Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index

 

current Fifteen intensity image current Fifteen RI diff image

 


Invest at 11/05/22 12 UTC.    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Bayesian N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lisa at 11/05/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 116 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.7% SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 1.4% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 1.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% SHIPS-RII 1.6% 3.3% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% Logistic Regression 0.7% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lisa at 11/04/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 118 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.3% SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 1.4% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 1.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SHIPS-RII 1.6% 3.3% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.1% Logistic Regression 0.5% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lisa at 11/04/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 135 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.7% 2.9% 0.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 6.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.5% 3.8% 2.6% 2.3% 1.3% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 2.8% 1.5% 0.8% 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 1.6% SHIPS-RII 3.1% 6.4% 5.2% 5.1% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.3% 1.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 3.0% Logistic Regression 3.4% 4.6% 2.3% 1.8% 0.7% 2.2% 0.8% 0.5%
Bayesian 1.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lisa at 11/04/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 135 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 2.2% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 3.5% SHIPS Consensus 1.3% 2.2% 1.5% 1.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 2.1% 1.3% 1.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 1.0% SHIPS-RII 1.6% 3.5% 3.3% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 1.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 1.7% Logistic Regression 1.7% 2.8% 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.8% 0.9% 0.7%
Bayesian 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lisa at 11/04/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 136 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 3.7% 2.4% 3.2% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 1.3% 5.3% 3.1% 2.3% 0.4% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.9% 4.5% 3.0% 1.9% 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 1.9% 6.8% 5.3% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.8% 1.2% 1.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Logistic Regression 2.0% 9.0% 3.9% 2.2% 1.3% 2.0% 1.1% 0.6%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lisa at 11/03/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 141 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.4% 1.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 2.5% 1.7% 1.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 2.1% 1.4% 1.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 1.5% 4.6% 4.2% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.4% 2.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lisa at 11/03/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 152 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 1.6% 1.0% 0.6% 0.3% 1.7% 0.1% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 1.2% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 1.3% 3.4% 2.4% 1.6% 0.8% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.2% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lisa at 11/03/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 157 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 1.6% 0.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 1.1% 4.4% 2.5% 2.1% 1.8% 2.7% 0.3% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 3.7% 2.0% 1.7% 1.4% 2.0% 0.3% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 1.6% 6.8% 5.2% 4.9% 3.8% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.8% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.9% 5.9% 2.2% 1.3% 1.7% 1.4% 1.0% 0.3%
Bayesian 1.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lisa at 11/03/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 161 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 8.2% 7.5% 7.7% 5.5% 3.6% 2.1% 1.7% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 2.7% 10.5% 5.5% 4.1% 3.7% 4.7% 0.8% 0.3%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.0% 9.7% 6.0% 4.4% 3.6% 4.0% 1.0% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 5.1% 15.3% 9.8% 8.8% 6.6% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 4.1% 3.7% 3.8% 2.7% 1.8% 1.0% 0.8% 0.1% Logistic Regression 2.7% 14.5% 6.4% 3.5% 4.4% 4.3% 2.5% 0.8%
Bayesian 0.3% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lisa at 11/02/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 152 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 14.4% 20.7% 13.4% 8.1% 2.1% 5.6% 6.1% 0.4% SHIPS Consensus 7.7% 17.7% 8.2% 5.4% 4.2% 6.7% 4.3% 0.5%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 9.3% 18.4% 9.5% 6.0% 3.7% 6.4% 4.7% 0.5% SHIPS-RII 14.2% 17.5% 11.1% 10.1% 7.5% 10.0% 8.3% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 5.6% 21.7% 10.0% 4.9% 4.8% 6.9% 4.2% 1.6%
Bayesian 3.2% 14.0% 3.6% 1.2% 0.4% 3.3% 0.4% 0.1%
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lisa at 11/02/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 157 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 30.4% 28.3% 23.4% 13.4% 3.0% 5.7% 7.5% 1.3% SHIPS Consensus 9.5% 22.7% 11.2% 6.9% 5.3% 7.3% 6.2% 1.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 14.7% 24.1% 14.2% 8.5% 4.7% 6.9% 6.4% 1.1% SHIPS-RII 15.4% 19.2% 12.5% 10.2% 7.6% 10.1% 8.7% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 15.2% 14.1% 11.7% 6.7% 1.5% 2.8% 3.7% 0.6% Logistic Regression 8.6% 29.3% 15.5% 8.4% 7.8% 8.5% 6.7% 3.0%
Bayesian 4.6% 19.7% 5.7% 2.1% 0.5% 3.4% 3.0% 0.2%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lisa at 11/02/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 157 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 16.0% 19.9% 25.6% 9.3% 4.5% 19.9% 4.8% 4.0% SHIPS Consensus 6.9% 24.1% 11.3% 5.1% 3.7% 5.8% 6.7% 5.6%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 9.1% 23.0% 14.8% 6.1% 3.9% 9.3% 6.2% 5.1% SHIPS-RII 9.0% 26.3% 16.8% 9.9% 7.3% 10.8% 10.3% 8.4%
AI-RI and DTOPS 16.0% 10.4% 12.8% 4.6% 2.2% 9.9% 2.4% 2.0% Logistic Regression 6.8% 29.0% 13.1% 4.6% 3.5% 5.3% 7.4% 6.9%
Bayesian 4.8% 17.1% 4.0% 0.7% 0.4% 1.4% 2.4% 1.4%
DTOPS 16.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lisa at 11/02/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 157 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 11.5% 39.3% 24.0% 12.6% 7.3% 24.8% 16.7% 16.8% SHIPS Consensus 12.5% 43.2% 21.9% 10.9% 6.4% 9.7% 8.6% 7.8%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 9.2% 36.0% 19.2% 8.9% 5.5% 12.4% 10.3% 10.2% SHIPS-RII 17.3% 45.4% 29.7% 20.2% 10.7% 18.2% 11.8% 10.9%
AI-RI and DTOPS 16.7% 22.1% 13.5% 6.8% 4.1% 12.4% 8.3% 8.4% Logistic Regression 10.4% 40.1% 19.9% 9.8% 6.2% 7.6% 9.9% 10.8%
Bayesian 9.8% 44.2% 16.1% 2.7% 2.4% 3.3% 4.0% 1.6%
DTOPS 22.0% 6.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lisa at 11/01/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 161 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 30.5% 45.6% 29.8% 25.8% 9.2% 36.2% 30.6% 27.3% SHIPS Consensus 15.9% 55.1% 32.9% 16.2% 11.0% 19.3% 19.1% 17.9%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 19.5% 52.6% 32.1% 18.6% 10.5% 23.5% 21.9% 20.2% SHIPS-RII 15.0% 47.3% 30.1% 19.7% 11.2% 23.7% 26.9% 14.5%
AI-RI and DTOPS 24.2% 33.3% 21.9% 14.9% 5.1% 18.1% 15.3% 13.6% Logistic Regression 19.1% 61.3% 39.5% 23.1% 17.7% 24.0% 23.6% 32.3%
Bayesian 13.5% 56.6% 29.0% 5.9% 4.2% 10.3% 6.8% 6.9%
DTOPS 18.0% 21.0% 14.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lisa at 11/01/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 168 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 28.4% 46.9% 26.7% 20.5% 9.3% 31.1% 32.7% 34.0% SHIPS Consensus 13.5% 50.8% 34.7% 17.8% 10.7% 22.9% 21.9% 20.8%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 14.1% 40.7% 26.0% 14.6% 8.1% 20.5% 19.9% 23.2% SHIPS-RII 11.7% 45.0% 29.5% 20.0% 12.9% 26.1% 27.0% 15.7%
AI-RI and DTOPS 16.2% 27.4% 15.3% 10.2% 4.6% 15.5% 16.3% 17.0% Logistic Regression 19.0% 56.7% 39.3% 25.5% 16.2% 30.9% 26.8% 39.0%
Bayesian 9.6% 50.6% 35.3% 7.8% 3.1% 11.8% 11.7% 7.6%
DTOPS 7.0% 18.0% 10.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


 


Lisa at 11/01/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 167 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 8.8% 28.7% 19.5% 9.8% 3.5% 22.0% 28.8% 36.8% SHIPS Consensus 6.9% 32.5% 18.1% 9.4% 5.9% 12.8% 13.9% 18.7%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 7.3% 31.5% 18.4% 9.5% 5.3% 15.1% 17.6% 23.2% SHIPS-RII 6.1% 23.5% 13.5% 9.7% 7.4% 12.1% 12.2% 14.9%
AI-RI and DTOPS 6.4% 16.3% 10.7% 4.9% 1.7% 11.0% 14.4% 18.4% Logistic Regression 11.1% 44.4% 29.2% 16.1% 9.5% 20.7% 23.6% 36.9%
Bayesian 3.4% 29.7% 11.4% 2.4% 0.9% 5.7% 6.0% 4.2%
DTOPS 4.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lisa at 11/01/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 167 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 9.7% 34.8% 24.3% 11.4% 9.5% 17.8% 21.3% 36.9% SHIPS Consensus 8.5% 41.7% 25.0% 11.2% 6.2% 17.6% 20.6% 19.4%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 8.8% 39.9% 24.8% 11.2% 7.0% 17.5% 20.7% 23.7% SHIPS-RII 7.0% 26.9% 17.2% 10.2% 7.7% 14.1% 15.9% 15.7%
AI-RI and DTOPS 6.3% 18.4% 12.6% 6.2% 4.7% 8.9% 10.6% 18.4% Logistic Regression 13.2% 46.5% 33.5% 17.2% 9.1% 24.3% 32.5% 35.6%
Bayesian 5.4% 51.6% 24.2% 6.4% 2.0% 14.2% 13.4% 7.0%
DTOPS 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lisa at 10/31/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 165 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 7.2% 21.4% 10.7% 4.1% 1.5% 26.5% 26.4% 27.5% SHIPS Consensus 3.7% 17.4% 10.3% 1.7% 0.7% 7.3% 17.7% 19.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.5% 18.4% 10.4% 2.3% 0.9% 12.1% 19.8% 21.1% SHIPS-RII 4.6% 14.4% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.1% 12.3% 18.6%
AI-RI and DTOPS 5.1% 11.2% 5.8% 2.0% 0.7% 13.2% 13.2% 13.7% Logistic Regression 4.8% 25.9% 16.3% 4.9% 1.9% 9.0% 20.3% 32.8%
Bayesian 1.6% 11.9% 5.8% 0.2% 0.3% 2.9% 20.5% 5.5%
DTOPS 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lisa at 10/31/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 170 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.5% 8.9% 5.1% 2.9% 0.6% 7.7% 23.5% 20.2% SHIPS Consensus 2.3% 7.4% 4.3% 2.6% 1.9% 4.1% 6.6% 10.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.0% 7.7% 4.5% 2.6% 1.5% 4.9% 10.8% 12.7% SHIPS-RII 4.5% 12.7% 8.2% 7.1% 5.4% 9.4% 11.4% 16.6%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.2% 4.9% 3.0% 1.4% 0.3% 3.8% 11.7% 10.1% Logistic Regression 1.8% 6.4% 3.4% 0.6% 0.1% 2.2% 7.7% 13.7%
Bayesian 0.5% 2.9% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.5% 0.8% 0.4%
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Fifteen at 10/31/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 169 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 11.9% 2.4% 3.6% 1.5% 3.3% 9.6% 17.4% SHIPS Consensus 2.5% 7.8% 4.7% 3.1% 2.1% 4.3% 7.1% 13.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.9% 8.8% 4.1% 3.1% 1.9% 4.0% 7.7% 14.2% SHIPS-RII 5.3% 13.9% 8.8% 7.9% 6.0% 9.8% 11.7% 20.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 6.9% 1.7% 1.8% 0.7% 1.6% 4.8% 8.7% Logistic Regression 2.0% 8.4% 4.9% 1.2% 0.3% 2.9% 9.1% 19.4%
Bayesian 0.2% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.5% 0.2%
DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Fifteen at 10/31/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 169 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.8% 12.2% 9.8% 2.6% 0.6% 11.1% 13.7% 24.7% SHIPS Consensus 3.1% 11.0% 6.1% 3.7% 2.5% 5.1% 7.9% 17.6%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.8% 11.2% 7.0% 3.4% 2.0% 6.5% 9.3% 19.4% SHIPS-RII 6.1% 16.4% 10.1% 8.9% 6.8% 10.4% 12.4% 30.4%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.4% 7.1% 5.4% 1.3% 0.3% 5.5% 6.8% 13.3% Logistic Regression 2.8% 11.7% 7.0% 1.7% 0.4% 4.2% 10.0% 22.2%
Bayesian 0.5% 4.7% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.5% 1.2% 0.3%
DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Fifteen at 10/30/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 168 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.6% 14.1% 11.5% 4.5% 1.6% 14.0% 12.8% 18.3% SHIPS Consensus 4.7% 16.4% 12.2% 7.1% 3.2% 7.5% 6.7% 12.8%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.6% 15.8% 12.0% 6.4% 2.8% 9.1% 8.2% 14.1% SHIPS-RII 6.9% 20.7% 11.2% 9.8% 7.3% 11.0% 12.4% 21.6%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.8% 12.0% 8.7% 2.7% 0.8% 7.0% 6.4% 10.1% Logistic Regression 6.0% 27.3% 23.6% 11.0% 2.2% 11.1% 7.5% 16.1%
Bayesian 1.0% 1.3% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.7%
DTOPS 3.0% 10.0% 6.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0%
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