Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index

 

current Six intensity image current Six RI diff image

 


Estelle at 07/21/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 0 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.7% SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% SHIPS-RII 2.4% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Estelle at 07/21/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 0 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.3% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% SHIPS-RII 1.5% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Estelle at 07/21/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 0 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.7% SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% SHIPS-RII 1.6% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Estelle at 07/21/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 0 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% SHIPS-RII 1.8% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Estelle at 07/20/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 0 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 3.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.1% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 4.6% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Estelle at 07/20/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 17 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.7% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.2% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 5.1% 10.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Estelle at 07/20/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 35 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.4% 4.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.7% 3.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 7.0% 13.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Estelle at 07/20/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 53 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.9% 6.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.9% 5.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 11.1% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.5% 0.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Estelle at 07/19/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 74 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.8% 7.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.9% 5.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 10.4% 19.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.9% 1.8% 1.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Estelle at 07/19/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 88 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.8% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.3% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 5.2% 14.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Estelle at 07/19/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 92 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 2.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 4.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 4.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 2.6% 13.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.6% 1.5% 0.2% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Estelle at 07/19/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 104 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.2% 4.3% 1.9% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.1% 6.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.6% 5.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 9.1% 17.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 3.6% 5.1% 2.9% 2.6% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.4% 1.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 6.0% 6.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Estelle at 07/18/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 98 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.8% 7.2% 2.8% 1.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.0% 5.2% 4.8% 4.3% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.7% 5.7% 4.2% 3.5% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 8.7% 14.5% 13.9% 12.8% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 3.4% 6.1% 4.4% 4.1% 3.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.4% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 5.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Estelle at 07/18/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 113 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 5.1% 11.5% 2.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.5% 6.0% 5.2% 4.7% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.9% 7.3% 4.6% 3.6% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 10.1% 16.7% 15.1% 14.1% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 5.5% 7.7% 3.4% 2.8% 2.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.4% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 6.0% 4.0% 4.0% 5.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Estelle at 07/18/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 100 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.6% 6.3% 2.1% 0.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.3% 5.9% 5.3% 5.0% 3.1% 3.8% 2.7% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.0% 5.9% 4.4% 3.8% 2.4% 2.9% 2.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 9.4% 16.4% 15.5% 14.7% 9.1% 11.3% 8.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 4.3% 8.1% 4.5% 3.7% 3.8% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.3% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 6.0% 10.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Estelle at 07/18/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 127 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 12.7% 33.1% 15.8% 7.9% 4.1% 3.7% 0.5% 0.3% SHIPS Consensus 4.4% 8.0% 6.6% 6.2% 3.8% 4.6% 3.3% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 6.4% 14.2% 8.8% 6.6% 3.8% 4.3% 2.6% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 12.4% 22.2% 19.2% 18.3% 11.3% 13.6% 9.8% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 14.3% 32.5% 19.4% 11.4% 9.5% 5.8% 0.7% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.6% 1.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 16.0% 32.0% 23.0% 15.0% 15.0% 8.0% 1.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Estelle at 07/17/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 134 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 32.7% 49.2% 35.5% 12.1% 12.0% 6.0% 1.9% 0.4% SHIPS Consensus 6.3% 10.2% 7.4% 6.7% 4.0% 4.6% 3.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 12.8% 19.9% 14.4% 8.0% 6.0% 4.9% 2.7% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 14.3% 23.7% 19.8% 18.9% 11.6% 13.5% 8.9% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 29.3% 45.6% 36.7% 19.0% 18.5% 6.5% 0.9% 0.2% Logistic Regression 3.3% 6.2% 1.9% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian 1.2% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 26.0% 42.0% 38.0% 26.0% 25.0% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Estelle at 07/17/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 140 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 36.7% 57.3% 41.8% 22.0% 11.7% 22.4% 1.0% 0.4% SHIPS Consensus 8.2% 13.1% 8.7% 7.5% 4.3% 5.3% 3.3% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 15.3% 24.1% 17.0% 11.1% 6.1% 9.6% 2.7% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 14.1% 23.7% 20.2% 19.5% 11.8% 15.5% 9.8% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 33.8% 49.6% 39.9% 25.0% 17.3% 15.7% 0.5% 0.2% Logistic Regression 4.6% 9.3% 2.9% 1.6% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%
Bayesian 5.9% 6.4% 3.1% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 31.0% 42.0% 38.0% 28.0% 23.0% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Estelle at 07/17/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 142 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 32.5% 57.6% 44.5% 26.9% 23.4% 8.3% 6.4% 0.8% SHIPS Consensus 19.6% 26.1% 16.0% 11.0% 5.8% 7.0% 4.6% 2.7%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 22.7% 33.9% 23.1% 15.0% 10.1% 7.3% 5.0% 2.2% SHIPS-RII 32.3% 47.8% 28.4% 23.6% 14.4% 19.1% 13.2% 8.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 46.7% 64.8% 52.2% 38.4% 28.7% 21.1% 5.7% 0.4% Logistic Regression 9.1% 16.6% 6.5% 4.2% 2.0% 1.3% 0.7% 0.2%
Bayesian 17.2% 13.9% 13.1% 5.3% 0.9% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 61.0% 72.0% 60.0% 50.0% 34.0% 34.0% 5.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Estelle at 07/17/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 139 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 50.2% 69.2% 63.0% 50.8% 52.8% 46.7% 8.3% 1.9% SHIPS Consensus 27.9% 41.6% 28.7% 19.1% 11.5% 11.4% 5.7% 3.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 33.4% 48.4% 37.3% 27.0% 21.8% 20.2% 6.3% 2.8% SHIPS-RII 45.4% 66.5% 47.8% 35.9% 24.6% 26.4% 15.5% 9.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 49.1% 78.1% 69.0% 54.4% 48.9% 50.8% 11.6% 0.9% Logistic Regression 19.3% 34.1% 16.0% 12.2% 6.6% 5.3% 1.5% 0.4%
Bayesian 18.9% 24.0% 22.5% 9.2% 3.3% 2.4% 0.1% 0.0%
DTOPS 48.0% 87.0% 75.0% 58.0% 45.0% 55.0% 15.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Estelle at 07/16/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 142 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 32.5% 63.4% 48.1% 43.9% 37.4% 49.6% 18.4% 6.0% SHIPS Consensus 35.5% 49.0% 35.9% 25.2% 15.3% 17.2% 7.0% 3.8%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 34.7% 52.6% 38.9% 29.8% 20.7% 25.3% 9.8% 4.3% SHIPS-RII 41.1% 70.1% 53.2% 43.9% 28.9% 36.7% 17.2% 10.6%
AI-RI and DTOPS 40.2% 73.7% 59.5% 45.9% 35.2% 57.3% 29.2% 4.5% Logistic Regression 22.8% 41.2% 19.7% 15.1% 8.2% 8.5% 3.3% 0.9%
Bayesian 42.5% 35.7% 34.8% 16.6% 8.7% 6.4% 0.4% 0.0%
DTOPS 48.0% 84.0% 71.0% 48.0% 33.0% 65.0% 40.0% 3.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Estelle at 07/16/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 145 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 30.9% 67.5% 60.2% 47.9% 38.7% 50.8% 28.2% 8.2% SHIPS Consensus 31.4% 47.6% 41.7% 30.6% 17.3% 22.3% 16.5% 4.9%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 31.2% 52.5% 46.3% 34.9% 22.6% 29.4% 19.4% 5.7% SHIPS-RII 35.3% 68.5% 58.1% 50.7% 29.5% 50.5% 38.0% 12.5%
AI-RI and DTOPS 41.4% 71.7% 63.1% 49.4% 33.8% 58.4% 42.6% 5.6% Logistic Regression 15.1% 36.5% 20.9% 14.9% 10.5% 9.9% 10.5% 2.2%
Bayesian 43.8% 37.8% 46.1% 26.2% 11.9% 6.4% 1.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 52.0% 76.0% 66.0% 51.0% 29.0% 66.0% 57.0% 3.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Estelle at 07/16/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 142 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 10.3% 40.0% 30.1% 31.6% 10.7% 26.3% 16.5% 24.3% SHIPS Consensus 11.9% 37.4% 28.7% 17.7% 9.2% 22.0% 23.2% 9.9%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 11.5% 38.0% 29.1% 21.1% 9.5% 23.0% 21.5% 13.5% SHIPS-RII 17.2% 63.8% 48.1% 36.1% 20.9% 51.8% 54.4% 25.5%
AI-RI and DTOPS 15.6% 55.0% 41.0% 35.3% 14.8% 40.6% 34.7% 27.1% Logistic Regression 5.5% 27.0% 14.5% 9.6% 4.9% 11.3% 14.0% 4.1%
Bayesian 13.1% 21.4% 23.7% 7.4% 1.7% 3.0% 1.1% 0.1%
DTOPS 21.0% 70.0% 52.0% 39.0% 19.0% 55.0% 53.0% 30.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Six at 07/16/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 143 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 6.6% 33.1% 25.1% 14.8% 10.4% 23.8% 13.4% 17.2% SHIPS Consensus 10.7% 36.2% 24.7% 15.8% 7.6% 19.2% 22.7% 13.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 9.6% 35.4% 24.8% 15.5% 8.3% 20.3% 20.3% 14.0% SHIPS-RII 11.5% 37.4% 22.8% 21.6% 12.9% 26.2% 37.9% 32.5%
AI-RI and DTOPS 6.8% 45.0% 29.0% 18.9% 11.7% 28.9% 33.7% 22.1% Logistic Regression 11.3% 44.0% 23.0% 16.1% 8.9% 27.6% 28.5% 6.2%
Bayesian 9.2% 27.3% 28.4% 9.8% 1.0% 3.9% 1.6% 0.4%
DTOPS 7.0% 57.0% 33.0% 23.0% 13.0% 34.0% 54.0% 27.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Six at 07/15/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 147 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 4.9% 34.6% 23.3% 11.2% 6.4% 18.2% 19.9% 24.0% SHIPS Consensus 5.8% 23.7% 14.6% 9.9% 1.2% 14.4% 23.0% 15.8%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.5% 26.4% 16.8% 10.2% 2.4% 15.3% 22.2% 17.8% SHIPS-RII 10.2% 27.8% 21.0% 19.7% 0.0% 21.0% 37.4% 39.4%
AI-RI and DTOPS 3.9% 32.8% 18.6% 10.6% 6.7% 21.1% 24.4% 28.0% Logistic Regression 4.2% 25.9% 12.0% 7.1% 3.1% 18.1% 29.8% 7.3%
Bayesian 2.9% 17.5% 10.9% 3.0% 0.4% 4.3% 2.0% 0.7%
DTOPS 3.0% 32.0% 15.0% 10.0% 7.0% 24.0% 28.0% 33.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Six at 07/15/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 154 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 4.9% 34.6% 10.9% 4.5% 6.4% 14.8% 19.6% 34.0% SHIPS Consensus 5.8% 23.7% 14.6% 9.9% 1.2% 14.4% 20.5% 15.8%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.5% 26.4% 16.8% 10.2% 2.4% 9.9% 20.2% 25.1% SHIPS-RII 10.2% 27.8% 21.0% 17.1% 0.0% 21.0% 28.2% 39.4%
AI-RI and DTOPS 3.5% 32.8% 18.6% 10.6% 6.7% 14.9% 20.3% 33.5% Logistic Regression 1.3% 25.9% 12.0% 2.1% 3.1% 18.1% 30.4% 7.3%
Bayesian 0.9% 17.5% 10.9% 0.2% 0.4% 0.5% 2.9% 0.7%
DTOPS 3.0% 23.0% 14.0% 7.0% 7.0% 15.0% 29.0% 32.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Six at 07/15/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 154 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 5.1% 15.7% 10.9% 4.5% 4.4% 14.8% 19.6% 34.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.2% 12.0% 7.9% 6.5% 0.3% 8.4% 20.5% 22.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.7% 12.9% 8.6% 5.9% 1.3% 9.9% 20.2% 25.1% SHIPS-RII 7.6% 21.6% 18.3% 17.1% 0.0% 18.7% 28.2% 46.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 3.5% 19.3% 11.9% 5.7% 5.2% 14.9% 20.3% 33.5% Logistic Regression 1.3% 10.8% 4.4% 2.1% 0.8% 5.9% 30.4% 14.8%
Bayesian 0.9% 3.6% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.5% 2.9% 5.8%
DTOPS 2.0% 23.0% 13.0% 7.0% 6.0% 15.0% 21.0% 33.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------