Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index

 

current Agatha intensity image current Agatha RI diff image

 


Agatha at 05/31/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 159 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Agatha at 05/31/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 160 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.0% 2.2% 1.5% 1.0% 0.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.4% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.3% 0.8% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 1.1% 0.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% Logistic Regression 0.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% N/A N/A N/A
Bayesian 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Agatha at 05/31/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 155 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 5.1% 4.8% 3.7% 3.3% 1.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% SHIPS Consensus 3.8% 7.8% 5.7% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.1% 7.0% 5.2% 1.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 9.2% 18.8% 15.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.5% 2.4% 1.8% 1.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% Logistic Regression 2.0% 4.5% 1.9% 0.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Agatha at 05/30/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 157 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 11.1% 5.3% 3.1% 2.8% 1.7% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% SHIPS Consensus 6.0% 9.1% 6.6% 5.2% 3.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 7.2% 8.1% 5.7% 4.5% 3.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 10.2% 18.2% 14.7% 12.9% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 6.0% 2.6% 1.5% 1.4% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Logistic Regression 7.1% 8.3% 4.7% 2.3% 2.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.6% 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Agatha at 05/30/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 168 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 15.1% 15.2% 11.6% 7.4% 4.0% 1.4% 0.2% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 8.1% 14.7% 11.7% 9.1% 5.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 9.8% 14.8% 11.6% 8.6% 5.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 12.3% 22.1% 19.2% 17.8% 11.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 10.0% 7.6% 5.8% 3.7% 2.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% Logistic Regression 11.0% 18.8% 13.7% 8.3% 5.1% 1.7% 0.7% 0.2%
Bayesian 1.1% 3.2% 2.1% 1.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Agatha at 05/30/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 175 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 29.3% 23.6% 34.6% 30.6% 16.3% 2.3% 0.5% 0.3% SHIPS Consensus 14.6% 28.1% 20.8% 15.6% 9.1% 7.5% 0.3% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 18.2% 27.0% 24.2% 19.3% 10.8% 6.2% 0.3% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 13.3% 23.1% 20.1% 18.8% 12.3% 13.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 18.1% 11.8% 17.3% 15.8% 8.6% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% Logistic Regression 25.0% 39.3% 29.1% 20.5% 13.1% 6.0% 0.8% 0.3%
Bayesian 5.5% 22.0% 13.2% 7.6% 1.8% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Agatha at 05/30/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 175 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 16.6% 16.1% 24.8% 22.5% 19.7% 2.8% 0.8% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 40.6% 52.3% 45.0% 36.9% 23.1% 23.1% 1.7% 0.5%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 34.6% 43.2% 39.9% 33.2% 22.2% 18.0% 1.4% 0.4% SHIPS-RII 24.2% 26.8% 22.7% 21.9% 13.8% 17.4% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 47.0% 59.4% 50.2% 39.1% 30.9% 29.1% 4.6% 1.5%
Bayesian 50.6% 70.7% 62.2% 49.6% 24.6% 22.8% 0.5% 0.0%
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
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Agatha at 05/29/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 176 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 35.7% 36.2% 44.5% 35.3% 28.5% 4.5% 2.6% 0.3% SHIPS Consensus 71.3% 66.6% 63.5% 56.1% 41.9% 32.9% 6.1% 1.5%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 62.3% 58.9% 58.7% 50.8% 38.5% 25.8% 5.2% 1.2% SHIPS-RII 62.1% 62.9% 52.6% 43.4% 35.6% 24.9% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 42.8% 26.6% 26.2% 20.6% 16.2% 2.2% 1.3% 0.1% Logistic Regression 75.2% 81.8% 77.4% 71.9% 58.7% 60.3% 17.6% 4.6%
Bayesian 76.5% 55.0% 60.4% 52.9% 31.4% 13.6% 0.6% 0.0%
DTOPS 50.0% 17.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Agatha at 05/29/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 183 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 27.4% 37.8% 55.0% 45.4% 43.1% 20.2% 6.6% 0.7% SHIPS Consensus 78.1% 84.8% 83.7% 80.0% 59.7% 67.4% 29.9% 8.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 65.3% 73.0% 76.5% 71.3% 55.5% 55.6% 24.0% 6.2% SHIPS-RII 79.3% 87.5% 83.0% 77.4% 61.6% 60.0% 32.4% 11.8%
AI-RI and DTOPS 34.7% 35.4% 38.0% 30.2% 27.0% 10.6% 3.3% 0.3% Logistic Regression 70.6% 87.1% 82.8% 78.7% 64.7% 71.0% 37.1% 11.6%
Bayesian 84.3% 79.7% 85.2% 83.8% 52.9% 71.3% 20.3% 0.9%
DTOPS 42.0% 33.0% 21.0% 15.0% 11.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Agatha at 05/29/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 182 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 23.2% 36.1% 35.1% 39.9% 31.9% 31.8% 6.6% 3.0% SHIPS Consensus 15.5% 49.4% 37.9% 25.2% 14.9% 40.4% 29.0% 10.3%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 17.4% 46.1% 37.1% 28.8% 19.1% 38.2% 23.4% 8.4% SHIPS-RII 25.8% 69.5% 53.4% 39.6% 26.8% 56.7% 41.7% 15.3%
AI-RI and DTOPS 20.6% 33.5% 26.0% 24.9% 20.9% 17.4% 3.3% 1.5% Logistic Regression 14.6% 52.7% 34.6% 24.9% 15.8% 44.2% 31.8% 9.3%
Bayesian 6.2% 26.1% 25.6% 11.1% 2.1% 20.4% 13.5% 6.3%
DTOPS 18.0% 31.0% 17.0% 10.0% 10.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Agatha at 05/29/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 176 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 28.9% 35.1% 42.1% 39.8% 28.3% 40.7% 26.1% 11.1% SHIPS Consensus 29.3% 69.8% 66.4% 49.4% 27.1% 65.6% 48.2% 15.8%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 29.1% 61.1% 60.3% 47.0% 27.3% 59.3% 42.6% 14.6% SHIPS-RII 34.1% 80.0% 68.5% 58.4% 46.9% 78.5% 68.2% 25.9%
AI-RI and DTOPS 27.4% 45.5% 39.5% 28.9% 22.6% 30.3% 14.5% 5.5% Logistic Regression 31.2% 71.3% 60.0% 49.5% 30.5% 73.6% 52.4% 17.5%
Bayesian 22.5% 58.0% 70.7% 40.3% 3.8% 44.6% 23.9% 4.0%
DTOPS 26.0% 56.0% 37.0% 18.0% 17.0% 20.0% 3.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Agatha at 05/28/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 178 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 27.2% 67.5% 59.6% 61.3% 42.2% 60.8% 47.4% 18.4% SHIPS Consensus 50.5% 82.1% 78.6% 67.6% 42.9% 75.0% 59.1% 22.5%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 44.6% 78.4% 73.8% 66.0% 42.7% 71.4% 56.1% 21.4% SHIPS-RII 44.7% 85.0% 76.9% 68.5% 53.1% 83.4% 69.1% 29.3%
AI-RI and DTOPS 13.7% 34.0% 29.9% 30.7% 21.1% 30.6% 23.8% 9.2% Logistic Regression 49.3% 80.5% 72.9% 64.7% 47.3% 81.3% 65.1% 30.9%
Bayesian 57.5% 80.7% 86.1% 69.6% 28.2% 60.3% 43.2% 7.3%
DTOPS 20.0% 51.0% 32.0% 26.0% 14.0% 45.0% 20.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Agatha at 05/28/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 182 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 18.5% 37.4% 48.0% 43.1% 23.5% 55.1% 46.5% 36.5% SHIPS Consensus 23.4% 62.8% 60.6% 40.4% 22.6% 55.7% 55.1% 41.5%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 22.2% 56.4% 57.4% 41.1% 22.8% 55.5% 52.9% 40.2% SHIPS-RII 22.1% 70.1% 64.1% 54.6% 45.6% 74.3% 70.9% 53.1%
AI-RI and DTOPS 9.2% 18.9% 24.1% 21.6% 11.8% 27.7% 23.3% 18.2% Logistic Regression 13.1% 55.3% 46.9% 32.8% 14.5% 57.7% 66.7% 38.3%
Bayesian 35.1% 63.1% 70.8% 33.9% 7.7% 35.2% 27.8% 33.0%
DTOPS 9.0% 46.0% 37.0% 23.0% 21.0% 35.0% 25.0% 5.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


One at 05/28/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 179 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 11.9% 44.1% 28.7% 23.6% 15.1% 45.6% 34.7% 41.3% SHIPS Consensus 15.3% 50.9% 47.5% 30.7% 4.9% 50.2% 58.7% 46.7%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 14.4% 49.1% 42.7% 28.9% 7.4% 49.0% 52.7% 45.3% SHIPS-RII 14.1% 63.3% 55.2% 43.9% 0.0% 65.5% 68.9% 66.5%
AI-RI and DTOPS 5.9% 22.1% 14.4% 11.8% 7.5% 22.8% 17.4% 20.7% Logistic Regression 14.7% 62.0% 55.9% 40.6% 13.9% 69.3% 77.0% 48.7%
Bayesian 17.2% 27.3% 31.2% 7.5% 0.7% 15.8% 30.3% 24.9%
DTOPS 2.0% 21.0% 11.0% 6.0% 5.0% 16.0% 28.0% 15.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


One at 05/28/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 174 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 9.5% 45.2% 30.4% 22.6% 10.1% 39.7% 27.0% 46.4% SHIPS Consensus 13.5% 65.1% 57.5% 43.3% 11.5% 68.6% 65.2% 59.5%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 12.5% 60.1% 50.7% 38.1% 11.1% 61.4% 55.6% 56.2% SHIPS-RII 16.7% 75.6% 64.0% 51.8% 0.0% 81.8% 87.2% 80.3%
AI-RI and DTOPS 4.7% 22.7% 15.2% 11.3% 5.0% 20.0% 13.6% 23.3% Logistic Regression 20.6% 77.7% 69.0% 59.6% 31.4% 88.0% 87.6% 63.7%
Bayesian 3.2% 42.0% 39.4% 18.6% 3.1% 36.1% 20.7% 34.4%
DTOPS 4.0% 38.0% 16.0% 13.0% 6.0% 32.0% 30.0% 32.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------