Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index

 

current Three intensity image current Three RI diff image

 


Celia at 06/28/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 0 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.9% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Celia at 06/28/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 0 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% SHIPS-RII 1.8% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Celia at 06/28/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 0 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.2% SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% SHIPS-RII 2.7% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Celia at 06/28/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 0 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.4% SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% SHIPS-RII 1.7% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.7% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Celia at 06/27/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 0 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% SHIPS-RII 2.9% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Celia at 06/27/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 13 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 4.1% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Celia at 06/27/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 37 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.8% 5.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.1% 3.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 8.0% 15.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.4% 0.5% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Celia at 06/27/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 52 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.5% 6.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.7% 4.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 9.7% 17.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.8% 1.0% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Celia at 06/26/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 62 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.8% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 5.3% 10.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Celia at 06/26/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 71 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.8% 4.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 3.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 5.2% 11.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.3% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Celia at 06/26/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 64 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.9% 4.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 3.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 5.5% 12.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 1.1% 0.6% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.3% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Celia at 06/26/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 65 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.7% 6.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.0% 4.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 7.7% 16.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.1% 1.7% 1.1% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.5% 1.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Celia at 06/25/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 68 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.6% 6.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.9% 4.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 7.6% 16.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.0% 1.6% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.3% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Celia at 06/25/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 73 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.2% 6.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.5% 5.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 9.3% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.8% 3.2% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 3.0% 6.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Celia at 06/25/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 80 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.4% 7.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.5% 5.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 9.8% 19.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 3.0% 6.9% 5.1% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 0.5% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.4% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 6.0% 13.0% 10.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 1.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Celia at 06/25/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 93 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.4% 2.6% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 5.2% 12.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.2% 9.6% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 12.5% 28.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 10.7% 27.8% 18.6% 9.6% 10.5% 8.5% 3.5% 0.0% Logistic Regression 3.1% 8.1% 2.8% 1.4% 0.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 20.0% 53.0% 36.0% 19.0% 21.0% 17.0% 7.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Celia at 06/24/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 125 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 3.1% 5.4% 2.3% 0.9% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 15.3% 23.8% 4.9% 3.3% 1.1% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 12.2% 19.2% 4.2% 2.7% 0.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 25.6% 42.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 16.0% 26.2% 19.6% 12.9% 10.7% 7.6% 2.5% 0.0% Logistic Regression 18.6% 28.5% 14.0% 9.8% 3.1% 3.2% 0.9% 0.1%
Bayesian 1.6% 0.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 29.0% 47.0% 37.0% 25.0% 21.0% 15.0% 5.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Celia at 06/24/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 131 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 14.4% 8.6% 3.6% 1.8% 0.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 11.0% 21.5% 4.6% 2.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 11.8% 18.3% 4.3% 2.6% 0.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 14.9% 37.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 17.7% 27.3% 19.3% 12.4% 9.8% 8.9% 4.1% 0.1% Logistic Regression 16.0% 26.3% 13.0% 8.5% 2.6% 2.8% 0.8% 0.2%
Bayesian 2.2% 0.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 21.0% 46.0% 35.0% 23.0% 19.0% 17.0% 8.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Celia at 06/24/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 133 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.6% 6.5% 3.2% 0.9% 0.5% 0.5% 0.6% 0.4% SHIPS Consensus 4.7% 10.8% 1.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.1% 9.7% 1.7% 0.7% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 10.8% 22.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 10.3% 24.7% 18.6% 11.4% 9.7% 13.2% 6.3% 0.2% Logistic Regression 3.1% 9.8% 3.6% 2.0% 0.7% 1.1% 0.8% 0.2%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 18.0% 43.0% 34.0% 22.0% 19.0% 26.0% 12.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Celia at 06/24/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 138 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.6% 18.5% 6.2% 2.0% 1.1% 1.3% 0.2% 0.9% SHIPS Consensus 4.2% 11.8% 1.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.8% 13.4% 2.5% 1.1% 0.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 9.8% 23.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 6.3% 26.2% 12.6% 6.0% 5.5% 7.1% 4.6% 0.4% Logistic Regression 2.8% 12.4% 3.9% 2.4% 0.8% 1.9% 1.1% 0.2%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 10.0% 34.0% 19.0% 10.0% 10.0% 13.0% 9.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Celia at 06/23/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 146 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 4.5% 21.4% 11.3% 5.4% 3.0% 2.6% 0.8% 1.6% SHIPS Consensus 3.9% 13.6% 2.3% 1.3% 0.4% 1.2% 0.7% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.0% 15.5% 4.5% 2.3% 1.0% 1.5% 0.7% 0.5% SHIPS-RII 8.6% 21.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 5.7% 30.7% 18.1% 9.7% 8.0% 9.3% 7.4% 0.8% Logistic Regression 2.9% 19.0% 6.9% 3.7% 1.2% 3.6% 2.0% 0.4%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 7.0% 40.0% 25.0% 14.0% 13.0% 16.0% 14.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Celia at 06/23/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 154 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.9% 27.0% 5.3% 3.6% 4.7% 7.5% 0.8% 1.8% SHIPS Consensus 2.7% 7.4% 5.6% 4.9% 2.7% 0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.7% 12.3% 5.5% 4.6% 3.2% 2.1% 0.5% 0.5% SHIPS-RII 7.4% 17.6% 15.5% 14.2% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 5.4% 30.5% 13.1% 7.8% 7.8% 12.2% 7.9% 1.4% Logistic Regression 0.7% 4.5% 1.2% 0.6% 0.2% 1.2% 1.5% 0.3%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 8.0% 34.0% 21.0% 12.0% 11.0% 17.0% 15.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Celia at 06/23/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 156 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 4.5% 0.8% 0.7% 0.3% 0.8% 0.6% 2.5% SHIPS Consensus 2.9% 7.5% 6.0% 5.5% 3.1% 5.9% 5.2% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.2% 6.7% 4.7% 4.3% 2.4% 4.6% 4.0% 0.6% SHIPS-RII 8.5% 21.2% 17.7% 16.3% 9.4% 17.1% 14.8% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.1% 9.7% 3.9% 2.8% 2.1% 3.9% 4.3% 1.2% Logistic Regression 0.2% 1.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.7% 0.7% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 4.0% 15.0% 7.0% 5.0% 4.0% 7.0% 8.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Celia at 06/23/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 159 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 5.5% 1.6% 0.3% 0.3% 1.2% 2.8% 8.4% SHIPS Consensus 2.6% 7.9% 6.5% 5.9% 0.0% 6.4% 6.9% 0.3%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.0% 7.2% 5.2% 4.4% 0.1% 5.0% 5.9% 2.3% SHIPS-RII 7.6% 20.5% 18.0% 17.1% 0.0% 17.5% 16.1% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.6% 9.2% 4.8% 3.1% 2.6% 5.6% 6.9% 5.2% Logistic Regression 0.2% 2.2% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 1.6% 4.7% 0.8%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 3.0% 13.0% 8.0% 6.0% 5.0% 10.0% 11.0% 2.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Celia at 06/22/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 160 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 8.7% 1.5% 0.8% 0.3% 1.6% 2.3% 6.7% SHIPS Consensus 2.4% 7.6% 6.2% 5.7% 0.1% 6.5% 7.7% 0.4%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.3% 6.9% 4.4% 3.9% 0.1% 4.7% 6.2% 1.9% SHIPS-RII 6.7% 18.8% 17.1% 16.4% 0.0% 17.2% 15.9% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.1% 10.3% 3.2% 2.4% 1.6% 5.3% 11.6% 7.8% Logistic Regression 0.3% 3.6% 1.4% 0.6% 0.2% 2.2% 7.2% 1.2%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 4.0% 18.0% 10.0% 7.0% 6.0% 14.0% 20.0% 6.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Celia at 06/22/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 161 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.3% 7.0% 2.8% 5.8% 2.4% 6.5% 1.1% 4.9% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 7.4% 5.3% 4.6% 0.1% 6.3% 7.9% 4.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 7.3% 4.6% 4.9% 0.6% 6.3% 6.2% 4.3% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 16.5% 14.2% 13.0% 0.0% 15.2% 14.4% 10.9%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.1% 10.5% 3.9% 4.9% 2.7% 6.7% 11.0% 6.9% Logistic Regression 0.3% 5.6% 1.7% 0.9% 0.3% 3.6% 9.4% 1.6%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 3.0% 14.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 7.0% 21.0% 9.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Celia at 06/22/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 159 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 2.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.7% 1.7% 7.3% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 6.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 5.8% 6.0% 4.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 5.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 4.5% 4.9% 4.8% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 17.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.5% 14.8% 10.8%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.1% 7.6% 2.6% 1.6% 1.5% 2.3% 5.3% 9.1% Logistic Regression 0.1% 2.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 1.8% 3.1% 1.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
DTOPS 2.0% 13.0% 5.0% 3.0% 3.0% 4.0% 9.0% 11.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Celia at 06/22/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 155 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 4.6% 1.6% 1.9% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 18.3% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 6.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 7.0% 5.4%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 5.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.5% 5.3% 8.6% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 16.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.5% 12.9%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.1% 6.3% 2.8% 2.9% 1.2% 1.7% 2.7% 14.6% Logistic Regression 0.2% 1.8% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 1.6% 5.5% 2.4%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1%
DTOPS 2.0% 8.0% 4.0% 4.0% 2.0% 3.0% 5.0% 11.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Celia at 06/21/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 151 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.3% 6.7% 1.2% 0.8% 0.9% 2.9% 2.9% 18.0% SHIPS Consensus 4.6% 11.1% 0.8% 0.5% 0.1% 1.1% 6.2% 7.8%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.7% 10.0% 0.9% 0.5% 0.3% 1.5% 5.3% 10.3% SHIPS-RII 9.9% 22.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.7%
AI-RI and DTOPS 3.1% 17.3% 9.1% 6.4% 4.9% 8.9% 8.4% 20.5% Logistic Regression 1.6% 7.7% 2.5% 1.3% 0.3% 3.3% 18.5% 10.0%
Bayesian 2.3% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.8%
DTOPS 5.0% 26.0% 15.0% 10.0% 8.0% 14.0% 13.0% 26.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Celia at 06/21/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 147 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.7% 11.9% 3.2% 3.5% 1.0% 2.4% 0.9% 12.3% SHIPS Consensus 3.0% 8.1% 6.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 2.5% 8.4%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.4% 9.0% 5.3% 0.9% 0.2% 0.8% 2.0% 9.3% SHIPS-RII 8.4% 21.8% 17.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.9%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.3% 13.9% 4.6% 3.7% 2.0% 4.7% 6.4% 10.6% Logistic Regression 0.2% 1.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.8% 7.4% 8.1%
Bayesian 0.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
DTOPS 2.0% 16.0% 6.0% 4.0% 3.0% 7.0% 12.0% 9.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Celia at 06/21/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 144 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 2.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 0.8% 0.3% 4.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.3% 5.2% 4.5% 4.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.9% 7.5%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 4.6% 3.5% 3.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.7% 6.6% SHIPS-RII 3.7% 14.6% 13.1% 11.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 18.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 3.9% 0.8% 0.6% 0.6% 1.4% 2.6% 4.5% Logistic Regression 0.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 2.6% 4.2%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3%
DTOPS 0.0% 5.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 5.0% 5.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Celia at 06/21/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 139 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.5% 2.3% 5.6% SHIPS Consensus 1.9% 5.4% 4.8% 4.4% 0.0% 4.9% 1.5% 9.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 4.2% 3.6% 3.4% 0.0% 3.8% 1.7% 8.2% SHIPS-RII 4.5% 14.1% 13.8% 13.0% 0.0% 13.9% 0.0% 17.7%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 2.3% 0.6% 0.6% 0.1% 1.2% 4.6% 7.8% Logistic Regression 0.3% 1.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.8% 4.2% 7.5%
Bayesian 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 2.1%
DTOPS 0.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 7.0% 10.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Celia at 06/20/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 141 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 1.2% 0.3% 0.5% 0.6% 0.9% 3.7% 9.9% SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 4.6% 4.0% 3.6% 0.0% 4.3% 0.7% 7.5%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.2% 3.7% 3.0% 2.8% 0.1% 3.4% 1.4% 8.1% SHIPS-RII 4.2% 12.9% 11.7% 10.7% 0.0% 12.6% 0.0% 14.7%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 1.6% 0.6% 0.7% 0.3% 0.4% 2.8% 11.4% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 2.0% 5.2%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.7%
DTOPS 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 13.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Celia at 06/20/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 147 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 4.7% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 4.9% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 3.9% 0.2% 0.9%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 3.9% 2.6% 0.1% 0.0% 2.9% 0.2% 1.8% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 13.8% 10.4% 0.0% 0.0% 11.4% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% 8.3% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.5% 2.6%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 12.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Celia at 06/20/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 163 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 3.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 2.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.8% 3.4%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 2.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.6% 3.3% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 5.5% Logistic Regression 0.1% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 2.4% 9.9%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 8.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Celia at 06/20/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 160 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 1.7% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 3.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.8% 4.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 2.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.6% 3.4% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 1.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 1.0% 4.8% Logistic Regression 0.1% 2.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.8% 2.4% 11.5%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4%
DTOPS 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 8.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Celia at 06/19/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 159 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.6% 2.6% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 1.5% 6.5%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 1.2% 5.5% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.8% 3.8% Logistic Regression 0.1% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 4.4% 19.4%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
DTOPS 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 5.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Celia at 06/19/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 165 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.4% 1.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.5% 0.6% 4.6% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 3.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 1.3% 5.6%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 3.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 1.6% 6.5% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.2% 1.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.8% 4.8% Logistic Regression 0.2% 1.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.6% 4.0% 16.7%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
DTOPS 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 5.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Celia at 06/19/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 162 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 1.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.7% 0.6% 3.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 3.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.7% 2.6%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 3.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.4% 2.1% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 1.7% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.8% 2.5% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 2.0% 7.7%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Celia at 06/19/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 157 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 1.2% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.7%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.8% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 13.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 1.6% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.5% 2.1%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Celia at 06/18/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 155 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 1.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 3.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.7%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.8% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.5% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.5% 2.1%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Celia at 06/18/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 151 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 12.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 1.1%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Celia at 06/18/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 164 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 1.0% 0.5% 0.7% 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% 2.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 4.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 1.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 3.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 1.3% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 11.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 1.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 1.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.7% 3.1%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Celia at 06/17/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 149 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.9% 1.5% 1.2% 1.0% 0.4% 0.5% 0.7% 2.3% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 5.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.8% 1.8%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.2% 4.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.7% 1.9% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 13.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.4% 1.2% 0.6% 1.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 1.1% Logistic Regression 0.2% 1.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.8% 2.3% 5.4%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Three at 06/17/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 157 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.0% 7.9% 2.2% 0.9% 0.6% 1.1% 1.2% 1.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.6% 4.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.6% 2.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 5.6% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 0.7% 1.8% SHIPS-RII 4.1% 11.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.0% 4.4% 1.6% 0.9% 0.8% 0.5% 0.6% 0.5% Logistic Regression 0.7% 3.3% 1.1% 0.6% 0.1% 1.1% 1.7% 6.2%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Three at 06/17/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 154 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 4.2% 6.3% 2.8% 1.6% 0.7% 1.7% 0.5% 2.8% SHIPS Consensus 3.3% 9.7% 5.9% 4.6% 0.1% 1.4% 0.8% 2.3%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.4% 8.8% 5.1% 3.8% 0.2% 1.4% 0.7% 2.4% SHIPS-RII 6.0% 14.4% 12.0% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.6% 5.6% 2.4% 1.8% 0.8% 1.3% 1.2% 1.9% Logistic Regression 3.7% 14.6% 5.8% 3.6% 0.4% 4.2% 2.3% 7.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 5.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Three at 06/17/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 151 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 10.1% 30.1% 9.3% 6.9% 2.2% 3.7% 1.1% 6.7% SHIPS Consensus 5.7% 17.5% 11.2% 9.1% 0.6% 4.3% 5.7% 8.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 6.8% 20.6% 10.7% 8.5% 0.9% 4.1% 4.5% 7.7% SHIPS-RII 9.4% 21.5% 17.2% 15.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 6.0% 20.0% 7.1% 4.9% 2.1% 2.8% 1.5% 5.3% Logistic Regression 7.6% 30.4% 15.9% 11.6% 1.7% 12.7% 17.0% 24.4%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 10.0% 5.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 4.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Three at 06/16/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 150 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 16.3% 42.4% 29.8% 35.1% 6.0% 16.2% 10.0% 18.1% SHIPS Consensus 5.2% 16.9% 6.2% 3.6% 0.4% 4.9% 5.9% 8.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 7.9% 23.2% 12.0% 11.5% 1.8% 7.7% 6.9% 10.5% SHIPS-RII 8.7% 21.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 9.1% 26.2% 16.9% 19.0% 4.0% 8.6% 5.5% 9.0% Logistic Regression 6.3% 26.2% 16.0% 10.1% 1.3% 14.3% 17.5% 23.6%
Bayesian 0.5% 3.2% 2.5% 0.8% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.3%
DTOPS 2.0% 10.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------