Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index

 

current Nicole intensity image current Nicole RI diff image

 


Nicole at 11/11/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 0 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 8.8% 8.0% 0.5% 0.6% 1.4% 1.4% 2.6% SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 2.2% 2.0% 0.1% 0.1% N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Nicole at 11/11/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 14 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 3.9% 1.5% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 1.1% 1.6% SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 1.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 1.6% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Nicole at 11/11/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 46 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 1.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 0.9% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A SHIPS-RII 1.7% 3.5% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% Logistic Regression 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Nicole at 11/11/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 60 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 1.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 2.0% 1.7% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 1.5% 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A SHIPS-RII 2.2% 5.4% 4.9% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% Logistic Regression 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% N/A
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Nicole at 11/10/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 78 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.7% SHIPS Consensus 2.1% 5.0% 3.0% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 3.8% 2.2% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 4.2% 11.3% 7.9% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% Logistic Regression 1.6% 3.7% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Nicole at 11/10/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 92 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 0.8% SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 3.1% 1.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 2.4% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 1.5% 8.6% 3.3% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 1.4% Logistic Regression 0.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Nicole at 11/10/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 104 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% SHIPS Consensus 2.7% 5.4% 3.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.0% 4.1% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 6.5% 13.2% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Logistic Regression 1.1% 2.9% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Nicole at 11/10/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 117 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% SHIPS Consensus 2.9% 5.4% 3.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.1% 4.1% 2.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 6.8% 12.2% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% Logistic Regression 1.4% 3.9% 1.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Nicole at 11/09/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 130 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.9% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% SHIPS Consensus 2.4% 5.5% 3.4% 3.0% 2.1% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.3% 4.4% 2.6% 2.2% 1.5% 2.3% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 5.9% 12.7% 8.6% 8.2% 5.9% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Logistic Regression 1.2% 3.8% 1.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Nicole at 11/09/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 122 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.9% 1.9% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.6% 5.3% 3.4% 3.0% 2.1% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.1% 4.4% 2.6% 2.2% 1.5% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 6.3% 12.0% 8.2% 8.2% 5.8% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.4% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.3% 3.9% 1.8% 0.8% 0.4% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Nicole at 11/09/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 133 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.6% 2.6% 1.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.5% 5.9% 3.7% 3.2% 2.2% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.2% 5.1% 3.1% 2.4% 1.7% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 8.4% 14.6% 9.4% 9.1% 6.5% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 4.8% 2.8% 1.7% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.6% 3.0% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Nicole at 11/09/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 115 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.8% 1.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.7% 5.6% 3.5% 3.0% 2.0% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.2% 4.6% 2.7% 2.2% 1.5% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 6.5% 13.6% 8.9% 8.5% 6.0% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 1.2% 3.0% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Nicole at 11/08/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 124 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.7% 5.8% 3.6% 2.9% 1.9% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.0% 4.6% 2.7% 2.1% 1.4% 2.4% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 5.3% 11.6% 7.9% 7.6% 5.2% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.0% 3.9% 2.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.7% 5.6% 2.7% 1.0% 0.4% 1.5% 0.4% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 4.0% 7.0% 5.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Nicole at 11/08/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 125 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.1% 4.6% 3.0% 2.3% 1.5% 2.6% 2.7% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 3.7% 2.3% 1.7% 1.1% 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 3.9% 8.7% 6.3% 6.2% 4.2% 7.0% 7.6% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.0% 5.0% 2.6% 1.5% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.7% 4.9% 2.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 9.0% 5.0% 3.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Nicole at 11/08/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 131 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.4% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 3.9% 2.7% 2.1% 1.3% 2.5% 2.5% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.1% 3.2% 2.1% 1.5% 0.9% 1.9% 2.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 2.6% 7.2% 5.6% 5.5% 3.7% 6.8% 7.3% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.7% 3.2% 1.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.4% 4.4% 2.4% 0.8% 0.2% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Nicole at 11/08/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 131 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% SHIPS Consensus 1.7% 4.6% 3.1% 0.4% 0.1% 2.8% 0.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.3% 3.7% 2.4% 0.3% 0.0% 2.1% 0.2% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 3.6% 9.2% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.6% 2.6% 1.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% Logistic Regression 1.4% 4.5% 2.7% 1.1% 0.3% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Nicole at 11/07/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 132 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% SHIPS Consensus 1.7% 3.9% 2.7% 0.2% 0.0% 2.6% 0.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.2% 3.1% 2.1% 0.1% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 3.9% 9.2% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 1.5% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 1.0% 2.4% 1.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Nicole at 11/07/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 137 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 2.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 2.7% 8.5% 5.4% 3.2% 0.2% 3.6% 3.5% 3.7%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.0% 7.0% 4.2% 2.4% 0.1% 2.7% 2.6% 2.8% SHIPS-RII 5.3% 13.8% 9.0% 7.8% 0.0% 9.0% 9.7% 10.9%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.1% 4.3% 1.8% 1.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.7% 0.1% Logistic Regression 2.5% 11.7% 7.1% 1.8% 0.5% 1.8% 0.7% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 6.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Nicole at 11/07/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 142 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.4% 1.9% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.5% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 2.7% 8.1% 5.1% 3.0% 1.9% 3.4% 3.4% 3.9%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.1% 6.5% 4.0% 2.2% 1.4% 2.6% 2.6% 2.9% SHIPS-RII 5.2% 13.9% 9.1% 7.7% 5.6% 8.9% 9.8% 11.7%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.7% 2.9% 2.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.6% 0.7% 0.6% Logistic Regression 2.5% 10.4% 6.1% 1.1% 0.3% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 4.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------