Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index

 

current Six intensity image current Six RI diff image

 


Eugene at 08/07/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 0 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Eugene at 08/07/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 0 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Eugene at 08/07/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 0 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Eugene at 08/07/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 39 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.6% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Eugene at 08/06/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 119 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.5% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.3% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.5% 3.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 9.9% 12.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.5% 0.2% 0.3% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Eugene at 08/06/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 152 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.8% 3.6% 2.2% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 4.8% 6.1% 5.4% 4.6% 3.1% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.3% 5.5% 4.6% 3.7% 2.3% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 13.9% 18.1% 16.0% 13.9% 9.3% 13.9% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 5.9% 3.3% 2.1% 2.5% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 9.0% 3.0% 2.0% 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Eugene at 08/06/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 154 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 3.8% 5.6% 2.9% 1.5% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 6.6% 8.6% 7.1% 5.9% 3.8% 6.3% 3.7% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.9% 7.8% 6.0% 4.8% 3.0% 4.7% 2.7% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 15.5% 23.2% 19.8% 17.4% 11.1% 18.9% 11.1% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 9.4% 9.3% 8.9% 7.7% 5.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 4.0% 2.4% 1.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 15.0% 13.0% 15.0% 14.0% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Eugene at 08/06/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 152 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 15.1% 17.6% 5.3% 4.1% 4.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 9.8% 13.7% 8.8% 6.4% 3.9% 6.5% 4.5% 1.5%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 11.1% 14.7% 7.9% 5.8% 3.9% 5.1% 3.5% 1.1% SHIPS-RII 14.4% 23.6% 19.4% 16.7% 10.8% 19.1% 13.6% 4.5%
AI-RI and DTOPS 13.0% 17.8% 9.6% 7.5% 5.5% 1.0% 0.7% 0.0% Logistic Regression 14.5% 15.0% 7.0% 2.4% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.7% 2.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 11.0% 18.0% 14.0% 11.0% 7.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0%
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Six at 08/05/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 156 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 7.4% 15.5% 5.0% 1.9% 1.1% 2.1% 2.9% 0.4% SHIPS Consensus 6.4% 14.5% 8.0% 5.6% 3.5% 6.4% 4.6% 2.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 6.6% 14.7% 7.2% 4.6% 2.9% 5.3% 4.1% 1.6% SHIPS-RII 11.8% 22.2% 17.5% 14.5% 9.6% 18.3% 13.8% 6.1%
AI-RI and DTOPS 6.7% 21.2% 11.5% 4.4% 2.5% 9.5% 3.4% 0.2% Logistic Regression 7.3% 17.2% 6.1% 2.1% 0.8% 0.7% 0.0% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.2% 4.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 6.0% 27.0% 18.0% 7.0% 4.0% 17.0% 4.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Six at 08/05/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 165 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 6.8% 40.1% 20.2% 5.9% 2.2% 15.5% 12.6% 1.3% SHIPS Consensus 6.9% 17.8% 8.4% 5.5% 0.5% 6.6% 4.4% 2.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 6.8% 23.3% 11.3% 5.6% 0.9% 8.8% 6.4% 1.9% SHIPS-RII 10.1% 19.0% 15.2% 12.2% 0.0% 16.6% 12.9% 6.3%
AI-RI and DTOPS 3.9% 28.0% 13.1% 4.4% 2.1% 10.7% 7.3% 1.1% Logistic Regression 10.3% 29.4% 10.0% 4.3% 1.4% 3.1% 0.2% 0.2%
Bayesian 0.1% 5.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 16.0% 6.0% 3.0% 2.0% 6.0% 2.0% 1.0%
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