Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index

 

current Five intensity image current Five RI diff image

 


Dora at 08/11/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 137 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS Consensus 4.0% 0.5% 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 9.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 2.2% 1.5% 1.7% 1.4% 0.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Dora at 08/11/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 136 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 1.8% 1.4% 1.8% 1.8% 0.6% 0.8% 0.5% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Dora at 08/11/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 121 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS Consensus 2.4% 1.6% 2.6% 2.8% 1.4% 0.9% 0.5% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 7.0% 4.3% 7.8% 8.5% 4.1% 2.7% 1.5% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 5.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Dora at 08/11/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 122 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS Consensus 6.2% 1.5% 2.2% 2.4% 1.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 13.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 5.0% 4.0% 6.6% 7.1% 3.4% 2.7% 0.6% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Dora at 08/10/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 120 kts, MPI = 103 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.9% 0.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 3.4% 2.8% 5.0% 6.0% 3.4% 1.8% 0.4% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.7% 2.1% 3.9% 4.5% 2.8% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 10.0% 8.1% 14.9% 18.1% 10.3% 5.3% 1.2% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Dora at 08/10/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 125 kts, MPI = 106 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.2% 0.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 3.1% 1.6% 2.7% 3.1% 1.4% 1.4% 0.9% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.6% 1.2% 2.1% 2.3% 1.2% 1.1% 0.6% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.6% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 8.5% 4.3% 8.0% 9.2% 4.3% 4.2% 2.6% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Dora at 08/09/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 98 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 6.7% 2.5% 1.3% 1.1% 2.0% 1.4% 0.1% 0.3% SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 0.8% 0.9% 1.0% 0.6% 0.6% 0.7% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.4% 1.2% 1.0% 1.0% 0.9% 0.8% 0.5% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 5.8% 1.7% 0.6% 1.0% 1.5% 0.7% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 3.0% 2.1% 2.8% 2.9% 1.8% 1.9% 2.1% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 5.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Dora at 08/09/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 101 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.4% 1.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 0.6% 0.5% 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 0.7% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.6% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.7% 1.3% 1.2% 1.2% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Dora at 08/09/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 91 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.9% 3.0% 0.9% 0.5% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 0.9% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 0.7% 0.5% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 1.4% 1.1% 1.0% 1.0% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.9% 2.0% 0.4% 0.7% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 2.1% 2.6% 3.5% 3.6% 3.5% 2.0% 1.6% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Dora at 08/09/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 91 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 8.4% 5.8% 1.6% 0.8% 0.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 0.6% 1.1% 0.8% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.6% 1.9% 1.2% 0.8% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 5.2% 2.9% 0.8% 0.9% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 2.3% 1.9% 3.2% 2.5% 1.7% 1.6% 1.5% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Dora at 08/08/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 85 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.8% 2.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 0.6% 0.9% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 1.1% 0.7% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.4% 1.8% 0.2% 0.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.6% 1.9% 2.6% 1.9% 1.5% 1.1% 0.6% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Dora at 08/08/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 89 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.9% 2.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 0.7% 1.2% 0.8% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 1.1% 1.1% 0.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.4% 1.6% 0.3% 0.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.7% 2.1% 3.7% 2.5% 1.3% 1.1% 0.6% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Dora at 08/08/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 89 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.4% 1.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 0.4% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 0.7% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.2% 3.4% 1.3% 0.5% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 1.4% 1.0% 2.4% 1.3% 0.5% 0.7% 0.8% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Dora at 08/08/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 94 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 8.3% 3.8% 1.5% 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 0.4% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.4% 1.2% 1.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 5.1% 2.9% 1.2% 0.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.5% 1.1% 2.9% 1.3% 0.5% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Dora at 08/07/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 102 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 0.8% 0.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.5% 0.5% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Dora at 08/07/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 90 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 0.7% 2.0% 0.9% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 0.6% 1.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.0% 2.2% 5.9% 2.7% 1.2% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Dora at 08/07/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 120 kts, MPI = 93 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.7% 2.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.3% 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.8% 1.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.6% 0.5% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Dora at 08/07/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 120 kts, MPI = 86 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.7% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.7% 0.6% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Dora at 08/06/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 120 kts, MPI = 87 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.3% 0.5% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Dora at 08/06/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 120 kts, MPI = 87 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.5% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.7% 1.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Dora at 08/06/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 125 kts, MPI = 84 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 0.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.1% 1.0% 1.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Dora at 08/06/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 125 kts, MPI = 81 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 3.3% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.2% 1.0% 1.9% 1.2% 0.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.4% 1.0% 1.5% 0.9% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 3.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 6.1% 3.1% 5.8% 3.5% 0.6% 1.4% 0.6% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Dora at 08/05/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 88 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.6% 5.4% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.9% 1.6% 2.1% 1.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.8% 2.5% 1.8% 1.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 4.3% 6.7% 2.0% 1.1% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 5.4% 4.7% 6.3% 3.9% 0.9% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 7.0% 8.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Dora at 08/05/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 92 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 8.9% 19.2% 2.6% 0.9% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 6.0% 8.9% 8.0% 1.8% 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 6.7% 11.5% 6.6% 1.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 12.7% 16.6% 14.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 7.9% 11.1% 1.8% 1.9% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 5.1% 10.1% 10.1% 5.4% 1.7% 1.4% 0.2% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 7.0% 3.0% 1.0% 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Dora at 08/05/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 91 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.8% 9.7% 1.5% 0.3% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 3.0% 5.4% 4.3% 3.1% 2.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.9% 6.4% 3.6% 2.3% 1.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 8.3% 14.0% 11.6% 8.7% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.4% 5.3% 0.7% 1.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.5% 2.2% 1.3% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Dora at 08/05/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 87 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.3% 4.8% 1.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 2.6% 4.8% 3.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.2% 4.8% 3.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 7.2% 12.8% 10.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.1% 3.9% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.4% 1.7% 0.9% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Dora at 08/04/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 79 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.2% 6.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 2.3% 4.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.2% 4.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 6.3% 10.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.1% 5.4% 1.3% 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.5% 1.8% 1.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Dora at 08/04/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 102 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 3.6% 4.6% 1.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 1.7% 3.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.2% 3.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 4.7% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.3% 2.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.5% 1.3% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Dora at 08/04/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 114 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 2.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 4.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.0% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 10.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.1% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.9% 2.3% 1.9% 1.0% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Dora at 08/04/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 120 kts, MPI = 99 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 5.5% 4.0% 1.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.2% 1.7% 1.4% 0.9% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.0% 2.2% 1.4% 0.7% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 3.7% 2.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 6.3% 5.1% 4.3% 2.6% 3.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Dora at 08/03/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 125 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 9.7% 7.9% 2.3% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.0% 4.4% 3.7% 2.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.7% 5.3% 3.3% 2.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 8.3% 12.2% 10.4% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 6.3% 3.9% 1.1% 1.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.8% 1.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Dora at 08/03/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 110 kts, MPI = 123 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.9% 3.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.8% 4.5% 4.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.5% 4.2% 3.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 10.0% 12.1% 11.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.4% 1.7% 0.3% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.3% 1.3% 0.9% 0.4% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Dora at 08/03/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 137 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.4% 1.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 6.8% 5.7% 0.7% 0.4% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.2% 4.5% 0.6% 0.3% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 15.0% 14.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 5.5% 2.4% 2.2% 1.3% 3.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Dora at 08/03/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 110 kts, MPI = 144 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 12.4% 7.7% 4.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 6.7% 7.2% 4.6% 0.4% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 8.1% 7.3% 4.4% 0.5% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 14.4% 19.1% 11.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 14.2% 8.3% 5.0% 2.5% 2.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 5.4% 2.6% 2.3% 1.3% 3.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 16.0% 9.0% 6.0% 4.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Dora at 08/02/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 146 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 12.3% 25.9% 24.3% 14.5% 6.4% 6.8% 1.3% 0.5% SHIPS Consensus 6.3% 7.4% 6.5% 5.6% 4.6% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 7.8% 12.0% 10.9% 7.8% 5.0% 5.4% 0.3% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 14.8% 18.6% 17.4% 15.7% 11.6% 14.9% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 20.1% 44.9% 37.1% 16.2% 12.7% 4.9% 0.6% 0.2% Logistic Regression 4.0% 3.3% 2.2% 1.2% 2.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 28.0% 64.0% 50.0% 18.0% 19.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Dora at 08/02/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 150 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 34.6% 37.1% 29.1% 28.4% 16.8% 7.0% 0.7% 0.3% SHIPS Consensus 28.1% 14.7% 12.1% 10.1% 8.8% 6.5% 0.1% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 29.7% 20.3% 16.3% 14.6% 10.7% 6.6% 0.2% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 48.4% 27.3% 23.4% 21.5% 14.9% 18.8% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 42.8% 52.5% 48.0% 33.7% 24.9% 6.5% 0.3% 0.1% Logistic Regression 31.4% 14.7% 12.9% 8.6% 11.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.4%
Bayesian 4.4% 2.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 51.0% 68.0% 67.0% 39.0% 33.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Dora at 08/02/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 147 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 8.4% 28.6% 26.8% 13.4% 9.0% 8.6% 1.6% 1.4% SHIPS Consensus 24.9% 16.7% 14.1% 12.6% 9.1% 7.3% 0.1% 0.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 20.8% 19.7% 17.2% 12.8% 9.0% 7.6% 0.4% 0.5% SHIPS-RII 49.9% 31.2% 30.2% 30.1% 21.5% 21.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 31.7% 45.3% 44.9% 27.2% 18.5% 15.8% 1.8% 0.7% Logistic Regression 21.7% 15.7% 11.9% 7.7% 5.5% 0.9% 0.3% 0.7%
Bayesian 3.2% 3.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 55.0% 62.0% 63.0% 41.0% 28.0% 23.0% 2.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Dora at 08/02/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 148 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 18.5% 42.6% 45.3% 34.5% 22.7% 23.9% 8.0% 6.6% SHIPS Consensus 37.1% 42.6% 34.6% 30.8% 27.4% 15.0% 0.3% 1.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 32.4% 42.6% 37.2% 31.6% 26.2% 17.2% 2.2% 2.5% SHIPS-RII 67.2% 70.5% 68.3% 67.3% 56.2% 39.9% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 39.2% 55.8% 52.6% 40.7% 25.8% 39.4% 19.5% 4.3% Logistic Regression 40.8% 43.1% 34.2% 24.4% 24.0% 4.5% 0.8% 3.6%
Bayesian 3.3% 14.3% 1.3% 0.6% 2.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 60.0% 69.0% 60.0% 47.0% 29.0% 55.0% 31.0% 2.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Dora at 08/01/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 152 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 41.1% 53.8% 57.1% 41.9% 24.6% 39.9% 29.9% 14.4% SHIPS Consensus 43.8% 63.6% 45.3% 39.1% 31.5% 29.2% 17.1% 6.5%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 43.1% 61.1% 48.2% 39.8% 29.7% 31.8% 20.3% 8.4% SHIPS-RII 58.6% 77.3% 76.2% 74.1% 54.3% 68.1% 45.9% 10.8%
AI-RI and DTOPS 50.0% 66.4% 66.0% 57.4% 41.8% 56.9% 42.9% 18.7% Logistic Regression 53.8% 62.6% 52.9% 39.6% 28.7% 15.5% 5.1% 8.6%
Bayesian 19.0% 50.8% 6.8% 3.6% 11.5% 4.0% 0.5% 0.0%
DTOPS 59.0% 79.0% 75.0% 73.0% 59.0% 74.0% 56.0% 23.0%
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Dora at 08/01/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 158 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 10.6% 21.2% 27.1% 16.4% 13.7% 12.5% 21.8% 13.1% SHIPS Consensus 19.2% 43.7% 27.0% 19.5% 12.3% 20.3% 19.9% 14.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 17.0% 38.0% 27.0% 18.6% 12.6% 18.3% 20.3% 13.9% SHIPS-RII 29.8% 49.2% 41.2% 34.4% 20.2% 42.6% 52.8% 31.4%
AI-RI and DTOPS 18.3% 46.6% 43.0% 30.7% 24.3% 41.2% 47.4% 28.0% Logistic Regression 23.0% 51.0% 37.2% 23.2% 12.9% 15.0% 5.0% 11.3%
Bayesian 4.8% 30.9% 2.7% 0.8% 3.8% 3.2% 1.9% 0.0%
DTOPS 26.0% 72.0% 59.0% 45.0% 35.0% 70.0% 73.0% 43.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Dora at 08/01/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 164 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 4.8% 22.6% 20.0% 13.7% 2.6% 6.0% 6.4% 8.9% SHIPS Consensus 7.6% 27.5% 17.0% 11.1% 8.0% 13.7% 9.7% 9.6%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 6.9% 26.2% 17.7% 11.7% 6.6% 11.7% 8.9% 9.4% SHIPS-RII 14.3% 36.5% 28.8% 20.2% 13.6% 25.3% 26.5% 24.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 4.4% 28.3% 20.5% 13.8% 6.3% 14.5% 19.2% 44.9% Logistic Regression 8.4% 37.6% 21.4% 12.8% 9.7% 15.6% 2.3% 4.7%
Bayesian 0.1% 8.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
DTOPS 4.0% 34.0% 21.0% 14.0% 10.0% 23.0% 32.0% 81.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Five at 08/01/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 151 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.9% 1.0% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 21.7% 41.8% SHIPS Consensus 6.0% 26.6% 15.0% 9.7% 3.4% 15.2% 16.0% 19.6%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.4% 20.1% 11.5% 7.5% 2.5% 11.4% 17.4% 25.1% SHIPS-RII 13.0% 36.0% 25.6% 18.6% 0.0% 24.1% 24.6% 35.6%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.5% 14.9% 7.5% 4.9% 3.0% 11.5% 32.3% 63.4% Logistic Regression 4.9% 33.7% 18.4% 10.3% 9.6% 19.6% 22.3% 22.6%
Bayesian 0.0% 10.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.5% 1.9% 1.0% 0.6%
DTOPS 3.0% 29.0% 14.0% 9.0% 6.0% 23.0% 43.0% 85.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Five at 07/31/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 153 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 21.1% 16.7% 3.4% 5.8% 4.9% 0.0% 0.8% SHIPS Consensus 5.0% 18.6% 9.3% 6.6% 1.0% 10.6% 11.9% 13.4%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.7% 19.2% 11.1% 5.8% 2.2% 9.2% 8.9% 10.2% SHIPS-RII 11.7% 22.5% 19.1% 16.6% 0.0% 23.3% 20.2% 20.7%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.0% 15.0% 11.3% 3.7% 3.9% 5.4% 5.0% 6.9% Logistic Regression 3.1% 16.7% 7.4% 2.9% 2.7% 7.0% 13.5% 19.2%
Bayesian 0.3% 16.6% 1.2% 0.3% 0.3% 1.6% 1.9% 0.3%
DTOPS 2.0% 9.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 6.0% 10.0% 13.0%
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