2% 38.7% 17.1% 7.3% 5.1% 14.0% 38.0% 71.8%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.2% 41.0% 17.9% 8.7% 4.1% 19.5% 35.2% 63.6% SHIPS-RII 5.6% 23.0% 11.1% 8.6% 6.3% 11.4% 25.6% 34.4%
AI-RI and DTOPS 3.0% 46.9% 19.6% 9.5% 2.2% 29.0% 13.4% 19.7% Logistic Regression 10.4% 53.7% 29.9% 12.0% 6.8% 20.0% 59.9% 85.2%
Bayesian 2.7% 39.4% 10.5% 1.4% 2.1% 10.6% 28.5% 95.8%
DTOPS 4.0% 46.0% 19.0% 6.0% 3.0% 22.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Julia at 10/07/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 160 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 17.7% 42.7% 25.8% 19.1% 6.4% 26.7% 39.2% 45.8% SHIPS Consensus 9.8% 48.7% 26.8% 12.3% 10.1% 24.9% 40.2% 76.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 11.2% 47.2% 27.1% 13.3% 8.7% 27.2% 45.1% 68.6% SHIPS-RII 6.1% 28.5% 15.7% 9.0% 6.7% 12.1% 27.1% 41.4%
AI-RI and DTOPS 10.3% 34.3% 17.4% 11.0% 4.2% 17.3% 22.1% 22.9% Logistic Regression 19.5% 72.8% 52.2% 26.9% 22.7% 47.6% 62.3% 90.4%
Bayesian 3.7% 44.8% 12.4% 0.9% 0.9% 15.0% 31.1% 96.2%
DTOPS 3.0% 29.0% 10.0% 4.0% 2.0% 9.0% 6.0% 0.0%
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Thirteen at 10/07/22 06 UTC.    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS Consensus 5.6% 30.5% 15.4% 6.0% 4.9% 14.5% 31.4% 72.7%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 4.5% 17.1% 10.1% 7.6% 5.7% 10.3% 14.1% 37.8%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 11.2% 57.9% 32.7% 10.1% 8.7% 30.5% 60.9% 88.2%
Bayesian 1.1% 16.4% 3.5% 0.2% 0.1% 2.7% 19.2% 92.2%
DTOPS 1.0% 6.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 4.0% 0.0%
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Thirteen at 10/07/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 159 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 22.3% 8.3% 2.8% 0.4% 19.0% 12.0% 32.8% SHIPS Consensus 5.5% 29.0% 17.5% 9.8% 7.7% 12.6% 24.4% 69.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.2% 27.3% 15.1% 8.0% 5.8% 14.2% 21.3% 60.0% SHIPS-RII 3.6% 15.4% 9.2% 6.8% 5.1% 9.7% 12.3% 42.8%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 13.1% 5.1% 1.9% 0.2% 10.5% 8.5% 16.4% Logistic Regression 12.0% 64.8% 41.8% 22.4% 17.8% 27.0% 48.0% 82.8%
Bayesian 0.9% 6.7% 1.4% 0.1% 0.2% 1.1% 13.0% 81.7%
DTOPS 0.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 5.0% 0.0%
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Thirteen at 10/06/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 154 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 31.3% 55.4% 37.0% 31.0% 11.4% 31.1% 41.3% 45.9% SHIPS Consensus 13.0% 43.9% 27.5% 14.4% 9.6% 20.7% 26.7% 66.5%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 17.5% 46.8% 29.8% 18.5% 10.0% 23.3% 30.3% 61.3% SHIPS-RII 6.4% 31.5% 19.1% 9.3% 7.0% 14.6% 24.0% 40.9%
AI-RI and DTOPS 16.1% 29.7% 19.5% 16.0% 5.7% 16.0% 23.6% 23.4% Logistic Regression 27.0% 67.2% 49.8% 32.3% 20.8% 40.4% 52.2% 75.4%
Bayesian 5.5% 33.1% 13.5% 1.5% 1.1% 7.1% 3.8% 83.3%
DTOPS 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 6.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Thirteen at 10/06/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 157 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 20.1% 49.2% 37.6% 21.5% 5.0% 28.2% 31.9% 46.5% SHIPS Consensus 10.6% 41.9% 22.1% 11.2% 7.7% 21.6% 35.3% 64.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 12.9% 43.7% 26.0% 13.7% 7.0% 23.2% 34.4% 59.6% SHIPS-RII 6.2% 28.1% 15.8% 9.1% 6.8% 11.7% 19.7% 36.3%
AI-RI and DTOPS 10.5% 25.1% 18.8% 10.7% 2.5% 14.1% 15.9% 23.7% Logistic Regression 20.7% 60.8% 40.7% 22.8% 15.3% 42.0% 63.6% 83.3%
Bayesian 4.9% 36.9% 10.0% 1.6% 1.0% 11.2% 22.7% 72.6%
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%
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