Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index

 

current Darby intensity image current Darby RI diff image

 


Darby at 07/16/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 82 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.6% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Darby at 07/16/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 79 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.7% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% N/A SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Darby at 07/16/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 75 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Darby at 07/16/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 69 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Darby at 07/15/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 66 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Darby at 07/15/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 64 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Darby at 07/15/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 62 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Darby at 07/15/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 62 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Darby at 07/14/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 67 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Darby at 07/14/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 69 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Darby at 07/14/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 71 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Darby at 07/14/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 71 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.8% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Darby at 07/13/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 74 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 4.6% 5.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.0% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 10.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 5.3% 2.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.9% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Darby at 07/13/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 77 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.9% 4.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.0% 4.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.4% 4.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 8.5% 12.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.4% 2.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Darby at 07/13/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 81 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.7% 0.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.8% 3.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 2.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 5.1% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Darby at 07/13/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 85 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Darby at 07/12/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 93 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.8% 2.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.9% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Darby at 07/12/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 97 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.1% 3.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.5% 1.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.4% 0.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Darby at 07/12/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 120 kts, MPI = 97 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.3% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.2% 0.7% 0.9% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Darby at 07/12/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 120 kts, MPI = 107 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.4% 1.9% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.6% 0.7% 1.0% 0.4% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.7% 1.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 3.7% 0.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 4.8% 2.1% 3.0% 1.2% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Darby at 07/11/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 115 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 31.9% 4.7% 3.1% 1.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 21.4% 5.4% 8.3% 5.2% 4.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 24.0% 5.2% 6.9% 4.1% 3.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 21.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 25.4% 3.3% 2.0% 1.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 41.8% 16.1% 24.8% 15.5% 12.6% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 19.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Darby at 07/11/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 131 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 27.1% 12.3% 4.9% 5.3% 1.2% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 43.6% 25.5% 18.6% 15.5% 9.9% 2.7% 0.1% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 39.4% 22.1% 15.1% 12.9% 7.7% 2.2% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 57.9% 36.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 43.0% 17.1% 9.4% 6.6% 4.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 72.3% 40.0% 55.8% 46.5% 29.7% 8.2% 0.4% 0.2%
Bayesian 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 59.0% 22.0% 14.0% 8.0% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Darby at 07/11/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 111 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 4.3% 20.0% 18.9% 8.0% 2.6% 4.4% 0.3% 0.4% SHIPS Consensus 22.2% 21.5% 21.7% 15.1% 10.1% 8.3% 0.1% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 17.6% 21.1% 20.9% 13.3% 8.1% 7.2% 0.1% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 41.9% 37.6% 37.4% 28.3% 23.7% 20.4% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 19.1% 26.5% 19.9% 11.5% 6.8% 3.7% 0.1% 0.2% Logistic Regression 23.6% 25.9% 27.3% 17.0% 6.3% 4.4% 0.3% 0.2%
Bayesian 0.9% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 34.0% 33.0% 21.0% 15.0% 11.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Darby at 07/11/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 124 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 16.4% 32.0% 28.0% 18.6% 14.0% 21.7% 3.7% 1.9% SHIPS Consensus 17.5% 27.9% 23.1% 16.0% 10.5% 9.6% 5.4% 0.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 17.1% 28.9% 24.3% 16.6% 11.3% 12.6% 4.9% 0.6% SHIPS-RII 27.8% 47.1% 41.6% 31.7% 25.4% 24.1% 15.6% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 19.7% 38.0% 30.5% 19.8% 17.0% 19.8% 3.8% 0.9% Logistic Regression 21.7% 32.4% 26.4% 15.6% 5.8% 4.4% 0.5% 0.5%
Bayesian 2.8% 4.3% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 23.0% 44.0% 33.0% 21.0% 20.0% 18.0% 4.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Darby at 07/10/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 131 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 13.7% 33.6% 30.0% 18.9% 11.4% 21.3% 5.8% 8.7% SHIPS Consensus 14.0% 23.3% 17.2% 11.8% 6.4% 9.7% 5.8% 0.5%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 13.9% 25.8% 20.3% 13.5% 7.6% 12.6% 5.7% 2.5% SHIPS-RII 25.4% 42.0% 34.5% 25.0% 16.4% 24.8% 15.8% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 19.8% 34.3% 28.0% 19.4% 12.2% 18.6% 5.9% 4.3% Logistic Regression 14.0% 24.0% 16.1% 9.9% 2.6% 4.1% 1.4% 1.6%
Bayesian 2.7% 3.9% 0.9% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 26.0% 35.0% 26.0% 20.0% 13.0% 16.0% 6.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Darby at 07/10/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 140 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 5.3% 27.5% 20.7% 11.8% 7.1% 14.9% 2.5% 11.6% SHIPS Consensus 8.0% 16.8% 11.2% 9.2% 4.9% 7.8% 5.9% 4.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 7.3% 19.4% 13.5% 9.8% 5.4% 9.6% 5.0% 5.8% SHIPS-RII 14.1% 28.5% 23.3% 22.5% 13.6% 20.4% 15.5% 9.5%
AI-RI and DTOPS 8.1% 24.2% 17.3% 11.4% 7.5% 12.4% 4.2% 5.8% Logistic Regression 7.7% 13.4% 7.9% 4.3% 0.8% 2.7% 2.1% 2.4%
Bayesian 2.3% 8.5% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
DTOPS 11.0% 21.0% 14.0% 11.0% 8.0% 10.0% 6.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Darby at 07/10/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 140 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.9% 18.7% 12.9% 4.5% 2.2% 3.3% 4.2% 9.9% SHIPS Consensus 5.0% 14.1% 10.3% 8.7% 4.5% 7.8% 5.9% 4.5%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.2% 15.2% 10.9% 7.6% 3.9% 6.6% 5.4% 5.8% SHIPS-RII 10.7% 24.0% 21.5% 20.6% 12.6% 19.0% 16.0% 11.7%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.9% 14.8% 8.9% 3.7% 2.1% 3.6% 4.6% 6.4% Logistic Regression 4.2% 15.8% 8.7% 5.3% 1.0% 4.2% 1.4% 1.8%
Bayesian 0.2% 2.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 11.0% 5.0% 3.0% 2.0% 4.0% 5.0% 3.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Darby at 07/10/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 142 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.3% 29.2% 16.8% 11.0% 3.5% 4.4% 22.5% 28.8% SHIPS Consensus 9.5% 29.1% 19.5% 14.9% 6.7% 17.7% 13.1% 7.5%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 7.4% 29.1% 18.8% 13.8% 5.9% 14.3% 15.4% 12.8% SHIPS-RII 14.3% 44.9% 31.6% 24.0% 14.8% 30.1% 28.8% 13.3%
AI-RI and DTOPS 5.6% 26.1% 15.9% 11.0% 5.7% 9.2% 20.7% 22.4% Logistic Regression 14.0% 36.6% 25.7% 20.1% 4.9% 20.6% 10.1% 9.2%
Bayesian 0.3% 5.7% 1.3% 0.4% 0.4% 2.3% 0.5% 0.0%
DTOPS 10.0% 23.0% 15.0% 11.0% 8.0% 14.0% 19.0% 16.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Darby at 07/09/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 143 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 30.3% 53.1% 44.8% 23.0% 15.7% 30.5% 31.9% 45.5% SHIPS Consensus 25.3% 58.0% 33.0% 28.6% 18.2% 35.4% 15.4% 11.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 26.5% 56.7% 35.9% 27.2% 17.5% 34.1% 19.5% 19.7% SHIPS-RII 13.4% 35.3% 22.8% 21.5% 13.3% 25.8% 26.0% 15.3%
AI-RI and DTOPS 18.1% 36.5% 28.4% 16.0% 10.3% 21.2% 23.9% 36.7% Logistic Regression 58.1% 78.0% 65.6% 59.5% 36.7% 59.8% 14.6% 18.2%
Bayesian 4.4% 60.6% 10.5% 5.0% 4.5% 20.5% 5.7% 0.0%
DTOPS 6.0% 20.0% 12.0% 9.0% 5.0% 12.0% 16.0% 28.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------