Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index

 

current Bonnie intensity image current Bonnie RI diff image

 


Bonnie at 07/09/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 17 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Bonnie at 07/09/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 20 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Bonnie at 07/09/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 21 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.9% SHIPS Consensus 2.0% 4.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% SHIPS-RII 5.8% 12.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Bonnie at 07/09/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 27 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 3.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.1% 2.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% SHIPS-RII 4.4% 11.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Bonnie at 07/08/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 40 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 4.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.1% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 4.5% 12.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Bonnie at 07/08/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 52 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 4.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 12.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Bonnie at 07/08/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 66 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Bonnie at 07/08/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 78 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 4.2% 5.9% 1.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.2% 4.5% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 11.9% 17.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.8% 0.6% 3.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Bonnie at 07/07/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 90 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.8% 0.8% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 4.7% 6.1% 1.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.9% 4.7% 1.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 12.0% 17.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.9% 0.4% 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.0% 1.1% 4.1% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 5.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Bonnie at 07/07/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 94 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.9% 4.0% 1.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.9% 6.1% 1.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.6% 5.6% 1.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 10.0% 16.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 1.8% 1.8% 4.4% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Bonnie at 07/07/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 85 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 2.9% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.4% 4.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.8% 3.9% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 6.9% 12.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.1% 1.4% 0.8% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.3% 0.6% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Bonnie at 07/07/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 86 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 1.9% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.2% 4.6% 3.3% 2.5% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.7% 3.9% 2.6% 1.8% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 6.4% 13.4% 9.6% 7.4% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.6% 0.9% 0.3% 0.5% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.3% 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Bonnie at 07/06/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 92 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.4% 6.2% 3.2% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.9% 7.5% 5.6% 4.3% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.5% 7.1% 5.0% 3.3% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 9.5% 19.7% 14.5% 12.3% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 4.7% 8.1% 3.1% 1.3% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.2% 2.7% 2.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 7.0% 10.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Bonnie at 07/06/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 123 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 8.4% 6.4% 3.9% 1.7% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.6% 5.7% 5.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.0% 5.8% 4.7% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 6.9% 14.7% 14.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 6.2% 8.7% 4.9% 2.8% 3.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.8% 2.3% 1.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 4.0% 11.0% 6.0% 4.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Bonnie at 07/06/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 130 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.7% 5.2% 1.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.9% 5.1% 3.5% 2.6% 2.5% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.1% 5.1% 3.0% 2.0% 1.9% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 5.5% 14.6% 10.1% 7.8% 7.5% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 3.3% 5.6% 2.8% 1.6% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 4.0% 6.0% 4.0% 3.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Bonnie at 07/06/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 133 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 3.3% 5.7% 4.6% 1.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.1% 5.6% 3.8% 2.9% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.4% 5.6% 3.9% 2.5% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 5.9% 15.8% 10.7% 8.5% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.1% 6.3% 3.8% 1.8% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.5% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Bonnie at 07/05/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 133 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 6.9% 4.6% 4.7% 3.6% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.7% 5.7% 4.6% 4.0% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.5% 5.4% 4.6% 3.9% 2.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 8.5% 13.5% 12.6% 11.4% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 5.4% 3.8% 2.8% 2.3% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.4% 3.2% 1.2% 0.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 4.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Bonnie at 07/05/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 138 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.9% 2.5% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 3.0% 4.4% 3.7% 3.2% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.9% 3.9% 3.0% 2.7% 2.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 7.4% 11.0% 10.6% 9.4% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 4.9% 2.7% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.4% 1.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 7.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Bonnie at 07/05/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 141 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 6.9% 8.0% 5.6% 4.5% 6.4% 1.5% 0.3% 0.3% SHIPS Consensus 3.1% 5.0% 4.2% 3.8% 2.5% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.0% 5.7% 4.5% 3.9% 3.5% 2.4% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 7.9% 12.3% 12.0% 11.0% 7.4% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 9.9% 6.5% 5.8% 5.7% 5.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% Logistic Regression 1.2% 1.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 13.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Bonnie at 07/05/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 146 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 4.6% 9.7% 7.8% 5.0% 6.4% 2.9% 0.9% 0.7% SHIPS Consensus 5.1% 7.8% 5.7% 5.2% 3.4% 3.5% 0.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.7% 8.5% 6.3% 5.1% 4.1% 3.5% 2.1% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 11.8% 16.5% 15.1% 14.3% 9.2% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 9.3% 8.3% 7.9% 7.5% 6.7% 1.4% 0.4% 0.3% Logistic Regression 3.3% 4.6% 1.8% 1.2% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.2% 2.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 14.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Bonnie at 07/04/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 146 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 5.9% 2.2% 3.2% 2.4% 1.9% 1.9% 4.2% 0.6% SHIPS Consensus 7.6% 12.1% 7.4% 6.2% 4.0% 4.3% 2.9% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 7.1% 9.6% 6.3% 5.2% 3.4% 3.7% 3.2% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 13.9% 20.1% 17.3% 16.5% 10.5% 12.0% 8.1% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 13.9% 6.6% 7.1% 7.2% 4.9% 0.9% 2.1% 0.3% Logistic Regression 6.3% 6.6% 2.7% 1.7% 1.0% 0.6% 0.5% 0.1%
Bayesian 2.5% 9.5% 2.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 22.0% 11.0% 11.0% 12.0% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Bonnie at 07/04/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 151 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 10.2% 17.5% 7.8% 4.9% 6.4% 6.8% 3.0% 2.2% SHIPS Consensus 4.5% 8.5% 6.4% 5.8% 3.6% 4.4% 3.1% 1.9%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.9% 10.7% 6.7% 5.5% 4.2% 5.0% 3.1% 1.9% SHIPS-RII 11.6% 18.6% 17.3% 16.6% 10.5% 13.0% 8.9% 5.6%
AI-RI and DTOPS 14.1% 14.2% 8.9% 7.9% 7.2% 4.4% 1.5% 1.1% Logistic Regression 1.2% 1.9% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.5% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.7% 5.0% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 18.0% 11.0% 10.0% 11.0% 8.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Bonnie at 07/04/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 133 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 6.1% 19.8% 19.5% 14.5% 16.8% 15.4% 2.4% 4.0% SHIPS Consensus 11.1% 17.9% 12.2% 9.7% 5.4% 6.8% 4.4% 2.6%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 9.8% 18.3% 14.0% 10.8% 8.2% 9.0% 3.9% 2.9% SHIPS-RII 22.2% 29.3% 23.4% 23.0% 14.2% 18.1% 12.4% 7.7%
AI-RI and DTOPS 19.5% 26.4% 24.7% 20.2% 16.9% 12.7% 1.7% 2.0% Logistic Regression 5.7% 10.9% 5.5% 3.2% 1.0% 1.5% 0.7% 0.1%
Bayesian 5.3% 13.5% 7.7% 2.9% 0.9% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0%
DTOPS 33.0% 33.0% 30.0% 26.0% 17.0% 10.0% 1.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Bonnie at 07/04/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 132 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 40.5% 47.7% 39.2% 32.5% 30.8% 18.3% 5.7% 8.7% SHIPS Consensus 26.4% 34.7% 27.7% 19.0% 8.4% 9.7% 5.6% 3.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 29.9% 37.9% 30.5% 22.4% 13.9% 11.8% 5.6% 4.5% SHIPS-RII 45.8% 53.1% 40.7% 30.8% 22.4% 20.8% 14.4% 9.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 38.7% 56.8% 49.1% 42.2% 33.9% 18.6% 3.3% 4.3% Logistic Regression 16.0% 22.3% 12.1% 8.4% 2.0% 4.5% 2.3% 0.5%
Bayesian 17.3% 28.7% 30.3% 18.0% 0.7% 3.9% 0.2% 0.0%
DTOPS 37.0% 66.0% 59.0% 52.0% 37.0% 19.0% 1.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Bonnie at 07/03/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 129 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 35.8% 37.1% 27.5% 27.4% 17.8% 20.4% 11.2% 8.7% SHIPS Consensus 38.7% 54.8% 43.7% 34.8% 13.7% 17.6% 7.7% 4.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 38.0% 50.3% 39.6% 32.9% 14.7% 18.3% 8.5% 5.1% SHIPS-RII 41.7% 67.7% 54.0% 45.3% 33.7% 34.2% 19.4% 11.5%
AI-RI and DTOPS 42.4% 54.5% 47.2% 37.2% 31.9% 22.7% 10.1% 4.3% Logistic Regression 29.2% 42.5% 24.7% 19.0% 5.5% 9.7% 2.9% 0.6%
Bayesian 45.3% 54.2% 52.2% 40.1% 1.9% 8.9% 0.9% 0.0%
DTOPS 49.0% 72.0% 67.0% 47.0% 46.0% 25.0% 9.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Bonnie at 07/03/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 129 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 10.6% 30.2% 25.3% 21.3% 8.5% 14.7% 7.0% 15.0% SHIPS Consensus 8.6% 33.7% 23.7% 14.5% 6.8% 14.3% 9.4% 4.5%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 9.1% 32.8% 24.1% 16.2% 7.2% 14.4% 8.7% 7.1% SHIPS-RII 14.7% 56.3% 40.5% 26.2% 17.9% 32.6% 23.5% 12.3%
AI-RI and DTOPS 18.3% 43.1% 30.6% 19.6% 12.7% 23.3% 9.0% 8.0% Logistic Regression 7.3% 29.1% 14.4% 10.3% 2.2% 5.8% 3.8% 0.9%
Bayesian 3.9% 15.6% 16.4% 7.2% 0.3% 4.6% 0.8% 0.2%
DTOPS 26.0% 56.0% 36.0% 18.0% 17.0% 32.0% 11.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Bonnie at 07/03/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 121 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 20.6% 63.4% 28.0% 24.9% 13.5% 37.4% 21.2% 16.9% SHIPS Consensus 9.7% 39.5% 28.1% 18.6% 8.4% 25.1% 21.0% 6.9%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 12.4% 45.5% 28.0% 20.1% 9.6% 28.1% 21.0% 9.3% SHIPS-RII 14.0% 62.3% 46.6% 33.4% 21.6% 52.3% 49.2% 18.2%
AI-RI and DTOPS 20.8% 58.7% 35.0% 25.9% 17.7% 36.2% 19.6% 14.9% Logistic Regression 10.2% 41.1% 24.3% 16.7% 3.1% 14.8% 8.1% 2.2%
Bayesian 4.8% 15.2% 13.4% 5.5% 0.4% 8.3% 5.7% 0.3%
DTOPS 21.0% 54.0% 42.0% 27.0% 22.0% 35.0% 18.0% 13.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Bonnie at 07/03/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 120 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 25.4% 38.2% 15.1% 15.3% 11.6% 24.3% 22.9% 13.6% SHIPS Consensus 11.0% 33.1% 24.8% 17.0% 6.3% 26.9% 19.9% 7.4%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 14.6% 34.3% 22.3% 16.5% 7.6% 26.2% 20.6% 8.9% SHIPS-RII 13.7% 42.1% 33.9% 25.1% 14.6% 48.9% 40.6% 16.2%
AI-RI and DTOPS 23.2% 40.1% 26.0% 22.6% 15.3% 30.6% 19.9% 12.3% Logistic Regression 12.9% 39.0% 23.0% 16.8% 2.7% 22.4% 15.6% 5.7%
Bayesian 6.4% 18.1% 17.5% 9.0% 1.7% 9.4% 3.3% 0.4%
DTOPS 21.0% 42.0% 37.0% 30.0% 19.0% 37.0% 17.0% 11.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Bonnie at 07/02/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 133 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 10.8% 33.0% 29.0% 15.3% 10.9% 24.1% 30.1% 18.1% SHIPS Consensus 5.6% 20.2% 12.4% 10.2% 4.7% 15.1% 18.9% 8.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 6.9% 23.3% 16.5% 11.4% 6.2% 17.3% 21.7% 10.7% SHIPS-RII 10.6% 27.3% 22.1% 21.1% 12.3% 27.7% 37.6% 18.3%
AI-RI and DTOPS 8.4% 26.5% 20.0% 11.6% 8.4% 17.0% 24.5% 17.5% Logistic Regression 5.6% 29.2% 13.0% 8.5% 1.5% 15.7% 16.4% 6.0%
Bayesian 0.6% 4.0% 2.2% 1.0% 0.1% 1.8% 2.7% 0.4%
DTOPS 6.0% 20.0% 11.0% 8.0% 6.0% 10.0% 19.0% 17.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Bonnie at 07/02/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 148 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 13.9% 40.5% 32.6% 19.2% 4.3% 19.5% 13.4% 28.5% SHIPS Consensus 2.5% 16.5% 9.0% 2.4% 0.3% 3.5% 2.1% 1.4%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.3% 22.4% 14.8% 6.5% 1.2% 7.4% 4.9% 8.1% SHIPS-RII 4.6% 18.1% 15.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 2.8% 31.1% 11.4% 7.1% 0.8% 10.4% 6.3% 4.2%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------