Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index

 

current Fourteen intensity image current Fourteen RI diff image

 


Karl at 10/15/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 149 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 2.2% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 1.0% 1.3% 2.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 3.6% 2.6% 1.8% 0.0% 0.3% 3.1% N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 3.2% 2.2% 1.4% 0.0% 0.5% 2.6% N/A SHIPS-RII 1.7% 6.9% 5.5% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% 7.2% N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.5% 0.6% 1.0% Logistic Regression 1.2% 3.7% 2.4% 0.5% 0.1% 1.0% 2.1% N/A
Bayesian 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Karl at 10/15/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 142 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 6.2% 1.7% 1.4% 0.5% 1.9% 0.9% 4.8% SHIPS Consensus 1.9% 6.8% 5.1% 3.0% 1.9% 3.7% 1.2% N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 6.6% 4.2% 2.6% 1.5% 3.2% 1.1% N/A SHIPS-RII 3.3% 10.5% 7.4% 6.7% 4.9% 8.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 3.1% 0.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.9% 0.4% 2.4% Logistic Regression 2.2% 9.8% 8.0% 2.3% 0.7% 3.1% 3.5% N/A
Bayesian 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Karl at 10/14/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 140 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 2.6% 1.1% 1.7% 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 3.8% SHIPS Consensus 3.1% 8.5% 6.5% 3.4% 2.0% 3.9% 4.1% N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.3% 7.0% 5.1% 2.9% 1.4% 3.0% 3.1% N/A SHIPS-RII 4.4% 12.1% 8.0% 7.1% 5.1% 8.4% 9.0% N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 1.3% 0.5% 0.8% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 1.9% Logistic Regression 4.8% 13.1% 11.2% 3.0% 0.8% 3.3% 3.3% N/A
Bayesian 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Karl at 10/14/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 154 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.0% 10.2% 5.7% 3.9% 0.4% 9.6% 1.5% 3.0% SHIPS Consensus 6.8% 13.6% 11.1% 6.0% 3.2% 7.8% 8.0% 3.7%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.5% 12.7% 9.7% 5.4% 2.5% 8.2% 6.3% 3.5% SHIPS-RII 6.0% 15.0% 9.5% 8.5% 6.3% 10.1% 10.5% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.5% 5.1% 2.8% 1.9% 0.2% 4.8% 0.7% 1.5% Logistic Regression 13.6% 24.5% 23.2% 9.2% 3.4% 13.2% 13.4% 10.8%
Bayesian 0.7% 1.2% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3%
DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Karl at 10/14/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 152 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 3.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 1.9% 1.6% 2.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 4.0% 3.0% 1.9% 1.2% 2.7% 0.7% 1.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 3.9% 2.4% 1.5% 0.9% 2.5% 0.9% 1.2% SHIPS-RII 2.1% 6.5% 5.1% 4.9% 3.4% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 1.8% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.9% 0.8% 1.0% Logistic Regression 1.9% 5.5% 4.0% 0.9% 0.3% 1.5% 2.0% 3.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Karl at 10/14/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 148 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.5% 4.9% 1.6% 0.7% 0.5% 1.1% 2.4% 1.6% SHIPS Consensus 2.4% 7.2% 5.3% 2.8% 1.8% 3.7% 4.7% 5.9%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.1% 6.6% 4.4% 2.2% 1.4% 3.0% 4.1% 4.8% SHIPS-RII 3.2% 9.5% 6.6% 5.9% 4.4% 7.7% 9.3% 11.9%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.7% 2.9% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.5% 1.2% 0.8% Logistic Regression 3.9% 12.0% 9.4% 2.5% 0.9% 3.2% 4.7% 5.9%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Karl at 10/13/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 150 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.6% 4.4% 2.4% 1.4% 0.7% 0.8% 2.0% 2.4% SHIPS Consensus 2.9% 7.1% 5.1% 2.7% 1.8% 3.7% 4.4% 6.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.8% 6.4% 4.4% 2.3% 1.5% 2.9% 3.8% 5.2% SHIPS-RII 4.4% 11.2% 7.4% 6.6% 4.8% 8.2% 9.6% 13.1%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.3% 2.2% 1.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.4% 1.0% 1.2% Logistic Regression 4.2% 10.0% 8.0% 1.5% 0.5% 2.8% 3.7% 5.5%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Karl at 10/13/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 159 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.9% 4.6% 1.2% 0.7% 0.2% 2.0% 2.9% 1.6% SHIPS Consensus 1.8% 4.1% 3.0% 0.1% 0.0% 2.6% 0.2% 0.7%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 4.2% 2.5% 0.2% 0.0% 2.4% 0.8% 0.9% SHIPS-RII 3.5% 8.7% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.4% 2.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 1.0% 1.4% 0.8% Logistic Regression 1.7% 3.6% 3.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.6% 1.9%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Karl at 10/13/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 155 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.8% SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 3.1% 2.3% 1.9% 1.4% 2.4% 2.7% 3.8%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.1% 2.7% 1.8% 1.5% 1.0% 1.8% 2.1% 3.0% SHIPS-RII 3.4% 7.9% 5.8% 5.6% 4.0% 6.9% 7.8% 10.7%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% Logistic Regression 0.9% 1.3% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.7%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Karl at 10/13/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 146 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.8% 4.3% 1.3% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 0.7% 2.1% SHIPS Consensus 2.6% 4.9% 3.6% 2.8% 1.8% 2.9% 3.3% 4.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.9% 5.8% 3.9% 2.9% 1.9% 2.9% 2.8% 3.9% SHIPS-RII 4.8% 10.6% 7.4% 7.2% 5.1% 8.1% 9.2% 11.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.4% 3.1% 1.6% 1.3% 0.8% 0.8% 0.3% 1.0% Logistic Regression 2.2% 4.0% 3.3% 1.0% 0.2% 0.7% 0.8% 1.5%
Bayesian 0.8% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
DTOPS 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Karl at 10/12/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 147 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 9.6% 8.1% 9.0% 3.0% 2.3% 3.6% 0.5% 1.5% SHIPS Consensus 5.0% 10.4% 8.0% 5.4% 2.7% 4.2% 3.9% 5.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 6.1% 9.8% 8.2% 4.8% 2.5% 4.0% 3.0% 4.1% SHIPS-RII 6.8% 14.8% 9.5% 8.9% 6.3% 9.4% 10.3% 11.9%
AI-RI and DTOPS 7.3% 5.5% 5.5% 2.0% 1.1% 1.8% 0.2% 0.7% Logistic Regression 6.3% 16.3% 14.4% 6.9% 1.6% 3.2% 1.3% 3.1%
Bayesian 1.8% 0.1% 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
DTOPS 5.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Karl at 10/12/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 158 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 3.5% 11.0% 11.0% 3.0% 1.5% 1.6% 1.7% 1.1% SHIPS Consensus 2.9% 6.4% 4.5% 3.4% 2.0% 3.3% 3.3% 4.3%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.0% 7.5% 6.1% 3.2% 1.8% 2.8% 2.9% 3.4% SHIPS-RII 5.1% 12.1% 8.2% 7.6% 5.5% 8.6% 9.0% 11.7%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.7% 6.5% 6.0% 1.5% 0.7% 0.8% 0.8% 0.5% Logistic Regression 2.8% 7.0% 5.3% 2.3% 0.5% 1.2% 0.9% 0.9%
Bayesian 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
DTOPS 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Karl at 10/12/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 153 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.0% 9.1% 7.9% 1.4% 1.0% 2.0% 1.7% 1.8% SHIPS Consensus 2.3% 7.0% 4.3% 3.0% 2.0% 3.5% 3.6% 4.4%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.9% 7.5% 5.2% 2.6% 1.7% 3.1% 3.0% 3.7% SHIPS-RII 4.4% 13.2% 8.7% 7.7% 5.7% 8.9% 9.4% 12.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.0% 5.0% 3.9% 0.7% 0.5% 1.0% 0.8% 0.9% Logistic Regression 1.9% 7.6% 4.1% 1.4% 0.4% 1.5% 1.2% 1.0%
Bayesian 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Karl at 10/12/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 146 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 4.4% 32.3% 12.0% 6.1% 2.6% 3.0% 5.1% 4.7% SHIPS Consensus 4.2% 15.1% 8.9% 5.3% 2.9% 4.7% 4.5% 4.8%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.2% 19.3% 9.6% 5.5% 2.8% 4.2% 4.6% 4.7% SHIPS-RII 5.8% 17.2% 10.7% 9.0% 6.6% 10.0% 10.7% 12.4%
AI-RI and DTOPS 3.2% 17.6% 7.0% 3.5% 1.3% 1.5% 2.5% 2.3% Logistic Regression 5.7% 26.0% 15.3% 6.5% 2.0% 3.9% 2.6% 1.7%
Bayesian 1.2% 2.0% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3%
DTOPS 2.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Karl at 10/11/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 145 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.4% 30.5% 16.7% 9.2% 1.2% 9.1% 8.3% 8.4% SHIPS Consensus 11.8% 39.0% 20.7% 8.4% 4.6% 12.3% 13.5% 16.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 9.4% 36.8% 19.7% 8.6% 3.7% 11.4% 12.2% 14.2% SHIPS-RII 6.9% 31.9% 23.8% 10.1% 7.4% 11.5% 13.1% 15.2%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.2% 17.2% 9.8% 5.1% 0.6% 4.5% 4.1% 4.2% Logistic Regression 13.6% 58.0% 33.0% 10.7% 5.7% 23.8% 27.0% 32.3%
Bayesian 15.0% 27.1% 5.3% 4.5% 0.7% 1.5% 0.4% 0.9%
DTOPS 2.0% 4.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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