Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index

 

current Twoe intensity image current Twoe RI diff image

 


Blas at 06/20/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 66 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 1.6% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Blas at 06/20/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 65 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% SHIPS-RII 2.6% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Blas at 06/20/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 65 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% SHIPS Consensus 1.3% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 3.9% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Blas at 06/19/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 65 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 2.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 2.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 4.0% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Blas at 06/19/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 71 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.3% 2.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 1.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 3.8% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Blas at 06/19/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 67 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 2.7% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 2.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 2.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 2.7% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 1.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Blas at 06/19/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 66 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 2.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 2.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 1.8% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Blas at 06/18/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 71 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 2.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 1.6% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Blas at 06/18/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 80 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 1.6% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Blas at 06/18/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 84 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 2.2% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Blas at 06/18/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 79 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 1.6% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Blas at 06/17/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 91 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 3.2% 2.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.6% 3.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.7% 3.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 7.6% 10.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 4.1% 1.3% 0.3% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Blas at 06/17/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 122 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.3% 1.8% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.6% 3.8% 3.2% 2.7% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.2% 3.2% 2.5% 2.1% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 7.5% 10.7% 9.5% 8.1% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.6% 0.9% 0.2% 1.1% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Blas at 06/17/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 153 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 10.1% 10.5% 2.8% 1.9% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 3.2% 4.8% 3.8% 3.3% 2.1% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.9% 6.1% 3.5% 2.9% 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 9.1% 13.1% 11.1% 9.7% 6.2% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 7.5% 5.2% 1.4% 1.4% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.6% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Blas at 06/16/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 158 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 8.2% 11.0% 4.2% 1.5% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 3.7% 5.5% 4.2% 3.7% 2.3% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.8% 6.8% 4.2% 3.1% 1.9% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 10.2% 14.8% 12.2% 10.9% 6.9% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 7.6% 6.0% 2.6% 1.7% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.8% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 7.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Blas at 06/16/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 162 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 6.8% 11.2% 1.3% 0.7% 1.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 3.2% 5.7% 4.4% 3.9% 2.4% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.1% 7.1% 3.6% 3.0% 2.2% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 8.9% 14.9% 12.6% 11.4% 7.2% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 7.9% 8.6% 2.6% 2.3% 2.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.7% 2.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 9.0% 6.0% 4.0% 4.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Blas at 06/16/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 159 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.8% 10.3% 2.5% 1.2% 1.3% 0.8% 0.1% 0.4% SHIPS Consensus 0.2% 6.1% 4.7% 4.2% 2.6% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 7.1% 4.1% 3.4% 2.2% 2.5% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 15.8% 13.5% 12.4% 7.7% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 9.4% 10.1% 6.2% 5.6% 6.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.2% Logistic Regression 0.4% 2.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 16.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Blas at 06/16/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 157 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 4.3% 10.9% 2.4% 2.3% 3.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.3% SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 9.9% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.7% 10.1% 1.0% 0.8% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 20.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 17.1% 17.4% 12.2% 10.1% 10.4% 1.4% 0.1% 0.1% Logistic Regression 2.6% 7.9% 1.9% 1.1% 0.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 30.0% 24.0% 22.0% 18.0% 17.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Blas at 06/15/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 160 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 8.4% 10.6% 2.6% 5.4% 7.5% 2.1% 1.3% 0.5% SHIPS Consensus 3.1% 7.2% 1.4% 1.0% 0.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.4% 8.0% 1.7% 2.1% 2.2% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 22.2% 20.8% 12.8% 11.2% 10.2% 2.5% 0.6% 0.2% Logistic Regression 9.0% 15.2% 4.0% 2.8% 1.4% 1.8% 0.3% 0.3%
Bayesian 0.3% 6.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 36.0% 31.0% 23.0% 17.0% 13.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Blas at 06/15/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 164 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 21.2% 41.1% 32.8% 31.8% 18.6% 22.5% 4.7% 1.0% SHIPS Consensus 10.0% 20.3% 2.3% 1.5% 0.9% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 12.8% 25.5% 9.9% 9.1% 5.3% 6.6% 1.5% 0.3% SHIPS-RII 15.6% 38.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 32.6% 54.0% 43.4% 36.9% 24.3% 25.7% 6.8% 0.5% Logistic Regression 10.0% 19.8% 6.8% 4.6% 2.4% 4.0% 1.5% 0.5%
Bayesian 4.5% 2.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 44.0% 67.0% 54.0% 42.0% 30.0% 29.0% 9.0% 0.0%
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Blas at 06/15/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 157 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 16.4% 19.5% 11.2% 6.3% 9.0% 7.5% 5.7% 3.0% SHIPS Consensus 7.6% 17.3% 11.4% 8.5% 4.4% 7.2% 5.7% 0.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 9.7% 17.8% 11.3% 7.9% 5.5% 7.2% 5.7% 0.9% SHIPS-RII 13.4% 29.1% 21.7% 20.6% 12.0% 18.3% 13.9% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 22.2% 36.2% 28.6% 20.1% 16.5% 22.2% 9.3% 1.5% Logistic Regression 5.4% 12.5% 4.8% 2.7% 0.8% 2.8% 3.1% 0.6%
Bayesian 3.9% 10.2% 7.7% 2.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
DTOPS 28.0% 53.0% 46.0% 34.0% 24.0% 37.0% 13.0% 0.0%
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Blas at 06/15/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 157 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 14.0% 23.4% 9.1% 10.2% 7.5% 6.2% 6.7% 9.0% SHIPS Consensus 5.2% 15.8% 9.7% 7.4% 4.0% 7.8% 7.4% 0.5%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 7.4% 17.6% 9.5% 8.1% 4.8% 7.3% 7.2% 2.6% SHIPS-RII 10.3% 23.4% 19.0% 17.6% 10.3% 17.2% 15.1% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 13.0% 34.2% 19.0% 13.6% 11.2% 18.6% 16.3% 6.0% Logistic Regression 4.9% 17.7% 6.7% 3.7% 1.3% 5.2% 6.9% 1.4%
Bayesian 0.5% 6.3% 3.5% 1.0% 0.3% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0%
DTOPS 12.0% 45.0% 29.0% 17.0% 15.0% 31.0% 26.0% 3.0%
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Blas at 06/14/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 160 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.9% 10.7% 9.7% 4.1% 1.5% 1.7% 14.4% 9.4% SHIPS Consensus 7.0% 17.1% 10.9% 7.8% 3.9% 8.6% 8.0% 0.8%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.9% 15.5% 10.5% 6.8% 3.3% 6.8% 9.5% 2.9% SHIPS-RII 12.0% 23.1% 19.8% 18.7% 10.7% 18.7% 15.5% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 5.9% 22.8% 12.3% 6.0% 3.2% 12.3% 15.7% 6.2% Logistic Regression 6.3% 15.1% 6.5% 3.1% 0.8% 5.8% 7.7% 2.5%
Bayesian 2.7% 13.2% 6.3% 1.6% 0.2% 1.4% 0.6% 0.0%
DTOPS 9.0% 35.0% 15.0% 8.0% 5.0% 23.0% 17.0% 3.0%
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Blas at 06/14/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 169 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 11.4% 34.3% 18.5% 7.7% 3.7% 8.0% 11.6% 13.9% SHIPS Consensus 11.9% 35.5% 20.5% 12.7% 7.8% 14.9% 15.4% 3.8%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 11.7% 35.2% 20.0% 11.4% 6.8% 13.1% 14.4% 6.3% SHIPS-RII 12.9% 25.6% 21.0% 19.7% 11.8% 18.6% 16.1% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 9.7% 31.1% 19.2% 11.3% 6.3% 14.5% 14.3% 10.9% Logistic Regression 18.5% 39.8% 21.1% 12.9% 7.7% 13.8% 26.4% 10.6%
Bayesian 4.2% 41.2% 19.4% 5.5% 4.0% 12.2% 3.8% 0.8%
DTOPS 8.0% 28.0% 20.0% 15.0% 9.0% 21.0% 17.0% 8.0%
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Twoe at 06/14/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 168 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 8.2% 24.8% 16.5% 7.9% 2.7% 8.6% 10.5% 9.1% SHIPS Consensus 5.8% 20.4% 11.7% 8.2% 1.6% 9.0% 10.2% 7.3%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 6.3% 21.5% 12.9% 8.1% 1.8% 8.9% 10.2% 7.7% SHIPS-RII 8.2% 18.9% 16.6% 15.3% 0.0% 15.1% 13.7% 12.7%
AI-RI and DTOPS 4.1% 17.4% 10.2% 4.9% 2.3% 8.8% 13.2% 10.5% Logistic Regression 8.8% 33.7% 16.5% 8.8% 4.7% 10.8% 15.7% 8.3%
Bayesian 0.3% 8.6% 2.0% 0.4% 0.1% 1.1% 1.1% 0.8%
DTOPS 0.0% 10.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 9.0% 16.0% 12.0%
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