Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index

 

current  invest intensity image current  invest RI diff image

 


Martin at 11/03/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 24 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
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Martin at 11/03/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 58 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Martin at 11/03/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 96 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Martin at 11/03/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 116 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.3% 2.5% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 4.0% 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Martin at 11/02/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 118 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 5.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 13.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 6.0% 19.5% 10.0% 13.5% 3.0% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 12.0% 39.0% 20.0% 27.0% 6.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Martin at 11/02/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 124 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 5.5% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 4.2% 4.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.5% 3.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 7.6% 11.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 7.2% 23.1% 10.7% 4.5% 0.5% 8.0% 2.5% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 9.0% 46.0% 21.0% 9.0% 1.0% 16.0% 5.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Martin at 11/02/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 127 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.3% 3.6% 2.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.7% 2.7% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 4.5% 8.3% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 10.1% 39.1% 29.1% 25.0% 8.0% 8.0% 2.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.7% 2.5% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 20.0% 78.0% 58.0% 50.0% 16.0% 16.0% 4.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Martin at 11/02/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 111 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.6% 3.3% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.3% 2.6% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 4.1% 8.4% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 0.6% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Martin at 11/01/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 112 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.5% 5.2% 3.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.9% 4.0% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 5.3% 11.1% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 3.0% 22.7% 14.6% 9.0% 2.5% 7.0% 13.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.2% 4.6% 1.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 6.0% 45.0% 29.0% 18.0% 5.0% 14.0% 26.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Martin at 11/01/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 110 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.1% 2.5% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 1.8% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 2.0% 5.0% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 5.5% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% 0.5% Logistic Regression 0.8% 2.4% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 11.0% 6.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 6.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------